Analyzing the candidates for the last bullpen spot down the stretch

[Cameron Tran]

All in all, the Red Sox bullpen has performed well above expectations this season. Anchored by offseason acquisition Aroldis Chapman turning back the clock a decade or so, the Sox have gotten good performance from a number of relievers, with Garrett Whitlock, Greg Weissert, Justin Wilson, and Steven Matz all performing well. Despite this, the Red Sox bullpen has seemed rather top heavy at times. While there is reason for optimism, such as the imminent return of Justin Slaten and the hope Jordan Hicks can find something, too many times has the Red Sox bullpen depth cost them games. A prime example comes in the form of Saturdays 7-5 win over Miami. With a 5 run lead in the 9th, Isiah Campbell could only record 2 outs while allowing 3 runs and forcing Cora to turn to Chapman with the tying run at the plate. This led to Chapman being unavailable to pitch in Sunday;s game, where the Red Sox blew a 3-2 lead in the 9th in a game they would lose 5-3. We've seen this happen before, most recently with Jorge Alcala, and, as Will Flemming says best, "that just cannot happen." So, as the Red Sox gear up for a September playoff push, here's my candidates for the final bullpen spot. 

Isaiah Campbell:

The aforementioned Campbell has struggled in limited action with the Sox, allowing 4 homeruns in just 14 innings of work. Despite these struggles, fangraphs data loves his stuff, grading his slider, sinker and curveball as above average offerings. Unfortunately, Campbell has been completely unable to put it together at the big league level, and hasn't fared all to well in AAA either, with a 4.17 ERA in 45 innings. It seems likely this could be Campbell's last chance with the Sox.

Jovanni Moran:

Moran was acquired this offseason from the Twins in exchange for Mickey Gasper after spending 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Moran pitched very well in 2022 with the Twins, struggled in 2023 (despite a FIP a run and a half below his ERA), and underwent Tommy John before 2024. Moran made his Red Sox debut against the Astros on August 12th, striking out 2 and allowing 1 earned run in 2 innings of work. His fastball averages 93, but his low 80s slider has been his best pitch so far in his career. Moran's solid debut should earn him some more action. 

Zack Kelly:

Kelly was a key part of the Red Sox bullpen last year, but has failed to regain his spot after exiting a game in late June. In 56 innings last year, Kelly sported a 3.97 ERA with an above average K rate thanks in part to an amazing fastball-slider-changeup mix. All three pitches came back with stuff+ grades 10% better than league average, with his slider rocking a 134 stuff+. In 22 innings this season, Kelly has introduced a cutter and a sinker, giving him a 5 pitch mix where no pitch is being thrown over 30% of the time. Most of his underlying metrics suggest Kelly might be experiencing some bad luck, as his BABIP has skyrocketed to an unsustainable .344. Despite all this, Kelly's struggles have followed him to the minors, as he currently has an ERA north of 5 in his 21 AAA innings. 

Dustin May:

Despite the heavy price paid for the starter, it seems likely May would be the odd one out if the Red Sox decide to go to a 4 man rotation in October. May struggled in his first start, but had a bounce-back outing against a strong Houston team, throwing 6 scoreless while striking out 8. May showed improvement in velocity retention in this start, but his issues in his first start, where his fastball velocity dropped to 92-93 by his 60th pitch, linger. If May fails to build off this most recent start, don't be surprised if we see Cora start to use him as a high-leverage reliever, as his pure stuff on a one inning basis is still elite. 

Luis Guerrero:

Guerrero was a prime candidate to hold a high leverage roll this season after a strong showing last September, with some (me) predicting he could win the closer spot by June. Unfortunately, Guerrero struggled in 17 innings early, before hitting the 60 day IL in late June. Guerrero is eligible to return on August 28th, and is closing in on a rehab assignment. His fastball has looked much worse this season, with his velocity being a tick down across the board. The hope is that we can chalk that up to a bummy elbow, as Guerrero locked great in 9 games last September. 

Brennan Bernardino:

Bernardino has been a staple in the Sox pen for the better part of the last 3 seasons, but was recently demoted to AAA in favor of fellow lefty Chris Murphy. Bernardino was enjoying a strong campaign up to the point of demotion, and had in fact thrown 12 scoreless innings in July. Despite this, he was sent to Worcester at the beginning of August, where he has pitched 4 innings, striking out 8 while allowing 1 earned. It only seems like a matter of time before Bernardino returns to Boston. 

Chris Murphy: 

Murphy was initially chosen over Bernardino to remain in the Red Sox bullpen following the acquisition Steven Matz, but joined Bernardino in Worcester following an August 11th demotion. Murphy had been solid over 17 innings in June and July, but a pair of tough outings in San Diego, in which he walked 5 and recorded just 2 outs, spelled the end 27 year old. The hope is Murphy's feel for the zone will return, as he has held opposing batters to just a .162 BA this year in Boston. 

 

[moonslav59]

Unless Bernardino is injured, I'm not understanding why he's still in Woo, now. Some said he needed rest: well, he got some.

Maybe OPS Against is not the best stat to use for RP'ers, but to me, it beats ERA and WHIP, which counts singles the same as HRs and BBs the same, too.

We have 5 RP'ers who have faced 135+ batters (95+, too.) OPSA:

.393 Chapman is mind-boggling and blows even Uehara's numbers away. (161 PAs)

.566 Bernardino, yes, better than Whitlock and all others, except Slaten at .465 in 90 PAs Against!

.568 Whitlock in 235 PAs- most on the team, by far- many in high leverage and Late & Close situations.

Then, big drop to...

.670 Weissert in 215 PAs (2nd most) is actually pretty decent.

.679 Wilson at 157 PAs (5th of the top 5.)

IMO, even if Slaten wins back his top 3 role, Bernardino is my #5 or 6 guy, not 8th.

All healthy:

1. Chapman

2. Slaten

3. Whitlock

T4. Weissert & Bernardino 

6. Wilson

7. Moran, until he shows me he's not better than the rest.

8. Matz > Hicks (both with no options, so Brez would demote Moran, IMO.)

9. Criswell (better than Hicks)

10. Murphy (better than Hicks)

11. Harrison

12. I Campbell (on the 26, now!)

13. Fitts or Kelly

 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

The danger of having Campbell on the 26 is that Cora could choose to use him again.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

The danger of having Campbell on the 26 is that Cora could choose to use him again.

Brez could help in that area.

[Hitch]

There's the outside possibility of moving Buehler to the pen at some point, too.

[mvp 78]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

There's the outside possibility of moving Buehler to the pen at some point, too.

Who would fill his rotation spot? 

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Who would fill his rotation spot? 

Yeah, I think I'll just keep rooting for Buehler to pick it up a bit...

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, I think I'll just keep rooting for Buehler to pick it up a bit...

I like Fitts, but they don't trust him to go longer than 4 innings no matter how well he's throwing. Not a great fit for this bullpen right now. Criswell had a nice start for BOS last time, but he's carrying a much higher ERA in WOO this season. It's likely that the BOS start was a little bit of luck. Tolle is also going to hit an innings limit at some point, so he's less likely of an option than Fitts or Criswell. Harrison has an obscene walk rate and shouldn't be an option IMO. Uberstine would be more of a relief option. Connelly Early has pitched great everywhere this season, but I don't think the Sox would consider him for a spot until the second half of next season. 

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Who would fill his rotation spot? 

I'd be open to giving Criswell the start. I'm not openly advocating for this move, just a random thought more than anything else. That and the fact we ae getting very left handed in the pen. 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Who would fill his rotation spot? 

what about Harrison? i was told countless times after the Devers trade what a great pitcher this guy could be. LOL.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Who would fill his rotation spot? 

what about Priester? oh yeah, Breslow in his infinite wisdom (Yale grad) traded him for a grab bag of losers. 

[Bellhorn04]

The Criswell thing is kind of funny and kind of symptomatic of modern baseball.  You'd think after a great start like the one against Houston a guy would get another look, but the analytics say there was a lot of luck involved and back on the shuttle he goes, to return when the next emergency strikes.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

what about Harrison? i was told countless times after the Devers trade what a great pitcher this guy could be. LOL.

Just you wait!

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Duran Is The Man said:

what about Priester? oh yeah, Breslow in his infinite wisdom (Yale grad) traded him for a grab bag of losers. 

Just you wait again!

[Cameron Tran]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Criswell thing is kind of funny and kind of symptomatic of modern baseball.  You'd think after a great start like the one against Houston a guy would get another look, but the analytics say there was a lot of luck involved and back on the shuttle he goes, to return when the next emergency strikes.

the dude has been pretty damn good in every starting opportunity we give him. Feel kind of bad for him lol

[Cameron Tran]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Just you wait!

is Harrison a September call-up candidate? 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

is Harrison a September call-up candidate? 

He's on the 40 man, so maybe? Probably better options though.