Article: Despite Early Returns, the Red Sox Won the Quinn Priester Trade

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I trust the Sox drafting at 33 now in '25 more than I would have back in the Lou Gorman days, that's for sure. 

Me, too.

Even Bloom...

'21 -105 Elmer Rod (got us Narvaez), 226 Dobbins, 496 Guerrero

'22 -79 Anthony

'23 - Campbell

Brez...

'24 -50 Tolle

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, Hitch said:

No, that's the conversation you're having. 

I'm saying it's utterly pointless trying to judge who has won this trade (or even, might) when so little of the information needed to decide such things isn't available to us yet, or due any time soon.

Sorry. My bad. It's not for me to say where a conversation should lead.

It is too early to judge.

[notin]

On 8/17/2025 at 9:15 AM, Duran Is The Man said:

 you can speculate in hypotheticals all you want, but we know who has won this trade as of right now....and that's the Brewers. no amount of spin will change that. 

I didn’t like the trade and was quite vocal about it.  But it certainly could be a good, and possibly excellent, trade for Boston.

If all that matters is “right now”, the the Sox won the Andersen-Bagwell trade during the 1990 season…

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, Hitch said:

No, that's the conversation you're having. 

I'm saying it's utterly pointless trying to judge who has won this trade (or even, might) when so little of the information needed to decide such things isn't available to us yet, or due any time soon.

Priester isn't done with ARB years until 2030. We have such a small sample to go on for all these young players that I tend to agree. It may look horrible this year, great next year, so so the following year... 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

No, that's the conversation you're having. 

I'm saying it's utterly pointless trying to judge who has won this trade (or even, might) when so little of the information needed to decide such things isn't available to us yet, or due any time soon.

Okay, but so what?  There's no point in any discussion that occurs on this forum.  And much of what gets talked about here is speculation.  You talked about how it would be a great idea to trade Chapman.  That was speculation.

 

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Okay, but so what?  There's no point in any discussion that occurs on this forum.  And much of what gets talked about here is speculation.  You talked about how it would be a great idea to trade Chapman.  That was speculation.

 

It would have been a great idea to trade Chapman if the Sox wanted a massive haul at the deadline and weren't looking to have an effective bullpen down the stretch. 

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe the thread shouldn't have been titled so conclusively.  But there's nothing wrong with pointing out some of Priester's "under the hood" numbers or digging into the prospects we got back.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Maybe the thread shouldn't have been titled so conclusively.  But there's nothing wrong with pointing out some of Priester's "under the hood" numbers or digging into the prospects we got back.

It was interesting that on Yophery it said "bad May, bad June, great July" but suspiciously left off August. Let me give you the 4-1-1 on why that was the case. His OPS was 411. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Breslow didn't make the trade as a one for one for Rodriguez. It was for the value of the whole package: Rodriguez, John Holobetz ('24 5th rounder) and the pick that turned into Marcus Phillips ('25 pick #33 overall). Was it a great move in a year that the Sox are trying to get into the playoffs? Remains to be seen! 

You might want to check the stats on the probability of a 5th round pick making the MLB, then making the all-star team.  Priester has proven his skill level is high enough that he's a huge asset for Milwaukee and BOS received three guys that may never impact their team and are long, long shots to be equivalent to Priester.  For me, that's a decisive win for Milwaukee.   

Choosing the horses at 99-1 odds is a fun risk even if the three that are coupled on the race card look good on the track.  The fact remains, their chances of beating the favorite are slim to none.  BOS needed SPs and gave an outstanding one to another team and got back 3 colts that at best have "potential" thus leaving BOS far worse off to compete in 2025. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

You might want to check the stats on the probability of a 5th round pick making the MLB, then making the all-star team.  Priester has proven his skill level is high enough that he's a huge asset for Milwaukee and BOS received three guys that may never impact their team and are long, long shots to be equivalent to Priester.  For me, that's a decisive win for Milwaukee.   

Choosing the horses at 99-1 odds is a fun risk even if the three that are coupled on the race card look good on the track.  The fact remains, their chances of beating the favorite are slim to none.  BOS needed SPs and gave an outstanding one to another team and got back 3 colts that at best have "potential" thus leaving BOS far worse off to compete in 2025. 

I don't believe Breslow was expecting to trade Priester for 3 All Stars so I don't know why you think I believe Holobetz would be in that conversation? We're not even sure Priester will sniff an ASG appearance. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Priester isn't done with ARB years until 2030. We have such a small sample to go on for all these young players that I tend to agree. It may look horrible this year, great next year, so so the following year... 

As a comparison, when Mookie got traded, he pretty much stayed the same all-star level player and got extended which further stuck the knife in the back of all Red Sox fans and the three alleged qualify prospects were exactly what I pointed out in 2020, crap.  Verdugo was injury prone and inconsistent; Downs had 12 good games at the end of 2019 to go with his 298 bad games prior to being promoted to AA and that boosted his prospect rating from around 200 to 44 thanks to a bunch of bull provided by Friedman and Wong was the 6th best catcher in a fully loaded LAD farm system.  They were NEVER going to equal one year of Mookie let alone 13 years of Mookie.  Worst trade in Boston history.

The Priester trade may produce better prospects, but Priester has already put us far behind in the balance of the trade.  My belief is that the imbalance will grow as time passes but just the opposite could happen as well.

[Hitch]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Okay, but so what?  There's no point in any discussion that occurs on this forum.  And much of what gets talked about here is speculation.  You talked about how it would be a great idea to trade Chapman.  That was speculation.

 

Why so defensive? Nobody is stopping you or anyone else having any conversation you/they want.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

Why so defensive? Nobody is stopping you or anyone else having any conversation you/they want.

I happen to agree that this particular discussion is pointless because it's based on a massive amount of speculation.  Just expressing a philosophical view that pointless speculation isn't really an issue on a baseball forum.  Didn't mean it as an attack or anything, sorry if it came off that way.           

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I happen to agree that this particular discussion is pointless because it's based on a massive amount of speculation.  Just expressing a philosophical view that pointless speculation isn't really an issue on a baseball forum.  Didn't mean it as an attack or anything, sorry if it came off that way.           

I think I mistakenly set him off, by assuming he was following my line of discussion, when he was going in his own direction.

[Hitch]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think I mistakenly set him off, by assuming he was following my line of discussion, when he was going in his own direction.

Nobody has 'set me off'. 😆

I was responding to the article and the madness of making assertions on the trade this early. That's not to say people shouldn't waste their time however they see fit. We all do that every day on here and nobody is saying people cant talk about whatever they'd like.

If I was responding to any of the arguments included in the thread I would have quoted them.

 

[Bellhorn04]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

Nobody has 'set me off'. 😆

I was responding to the article and the madness of making assertions on the trade this early. That's not to say people shouldn't waste their time however they see fit. We all do that every day on here and nobody is saying people cant talk about whatever they'd like.

If I was responding to any of the arguments included in the thread I would have quoted them.

 

No harm done here, hopefully.  I think sometimes we have to allow for the fact that an internet message board can be a very awkward form of communication. 🙂

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

Nobody has 'set me off'. 😆

I was responding to the article and the madness of making assertions on the trade this early. That's not to say people shouldn't waste their time however they see fit. We all do that every day on here and nobody is saying people cant talk about whatever they'd like.

If I was responding to any of the arguments included in the thread I would have quoted them.

 

"Set you off" was a poor choice of words. I apologize.

You did respond to my post, where I was implying you were off topic, and I should not have done that, either.

[Hitch]

All good, both. 👍

[Bellhorn04]

The Priester trade brings to mind the classic line from Spinal Tap:

"There's such a fine line between clever and stupid."

[harmony]

On 8/18/2025 at 5:40 AM, moonslav59 said:

What are the odds that one from an 18%, a 17% and a 16% do well?

What is the source of the 17 and 16 percent chances?

The 18 percent chance for a No. 33 draft pick is for a positive career bWAR, not a single-season bWAR.

SoxProspects currently ranks Yophery Rodriguez and John Holobetz outside the Top 30 in a Boston farm system that has lost its luster. Their chances of posting a 1.0 WAR season are far, far lower than 17 and 16 percent.

You can't win the lottery without buying a ticket ... but they're still lottery tickets.

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Priester trade brings to mind the classic line from Spinal Tap:

"There's such a fine line between clever and stupid."

I thought you'd go with: "How much more black could this be? The answer is none. None more black."

Or maybe: "The review you had on Shark Sandwich was merely a two word review - s*** Sandwich." 

[mvp 78]

Stonehenge, mud flaps, Cleveland, eleven and all that. 

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, harmony said:

What is the source of the 17 and 16 percent chances?

The 18 percent chance for a No. 33 draft pick is for a positive career bWAR, not a single-season bWAR.

SoxProspects currently ranks Yophery Rodriguez and John Holobetz outside the Top 30 in a Boston farm system that has lost its luster. Their chances of posting a 1.0 WAR season are far, far lower than 17 and 16 percent.

You can't win the lottery without buying a ticket ... but they're still lottery tickets.

What makes you think past production from and example like the #33 picks is a projection tool?

[notin]

23 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

You might want to check the stats on the probability of a 5th round pick making the MLB, then making the all-star team

You know, I was saying this just the other day to Mookie Betts…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

You know, I was saying this just the other day to Mookie Betts…

Past production projections worked great with him.

[moonslav59]

Sox picks lower than #33 in recent drafts, with many still TBD...

2.1 Anthony '25

0.9 Dobbins '25

Others from before...

Crawford was a 16th rounder in '17

Duran was an 18th rounder in '18

DHam was an 8th rounder and Slaten a 3rd rounder in '19

[harmony]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What makes you think past production from and example like the #33 picks is a projection tool?

https://www.twinkietown.com/2021/3/10/22314722/mlb-minnesota-twins-historical-context-top-100-prospect-future-value-kiriloff-lewis-larnach-jeffers

Those who understand probability tend to exploit those who don't.

The casino owner won't sell its business because Auntie Gertie won $113,000 on its slot machines.

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

You know, I was saying this just the other day to Mookie Betts…

Who? I think that guy almost flamed out after his first season and wanted to go back to college and play basketball.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox picks lower than #33 in recent drafts, with many still TBD...

2.1 Anthony '25

0.9 Dobbins '25

Others from before...

Crawford was a 16th rounder in '17

Duran was an 18th rounder in '18

DHam was an 8th rounder and Slaten a 3rd rounder in '19

Guys who made the bigs (2018 - 2023 draft):

Campbell 4th

Meidroth 4th

Kavadas 11th

Lugo 2nd

Zeferjhan 3rd

Murphy 6th

Ward 5th

Duran 7th

Fernandez 23rd

 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, harmony said:

https://www.twinkietown.com/2021/3/10/22314722/mlb-minnesota-twins-historical-context-top-100-prospect-future-value-kiriloff-lewis-larnach-jeffers

Those who understand probability tend to exploit those who don't.

The casino owner won't sell its business because Auntie Gertie won $113,000 on its slot machines.

Past performance of certain draft slots are not projection tools. I'm sure research will find something like pick #79 do better than pick #59. It's pretty random, especially after the top 10-15 picks, IMO.

The Sox have done very well with picks 20-60 and beyond- even better than their 1-20 picks, in many cases.

On my chosen percents of 18, 17, 16, they were likely too high, but even 3 chances at 10-15% gives a team a good chance at one guy reaching a 1.0 fWAR in a season.