Sox to acquire Steven Matz

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He's been better than that, moon.  He has a higher fWAR than any Sox reliever except Chapman.

This year, yes, and I guess I did short-change him a bit.

I use OPS a lot- maybe too much. His .669 OPS beats a lot of Sox RP'ers- to  the point where he would be top 3-4. Some ahead of him are out of the picture or not likely to be given high leverage innings the remained of the season.

Our pen, as a whole, has an amazing .641 OPS Against. Of course, Chapman's .432 brings it down, by himself, but these guys have better OPSA than Matz- as RP'er only:

.465 Slaten (IL and may not come back)

.530 Guerrero (IL)

.552 Whitlock (our #2 IMO)

.566 Bernardino (LH'd, like Matz)

.622 Wink (IL)

.625 Murphy (more and more higher leverage of late)

.649 Burdi (60 Day IL)

.665 Hicks (hard to believe)

Close to .669

.674 Weissert

.685 Wilson

I might order our pen like this- by high leverage trust:

1. Chapman

2. Whitlock

3. Wilson

4. Weissert

5/6. Matz/Hicks

7. Bernardino

8. Murphy

(Alcala is out of options, so maybe Murphy gets demoted, but I'd just trade or DFA Alcala. If we trade for a pitcher, Criswell will be demoted, IMO.)

 

[mvp 78]

It makes no sense to DFA anyone if Murphy still has options. You need every arm available. 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It makes no sense to DFA anyone if Murphy still has options. You need every arm available. 

Alcala has really struggled and is a typical journeyman pitcher/waiver wire type guy.

It makes no sense to me to demote a much better pitcher, in Murphy. (Also, Criswell will be the first to be demoted.) 

Alcala has a 4.67 ERA since 2023 with a 4.82 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. He did well over his first 5 games with us, and hasn't been terrible since, but his FIP over his last 12 games is 4.63. It's 7.35 in his last 7 games & 10.59 in his last 4.

We can pick up guys like him off the waiver wire. We also have Fitts, Harrison & I Campbell  on the active 40 and maybe Houck, Kelly or Guerrero coming off the IL.

 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Alcala has really struggled and is a typical journeyman pitcher/waiver wire type guy.

It makes no sense to me to demote a much better pitcher, in Murphy. (Also, Criswell will be the first to be demoted.) 

Alcala has a 4.67 ERA since 2023 with a 4.82 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. He did well over his first 5 games with us, and hasn't been terrible since, but his FIP over his last 12 games is 4.63. It's 7.35 in his last 7 games & 10.59 in his last 4.

We can pick up guys like him off the waiver wire. We also have Fitts, Harrison & I Campbell  on the active 40 and maybe Houck, Kelly or Guerrero coming off the IL.

Alcala with the Sox: 1.72 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 1.404 WHIP

Murphy '25: 4.91 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 1.406 WHIP

They are close enough in terms of production to not DFA Alcala. May as well keep them both by just sending Murphy to AAA for a few weeks until you need his fresh arm. You need all the arms you can get at this point in the season and can't rely on the waiver wire. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Alcala with the Sox: 1.72 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 1.404 WHIP

Murphy '25: 4.91 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 1.406 WHIP

They are close enough in terms of production to not DFA Alcala. May as well keep them both by just sending Murphy to AAA for a few weeks until you need his fresh arm. You need all the arms you can get at this point in the season and can't rely on the waiver wire. 

We'll demote Criswell before Murphy or DFA'ing Alcala.

Ummm. Chris Mjurphy has a 2.70 ERA in 2025. (It was 4.91 in '23.) He has a 0.900 WHIP, but his FIP is over 5, due to 3 HRs in 16.2 IP.

[cp176]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

I listen to same Sox prospects podcast as MVP (I'm guessing) and you do get some more detailed tidbits on these podcasts. I think the pitching level in AAA has been the lowest it's been in a while so the stats can be a little misleading now as the pitching is so inferior to the MLB.

So yeah, can be tricky to judge just looking at the stats at the moment. I still had high hopes for Blaze, though.

I guess the fact they didn't bring him up shows, as Moon says, that they must see something every day they think isn't right, because God knows we need something at 1B.

 

Links to the podcast on Spotify and YouTube if you ever fancy it - 

 

 

 

Thanks for the links. Grissom had a little to say about not being called up.  It has to be confusing for young ball players who are actually playing well to not get a call up when it seems like the logical move.  I’m not a big fan of either of these guys really but in Grissom’s case, he has played nearly 90 games for Worcester and has had a pretty good year.   If their numbers are skewed by bad pitching after more than a half a season, I’m thinking that none of our minor leaguers should feel comfortable.  They all could be traded for the right numbers of veterans.  At this point in time, I would think that only Anthony has shown that he has what it takes to really move forward.   

[Deja Doh]

Joe Ryan would be a great trade get.

Now if only Masa could play 1B.

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We'll demote Criswell before Murphy or DFA'ing Alcala.

Ummm. Chris Mjurphy has a 2.70 ERA in 2025. (It was 4.91 in '23.) He has a 0.900 WHIP, but his FIP is over 5, due to 3 HRs in 16.2 IP.

I was clearly looking at the '23 numbers. 

Regardless, they aren't DFA'ing Alcala if Murphy has options. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Deja Doh said:

Joe Ryan would be a great trade get.

Now if only Masa could play 1B.

The Sox aren't going to pay trade deadline prices for Joe Ryan when they can get him much cheaper this offseason if they want him. 

[Hitch]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Sox aren't going to pay trade deadline prices for Joe Ryan when they can get him much cheaper this offseason if they want him. 

Yup. We'll almost certainly be nibbling around the edges rather than doing anything huge. 

[Hitch]

22 minutes ago, cp176 said:

Thanks for the links. Grissom had a little to say about not being called up.  It has to be confusing for young ball players who are actually playing well to not get a call up when it seems like the logical move.  I’m not a big fan of either of these guys really but in Grissom’s case, he has played nearly 90 games for Worcester and has had a pretty good year.   If their numbers are skewed by bad pitching after more than a half a season, I’m thinking that none of our minor leaguers should feel comfortable.  They all could be traded for the right numbers of veterans.  At this point in time, I would think that only Anthony has shown that he has what it takes to really move forward.   

Yeah I saw those quotes. I feel for the kid, too. As you say - it's got to be confusing and hard to deal with. 

I hope we trade him and he gets time somewhere, but he doesn't seem particularly in demand, either.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Yup. We'll almost certainly be nibbling around the edges rather than doing anything huge. 

My personal preference is to do a huge rebuilding in the offseason, rather than massive spending at the deadline. I think nibbling can be fine. 

Nibbling worked in 2018 and 2021. I don't think any of us saw those moves as being huge, but they worked out well. 

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I was clearly looking at the '23 numbers. 

Regardless, they aren't DFA'ing Alcala if Murphy has options. 

It's easy to just admit you made a mistake.

Why compare 2025 Alcala to 2023 Murphy?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

It's easy to just admit you made a mistake.

Why compare 2025 Alcala to 2023 Murphy?

I was admitting my mistake with my first sentence bucko. If I didn't word it to your liking, oh well. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

I was admitting my mistake with my first sentence bucko. If I didn't word it to your liking, oh well. 

Okay. I was thinking you meant to say 2023 not 2025. My bad.

Murphy is better.

I see your point about keeping as many options as possible, but we are near August, and it's time to put the best players on the 26. We still have 4-6 arms on the farm and another 2-3 coming off the IL, soon that all look as good as or better than Alcala, to me.

If we add an arm, Criswell gets demoted. (Harrison may replace him soon.)

To me, the next casualty should be Alcala not a Murphy demotion, but maybe both end up happening, anyway.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay. I was thinking you meant to say 2023 not 2025. My bad.

Murphy is better.

I see your point about keeping as many options as possible, but we are near August, and it's time to put the best players on the 26. We still have 4-6 arms on the farm and another 2-3 coming off the IL, soon that all look as good as or better than Alcala, to me.

If we add an arm, Criswell gets demoted. (Harrison may replace him soon.)

To me, the next casualty should be Alcala not a Murphy demotion, but maybe both end up happening, anyway.

Murphy is better, for sure. If they get to September, they may pull the cord and let Alcala go. Criswell and Campbell are the two worst pitchers on the 40 man. Alcala gets let go because he doesn't have options though. Kind of depends on what other moves they make between then? IDK. 

I think Murphy has a similar ceiling to Crawford. People were probably too high on Crawford at one point and probably too low on Murphy now. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Murphy is better, for sure. If they get to September, they may pull the cord and let Alcala go. Criswell and Campbell are the two worst pitchers on the 40 man. Alcala gets let go because he doesn't have options though. Kind of depends on what other moves they make between then? IDK. 

I think Murphy has a similar ceiling to Crawford. People were probably too high on Crawford at one point and probably too low on Murphy now. 

Agreed, but I Campbell is not on the 26. He'll be kept over Alcala due to options and years of control.

Criswell gets demoted, first.

The second guy is between DFAing Alcala vs demoting Murphy. Maybe with Matz on board, we trade Bernardino, but I doubt it.

I'd keep Murphy for August & September. We can pick up waiver guys as good as Alcala in AUG, if needed. We may add a SP'er and RP'er, today and both Alcala and Murphy are removed from the 26. We also have Harrison and Houck (maybe Guerrero) banging on the MLB door, too. (Fitts might get one more look-see.)

[Nick]

Sox wanted hard throwers in the pen. Murphy does not throw 98-100.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Nick said:

Sox wanted hard throwers in the pen. Murphy does not throw 98-100.

I'd rather Murphy than Hicks or Alcala. 

Murphy throws harder than Bernardino and matches Weissert and Burdi. 

[Nick]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd rather Murphy than Hicks or Alcala. 

Murphy throws harder than Bernardino and matches Weissert and Burdi. 

Understood. But Cora seems enamored with Alcala and Hicks velocity. Damn the control.

[moonslav59]

Gotta also wonder how many lefty pen arms the Sox will have on the 26:

Chapman

Matz

Wilson

Bernardino

Murphy?