From Fielding Percentage to Defensive Runs Saved - a thread about fielding

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox just gave up another pile of unearned runs on the weekend.

The Sox have allowed .61 unearned runs per game.  The MLB average is .31 per game.  Seems like...double.  That can't be good.  

The Red Sox are tied with the Rockies for worst Fielding Percentage in MLB at .977.

I can see that the Sox grade better in some of the advanced defensive metrics that are based on range and all that good stuff.  I will leave that part to our resident Captain Nemo level data divers.

I can see both sides of the fielding debate we've had here.  I agree that range is a huge factor.  But I also think plain old muffed plays can be pretty important too.

So basically just a thread for anything at all about fielding. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I will leave that part to our resident Captain Nemo level data divers.

Pass. 

I think the defensive metrics are ok for what they are, but when OAA and DRS greatly disagree on a player it's easy to see their limitations. Someday there will be something better I hope. It's similar to how the catch percentage calculation isn't reflective of difficulty the closer a ball reaches the wall. 

[Bellhorn04]

It might be a little ironic that trying to upgrade the defense led indirectly to the Sox losing their best hitter.  And the defense is still a problem.  

 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It might be a little ironic that trying to upgrade the defense led indirectly to the Sox losing their best hitter.  And the defense is still a problem.  

 

Narvaez C

Romy/Toro/Whoever 1B

Story 2B

Mayer SS

Bregman 3B

Abreu RF

Rafaela CF

Anthony LF 

This is the lineup I'd try to run out as much as possible going forward if I want the best defense on the field.

[notin]

7 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Red Sox just gave up another pile of unearned runs on the weekend.

The Sox have allowed .61 unearned runs per game.  The MLB average is .31 per game.  Seems like...double.  That can't be good.  

The Red Sox are tied with the Rockies for worst Fielding Percentage in MLB at .977.

I can see that the Sox grade better in some of the advanced defensive metrics that are based on range and all that good stuff.  I will leave that part to our resident Captain Nemo level data divers.

I can see both sides of the fielding debate we've had here.  I agree that range is a huge factor.  But I also think plain old muffed plays can be pretty important too.

So basically just a thread for anything at all about fielding. 

The big problem with errors is there some guy’s opinion, and the rebuttal is always “but most errors are obvious.”  
 

Of course that never takes into account plays that should be errors but are not scored as such.  This Saturday I went to Wrigley for a Cubs-Mariners game.  I saw defensive whiz Pete Crow-Armstrong misplay two towering flyballs that both landed within a couple feet of him.  I saw Ian Happ stop charging a third pop up and let it fall just feet in front of him.  All three easily makable plays were scored as hits, as though they were unplayable.  I saw Vidal Brujan one-hop a throw to first that Michael Busch avoided, scoring an E-5 on what should have been an E-3.  
 

It’s simply a bad stat.

The Sox have made far too many errors, but their other metrics bear out their weak defense as well…

[notin]

7 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It might be a little ironic that trying to upgrade the defense led indirectly to the Sox losing their best hitter.  And the defense is still a problem.  

 

That “upgraded defense” features backup players everywhere but shortstop at times.  It’s not the real defense.  At least when Mayer plays third, it’s a little better.  But they still seem to have at least 2 of Romy, Toro and Hamilton on the field at all times…

[moonslav59]

We are making too many errors, some easy ones, some borderline hits called erros, and then the ones that are bonehead plays. There are also many no errors that are scored as hits or fielder's choice that could have been outs or DPs.

I do think our defense is better than 2024, but that was such a low bar set, it should not have taken much to improve upon.

Narvaez and Bregman were very nice additions for the O and D. Stories return and Rafaela FT in CF should have led to much better numbers- traditional and otherwise, than we've seen, It's not like RF defense got any worse. 2B and 1B sucked to begin with, but I'm not thinking it got worse in 2025. Our pitchers have sucked on D, but this whole thing doesn't make sense, to me.

I'm hopeful we can improve our fldg% and metrics, going forward. We'll need improvements in several aeras to make up for the loss of Devers. Mayer looks like a plus and Anthony is no slouch on D. Campbell is question mark, but there has been a low bar set at 2B for over 7 years.

[Kimmi]

When I am attempting to assess a player's or team's defensive ability, the idea of looking at errors or fielding percentage doesn't even cross my mind.  It's long been DRS, UZR or UZR/150, and more recently, OAA as well.  

The advanced metrics are not perfect, but they are head and shoulders above traditional defensive stats.

[Kimmi]

I will say, however, that having sure hands, even with a lack of range, probably is more of a psychological boost to pitchers, teammates, and fans.  Or perhaps I should say that having unsteady hands is probably more or of a let down to pitchers, teammates, and fans than having lack of range.  

Booting a ball hit right to you and allowing a run to score that shouldn't have scored is very noticeable, and can be demoralizing.  OTOH, missing a ball due to lack of range and allowing a run to score that shouldn't have scored isn't always obvious.  Both cost the team in the same way though.

[Kimmi]

21 hours ago, notin said:

The big problem with errors is there some guy’s opinion, and the rebuttal is always “but most errors are obvious.”  
 

Of course that never takes into account plays that should be errors but are not scored as such.  This Saturday I went to Wrigley for a Cubs-Mariners game.  I saw defensive whiz Pete Crow-Armstrong misplay two towering flyballs that both landed within a couple feet of him.  I saw Ian Happ stop charging a third pop up and let it fall just feet in front of him.  All three easily makable plays were scored as hits, as though they were unplayable.  I saw Vidal Brujan one-hop a throw to first that Michael Busch avoided, scoring an E-5 on what should have been an E-3.  
 

It’s simply a bad stat.

The Sox have made far too many errors, but their other metrics bear out their weak defense as well…

In the MLB rulebook, under the definition of "Errors", the phrase "judgment call" or something similar is used repeatedly.  That can't be good.

And what about mental errors, such as a pitcher not covering first base?  That's clearly an error, but not counted as one.

[notin]

4 hours ago, Kimmi said:

In the MLB rulebook, under the definition of "Errors", the phrase "judgment call" or something similar is used repeatedly.  That can't be good.

And what about mental errors, such as a pitcher not covering first base?  That's clearly an error, but not counted as one.

Errors serve a purpose - they exist to explain a runner on base or a runner taking an extra base.  That’s why you never get one charged if at least one out was recorded.  

It’s not good defense to boot a grounder and only get one out when you could easily get two, but errors/fielding percentage says it is…

[Kimmi]

On 6/24/2025 at 9:11 PM, notin said:

Errors serve a purpose - they exist to explain a runner on base or a runner taking an extra base.  That’s why you never get one charged if at least one out was recorded.  

It’s not good defense to boot a grounder and only get one out when you could easily get two, but errors/fielding percentage says it is…

I'm not a fan of the "you can't assume a double play" idea.

[dgalehouse]

It is much easier to evaluate defense when you are at the ballpark. But the vast majority of what we see is on TV. So, no matter what stats or metrics you want to go by, you are not getting the full picture from the television. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

It is much easier to evaluate defense when you are at the ballpark. But the vast majority of what we see is on TV. So, no matter what stats or metrics you want to go by, you are not getting the full picture from the television. 

Absolutely true.

I cannot count the number of times I’ve seen someone comment about an outfielder “not getting good jumps” on flyballs based on watching the player on TV.  How do they see that?  When I watch games, the outfielders are all already post-jump by the time the camera cuts to them.   Now if you’re at the park, you might see the jump.  Almost never on TV, however…

[sk7326]

On 6/23/2025 at 11:09 AM, mvp 78 said:

Pass. 

I think the defensive metrics are ok for what they are, but when OAA and DRS greatly disagree on a player it's easy to see their limitations. Someday there will be something better I hope. It's similar to how the catch percentage calculation isn't reflective of difficulty the closer a ball reaches the wall. 

I have been leaning more to OAA just because the inputs are so much higher quality than they have been for UZR/DRS etc.  The measurement also seems fairly direct and comparable to some of the metrics that have appeared in other sports (football and golf most notably).

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

I have been leaning more to OAA just because the inputs are so much higher quality than they have been for UZR/DRS etc.  The measurement also seems fairly direct and comparable to some of the metrics that have appeared in other sports (football and golf most notably).

The only drawback to OAA is how it treats balls hit to or over OF walls, especially shorter porches. It assumes that Duran can still get to some balls hit onto the Monster for example because it scores everything by trajectory and ignores ballpark architecture.

[sk7326]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The only drawback to OAA is how it treats balls hit to or over OF walls, especially shorter porches. It assumes that Duran can still get to some balls hit onto the Monster for example because it scores everything by trajectory and ignores ballpark architecture.

The blindspot OAA has in addition is that it doesn't have much to say about the play at the catchpoint.  The dive or leap might not matter enough. 

[notin]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The only drawback to OAA is how it treats balls hit to or over OF walls, especially shorter porches. It assumes that Duran can still get to some balls hit onto the Monster for example because it scores everything by trajectory and ignores ballpark architecture.

Duran needs to work on that…

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

The blindspot OAA has in addition is that it doesn't have much to say about the play at the catchpoint.  The dive or leap might not matter enough. 

We've spent way too much brainpower on DRS and OAA the past few years. Until there's something better, they are all we got. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Duran needs to work on that…

There is a ladder he could use! Why hasn't he tried that? 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

There is a ladder he could use! Why hasn't he tried that? 

Because he’s just stubborn…

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

Because he’s just stubborn…

Just another clubhouse diva, I guess. 💃

[notin]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Just another clubhouse diva, I guess. 💃

Well we just won 6 games in a row.  Time for Breslow’s Traditional Celebratory Diva Trade…

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Well we just won 6 games in a row.  Time for Breslow’s Traditional Celebratory Diva Trade…

Honestly, trade the entire team except for Anthony and Mayer. It's just laundry anyway. Maybe keep Crochet if you can't get a decent return. 😢

[notin]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Honestly, trade the entire team except for Anthony and Mayer. It's just laundry anyway. Maybe keep Crochet if you can't get a decent return. 😢

Can’t.

Not enough season left for that many 6 game winning streaks

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, notin said:

Duran needs to work on that…

He should have climbed the ladder to nab that one hit.

[moonslav59]

Some Sox OAAs:

1B: -2 Toro (Romy -1/ Casas -3)

2B: +1 DHam (-1 Romy/ -8 Campbell)

SS: -2 Story (hard to believe)

3B: +2 Mayer, +1 Bregman- also unbelievable (-1 Toro/-2 Eaton)

LF: -6 Duran, -2 Refsnyder (tainted numbers)

CF: +14 Rafaela (0 Campbell & Duran)

RF: +5 Abreu (aided by bigger RF area) +3 Anthony (way less time than Abreu) and 0 Refsnyder (should be a minus)

DRS: (1200+ players with 20+ innings)

+14 Rafaela (3rd out of all players at all positions)

+12 Narvaez (8th)

+8 Abreu (20th)

+7 DHam (30th)

+5 Bregman & Anthony (48)

+4 Duran (74)

+2 Refsnyder & Wong

+1 Story, DHam (SS), Mayer (3B)

0 Toro (3B) Romy & Sogard(1B)

-1 Campbell (CF)

-2 Romy (2B)

-3 Eaton (3B)

-5 Toro & Casas (1B)

-15 Campbell (2B)

[Larry Cook]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Honestly, trade the entire team except for Anthony and Mayer. It's just laundry anyway. Maybe keep Crochet if you can't get a decent return. 😢

White Sox fans say they should try and trade for Romy!!!!

teel for romy, blaze and Sandlin?????

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

White Sox fans say they should try and trade for Romy!!!!

teel for romy, blaze and Sandlin?????

Give them Hamilton as well to clear up 40 man space. 

[Soxlover]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Give them Hamilton as well to clear up 40 man space. 

Or Grissom