Article: How Well Do The Red Sox And Padres Match Up On A Jarren Duran Trade?

[Alex Mayes]

Early on Monday morning, Dennis Lin of The Athletic published a piece stating that the San Diego Padres have interest in trading for Jarren Duran. This isn’t a new idea for the Padres’ front office — they looked into acquiring Duran prior to the 2024 season as well. This time, though, they have been bitten by the injury bug and Duran would slide perfectly into their suddenly-empty outfield. Would the trade make sense from both sides though? Let’s take a look.

From the Padres’ Perspective:

The Padres would be trading for a player in Duran who can play multiple outfield positions, fields relatively well, has handled the bat well in recent campaigns, and is a speed demon on the basepaths. It would inject their offense with some much-needed new blood. The Padres currently are slashing .249/.316/.385 as a team. Not great, but passable. Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. have all played well this season, but the roster takes a pretty significant nosedive after those three players. Adding Duran would at least give them another hitter who could be counted on most at-bats and help to take some pressure off the bottom half of the lineup. On top of that, Duran is controllable. He signed an extension taking him through 2027 but he will re-enter the arbitration process in 2028. It gives the Padres another semi-young talent to grow with Merrill. 

The flip side here is that even though the Padres play in the toughest division in baseball, they had been holding their own until recently. The package to land someone of Duran’s caliber would be fairly large, and reasonably so. The Red Sox would likely look to have a high-level starting pitcher included in the deal, and that conversation would probably center around either Michael King and Dylan Cease. Both pitchers are currently on the injured list though. If the Padres believe they can at least compete for a wildcard position, why would they want to ship out one of the top two arms in their rotation for Duran? It doesn’t make a ton of sense if that’s a sticking point for the Red Sox, and it should be. 

From the Red Sox’s Perspective:

Jarren Duran is the oldest member of the foundational core at 28 years old. If you’re a listener to The Talk Sox Podcast, where I actually brought this trade up on Episode 12, you’ll know that I’ve been pounding the drum that the weird extension Duran signed in the offseason signaled that the Red Sox don’t actually view him as a long-term member of the team. Why only buy out two of his three arbitration years and then send him back through the process at age 31? It doesn’t make sense and, to me, signals that he’s a moveable piece in any deal that nets the Red Sox another big roster addition. While he’s having a down season, he is a year removed from his 2024 All-Star MVP award and has shown glimpses of finding his stride again. If the Red Sox truly think he isn’t someone to build around, then there’s likely not going to be a better time to trade Duran than this season. They should have traded him during the offseason when his value was highest, but this trade deadline could be the next best thing, especially if Boston is still falling out of contention.

Who would the Red Sox look to get back in a deal for Duran? They’d likely want to add another playoff caliber starter to the rotation, but the Padres would want to steer them towards prospects to make up the bulk of the trade. To get a relative sense of his value, I studied Duran’s Baseball Savant page and pitted him against similar players (in terms of recent production). Out of those, I picked three names who were traded fairly recently and analyzed the return package. Before we dive into those, note that I’m not comparing Duran to these players or suggesting he's on their level. I’m just trying to get a baseline for what a deal could look like. 

Deal #1: Fransisco Lindor

In 2021, the then-Cleveland Indians packaged their phenom shortstop in a deal with an aging pitcher to land a haul of prospects. Cleveland traded Lindor and Carlos Carrasco for INF Amed Rosario, INF Andres Gimenez, RHP Josh Wolf, and OF Isaiah Greene. Wolf and Greene were the Mets’ ninth and tenth ranked prospects at the time, while Rosario and Gimenez were big league contributors. The Mets won this trade handily. Wolf is now playing for the Giants’ High-A affiliate, while Greene was released from Cleveland’s High-A affiliate in March. Rosario has bounced around the league and is currently with the Nationals, while Gimenez is with Toronto. Lindor was playing out his last season before he could reach free agency when he was traded and signed a monster extension to remain in Queens.

Deal #2: Trea Turner

Like Lindor, Turner was packaged with an aging All-Star pitcher to increase the return of the trade. Turner and Max Scherzer were dealt to the Dodgers for C Kiebert Ruiz, RHP Josiah Gray, RHP Gerardo Carrillo, and OF Donovan Casey. At the time, Ruiz was the third-ranked prospect in the system, Gray was the number one prospect, and Carrillo was the Dodgers’ 17th-ranked prospect. Ruiz and Gray have both made it to the majors while Carrillo is currently in the Rangers’ Double-A system, and Casey is playing professional baseball in Mexico. Turner had one more season of control before he hit free agency. 

Deal #3: Javier Baez

After the Mets made a move for Lindor, they brought in Javy Baez and Trevor Williams to help try and push them over the edge. The Cubs traded Baez and Williams to the Mets for Pete Crow-Armstrong, who was the fifth-ranked prospect in the Mets’ system at the time of the trade. This is the one deal of the three that worked out best for the team trading the big name player away, as PCA seems to be on his way to becoming a superstar in Chicago. Baez was playing his final half-season before free agency when he was traded.

So, if we use these three deals as a foundational piece for a Duran trade to the Padres, there’s a ton of risk involved from Boston’s side. If the Red Sox had to attach a starter to Duran in the deal, would they even consider it? They want to add to their pitching depth, not subtract from it. It’s probably safe to assume that the Padres’ top two prospects, SS Leo De Vries and C Ethan Salas, would be off the table and neither are close enough to the majors to make a whole lot of sense from Boston’s side. Looking further down their prospect list, there really isn’t a match there at all. Wnless the Padres are willing to package a top-tier major league starter with a collection of minor leaguers, then Duran may just be a pipe dream for them.

I still believe that Jarren Duran should be traded from the Boston Red Sox, I just don’t think the Padres match up very well as a prospective trade partner. Remember, we still have all of June and July before we get to the trade deadline. It’s entirely possible the Padres could rebound and be one left fielder away from true title contention. Unless that occurs, though, I wouldn’t bank on Duran teaming up with Xander Bogaerts again anytime soon.

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[TedYazPapiMookie]

I think it's fair to suggest this was a tire kicking exercise by San Diego because Duran is a big part of the future in Boston.  BUT if San Diego is willing to part with Salas who would become our catcher of the future making Narvaez and excellent back-up in the future and Leo De Vries SS I think we should do the deal.  Let's see how desperate San Diego is for Duran.  Duran still has time to get hot and make the all-star team again so if that happens maybe a deal could be done in a month.  De Vries is the answer at SS in the future.  He's a better fielder than Mayer and if Bregman opts out then Mayer can stay at 3B and the infield should be able to play together for years.  Anthony would go to RF and Abreu/Refsnyder would go to LF.  No pitching is going to be given up by San Diego which is what we need but the two key prospects would closeout our needs on offense so next off season we could focus on the 3 through 5 spots in the starting rotation and more quality relievers.  2026 could be a really great year where we get close to the level of talent we had in 2018. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

I think it's fair to suggest this was a tire kicking exercise by San Diego because Duran is a big part of the future in Boston.  BUT if San Diego is willing to part with Salas who would become our catcher of the future making Narvaez and excellent back-up in the future and Leo De Vries SS I think we should do the deal.  Let's see how desperate San Diego is for Duran.  Duran still has time to get hot and make the all-star team again so if that happens maybe a deal could be done in a month.  De Vries is the answer at SS in the future.  He's a better fielder than Mayer and if Bregman opts out then Mayer can stay at 3B and the infield should be able to play together for years.  Anthony would go to RF and Abreu/Refsnyder would go to LF.  No pitching is going to be given up by San Diego which is what we need but the two key prospects would closeout our needs on offense so next off season we could focus on the 3 through 5 spots in the starting rotation and more quality relievers.  2026 could be a really great year where we get close to the level of talent we had in 2018. 

No matter what happens with Bregman, Mayer is going to play SS next season. He's the best defender they have in the system above A ball. 

It would be ridiculous to move Abreu to LF and Anthony to RF. Why take a great defender and limit his glove like that? Abreu will be the RFer as long as he's in Boston. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

No matter what happens with Bregman, Mayer is going to play SS next season. He's the best defender they have in the system above A ball. 

It would be ridiculous to move Abreu to LF and Anthony to RF. Why take a great defender and limit his glove like that? Abreu will be the RFer as long as he's in Boston. 

We disagree on two items:

1 - A .951 fielding percentage in the minors means Mayer is NOT a great defender.  In fact, his performance in the minors was nowhere near Campbell's and you can see the transition to the MLB from the minors on defense has not been a too difficult to handle like so many think.  Campbell has made 4 errors in 13 less total chances than he had in the minors at 2B.  So his fielding percentage dropped from .979 to .978.  Which means he's still an excellent 2B.  Mayer has dropped from .951 to .941 in the MLB.  That's why I disagree with what you wrote.  Maybe he'll improve with a larger sample size.

2 - Abreu won a bogus gold glove because 2024 had a horrendous set of right fielders.  Ceddanne Rafaela ranked higher overall defensively last year but finished behind 3 outstanding Centerfielders.  This year his numbers are still ahead of Abreu.  Abreu is the weakest defender in the outfield according to the numbers.  Rafaela's Drs/yr in 2024 was 23 in 2025 it's already 25.  Abreu's Drs/yr in 2024 was 22 and in 2025 it's 21.  So that shows you just how great our outfield is.  Duran's numbers show how hard it is to be a good LF in Boston.  His CF Drs/yr in 2024 was 25 and LF was 12 for an average of 19.  Put him in right field and Abreu in LF and the overall defense will be better based on the numbers.

FYI... Verdugo won a GG in RF the year before Abreu because the competition is so weak at that position not because he's a great outfielder.  He made less errors than Abreu (3 to 7) but his Drs/yr was only 10!!!

Abreu has an issue with going back to the outfield fence and the side fence in RF.  He gets the yips and pulls up.  He even changes his footwork to catch balls that might lead him into the fence.  His specialty is just like Verdugo's.  He is excellent on coming in for balls to his right (glove side).  He's made some outstanding catches sliding for the ball.  He also has an excellent arm but he's still the third best and should cover the smaller outfield with his lack of speed compared to Duran and Rafaela.  FYI, Anthony is an excellent defensive outfielder like Rafaela.  He plays CF too so optimally they need to be in the big fields in Fenway.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

This could be similar to the Sox and Dodgers of 2012. San Diego gets Duran, but they must also take Masa and Story. The Sox get little to nothing in return except having Masa and Story off their books.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

This could be similar to the Sox and Dodgers of 2012. San Diego gets Duran, but they must also take Masa and Story. The Sox get little to nothing in return except having Masa and Story off their books.

Cheap ass Red Sox if they do that.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

4 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

This could be similar to the Sox and Dodgers of 2012. San Diego gets Duran, but they must also take Masa and Story. The Sox get little to nothing in return except having Masa and Story off their books.

That is an excellent addition through subtraction scenario.  Preller has the money to do it.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Cheap ass Red Sox if they do that.

Only if they don't take the money saved and get more quality pitching like Crochet and Buehler.

[vegasbob]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Cheap ass Red Sox if they do that.

Not really a cheap tactic.   Would you swap Duran for Anthony heads up right now, if that was the only choice? 

To unload Story and Masa in one move would provide mucho dinero for FA's  this winter.  

And to be sure, I am a fan of Duran unlike many of his teammates

[TedYazPapiMookie]

6 hours ago, vegasbob said:

Not really a cheap tactic.   Would you swap Duran for Anthony heads up right now, if that was the only choice? 

To unload Story and Masa in one move would provide mucho dinero for FA's  this winter.  

And to be sure, I am a fan of Duran unlike many of his teammates

I believe Bregman is the most valuable player on the team, then Duran and Devers (hitters only).  After that Anthony and Campbell, then Rafaela, Casas and Abreu, then Narvaez.  I would give up Anthony before Duran because Duran is a proven commodity and Anthony is potential only at this point.  Prospects are over-estimated most of the time.  Mookie and Bogey weren't but think of all the others that looked great but ended up league average.  JBJ, Benny, many starting pitchers, Whitlock and then so many turned out bad like Rusney, Jeter Downs, Grissom the $17Million dollar waste that cost us Sale.  It's highly unlikely that Mayer will ever be as good as Bogaerts, it's highly unlikely Anthony will be as good as Mookie and its highly unlikely Campbell will be as good as Pedroia.  Let's just hope they are all close.

[notin]

8 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

That is an excellent addition through subtraction scenario.  Preller has the money to do it.

San Diego was paring salary last year.

If they just took Story, that might be enough.  Plus San Diego might be able to use him; they seem to love moving shortstops off-position.

[Hugh2]

Lets just trade everyone.  Duran, Bregman, Chapman, Campbell, Narvaez, Bello, Wong, Giolito.  Clean house. 

[Hugh2]

If the Sox did become sellers, the return they could get for even just Buehler and Chapman would be enticing. 

Duran makes sense to make room for Anthony.  I know people would probably rather trade Rafaela but you're going to get a lot more for Duran.  And the Sox really could use a pitcher. 

Could we see a little selling and buying this summer? I wouldn't mind selling Duran/Buehler and bringing in a good starting pitcher with an extra year of control.  

[TedYazPapiMookie]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

If the Sox did become sellers, the return they could get for even just Buehler and Chapman would be enticing. 

Duran makes sense to make room for Anthony.  I know people would probably rather trade Rafaela but you're going to get a lot more for Duran.  And the Sox really could use a pitcher. 

Could we see a little selling and buying this summer? I wouldn't mind selling Duran/Buehler and bringing in a good starting pitcher with an extra year of control.  

The only lead-off man on the team is Duran and after Mookie was given away, we struggled a lot at the lead off position.  Good lead off men are hard to find.  Rafaela is the best defender on the team, so he needs to stay too.  Abreu is completely expendable with Anthony.  Buehler being traded rather than re-signed is a step backward.  He's better than Giolito or any of the home-grown pitchers.  He's a true #2 not #1 but since we have Crochet, it's fine that he's a #2.  Ideally, we need to dump salary with Story and Yoshida and try for another #1 or #2 SP so our top 3 are excellent and reliable and then Giolito can be the #4 and maybe one of the farm guys can step up and be the #5.

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

The only lead-off man on the team is Duran and after Mookie was given away, we struggled a lot at the lead off position.  Good lead off men are hard to find.  Rafaela is the best defender on the team, so he needs to stay too.  Abreu is completely expendable with Anthony.  Buehler being traded rather than re-signed is a step backward.  He's better than Giolito or any of the home-grown pitchers.  He's a true #2 not #1 but since we have Crochet, it's fine that he's a #2.  Ideally, we need to dump salary with Story and Yoshida and try for another #1 or #2 SP so our top 3 are excellent and reliable and then Giolito can be the #4 and maybe one of the farm guys can step up and be the #5.

I would trade Abreu over Rafaela or Duran as well I just mentioned Duran because his name has been floated around.  To be fair, at the end of the day, no one is untradeable for the right price.  Duran does get you the most. 

I don't believe anyone is taking on Yoshida or Story's contract.  You'd have to subsidize most of it, so it wouldn't be much of a salary dump.  Sox would likely have to part with high quality prospects to get 1/2 that money off their books.  Or take a contract back.  And if they're not bringing back quality pieces to compete now, it's really a waste to shed the salary (unless they can get under the cap and reset)

Buehler is not a #2.  I'm sorry but he's not.  I was a fan of the signing, and he might be again at some point, maybe even this year, but despite a very good playoff run last year Buehler has not pitched like a #1 or #2 since 2021.  He's also a free agent at the end of this year heading into his age 31 season. You're either going to Q.O. him or trade him, if the season looks lost you trade him.  

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, vegasbob said:

Not really a cheap tactic.   Would you swap Duran for Anthony heads up right now, if that was the only choice? 

To unload Story and Masa in one move would provide mucho dinero for FA's  this winter.  

And to be sure, I am a fan of Duran unlike many of his teammates

The problem is that Sox ownership has more than enough money to outspend other teams regardless of dead money on the books if they have to DFA Story and/or Masa. They have a lot of money coming off the books this offseason and will be able to compete for any FA they want to. Trading Duran for salary relief is just mismanagement IMO. The reason you can trade him and not feel bad for it is because Anthony is there. It's not the reason you trade Duran and are happy to receive nothing in return.

[mvp 78]

35 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Lets just trade everyone.  Duran, Bregman, Chapman, Campbell, Narvaez, Bello, Wong, Giolito.  Clean house. 

Why would they trade Narvaez or Campbell? 

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

The only lead-off man on the team is Duran and after Mookie was given away, we struggled a lot at the lead off position.  Good lead off men are hard to find.  Rafaela is the best defender on the team, so he needs to stay too.  Abreu is completely expendable with Anthony.  Buehler being traded rather than re-signed is a step backward.  He's better than Giolito or any of the home-grown pitchers.  He's a true #2 not #1 but since we have Crochet, it's fine that he's a #2.  Ideally, we need to dump salary with Story and Yoshida and try for another #1 or #2 SP so our top 3 are excellent and reliable and then Giolito can be the #4 and maybe one of the farm guys can step up and be the #5.

Ohtani is the Dodgers lead off hitter. Anthony leads off for the WOOSox. The days of the traditional lead off hitter are over. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I would trade Abreu over Rafaela or Duran as well I just mentioned Duran because his name has been floated around.  To be fair, at the end of the day, no one is untradeable for the right price.  Duran does get you the most. 

I don't believe anyone is taking on Yoshida or Story's contract.  You'd have to subsidize most of it, so it wouldn't be much of a salary dump.  Sox would likely have to part with high quality prospects to get 1/2 that money off their books.  Or take a contract back.  And if they're not bringing back quality pieces to compete now, it's really a waste to shed the salary (unless they can get under the cap and reset)

Buehler is not a #2.  I'm sorry but he's not.  I was a fan of the signing, and he might be again at some point, maybe even this year, but despite a very good playoff run last year Buehler has not pitched like a #1 or #2 since 2021.  He's also a free agent at the end of this year heading into his age 31 season. You're either going to Q.O. him or trade him, if the season looks lost you trade him.  

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Why would they trade Narvaez or Campbell? 

Accidentally caught up in the trading fervor…

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Accidentally caught up in the trading fervor…

I think it's time we had a conversation about calling up Slugger straight from Portland. 

 

[notin]

17 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

This could be similar to the Sox and Dodgers of 2012. San Diego gets Duran, but they must also take Masa and Story. The Sox get little to nothing in return except having Masa and Story off their books.

Duran and Story to SD for Jake Cronenworth and pitching prospects Kash Mayfield and Humberto Cruz.. 

Story and Cronenworth have similar money left…

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think it's time we had a conversation about calling up Slugger straight from Portland. 

 

Ok.  Let’s not do it. 
 

Short conversation…

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Ok.  Let’s not do it. 
 

Short conversation…

"Wally... It's ovah... The second we brought you into the dugout, they got even worse..." 

[drewski6]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

Accidentally caught up in the trading fervor…

Because they popped and couldnt stop

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

"Wally... It's ovah... The second we brought you into the dugout, they got even worse..." 

The Sox should have stuck with the shopping carts.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

The Sox should have stuck with the shopping carts.

Maybe go back to spitting at the fans like Teddy Ballgame. 

[Hugh2]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Why would they trade Narvaez or Campbell? 

italics. 

[mvp 78]

43 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

italics. 

Do italics mean something around here now? 

[Hugh2]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Do italics mean something around here now? 

are italics still the international symbol for sarcasm on the world wide webs?