The 1B Predicament

[TedYazPapiMookie]

39 minutes ago, notin said:

Oh no! My baseball acumen was challenged by a random person on the Internet!

Not my fault you like fielding percentage, but it’s a useless stat.  If it was worthwhile, no one would have bothered with other fielding metrics.  But fielding percentage has some massive, gaping flaws that no one takes it seriously. That’s not my fault and not yours. But that doesn’t change the facts…

Again, baseball acumen.  Your words show how much you don't understand about the game.  I wrote a long explanation of the difference between statcast BS and statistics created from baseball games.  Educate yourself and provide feedback on it because you might simply have not met real baseball people just other young naive people who call themselves fans due to their interest but never really played or understood what is important in the game.  I like what-if scenarios as much as the next guy, but I also realize that it's just a gross estimate and not a reality like a batting average or fielding percentage.

Let me ask you one simple two-part question to measure your understanding of the game of baseball.

What is the goal of a fielder, and which aspect of his job is the most critical to measure?

I probably should make this multiple choice, but it won't tell me as much about your concept of the game.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Moving Rafaela to 2b is a waste. His only value is CF defense.

I agree. I was asking how we can call up Anthony and Mayer to play FT and still play Rafaela FT.

I suggested one option that kinda makes the point, we cannot do it.

[dgalehouse]

The fans who are into advanced metrics ,WAR , Baseball savant,etc. are doing what they love.  The traditional baseball card stats are not enough for them. They need more and more stats, data and analysis. Nothing is ever enough.  And that's okay. No problem. I just don't want to see baseball as that complicated. And I cannot agree with the downplaying of a pitcher's wins, losses and saves since winning or losing  is actually the whole reason for playing the game. 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

What is the goal of a fielder, and which aspect of his job is the most critical to measure?

To make as many plays as humanly possible, and the biggest plus is to make plays nobody else can make or that most don't make- same as a batter tries to hit better than the opps do, and pitchers try to pitch better than the opps do, so your team has a better chance at winnings.

Making less errors is important, and that is factored into fielding metrics, too.

There is no way you can ever convince me that Jeter, making 20 less errors than a guy who made 140 more plays in less innings, is the better defender. Jeter beat most other fielders by 2-3% in flg %, but made 10-20% less plays than almost every other SS with a large sample size.

To me, it's not even close.

I used to play 2B, next to a guy who was a magician on defense at SS. I saw first hand, how superb plays make a huge difference in games. He may have made an equal share of errors, but he was a tremendous difference make on our team. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

4 hours ago, notin said:

Campbell is hitting under .200 now?

Actually locking up younger players early is an excellent strategy (and not one done by the White Sox as often as other teams).  If Campbell becomes a good player, you have him cheap.  But if he doesn’t work out or is just average, his contract actually isn’t prohibitive.  Hes paid like a league average to bad player already.  
 

Where in Chicago?  I’m out here too…

If someone wrote a book about the normal progression of prospects that get promoted to the MLB it would suggest that Campbell is experiencing a normal promotion.  Think back to many of the Red Sox promoted over the years and even guys like Griffey and Trout.  Here are the steps:

1 - Player gets promoted and starts out hot because pitchers don't have a book on him.

2- A book gets developed with teams cooperating in sharing their experience with regard to the player.

3- The players stats drop dramatically as teams adjust to what they've learned about him.

4- The hitting coaches work with the player to help him make his adjustments to what the opponents have learned about him and his stats start to rise.

5- Repeat the cycle the rest of his career.

 

This is why when fans beg for Anthony and Mayer and start discounting guys like Campbell and Rafaela and even Duran, it's just wrong.  The cycle happens to everyone.  The great ones make adjustments down the road and suddenly have break out seasons like Duran did and Mookie did and Devers did.  The better the farm system history of the player the more likely they will break out.  Campbell had a Mookie-like farm system experience so he will bounce back and have a break-out sometime down the road.  Hopefully, sooner rather than later.  Duran has already made adjustments, and his numbers are climbing again.

When Anthony and Mayer arrive expect the same initial hot streak followed by the same cold streak and watch the adjustment process occur.  The breakout when it comes will dictate at what level the player will create a standard plateau for his skills.  Mookie jumped to elite all-star.  Devers jumped to above league average hitter but never repaired his defense.  Duran improved on defense and jumped to a near perennial all-star offensive level.  

I think you are seeing Rafaela maturing into an above league average player with upside that could lead to being an all-star level player.  His defense is already JBJ-like, his Ks dropped dramatically, and his run production is returning to his 2024 level as third best on the team while hitting out of the 9 hole.  

This team has a ton of talent that should mature in 2026 or 2027.  Give the young guys time to experience the cycle of development and come out the other end with their break-out years.

 

[moonslav59]

Just now, dgalehouse said:

The fans who are into advanced metrics ,WAR , Baseball savant,etc. are doing what they love.  The traditional baseball card stats are not enough for them. They need more and more stats, data and analysis. Nothing is ever enough.  And that's okay. No problem. I just don't want to see baseball as that complicated. And I cannot agree with the downplaying of a pitcher's wins, losses and saves since winning or losing  is actually the whole reason for playing the game. 

Armchair psychoanalysis of people you don't even know is bound to miss the mark.

Downplaying team wins in favor of pitching wins is short-sighted and just plain wrong.

Who is downplaying saves? Some are pointing out the arbitrariness of the rules that establish what a save is, but everyone knows keeping late leads is an extremely essential part of what makes a team good or great. So are SP'ers who put their team in a position to win more often than not.

[dgalehouse]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Armchair psychoanalysis of people you don't even know is bound to miss the mark.

Downplaying team wins in favor of pitching wins is short-sighted and just plain wrong.

Who is downplaying saves? Some are pointing out the arbitrariness of the rules that establish what a save is, but everyone knows keeping late leads is an extremely essential part of what makes a team good or great. So are SP'ers who put their team in a position to win more often than not.

A pitching win is a team win. You can't have a team win without a pitching win.  Look at last night. Crochet and Sale went head to head. Crochet pitched very well, but Sale outdueled him and got the win. Braves won, Sox lost.  Maybe sometimes the wrong pitcher gets credit for it, but that doesn't change the standings.  And a save is simply the closer " saving " the win for another pitcher. It is very critical for a team's success. In the end, you either win or you lose. That is what matters.

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, notin said:

They are and always have been opinions. In fact, the MLB rule book defines them as opinions.

So what?  Balls and strikes and out and safe are opinions too.  

 

 

[notin]

5 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Again, baseball acumen.  Your words show how much you don't understand about the game.  I wrote a long explanation of the difference between statcast BS and statistics created from baseball games.  Educate yourself and provide feedback on it because you might simply have not met real baseball people just other young naive people who call themselves fans due to their interest but never really played or understood what is important in the game.  I like what-if scenarios as much as the next guy, but I also realize that it's just a gross estimate and not a reality like a batting average or fielding percentage.

Let me ask you one simple two-part question to measure your understanding of the game of baseball.

What is the goal of a fielder, and which aspect of his job is the most critical to measure?

I probably should make this multiple choice, but it won't tell me as much about your concept of the game.

The goal of a fielder is to make an out.  But in your world, the goal of a fielder is to not make an error, even if it means not trying.

Now my turn - what does batting average measure?

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Official scorers are a lot more favorable towards the hitters then they used to be IMO.

Sure, but if there are fewer errors charged now, it just means making errors is even worse now.

[Bellhorn04]

This is a dumb argument.  Making errors on basic plays is still bad, always has been and always will be.  Range is a totally separate thing.  And getting charged with an error on a really tough play is a mistake by the scorer.  This is all Captain Obvious material.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So what?  Balls and strikes and out and safe are opinions too.  

 

 

They are for now.  Fair and foul balls are also defined as umpire discretion.

But if you read rule 9.12 about errors, the standard it’s weighed against isnt defined as rigidly as a foul line or even as theoretically as a strike zone.  It’s measured against the abilities of an average player - what exactly is that!

[Bellhorn04]

The 2024-2025 Red Sox aren't leading the planet in errors because of their superior range, that's for sure.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

They are for now.  Fair and foul balls are also defined as umpire discretion.

But if you read rule 9.12 about errors, the standard it’s weighed against isnt defined as rigidly as a foul line or even as theoretically as a strike zone.  It’s measured against the abilities of an average player - what exactly is that!

Advanced defensive metrics are measured against the average too.  Should we toss them too?

 

[illinoisredsox]

1 hour ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

I grew up in an era with Sandberg and Ripken and I played infield so my perspective is different than yours.

You have absolutely no idea what moon’s baseball background is or anyone else’s for that matter.  Most played the game at some point at varying levels.  They just don’t feel the need to post a condescending argument from authority (allegedly, we have no idea if you are being truthful about your background or not) the length of a novel every time to boast about it.  I’ve yet to see a single post from you where you agree with anyone.

You have some good points at times, but your nose is so high in the air you can’t see that others may have some too.  

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

This is a dumb argument.  Making errors on basic plays is still bad, always has been and always will be.  Range is a totally separate thing.  And getting charged with an error on a really tough play is a mistake by the scorer.  This is all Captain Obvious material.

It’s not a dumb argument.  The point is errors are overrated as a defensive stat, but that’s not some defense of the Sox, well, defense.

As I said earlier, most metrics probably corroborate they’re not good defensively.  And the bottom line is, errors or not, plays aren’t being made.

Maybe pitching isnt thr Sox problem at all? Maybe the inability of their defense to make outs on balls put in play is.  If the latter is true, upgrades to the rotation and pen won’t fix much, will they?

[notin]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Advanced defensive metrics are measured against the average too.  Should we toss them too?

 

Being measured against average isnt the same as being measured against the scorer’s interpretation of the ability of an average player to make a play…

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Being measured against average isnt the same as being measured staring the scorer’s interpretation of the ability of an average player to make a play…

Some day we'll have robot scorers too.

The fact is, a very high pct. of errors are not disputed by anyone.

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Maybe pitching isnt thr Sox problem at all? Maybe the inability of their defense to make outs on balls put in play is.  If the latter is true, upgrades to the rotation and pen won’t fix much, will they?

Or maybe the bullpen pitching is bad and the fielding is bad too.  I tend to think both can easily be true.  I'm not into reductionism, personally.  

[Bellhorn04]

Base running errors are also a matter of opinion.  Most of those are obvious too.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

59 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

You have absolutely no idea what moon’s baseball background is or anyone else’s for that matter.  Most played the game at some point at varying levels.  They just don’t feel the need to post a condescending argument from authority (allegedly, we have no idea if you are being truthful about your background or not) the length of a novel every time to boast about it.  I’ve yet to see a single post from you where you agree with anyone.

You have some good points at times, but your nose is so high in the air you can’t see that others may have some too.  

Valuable feedback.  Did you once notice that most comments to me that start with an insult are handled differently than the ones that are not?  The attitude of the received response drives the attitude of my response.  I've had very enjoyable exchanges on this site with many adults that want to talk baseball and not insult my previous comment.    

Let me ask.  How would you explain your knowledge level on a financial blog?  Wouldn't you explain your background a bit so others would know where you are coming from with your opinions?  Or is that condescending too?  Maybe it's just the concept of having adult conversations that make you uncomfortable?  

See, I assume everyone has a basis for their opinions.  Sharing that helps the reader understand the comments and gives them context.  That's why your comments appear to be so out of line.  Should I apologize for being rooted in baseball for over 50 years?  

This was an insulting note from you and yet I politely responded to the insults.  Call it a freebie because insults are not acceptable to me.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The 2024-2025 Red Sox aren't leading the planet in errors because of their superior range, that's for sure.

I disagree. Both Bregman and Story have exceptional range. If you can't see that watching the games, maybe you need a larger TV.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I disagree. Both Bregman and Story have exceptional range. If you can't see that watching the games, maybe you need a larger TV.

So you believe the main reason the Red Sox lead baseball in errors is because of range?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So you believe the main reason the Red Sox lead baseball in errors is because of range?

That's part of it. The other part is not having a good defensive 1st baseman. How many throwing errors did Rizzo prevent during his career? I'm guessing a ton.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

That's part of it. The other part is not having a good defensive 1st baseman. How many throwing errors did Rizzo prevent during his career? I'm guessing a ton.

All I'm really saying is, errors may be overrated, as has been discussed at length here, but the Red Sox leading in baseball in errors this year, and a close second last year, is still a bad thing.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

All I'm really saying is, errors may be overrated, as has been discussed at length here, but the Red Sox leading in baseball in errors this year, and a close second last year, is still a bad thing.

Lou Merloni made an interesting comment regarding Devers. According to Lou, Devers had much better range going to his right than going to his left. Playing 3rd base this was not ideal. Otoh, it would have been a strength if he was playing 1st base.

IOW, Devers should never have been a 3rd baseman, which has been proven to be true.

[illinoisredsox]

Mike Lowell was on a podcast the other day and was asked several questions about Devers and 1st base.  He said he (Lowell) thought that Devers’ ceiling was possibly gold glove level (I’m not sure I believe that, but since Lowell was a Gold Glover and most assuredly I was not, I’m in no position to dispute it).  He was also asked how long he thought it would take Devers to learn 1st Base; his answer was about 2 days, and yes, there would be some errors the first 2-3 weeks. The host also asked Lowell how long he thought it would take a guy like Bryce Harper to adapt; he said 2 weeks because Harper was an outfielder.

It sounds like the point is moot, but an interesting perspective from a guy who’s been there.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

7 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

Mike Lowell was on a podcast the other day and was asked several questions about Devers and 1st base.  He said he (Lowell) thought that Dever’s ceiling was possibly gold glove level (I’m not sure I believe that, but since Lowell was a Gold Glover and most assuredly was not, I’m in no position to dispute it).  He was also asked how long he thought it would take Dever’s to learn 1st Base; his answer was about 2 days, and yes, there would be some errors the first 2-3 weeks. The host also asked Lowell how long he thought it would take a guy like Bryce Harper to adapt; he said 2 weeks because Harper was an outfielder.

It sounds like the point is moot, but an interesting perspective from a guy who’s been there.

Interesting,because Merloni did get moved to 1st base after playing the other infield positions and he said it took him about 2 games to feel comfortable at 1st.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

A pitching win is a team win. You can't have a team win without a pitching win.  

You can have a pitcher get a win by allowing 10 runs in 1 IP.

But, hey, you are right.

[notin]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Or maybe the bullpen pitching is bad and the fielding is bad too.  I tend to think both can easily be true.  I'm not into reductionism, personally.  

I agree.  It’s not necessarily one flaw.  But it is possible one flaw severely masks another, and given how we attribute every hit to the pitcher, defense is a very possible culprit…