What's Changed for Jarren Duran?

[Thomas Healy]

A disclaimer before I start, Duran has a history of starting off slow. So, what we're seeing now from him isn't an anomaly by any means. In April and May last season, he slashed 262/324/448/772. These numbers are respectable at best and don't reflect Duran's true offensive value. It wasn't until June last year when Duran started to turn things around offensively, accumulating a 1.064 OPS with 7 HRs. Therefore, it's not a stretch to say Jarren will heat up in the summer months as he typically does. Still, Jarren's numbers are down quite noticeably this season even with the small sample size. Let's break it down:

• Jarren has struggled mightily vs lefties; He is whiffing 32% of the time while mustering a distasteful .263 OBP against southpaws; he has always struggled against with the lefty/lefty matchup, but for some reason this year he hasn't been picking them up as easy
• It's not a contact issue, as his Barrel% vs LHP is actually better than it is vs RHP (7.7% vs 5.9%) as well as most other contact/outcome stats
• Rather, it is a plate discipline issue. Duran is walking only 3.5% vs LHP and 5.2% overall. The league average is 8.8%. Jarren's O-Z contact% vs LHP is 52.3, 16th percentile in the league
• So, he's driving balls in the zone well against lefties, but for whatever reason he is swinging and missing more than last year on balls. I'm not sure if this is a mechanics issue or a new approach, or maybe he's just not picking up the pitch out of the hand as easy.
• Duran's struggle on pitches outside of the zone vs LHP mostly comes down to two pitches: inside fastballs and outside sliders. Conversely, against RHP it's the low changeup
• The fastball/slider combo from LHP completely has Duran out of wack--he's hitting 188/235/313 vs LHP fastballs and owns a 43% K rate vs LHP sliders--not good:(
• I'd like to see Jarren wait for lefties to come in the zone on him; this might mean taking until the pitcher throws a strike. Correspondingly, waiting for his pitch might translate to more walks=more steals=more runs!

Thanks for reading and let's hope Jarren can get the burners going as the season heats up. F*ck 'em!

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 hours ago, Thomas Healy said:

A disclaimer before I start, Duran has a history of starting off slow. So, what we're seeing now from him isn't an anomaly by any means. In April and May last season, he slashed 262/324/448/772. These numbers are respectable at best and don't reflect Duran's true offensive value. It wasn't until June last year when Duran started to turn things around offensively, accumulating a 1.064 OPS with 7 HRs. Therefore, it's not a stretch to say Jarren will heat up in the summer months as he typically does. Still, Jarren's numbers are down quite noticeably this season even with the small sample size. Let's break it down:

• Jarren has struggled mightily vs lefties; He is whiffing 32% of the time while mustering a distasteful .263 OBP against southpaws; he has always struggled against with the lefty/lefty matchup, but for some reason this year he hasn't been picking them up as easy
• It's not a contact issue, as his Barrel% vs LHP is actually better than it is vs RHP (7.7% vs 5.9%) as well as most other contact/outcome stats
• Rather, it is a plate discipline issue. Duran is walking only 3.5% vs LHP and 5.2% overall. The league average is 8.8%. Jarren's O-Z contact% vs LHP is 52.3, 16th percentile in the league
• So, he's driving balls in the zone well against lefties, but for whatever reason he is swinging and missing more than last year on balls. I'm not sure if this is a mechanics issue or a new approach, or maybe he's just not picking up the pitch out of the hand as easy.
• Duran's struggle on pitches outside of the zone vs LHP mostly comes down to two pitches: inside fastballs and outside sliders. Conversely, against RHP it's the low changeup
• The fastball/slider combo from LHP completely has Duran out of wack--he's hitting 188/235/313 vs LHP fastballs and owns a 43% K rate vs LHP sliders--not good:(
• I'd like to see Jarren wait for lefties to come in the zone on him; this might mean taking until the pitcher throws a strike. Correspondingly, waiting for his pitch might translate to more walks=more steals=more runs!

Thanks for reading and let's hope Jarren can get the burners going as the season heats up. F*ck 'em!

Welcome to Talk Sox!

[moonslav59]

We really cannot afford to have two platoon OF'ers who are awful vs lefties. Carrying one guy like Refsnyder can be very useful, but I can't see having 2 of the 4 bench slots going to short-side platoon OF bats. One is for a catcher and one has to be for an infielder.

One hope is that Anthony can continue his good splist vs L's and R's, if and when he is promoted. Rafaela seems equally bad vs L's & R's, so counting him as a "platoon bat" is a bit deceptive. His defense does make up for much, if not all of his lack of O.

This looks pretty good, in isolation, but the roster suffers greatly by having 5 OF'ers.

LF: Anthony

CF: Duran-Rafaela platoon

RF: Abreu-Refsnyder platoon
 

Since Campbell can play CF, having 5 OF'ers does not really make sense, especially with Mayer beating down the door for a middle infield shot. Also, Rafaela's ability to play a decent 2B and close to passable SS, does help give Cora some flexibility, if he goes this way.

Some tough choices lie ahead.

[mvp 78]

We've had some bad first posts, but this is not one of them. 

I am also waiting to see if he'll heat up in June. I don't expect him to repeat 2024, but if he gets back to 2023 Duran, he's still a valuable guy at the top of the lineup. Right now, his metrics look similar to 2023, is BABIP is just a lot lower (good luck in '23 mixed with bad luck in '25?). 

I think his career low HR/FB% should turn around as the weather heats up since he's still hitting the ball hard. 

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We really cannot afford to have two platoon OF'ers who are awful vs lefties. Carrying one guy like Refsnyder can be very useful, but I can't see having 2 of the 4 bench slots going to short-side platoon OF bats. One is for a catcher and one has to be for an infielder.

One hope is that Anthony can continue his good splist vs L's and R's, if and when he is promoted. Rafaela seems equally bad vs L's & R's, so counting him as a "platoon bat" is a bit deceptive. His defense does make up for much, if not all of his lack of O.

This looks pretty good, in isolation, but the roster suffers greatly by having 5 OF'ers.

LF: Anthony

CF: Duran-Rafaela platoon

RF: Abreu-Refsnyder platoon
 

Since Campbell can play CF, having 5 OF'ers does not really make sense, especially with Mayer beating down the door for a middle infield shot. Also, Rafaela's ability to play a decent 2B and close to passable SS, does help give Cora some flexibility, if he goes this way.

Some tough choices lie ahead.

Thoughtful, as always.  

I'm not against platooning, but must point out that the Sox so far are hitting lefties--OPS .773--a lot better than righties--OPS .735.    However, the Sox so far have had 1157 at bats vs righties and just 334 at bats vs lefties.  

Here are the OPS's vs righties (and against lefties in paretheses)--

Abreu  1.008 (.515)

Bregman .954 (.933) 

Devers  .943 (.804)

Refsnyder .833  (1.015)

Gonzalez  .828  (.707)

Campbell  .789  (.593)

Duran   .721  (.572) 

Rafaela  .669  (.644)

Narvaez .639 (.976)

Toro  .563  (.000)

Story . 549 (1.073)  

Hamilton .469 (.500) 

Wong  .355 (.650) 

One foolish footnote.  Am I the only one who knows that Ref started as a secondbaseman and has played every infield position except SS and every outfield position?  Why isn't he at 1b?  

 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Thoughtful, as always.  

I'm not against platooning, but must point out that the Sox so far are hitting lefties--OPS .773--a lot better than righties--OPS .735.    However, the Sox so far have had 1157 at bats vs righties and just 334 at bats vs lefties.  

That's 23% of PA's vs LHP vs 29% of PA's vs LHP for all of last season. Slightly lower than what we could expect to see as the season shakes out, but nothing extreme. 

[Maxbialystock]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's 23% of PA's vs LHP vs 29% of PA's vs LHP for all of last season. Slightly lower than what we could expect to see as the season shakes out, but nothing extreme. 

Agree.  

What about Ref at first base?  I'm convinced that Breslow's campaign to force Devers to play first base has nothing to do with available resources and everything to do with moving Yoshida into the DH slot.  

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Agree.  

What about Ref at first base?  I'm convinced that Breslow's campaign to force Devers to play first base has nothing to do with available resources and everything to do with moving Yoshida into the DH slot.  

They put Ref at first for a few days in ST last season and then also had him forever throw away his 1b mitt. Didn't use him at all last season even when they were running through Cooper and Dom Smith. Why? IDK. 227 career innings in MLB. 99 innings in AAA.

[harmony]

Most rest-of-season projections have Jarred Duran returning near his career wRC+ of 109 from his current wRC+ of 85:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF#dashboard

Duran's outstanding 2024 season was reminiscent of Darin Erstad's 2000 season and Jacoby Ellsbury's 2011 season. It's hard to maintain that level of production.

[notin]

53 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Agree.  

What about Ref at first base?  I'm convinced that Breslow's campaign to force Devers to play first base has nothing to do with available resources and everything to do with moving Yoshida into the DH slot.  

Well, moving Yoshida to DH does have some merit.  He’s already here and already paid for.  And it’s not like Yoshida a bad hitter.  Sure, Devers is a better DH than Yoshida, but he’s also a better first baseman and by a wider margin than Abraham Toro and Rob Refsnyder

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Remember, Duran led the team in strikeouts last year, even in his All-Star MVP season, but he also led the majors in plate appearances. What I don't recall is him whiffing on so many Strike Threes on fastballs above the zone.

I don't have stats for that, just eyes -- but I did look up what has seemed automatic lately: Duran fanning leading off the game... 31% so far, compared to 26% last season (so pitchers have edited the book on him slightly... his overall K-rate is just above 21% in both '24 and '25).

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Most rest-of-season projections have Jarred Duran returning near his career wRC+ of 109 from his current wRC+ of 85:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF#dashboard

Duran's outstanding 2024 season was reminiscent of Darin Erstad's 2000 season and Jacoby Ellsbury's 2011 season. It's hard to maintain that level of production.

There are also many examples of a player having a massive breakout season, and then doing very well, afterwards, even if never as good again.

Also, Duran's 2024 season was great, but his 2023 season was on pace for being pretty close to '24. He had almost exactly half the PAs due in part to an injury, and these are the two seasons with 2023 x 2:

2023: .295  16  80 (72 2B+3B & 48 SBs) .828 OPS

2024: .285 21  75 (62 2B+3B & 34 SBs) .834 OPS

It's a 262 game sample size of nearly 1100 PAs with an .832 OPS.

I'm not all that worried about a 6 week slow start.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Well, moving Yoshida to DH does have some merit.  He’s already here and already paid for.  And it’s not like Yoshida a bad hitter.  Sure, Devers is a better DH than Yoshida, but he’s also a better first baseman and by a wider margin than Abraham Toro and Rob Refsnyder

We don't know if Devers is a better first baseman than Dave O'Brien TBH. 

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

We don't know if Devers is a better first baseman than Dave O'Brien TBH. 

It just amazes me how many fans just assume that Devers will be any resemblance of a good 1B just because he played 3B, and many have made the move across the diamond, and were adequate, or better. I’ve heard that throwing was Raffy’s biggest problem, and he won’t have to throw much at 1B, which is true. The questions to me will how will his footwork be receiving throws, and digging throws out of the dirt? How would Raffy be at turning the 3-6-3 DP? How will he be at leading the pitcher to the bag after fielding a grounder. Nothing he did at 3B gives me any reason to think he will be good at those things at 1B. What may look good on paper doesn’t always work out on the field.

[Thomas Healy]

Thanks for the replies and ideas everyone. I am curious as to which metrics/stats sites you guys frequent the most. I think baseball savant is good but it is limited in what it can provide. Is there one all-encompassing site that you always go to or is it more a variety?

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It just amazes me how many fans just assume that Devers will be any resemblance of a good 1B just because he played 3B, and many have made the move across the diamond, and were adequate, or better. I’ve heard that throwing was Raffy’s biggest problem, and he won’t have to throw much at 1B, which is true. The questions to me will how will his footwork be receiving throws, and digging throws out of the dirt? How would Raffy be at turning the 3-6-3 DP? How will he be at leading the pitcher to the bag after fielding a grounder. Nothing he did at 3B gives me any reason to think he will be good at those things at 1B. What may look good on paper doesn’t always work out on the field.

I don’t think anyone said Devers would be a GOOD first baseman, just that he could move there.  First all, he’d be replacing Casas, so the bar is pretty low.  Second, getting Yoshida into the lineup and Toro -who’s also not a good 1b - out has to be a good thing…;

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It just amazes me how many fans just assume that Devers will be any resemblance of a good 1B just because he played 3B, and many have made the move across the diamond, and were adequate, or better. I’ve heard that throwing was Raffy’s biggest problem, and he won’t have to throw much at 1B, which is true. The questions to me will how will his footwork be receiving throws, and digging throws out of the dirt? How would Raffy be at turning the 3-6-3 DP? How will he be at leading the pitcher to the bag after fielding a grounder. Nothing he did at 3B gives me any reason to think he will be good at those things at 1B. What may look good on paper doesn’t always work out on the field.

Also, while he's spending time working on his fielding at 1b, what happens to his hitting? Are we just going to assume he'll still hit at a high level at least in the short term? 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Thomas Healy said:

Thanks for the replies and ideas everyone. I am curious as to which metrics/stats sites you guys frequent the most. I think baseball savant is good but it is limited in what it can provide. Is there one all-encompassing site that you always go to or is it more a variety?

Savant, bref, Fangraphs... I use all three as needed for different reasons. I don't think there is one site that does everything perfectly. 

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Also, while he's spending time working on his fielding at 1b, what happens to his hitting? Are we just going to assume he'll still hit at a high level at least in the short term? 

If going to DH was any example I would say no.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

We don't know if Devers is a better first baseman than Dave O'Brien TBH. 

For sure. I'm pretty sure he can't or won't be any worse than Casas. (The bar is set very low, on this.)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

If going to DH was any example I would say no.

He's having a pretty good year: best career OPS+, so far.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's having a pretty good year: best career OPS+, so far.

The response was to short term, which Devers started out in the land of futility this year. Adjusting to DH might have had something to do with that. 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The response was to short term, which Devers started out in the land of futility this year. Adjusting to DH might have had something to do with that. 

Maybe. I guess it's okay for you to assume.

BTW, who "assumed" Devers would be okay or good at 1B? The strawman?

Some said he can't be worse than Casas.

Some said they think he could be okay after a short while and maybe average or plus after a while.

I don't recall anyone saying he'd be good or knowing he'd be good.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe. I guess it's okay for you to assume.

BTW, who "assumed" Devers would be okay or good at 1B? The strawman?

Some said he can't be worse than Casas.

Some said they think he could be okay after a short while and maybe average or plus after a while.

I don't recall anyone saying he'd be good or knowing he'd be good.

Raffy is fine right where he is right now, and I believe Cora agrees with that assessment, and that is why Cora said he wasn’t even going to talk with Raffy about trying 1B. 

 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Raffy is fine right where he is right now, and I believe Cora agrees with that assessment, and that is why Cora said he wasn’t even going to talk with Raffy about trying 1B. 

 

I'm all for leaving Devers at DH forevers, including short term.

I'd put Campbell at 1B and call up Mayer for some FT middle infield action.

I'd call up Anthony, too.

Just my opinions- not predictions.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm all for leaving Devers at DH forevers, including short term.

I'd put Campbell at 1B and call up Mayer for some FT middle infield action.

I'd call up Anthony, too.

Just my opinions- not predictions.

 

 I think Brez is studying the old Bloom playbook, and looking for that 3rd option in the fork in the road on what to do with this whole roster construction thing.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

 

 I think Brez is studying the old Bloom playbook, and looking for that 3rd option in the fork in the road on what to do with this whole roster construction thing.

I think Brez has done a very good job trying to fix the issues he inherited, but the Bregman signing did muddle things up for Cora, who had different ideas than Brez. It squeezed Yoshida, once Devers went to DH, so in that sense, it didn't ease the roster construction issue, at all, but building up rotation depth was a good idea, as we have already started our 10th or 11th SP'er on the winter depth chart.

I still think the pen construction was rather weak, and once again, we left our 1B depth thin by trading away Meidroth and Gasper, while seemingly being a bit overloaded in the OF and middle infield, if you count Anthony and Mayer as 2025 pieces.

It's not easy getting everything just right, and most teams will start the season with a few positions that are weak and or have weak looking depth.

If by "3rd option" you mean trading for a 1Bman, I'm not sure what is out there in mid May- maybe not much. Only 1 AL team is more than 5 games out of the WC. (4 NL teams are 7+ games back.)

[Maxbialystock]

On 5/13/2025 at 11:20 AM, mvp 78 said:

They put Ref at first for a few days in ST last season and then also had him forever throw away his 1b mitt. Didn't use him at all last season even when they were running through Cooper and Dom Smith. Why? IDK. 227 career innings in MLB. 99 innings in AAA.

A belated thank you.