A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Larry Cook]

7 and 7 in September.  Losing Anthony hurt badly 

[Larry Cook]

44 and 27 with Anthony.
 

39 and 43 without Anthony 

[Randy Red Sox]

On 9/16/2025 at 9:54 PM, illinoisredsox said:

Disagree on Tolle.  If he doesn't develop a second pitch, he has no future in MLB period.  Major League hitters will destroy him.  If he only develops a competent second pitch, he's a middle reliever at best.  He's a long way from being a major league starter right now and will need another year if not 2 in the minors.

Early didn't have overpowering stuff as a kid and thus learned early (no pun intended) how to use pitch selection and control to set hitters up.  Once he put on some weight, his fastball increased, but he still knows how to pitch.  His ceiling is probably a #3 because he doesn't have a devastating first pitch, but he can be very successful.

i don't disagree with any of this

[Randy Red Sox]

54 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

44 and 27 with Anthony.
 

39 and 43 without Anthony 

tells the story alright.  what is the record AFTER he went down?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

44 and 27 with Anthony.
 

39 and 43 without Anthony 

winning %:

.620 w Anthony

.727 in Dobbins's starts (.615 counting his 2 RP games.)

[Larry Cook]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

winning %:

.620 w Anthony

.727 in Dobbins's starts (.615 counting his 2 RP games.)

Anthony is a superstar in training 

I wish Bregman would step up in Anthony’s absence 

[moonslav59]

Every team we needed to lose lost, except CLE- the bastahds!

5 AL teams are bunched between a 2 game spread, and 6 AL teams are bunched between a 3.5 games spread.

86-68 NYY

85-69 DET & SEA

84-70 BOS & HOU

___________

82-71 CLE -1.5 (1 in loss column)

Note: CLE has tiebreaker with HOU! (NOT BOS)

 

 

[moonslav59]

Games remaining:

BOS: at TBR, at TBR, OFF, at TOR, at TOR, at TOR, DET, DET, DET

HOU: SEA, SEA, OFF, atATH, atATH, atATH, a LAA, atLAA, atLAA

CLE: atMN x 2, at MN, OFF, DET, DET, DET, TEX, TEX, TEX

DET: ATL, ATL, OFF, at CLE, at CLE, at CLE, at BOS, atBOS, atBOS

SEA: at HOU, at HOU, OFF, COL, COL, COL, LAD, LAD, LAD

NYY: at BAL, at BAL, OFF, CHW, CHW, CHW, BAL, BAL, BAL

It looks like the Yanks have the easiest road, with HOU next easiest, but it seems like these games never play out like you'd expect.

CLE plays a doubleheader tomorrow, and we will see where they stand in the loss column, tomorrow night. They have a rough last 9 games in 9 days.

SEA might luck out, if the LAD don't need to win in their last series.

DET might be about to have an epic choke year. They have a rough final 8 games, especially the last 6.

BOS has no easy schedule and could end up passing DET in the final series, as CLE sneaks into the playoffs.

I left TOR out, but a losing streak could put them back in the talks.

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox now have 8 batters above ,780 and 9 above .750. If you include a catcher and make it 10, we have 10 over .730. 

Of course, some are small sample sizes, platoon unbalanced or guys on the IL, but it's still pretty impressive.

.859 Anthony  (leads team in OPS)

.858 Refsnyder (leads team in SLG)

.830 Bregman (leads team in BB/K)

.815 Romy (leads team in OPS v LHPs)

.811 Abreu (leads team in ISO)

.787 Duran (leads team in XBHs & TB)

.784 Lowe (leads team in 1B defense)

.781 Eaton (leads team in OPS v RHPs)

.753 Story (leads team in HRs, RBI and SB)

.730 Narvaez (leads team in GIDP)

.693 Rafaela (leads team in SAC)

Looks like a bunch of leaders, to me.

[moonslav59]

Imagine at full health:

by Best Splits

vs RHPs/ vs LHPs

C: .724 Narvaez/,743 Narvaez

1B: .861 Lowe/985 Romy (Casas)

2B: .740 Mayer/.857 Sogard 

3B: .816 Bregman/.862 Bregman

SS: .759 Story/.738 Story

LF: .903 Anthony/.770 Anthony

CF: .910 Eaton/ .688 Rafaela

RF: .828 Abreu/.721 Abreu

DH: .871 Duran//974 Refsnyder (Casas)

 

[moonslav59]

Best ERAs

Rotation

0.87 Early

2.69 Crochet

3.34 Bello

3.46 Giolito

4.13 Dobbins

Pen

1.23 Chapman

1.86 Matz

2.35 Whitlock

2.74 Wilson

2.97 Weissert

3.14 Bernardino

3.64 Murphy

4.50 Slaten (others are better)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Key stat for the weekend: even after bombs given up by Crochet and Murphy last night, the Red Sox pitching staff has allowed the least home runs in the AL.

The Sox may have feasted off a rookie mound debut and the Rays mailing it in on defense, but don't overlook the clutch HRs by Bregman and Duran, which surely gave the dugout a big boost in building back confidence and figuring things out.

As long as either Harrison or Early keeps it in the ballpark in the next two days, gotta like the chances for another W, especially with Whitlock and Chapman rested and ready to go.

[moonslav59]

CLE plays a day-night doubleheader today, and they face two of MIN's best pitchers, although Ober is having a down year:

2:10 PM Cecconi 4.39 at Ryan 3.35

7:10 PM Allen 4.36 at OBer 5.12

1:10 PM ATL (Wentz 5.56) at DET (Montero 4.32)

7:05 PM NYY (Rodon 3.11) at BAL (Sugano 4.39)

7:10 PM SEA (Kirby 4.46) at HOU (Valdez 3.59)

7:10 PM TOR (Bieber 3.72) at KCR Cameron (2.98)

7:10 PM BOS (Harrison 4.05) at TBR (Houser 3.11)

 

[moonslav59]

Big win tonight.

HOU & DET are looking for an exit ramp.

CLE is playing like highway paved in gold.

What a crazy traffic pattern going on.

NYY could even catch TOR (-2.0)

BOS is -2.0 from NYY and -1.0 from SEA for the #3 slot.

87-68 NYY

86-69 SEA

85-70 BOS & DET

84-71 CLE & HOU

Only 5 of these 6 make it.

CLE has the tiebreaker w HOU, so count them as +1 on them. BOS has the tie breaker w CLE, so in a sense we are +2 on CLE. Three way tie: BOS, CLE & HOU, we are 8-4. If DET is part of the three way, uh-oh.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

87-68 NYY

86-69 SEA

85-70 BOS & DET

84-71 CLE & HOU

Only 5 of these 6 make it.

CLE has the tiebreaker w HOU, so count them as +1 on them. BOS has the tie breaker w CLE, so in a sense we are +2 on CLE. Three way tie: BOS, CLE & HOU, we are 8-4. If DET is part of the three way, uh-oh.

I think it's uh-oh for Detroit. Before the final series at Fenway, they have three in Cleveland that could decide the Central DIvision. 

Since the Guardians will never lose again, the Tigers could trudge into Boston facing elimination. But no matter what happens in that Cleveland series, either the Tigs or Guards will lose at least two... so the Sox could also go 1-2 in Toronto and pass one of them.

Of course, all those scenarios are dependent upon today, and all three, plus Houston, remaining status whoa. Or woe...

[moonslav59]

DET was up...

12.5 in early July

11.5 on AUG 23

10 on Sept 3

They are 5-12 in Sept and 1-9 in their last 10 games!

They are up 1.0, right now, with 1 more vs ATL, then on the road for 2 at CLE and 3 at BOS.

[dgalehouse]

          MLB has done a lot of stupid things in the past few years. The " ghost runner" for example.  But nothing has been dumber than the tiebreaker rule.   Two teams finish with the same record, but one goes to the playoffs and one does not because of the dumb tiebreaker. How ridiculous is that ? A one game play-in is so much more fun and so much more exciting.  

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

          MLB has done a lot of stupid things in the past few years. The " ghost runner" for example.  But nothing has been dumber than the tiebreaker rule.   Two teams finish with the same record, but one goes to the playoffs and one does not because of the dumb tiebreaker. How ridiculous is that ? A one game play-in is so much more fun and so much more exciting.  

Agreed, but they also have a couple teams waiting for the first round of the playoffs to end and TV dates and games schedule. They can't mess that up. I guess.

[dgalehouse]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, but they also have a couple teams waiting for the first round of the playoffs to end and TV dates and games schedule. They can't mess that up. I guess.

I don't think it is fair to the team or their fans to miss the playoffs due to a tiebreaker. I am pretty sure they could figure out how to work it into the schedule. It might be a little inconvenience, but they used to do it before they had three wild cards.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

I don't think it is fair to the team or their fans to miss the playoffs due to a tiebreaker. I am pretty sure they could figure out how to work it into the schedule. It might be a little inconvenience, but they used to do it before they had three wild cards.

I agree, but I also think these last teams in don't really deserve it, anyway, so my tears are of the crocodile variety.

[Maxbialystock]

On 9/19/2025 at 10:27 PM, Larry Cook said:

Anthony is a superstar in training 

I wish Bregman would step up in Anthony’s absence 

Love this discussion, as always, but am going to jump in with a slightly different thought.  The 2025 Sox are  different from all Sox teams I can remember because their pitching is primarily what wins games.  And right now it sure looks like they have 5 decent starters in Crochet, Bello, Giolito, Early, and now Harrison.  Plus a decent but not great bullpen.  After Chapman and Whitlock, not much reliability.  

Relatedly, I was the first to point out that the loss of Anthony was huge.  But since then I've developed a new thesis--while big bats can be invaluable, a bunch of smaller bats can in fact score runs as we have seen in the last two games.  Last night 5 different Sox bats had rbi's and the night before 7.  

And let's not forget the lineup's secondary mission of providing a good defense to back up the pitching.  Right now Rafaela is the best CF in MLB, Abreu, when he returns, is close to the best RF, and Narvaez the best C.  Plus Duran in LF, Bregman at 3b, and Story at SS all have plus DWAR's.  Hammond is an excellent defensive 2b, but Cora is right to start Gonzalez.  

Make no mistake:  I love big bats.  We all do.  But the Sox have thrived without Devers huge bat--OPS of .905 and he played in every single game until June 16--largely because of the Sox pitching.  In the August 7 game winning streak opposing teams scored 5, 1, 1, 3, 1, 5, and 2 runs.  In the July 10 game winning streak they scored 2, 3, 4, 3, 2, 2, 3, 4, 0, and 1 runs.  In the June 6 game winning streak they scored 1, 3, 1, 3, 0, and 0 runs.  In those same 6 games the Sox scored 3, 4, 2, 4, 2, and 2 runs.  

[moonslav59]

We'd have a much better chance with Anthony & Abreu in the line-up.

I'd add Casas, too, but I guess we have to assume he'd still be at .580 had he stayed healthy.

I also think Mayer might have become a force had he not gotten hurt.

[moonslav59]

No games in the American League, today.

6 games to go for everybody:

BOS: 3 at TOR & 3 v DET 

DET: 3 at CLE & 3 at BOS

CLE: 3 v DET & 3 v TEX

HOU: 3 at ATL & 3 at LAA

SEA: 3 v COL & 3 v LAD

NYY: 3 v CWS & 3 v BAL

While we play 3 at TOR, either DET or CLE will lose 2-3 games. Just win, baby!

 

[mvp 78]

Now that it's fall, will the Gourdians turn into pumpkins? 

[mvp 78]

They used to have a guy with a high barrel and ISO rate. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They used to have a guy with a high barrel and ISO rate. 

Now, all we have is one big pumpkin patch.

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Now, all we have is one big pumpkin patch.

 

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs playoff odds as of 9/22:

Red Sox 90%

Tigers 85%

Astros 65%

Guardians 60%

One of these teams is going to miss out. 

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

FanGraphs playoff odds as of 9/22:

Red Sox 90%

Tigers 85%

Astros 65%

Guardians 60%

One of these teams is going to miss out. 

In terms of strength of remaining schedule based on winning %, we have the hardest 6, then DET next.

[Kimmi]

On 9/18/2025 at 6:32 AM, cp176 said:

I’m still that guy.  I think that we need them both going forward.  

Agreed.  I'd like them both back next year, though I'm still against extending Bregman for more than an additional year.  Ideally, he'll choose not to opt out.  Also ideally, Gio will give us a break and pick up the mutual option.