A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Slaten is the reliever version of Paxton.

It's kinda early to know, but he has been out, too much.

Slaten finished 2nd in RP IP in '24 w 55. I'm not sure Paxton ever finished 2nd in IP on any team in any season.

[harmony]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's kinda early to know, but he has been out, too much.

Slaten finished 2nd in RP IP in '24 w 55. I'm not sure Paxton ever finished 2nd in IP on any team in any season.

James Paxton finished second in innings pitched on the 2017 Seattle Mariners, trailing only the immortal ... Ariel Miranda!

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2017&season=2017&qual=0&team=11&sortcol=7&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, harmony said:

James Paxton finished second in innings pitched on the 2017 Seattle Mariners, trailing only the immortal ... Ariel Miranda!

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2017&season=2017&qual=0&team=11&sortcol=7&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

Well, there you go. Once in what 15 seasons?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox offense is 2nd in the AL in runs per game and RBIs, 3rd in hits, batting average and on base percentage, and 4th in slugging and OPS.

But seriously, with men on base, when you need a hit... who do you really trust? 

BA w Men On Base: Romy .327, Bregman .310, Duran .302, Story .299, Anthony .297, Lowe .280 (w NL stats), Ref .270, Narvaez .261, Ceddanne .259, Abreu .256, Hamilton .230, KC .198, Yoshida .133, Wong .059.

Eaton and Garcia, batting 5th in the same week after getting called up from the minors: .000.

Story has been fairly consistent, but still leads the club in strikeouts. Romy's success is based on hitting lefties and Lowe's is based on righties. Duran has had a bad August after a good July, and Anthony has a high K-rate (from veteran umps forcing rookie swings after calling strikes on pitches clearly out of the zone). 

That leaves Bregman, our man with a plan. Early in counts he looks for a pitch he call pull in the air, but if he gets behind, he knows he can lace an oppo liner any time he wants. He may still be ineligible for the batting crown (time missed on the IL), but only three AL hitters have averages higher than his .305.

And so we mix and match. Has any other manager started so many "openers" in his batting order, with the specific intent of pinch-hitting for them later when it counts?

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

4 Games at BAL then home for 3 v PIT and 3 v CLE (No days off)

TOR: 3 v MN, off day, 3 v MIL and 3@CIN

NYY: 3 v WSH, 4@CWS and 3@HOU (No days off)

SEA: 3 v SDP, offday, 3@CLE and 3@TBR

HOU: off day, 3 v COL, 4 v LAA and 3 v NYY (all home games)

I'd say TOR and SEA have the toughest next 9-days. The rest are pretty close.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Red Sox offense is 2nd in the AL in runs per game and RBIs, 3rd in hits, batting average and on base percentage, and 4th in slugging and OPS.

But seriously, with men on base, when you need a hit... who do you really trust? 

BA w Men On Base: Romy .327, Bregman .310, Duran .302, Story .299, Anthony .297, Lowe .280 (w NL stats), Ref .270, Narvaez .261, Ceddanne .259, Abreu .256, Hamilton .230, KC .198, Yoshida .133, Wong .059.

Eaton and Garcia, batting 5th in the same week after getting called up from the minors: .000.

Story has been fairly consistent, but still leads the club in strikeouts. Romy's success is based on hitting lefties and Lowe's is based on righties. Duran has had a bad August after a good July, and Anthony has a high K-rate (from veteran umps forcing rookie swings after calling strikes on pitches clearly out of the zone). 

That leaves Bregman, our man with a plan. Early in counts he looks for a pitch he call pull in the air, but if he gets behind, he knows he can lace an oppo liner any time he wants. He may still be ineligible for the batting crown (time missed on the IL), but only three AL hitters have averages higher than his .305.

And so we mix and match. Has any other manager started so many "openers" in his batting order, with the specific intent of pinch-hitting for them later when it counts?

 

 

 

What's the solution? Do we try and trade or acquire the best "clutch hitters" in MLB?

I remember when we acquired Jack Clark to solve all our problems.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What's the solution? Do we try and trade or acquire the best "clutch hitters" in MLB?

I remember when we acquired Jack Clark to solve all our problems.

Clark -6.02 Clutch for his career per FanGraphs

Also, he was a mid-30's guy by the time he got here. His first season was good. His second season was at least better than Masa is hitting this season. 

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Clark -6.02 Clutch for his career per FanGraphs

Also, he was a mid-30's guy by the time he got here. His first season was good. His second season was at least better than Masa is hitting this season. 

Was fangraphs even around, back then?

I just remember people say he as an RBI machine, when we got him.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Was fangraphs even around, back then?

I just remember people say he as an RBI machine, when we got him.

He had 62 RBI the year before. He only had 100+ RBI twice in his career. In the 1980's, he had almost 250 less RBI than Eddie Murray and 150 less than Dewey. His real skill was getting on base (389 OBP matched Tony Gwynn) and poking 25 HR's out every year. I don't think he even had one year where he was a top 10 RBI guy. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He had 62 RBI the year before. He only had 100+ RBI twice in his career. In the 1980's, he had almost 250 less RBI than Eddie Murray and 150 less than Dewey. His real skill was getting on base (389 OBP matched Tony Gwynn) and poking 25 HR's out every year. I don't think he even had one year where he was a top 10 RBI guy. 

He averaged 108 RBI per 162 games in his previous 5 seasons before BOS.

He walked so much that his ABs we always so much lower than his PAs. That 108 RBI per 162 games average being over 590 ABs.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He averaged 108 RBI per 162 games in his previous 5 seasons before BOS.

Per 162 is meaningless. He played over 150 games 3 times in a 18 year career. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

What's the solution? Do we try and trade or acquire the best "clutch hitters" in MLB?

I didn't use the C word. But here's a hint to one solution:

BA w Men On Base: Raleigh .254, Suarez .252, Schwarber .250, Ward .250, Caminero .242.

I'm not suggesting acquiring any of these guys specifically. But what do they all have in common besides the stat that they make outs every 3-out-of-4 ABs with men on base -- which is basically worse than every one of our regulars in the current batting order?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Per 162 is meaningless. He played over 150 games 3 times in a 18 year career. 

Meaningless to you is fine. 108 RBI per 162, when you walk as much as he does is pretty good, to me.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Meaningless to you is fine. 108 RBI per 162, when you walk as much as he does is pretty good, to me.

I'm just saying, you're original point was that he was ostensibly brought in back in the early 90's as an RBI guy. However, he never was a top RBI guy at that point. Nobody was talking about per 162 or really even looking at his walk rate. Lou probably saw his 25 HRs and liked the RHB for the Monster. Sox had moved on from Evans at DH and needed a replacement. After Clark's two years, they went and signed an aging Andre Dawson. At that point, the Sox just wanted RHBs for DH. 

Baylor to Rice to Evans to Clark to Dawson

Lou just liked older RHB for DH it seems. When they signed a 30 year old Jose Canseco, it was while Duquette was GM. 

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

What's the solution? Do we try and trade or acquire the best "clutch hitters" in MLB?

I remember when we acquired Jack Clark to solve all our problems.

I think the Sox go with who they have now, especially with Abreu and Ref due back this week.  

Here are Sox OPS's with RISP (and I was wrong about Duran)--

Anthony 1.039

Abreu  .944

Bregman .886

Gonzalez  .869

Story .828

Duran .826

Lowe .778

Hamilton .776

Narvaez .738

Rafaela .659

Refsnyder  .596

Yoshida .367

Wong .227

Team .754. 

Sox OPS for all splits is .750.  

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

3 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I think the Sox go with who they have now, especially with Abreu and Ref due back this week.  

Here are Sox OPS's with RISP (and I was wrong about Duran)--

Anthony 1.039

Abreu  .944

Bregman .886

Gonzalez  .869

Story .828

Duran .826

Lowe .778

Hamilton .776

Narvaez .738

Rafaela .659

Refsnyder  .596

Yoshida .367

Wong .227

Team .754. 

Sox OPS for all splits is .750.  

 

 

The one caveat to the above is that Duran's OPS vs lefties is .57`1.  

[mvp 78]

League Average Baserunners Scored % while batter is up 14%

Current Red Sox players below 14%:

Rafaela

Narvaez

Hamilton

Wong

Garcia - no runners have been on for any PA

[Maxbialystock]

Scoring is a big deal this season.   Here are the top 10 teams in runs scored along with their wins--

Dodgers 74 wins

Brewers  81

Yankees  70

Red Sox 71

Cubs  76 

Diamondbacks 64

Tigers 78

Jays 76

Mariners 70

That's 9 out of 10 are wild cards or better.  The biggest outlier are the Padres with 74 wins and ranked 22d in runs scored.  

[Maxbialystock]

Just now, Maxbialystock said:

Scoring is a big deal this season.   Here are the top 10 teams in runs scored along with their wins--

Dodgers 74 wins

Brewers  81

Yankees  70

Red Sox 71

Cubs  76 

Diamondbacks 64

Tigers 78

Jays 76

Mariners 70

That's 9 out of 10 are wild cards or better.  The biggest outlier are the Padres with 74 wins and ranked 22d in runs scored.  

Now here are the win totals with the 10 best ERA's in MLB--

Rangers 66

Padres 74

Brewers 81

Royals 67

Sox 71

Giants 63

Phillies 76

Cubs 76

Reds 68

Tigers 78  

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm just saying, you're original point was that he was ostensibly brought in back in the early 90's as an RBI guy. However, he never was a top RBI guy at that point. Nobody was talking about per 162 or really even looking at his walk rate. Lou probably saw his 25 HRs and liked the RHB for the Monster. Sox had moved on from Evans at DH and needed a replacement. After Clark's two years, they went and signed an aging Andre Dawson. At that point, the Sox just wanted RHBs for DH. 

Baylor to Rice to Evans to Clark to Dawson

Lou just liked older RHB for DH it seems. When they signed a 30 year old Jose Canseco, it was while Duquette was GM. 

I remember people saying we added an RBI guy. Maybe they were wrong. I was right about hearing it, whether you believe me or not.

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I think the Sox go with who they have now, especially with Abreu and Ref due back this week.  

 

We have no other choices, except brining up someone from our farm.

My question was more generic and rhetorical and about how we can do better.

I do not believe you clutch is a skillset, so trying to add a clutch batter is pointless.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I remember people saying we added an RBI guy. Maybe they were wrong. I was right about hearing it, whether you believe me or not.

You may have heard it. I just don't believe the Sox brought him in to be an RBI guy. I think they saw him as a professional RHB that would hit with power. From the back of his '87 Fleer card:

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You may have heard it. I just don't believe the Sox brought him in to be an RBI guy. I think they saw him as a professional RHB that would hit with power. From the back of his '87 Fleer card:

Okay. All I said was I heard it.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm befuddled as to how there's much difference between an "RBI guy" and a "power bat".  I would suggest that "RBI guy" is kind of a problematic term.  I thought Talksox intelligentsia has established that RBI is a team stat...

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm befuddled as to how there's much difference between an "RBI guy" and a "power bat".  I would suggest that "RBI guy" is kind of a problematic term.

It is now, but wasn't back then. I don't think we could use problematic 1991 terms on here. 

[mvp 78]

And if you doubt the 1987 Fleer scouting report for Red Sox DH's, here's Andre Dawson's which looks very similar to Clarks:

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It is now, but wasn't back then. I don't think we could use problematic 1991 terms on here. 

Is it accurate to say he was brought in to be a cleanup hitter?  Because that's where they slotted him, except when he was sucking and they moved him south.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Is it accurate to say he was brought in to be a cleanup hitter?  Because that's where they slotted him, except when he was sucking and they moved him south.

In 91, he had a 947 OPS (146 wRC+) when they pushed him down to 6/7th for about two weeks. He had a very bad May, but was fine otherwise.

In 92, he never really got going, but was seen as a lower order bat with Burks the Opening Day cleanup hitter and Brunansky leading the team with 95 starts at cleanup. 

[mvp 78]

I figured out why he stunk with the Red Sox. He started holding the bat the wrong way while with the Sox. What an idiot!

[mvp 78]

Clark's real sin is just looking like my dentist cosplaying as a Red Sox player in every picture I find.