A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

Updated Sox OPS (130+ PAs)

.912 Romy

.901 Bregman

.839 Refsnyder

.815 Anthony

.808 Abreu

.790 Duran

.748 Rafaela

.733 Story

.728 Narvaez

.700 Toto

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Updated Sox OPS (

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Updated Sox OPS (130+ PAs)

.912 Romy

.901 Bregman

.839 Refsnyder

.815 Anthony

.808 Abreu

.790 Duran

.748 Rafaela

.733 Story

.728 Narvaez

.700 Toto

.700 OPS is damned good for a small dog that lives in Kansas.

[notin]

40 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

.700 OPS is damned good for a small dog that lives in Kansas.

And it’s acceptable for a one hit wonder band.  But how good is it for a switch-hitting lawnmower?

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

And it’s acceptable for a one hit wonder band.  But how good is it for a switch-hitting lawnmower?

Toto wasn't really a one-hit wonder.  Hold the Line, Rosanna, Africa.

[Duran Is The Man]

44 minutes ago, notin said:

And it’s acceptable for a one hit wonder band.  But how good is it for a switch-hitting lawnmower?

i think your lawnmower may be running out of gas. over the last 20 games, he's hitting .159 with an OBP of .225 and an OPS of .463

[Maxbialystock]

Just an amazing page not about The Realistic View of the 2025 Sox.  To read it, one would think the Sox are buried at the bottom of the AL East.  Or they're in a losing streak. And for sure Cora and Breslow are clueless about how to manage and assemble a competitive team. 

I have difficulty assessing this Sox team because they have surprised the heck out of me.  Given the injuries, the Sox rotation should be dead, dead, dead, but in fact they have 3 good starters and last night Buehler did an excellent job of pretending to be a 4th starter and he did it at San Diego against their ace Pivetta.  10-2, Sox.   Amazing.  

I honestly don't think the Sox lineup has any stud hitters, but do think it's deeper than any of us expected.  And of course I include the two great sinners, Story and Rafaela, who swing at bad pitches.  Oh, the horror!  And let's not forget the criminal offense of having 4 freaking outfielders. Despite the ineptitude of both Breslow and Cora, the Sox are ranked 4th in MLB in runs scored.  

Or how about this, sports fans?  Our super duper catcher Narvaez has a bad knee, so Cora is using that low down, no good Wong more.   He caught May's horrible debut on May 3, but also caught Buehler last night (6 IP, 0 ER),  and winners Giolito and Bello on Mon and Tues.  

I personally have pronounced Yoshida to be one of "les incompetents" and am delighted that last night I was the incompetent one. 

Campbell bombed at 2b.  Casas played three nanoseconds at 1b before going down yet again.  Disaster?  Nope.  Gonzalez and Toro are both way better at 2b and 1b than Campbell, Casas, whoever.  Heck, we don't even miss Mayer.  Indeed, Breslow and Cora decided to bring back defensive specialist and excellent baserunner Hamilton to back up Gonzalez at 2b and Story at SS--even though he stinks at bat this year.  

Anyone who hasn't climbed on this year's bandwagon--and we still have a few--is too hung up on the past 3 seasons.  

 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

.700 OPS is damned good for a small dog that lives in Kansas.

It's like 5 something before and after his 16 days in Oz.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

And it’s acceptable for a one hit wonder band.  But how good is it for a switch-hitting lawnmower?

Not really acceptable, to me. He sucked before and after his 16 game stretch, early in the season. He sucked for years before we signed him.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i think your lawnmower may be running out of gas. over the last 20 games, he's hitting .159 with an OBP of .225 and an OPS of .463

It's worse than that:

.638 career before signing.

.538 first 8 games in '25

(16 games stretch at over 1.100)

We are looking at a 45 game current stretch at .577. That's nearing twice the sample size we gave Garret Cooper in '24 (.455) and over double the sample size we gave Dalbec in 2022 at .570.

I'm just not seeing the value. If the guy had a decent career, before hand, maybe take a chance he can regain, but he didn't and this is what he is: .538ish to .638ish.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

Just an amazing page not about The Realistic View of the 2025 Sox.  To read it, one would think the Sox are buried at the bottom of the AL East.  Or they're in a losing streak. And for sure Cora and Breslow are clueless about how to manage and assemble a competitive team. 

I have difficulty assessing this Sox team because they have surprised the heck out of me.  Given the injuries, the Sox rotation should be dead, dead, dead, but in fact they have 3 good starters and last night Buehler did an excellent job of pretending to be a 4th starter and he did it at San Diego against their ace Pivetta.  10-2, Sox.   Amazing.  

I honestly don't think the Sox lineup has any stud hitters, but do think it's deeper than any of us expected.  And of course I include the two great sinners, Story and Rafaela, who swing at bad pitches.  Oh, the horror!  And let's not forget the criminal offense of having 4 freaking outfielders. Despite the ineptitude of both Breslow and Cora, the Sox are ranked 4th in MLB in runs scored.  

Or how about this, sports fans?  Our super duper catcher Narvaez has a bad knee, so Cora is using that low down, no good Wong more.   He caught May's horrible debut on May 3, but also caught Buehler last night (6 IP, 0 ER),  and winners Giolito and Bello on Mon and Tues.  

I personally have pronounced Yoshida to be one of "les incompetents" and am delighted that last night I was the incompetent one. 

Campbell bombed at 2b.  Casas played three nanoseconds at 1b before going down yet again.  Disaster?  Nope.  Gonzalez and Toro are both way better at 2b and 1b than Campbell, Casas, whoever.  Heck, we don't even miss Mayer.  Indeed, Breslow and Cora decided to bring back defensive specialist and excellent baserunner Hamilton to back up Gonzalez at 2b and Story at SS--even though he stinks at bat this year.  

Anyone who hasn't climbed on this year's bandwagon--and we still have a few--is too hung up on the past 3 seasons.  

 

Teams can win with a "disaster" at one or two positions. Winning does not make Toro good or even okay. He sucks. 1B remains a disaster for yet another season. It has nothing to do with us winning.

Posters can love the team, be optimistic about the team's chances and still see a major hole on the roster.

Our hole is 1B. Maybe Campbell will plug it, someday, but as long as Cora & Brez think like you do, that Toro is okay enough, we will continue to suck at 1B.

I'm wondering why Fred has not spoken out on Toro. Do I have to be the only one doing it? (LOL, I jest, of course.)

[moonslav59]

We are not in Kansas, anymore.

[moonslav59]

27-31 in first 58 games

38-21 in last 59 games

The second sample size is larger. Hopefully, it is a more accurate portrayal of who this team really is.

Since May 30, the cut off date chose for the above example:

42-16 MIL

40-21 TOR

38-21 BOS

Since June 7th:

37-14 MIL

35-17 BOS

34-20 TOR

Since June 10th, we are 2 games up on TOR. Let's hope we pass them up in '26~

Notes:

We just passed SDP for the 8th best record in MLB.

We are 1/2 GB Houston for the 7th best record in MLB, and we play them next!

We are 2 GM DET, PHI & CHC for the 4th best record.

We are 2.5 GB LAD and 3 GB TOR!

[Larry Cook]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox are 65-52.

In 2021, we were 66-51, then won 3 in a row, before getting swept by the Yanks to go to 69-54.

This team is so much more fun to watch though!!!! 

[moonslav59]

Our defense has hurt the team pitching numbers, this year.  We've allowed a staggering 66 unearned runs, and we've all watched enough games to know many more earned runs were allowed due to defensive mistakes not counted as errors.

Our team pitching ranks

T2nd in ERA- at 87 (Only TEX is better)

What is more shocking is how the pen has led the way, but let's not shortchange our top 3 SP'ers, this year.

ERA-

2nd RP at 80

9th SP at 92

SP'ers with 90+ IP

3. Crochet at 53 (Nate and Skenes 1-2)

21. Bello at 71 (just below Framber and above Pivetta)

38. Giolito at 80 (just below Castillo & Lugo and above Keller)

(Next year's new SP'er, Joe Ryan is 14th at 66.)

 

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

This team is so much more fun to watch though!!!! 

Seems that way, but that may just be the recency effect.

I loved watching Kike in CF.

Watching Renfroe hit 31 bombs and throw many runners out at 3B and home.

JD's last big season (73 XBHs)

Dalbec have a great second half of the season to end up over .790.

Schwarber's addition and subsequent performance (.957.)

Nate lead the league in GS and have a 3.75 ERA. 

Barnes first half of the season.

Whitlock have one of the best RP'er seasons in my lifetime.

0.92 Papelbon in 68 IP '06

1.09 Uehara in 74 IP '13

1.43 Kimbrel in 69 IP '17

1.47 Stanley in 67 IP in '80

1.85 Papelbon in '09

1.88 Workman in '19

1.93 D Bard in '10

1.96 Whitlock in 73 IP in 2021 (3rd best among Sox RP'ers w 73+ IP since 1971.)

I do love watching just about every player on this team, mostly Rafaela, Duran, Bregman, Abreu, Narvaez, Romy & Ref, Anthony, Chapman, Crochet and several others.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

 

 

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

 

Your best post of the month!

LOL!

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Your best post of the month!

LOL!

if only Fred made posts like this.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Duran Is The Man said:

if only Fred made posts like this.

Post of the Month!

[moonslav59]

Notice how the trolls have all but disappeared? (I don't see Fred as a troll: he's just Mr. Negativity.)

We will probably hit a patch where we lose 3-4 in a row or 5 of 6 or 7, and they will return, but this is expected.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Your best post of the month!

LOL!

Thanks,  I did put a lot of time and effort into it.

[moonslav59]

Just now, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Thanks  I put a lot of effort into it.

Maybe that's they key. Stop trying so hard!

LOL

[dgalehouse]

One of the things that was said about the 2018 Red Sox was that they thought they were going to win every game. I think this year's team is developing that same attitude. Obviously, you have to have talent, but that positive mental attitude and confidence is very important to continued success.

[moonslav59]

Teams like the Astros have had a lot of major injuries and overcame them, but here is the current list of Sox players on the 60 Day IL:

Houck (out for 2026, too)

Sadnoval

Crawford

Dobbins

Slaten (should return in '25)

Casas

Winckowski, Hendriks and Guerrero (Luis may return)

10 Day IL: Mayer (September return?)

Several other players missed time with injuries, like Bregman, Giolito & Bello.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

 

Btw, great posts like this wouldn't be possible without the help of the excellent programmer who put this forum together.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

One of the things that was said about the 2018 Red Sox was that they thought they were going to win every game. I think this year's team is developing that same attitude. Obviously, you have to have talent, but that positive mental attitude and confidence is very important to continued success.

I agree. I don't think they felt this way in April and May, but by mid June, they hit their stride and they look confident, focused and content.

Was it luck or coincidence it happened around the big June 15th trade?

[moonslav59]

We are 33-17 since June 10th (2 months.)

Pitching in these 50 games:

7-1 Giolito 2.43 (IP leader at 67)

6-4 Bello 2.26 (2nd in IP at 64)

7-0 Crochet 2.09 (60 IP)

3-2 Buehler 5.61 (51)

Pen

2.08 Whitlock 22 IP

3.10 Murphy 20

0.49 Chapman 18

2.65 Bernardino 17 (demoted)

3.46 Wilson 13

[moonslav59]

Top Sox OPS over the last 50 games (2 months)

.961 Romy (BAM!)

.874 Duran (Who is the clown wanting to trade him!)

.867 Bregman (glad you're back)

.863 Story (Finally!)

.828 Abreu (Steady Wilyer)

.826 Anthony (for real)

.811 Rafaela (growing sample size of competence- take not, Fred!)

.771 Ref (if this is your slump, come back, next year!)

.707 Yoshida (leash loosened, recently)

.653 Mayer (IL)

.611 Narvaez (injured)

.557 Toro (5th most PAs is killing us)

.453 Wong (doing better on D)

.449 DHam (looks like a great PR)

[moonslav59]

We gotta say good bye to Toro. Period.