Article: Boston Red Sox 2025 Position Analysis: Center Field

[Alex Mayes]

Center should be locked up for years to come, but in the event of injuries, the depth gets surprisingly thin quickly. 

Alex Cora told the media early in the offseason that Ceddanne Rafaela would see most of his time at center field. That is a very good thing. It locks up a key position and hopefully brings another Gold Glove to the Boston outfield in 2025. Making sure Rafaela plays his main position will be a major key to success this season for the Red Sox. 

Red Sox CF at a Glance

Starter: Ceddanne Rafaela
Backup: Jarren Duran
Depth: Wilyer Abreu, Rob Refsnyder, Trayce Thompson (NRI)
Prospects: Roman Anthony, Jhostynxon Garcia, Allan Castro, Miguel Bleis
Red Sox CF fWAR Ranking Last Year: 13 out of 30

The Good

Center field defense should be a bright spot for the Red Sox this season. Ceddanne Rafaela has proven to play Gold Glove, possibly even Platinum Glove-caliber defense when he’s roaming center, and all indications are that he will continue to do so in 2025. The biggest difference seems to be coming on the offensive side of the baseball for Rafaela. He looks far more patient and has unlocked a bit more power while hitting to all parts of the field. If Rafaela were to go down with injury, Jarren Duran is a more-than-capable center fielder in his own right. Both players are speed demons and have flashed the ability to make highlight-reel plays on a regular basis.

The Bad

The depth behind Duran is lacking. Roman Anthony has played center coming up through the system, but he profiles as a corner outfielder in Boston instead of a true center fielder. He could play the position in a pinch, and the same can be said for Rob Refsnyder and Wilyer Abreu, but you don’t want to count on the three of them manning the position for any significant amount of time. Trayce Thompson isn’t guaranteed to break camp with the big club, and while he would make a fine bench piece in Boston, keeping him on the roster over more infield depth pieces would involve some tough conversations. Garcia and Bleis, are at least a season away from being considered for promotion to Boston.

The Bottom Line

Between Rafaela and Duran, center field defense in Boston should be locked down for quite a while. There’s depth in the system but outside of Anthony, it is at least a year away from being considered major-league ready. If Rafaela struggles and Anthony proves himself ready for a promotion, center field could look very different at the end of the season. Right now, the Red Sox are hoping that their trio of outfielders are all in contention for Gold Gloves — incredibly, not an outlandish notion — and that would mean that those of us who long for the days of The Killer Bs in the outfield can finally start to feel confident that the outfield in Boston is set for the foreseeable future.

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[mvp 78]

The depth is thin, but when your backup is Duran and you have Anthony behind him, it's better than 90%^ of other MLB teams IMO. 

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The depth is thin, but when your backup is Duran and you have Anthony behind him, it's better than 90%^ of other MLB teams IMO. 

I agree. Moving Duran to CF is barely a drop off on D, and a big plus on O over Rafaela. In his case, the depth is better than the starter. Since have a few LF'ers, it's not a drop off to have Ref in LF vs LHPs and Duran in CF: it's actually better. Vs, RHPs, it gets more complex. Yoshida in LF and Duran in CF is scary to many of us.

I see our OF as pretty interchangeable and flexible. I think there is depth everywhere, except RF, until Anthony is added, but if Cora chooses to play Rafaela in RF, maybe we're okay, there too.

LF: Duran, Ref, Yoshida, Abreu (Anthony, Campbell)

CF: Rafaela, Duran (Anthony, Campbell)

RF: Abreu, Rafaela (Anthony)

Looks safe, unless we have two injuries.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Duran is the star coming off last year, and Anthony looks like the star of the very near future.

So one of the more intriguing stories this season is which outfielder will be replaced in the starting line-up: Rafaela or Abreu? The Red Sox like both guys for their gloves and bats, but Ceddanne is the one they signed longterm so far.

My opinion is that posters here in '24 tended to slightly overrate Abreu and underrate Rafaela. Wilyer had a slight edge in WAR and won a Gold Glove, but it's arguable that because Ceddanne also played a lot of shortstop that he was more valuable AND had less WAR due to some Es filling in at SS. No one will dispute that Rafaela could also win a Gold Glove if he plays a full season in CF.

At the plate, both had some pop, but Rafaela got on fans' nerves because the count was always 0-and-2 in almost every at bat. So, how many realize Abreu still had a higher K-rate? Rafaela stole more bases, but got thrown out more times, too.

Some see a platoon as a solution, but if another contender suffers an outfield injury and comes dangling a promising young arm, which guy is gone? I give the edge to Abreu, only because he's still gets paid minimum wage.

 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Duran is the star coming off last year, and Anthony looks like the star of the very near future.

So one of the more intriguing stories this season is which outfielder will be replaced in the starting line-up: Rafaela or Abreu? The Red Sox like both guys for their gloves and bats, but Ceddanne is the one they signed longterm so far.

My opinion is that posters here in '24 tended to slightly overrate Abreu and underrate Rafaela. Wilyer had a slight edge in WAR and won a Gold Glove, but it's arguable that because Ceddanne also played a lot of shortstop that he was more valuable AND had less WAR due to some Es filling in at SS. No one will dispute that Rafaela could also win a Gold Glove if he plays a full season in CF.

At the plate, both had some pop, but Rafaela got on fans' nerves because the count was always 0-and-2 in almost every at bat. So, how many realize Abreu still had a higher K-rate? Rafaela stole more bases, but got thrown out more times, too.

Some see a platoon as a solution, but if another contender suffers an outfield injury and comes dangling a promising young arm, which guy is gone? I give the edge to Abreu, only because he's still gets paid minimum wage.

 

Abreu's OPS was about 120 points higher than Rafaela's. For me to consider Rafaela to be a better OFer than Abreu, he needs to get his OPS closer to 750 than 650. If his hitting 725 with GG defense and Abreu is playing like '24, it's a better conversation. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Duran is the star coming off last year, and Anthony looks like the star of the very near future.

So one of the more intriguing stories this season is which outfielder will be replaced in the starting line-up: Rafaela or Abreu? The Red Sox like both guys for their gloves and bats, but Ceddanne is the one they signed longterm so far.

My opinion is that posters here in '24 tended to slightly overrate Abreu and underrate Rafaela. Wilyer had a slight edge in WAR and won a Gold Glove, but it's arguable that because Ceddanne also played a lot of shortstop that he was more valuable AND had less WAR due to some Es filling in at SS. No one will dispute that Rafaela could also win a Gold Glove if he plays a full season in CF.

At the plate, both had some pop, but Rafaela got on fans' nerves because the count was always 0-and-2 in almost every at bat. So, how many realize Abreu still had a higher K-rate? Rafaela stole more bases, but got thrown out more times, too.

Some see a platoon as a solution, but if another contender suffers an outfield injury and comes dangling a promising young arm, which guy is gone? I give the edge to Abreu, only because he's still gets paid minimum wage.

 

I gotta think Abreu has earned a role as a starting corner OF'er, and since Duran can't play RF, he's the guy in RF vs RHPs, if and until Anthony wrestles it away from him (or Rafaela.)

If Anthony gets the call, it will be to play FT, so all I see is an Abreu-Rafaela platoon, unless we trade someone. All 4 are under team control for a couple more years or more.

[Bellhorn04]

FWIW Little Raf has posted good numbers at the plate in these spring games.  Especially of interest is the 3Ks vs. 4 walks...make that 5 walks now.   

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

FWIW Little Raf has posted good numbers at the plate in these spring games.  Especially of interest is the 3Ks vs. 4 walks...make that 5 walks now.   

If it has earned him a starting spot in the OF, great. I need to see an offensive bump in the regular season before I become a believer.