Article: Nolan Arenado Makes Sense for the Red Sox (If They Make the Right Trade)

[Alex Mayes]

With the St. Louis Cardinals looking to unload Nolan Arenado, the Red Sox should answer their call.

According to Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of Masslive.com, the Boston Red Sox are a ‘preferred destination’ for third baseman Nolan Arenado. The Red Sox and Arenado have been linked since the start of the offseason, when the Cardinals decided to make him available for trade as they began an organizational overhaul. But does Nolan Arenado actually make sense for the Red Sox?

In 2024 Arenado slashed .272/.322/.394, which is a respectable slash line for anyone, but with a 102 wRC+, it makes him almost exactly a league-average hitter. In his age-33 season, he put up the lowest slugging percentage, lowest hard-hit rate, and lowest average exit velocity of his entire career. That said, the decline might not be as big an issue as it seems at first blush. When we overlay his 2024 spray chart on Fenway Park, a new story emerges.

All of a sudden, those long outs turn into home runs and doubles off the Green Monster. All of a sudden, instead of talking about an aging hitter with limited power, we’re talking about someone with a swing tailor-made for Fenway Park. We're talking about a player who can revitalize his career playing next to former teammate Trevor Story, because you wouldn’t trade for a 10-time Gold Glover only to shift him into a position he’s never professionally played, right?

Right?

However, the Red Sox wouldn’t necessarily be bringing Arenado in for his bat. They'd bring him in to bolster the infield defense, and that would mean moving Rafael Devers off third base. In order for an Arenado trade to make any kind of sense, one player in particular would have to be headed back to St. Louis: Masataka Yoshida. Moving Yoshida would allow Devers to slide over to DH and focus on what he does well: mashing. The price would be steep. To get it done, the Red Sox would have to be fine with alienating the face of the franchise with nine years left on his contract, and they'd have to be fine with overpaying Arenado for three decline years. Beacuse the Cardinals are looking to shed salary and pick up prospects, the Red Sox would likely have to pay part of Yoshida's contract down, which means they'd essentially be paying Arenado even more than the $74 million currently left on his contract. However, I would argue that the price is worth paying for massive upgrades at DH and on defense at third base. It might even be worth attaching someone like Wilyer Abreu or Ceddanne Rafaela to Yoshida, especially with Roman Anthony likely awaiting an early season call-up, if he doesn’t make a case to be on the big league roster in spring training.

Trading for three years of Arenado makes far more sense than signing free agent Alex Bregman to a seven-year deal, but it has to be the right deal to bring him to Boston. The wrong deal could make the team worse, and it could create yet another gaping hole elsewhere on the diamond.

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[moonslav59]

I we can include Yoshida in the deal, even if we pay 50-75% of his remaining contract, I'd do everything I can to make a deal happen.

I do NOT make this deal, unless Arenado plays FT 3B.

I'm not sure STL wants Yoshida, since the reason they are trading Arenado is to dump salary not exchange ones. However, there was talk they'd consider paying part of his deal, so taking on part of Yoshida's deal might be possible. How much they take on is likely tied to who we give back.

While Rafaela's $48M/7 remaining contract is not much, the Sox might like to shed the $6.25M tax line hit by including him in the deal. Is that enough?

Rafaela and Yoshida (plus $10M a year off his $18M deal) for Arenado.

Word is the actual cost of Arenado, after the COL payments and deferments, is about $60M/3. 

Right now, we owe $54M/3 on Yoshida, so this deal would cost us about $90M/3 for Arenado minus the cost of Rafaela's $48M/7.

[harmony]

St. Louis fans react to the prospect of a Nolan Arenado trade to Boston:

https://interact.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=12918692#p12918692

[notin]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

St. Louis fans react to the prospect of a Nolan Arenado trade to Boston:

https://interact.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=12918692#p12918692

I only saw one objection to taking back Yoshida, made by some random individual who goes by harmony55.

If Boston sent Yoshida, Abreu, and some cash, I’m not so sure St. Louis, whose RF tandem of Alex Burleson and Jordan Walker ranked among MLB’s worst defensive combinations at that position, I’m not as convinced St. Louis balks.  They save nearly $20mill in the difference in the contracts, plus anything Boston includes, and they save whatever it would take to upgrade RF to a respectable defensive position.  This deal would also likely break BTV in their favor.

Sure they could hold out in favor of a deal in which a team sends back an even lesser contract, but if no such deal emerges and Boston moves on, St. Louis will be stuck paying the entirety of a deal on a player they openly tried to dump.  Houston moved on quickly.  Boston might as well.

[mvp 78]

Is he playing 162 games at Fenway now? If you we want to see Busch vs Fenway, you'd just have to overlay a Home spray chart rather than a full 162. His drop in SLG and bat speed year over year is a problem as he can no longer hit any fastball. When an offensive player reaches that stage in his career, it's virtually over. If the Cards aren't going to eat any money, it's just not worth it at 25.5M against the CBT. He's maybe a 2 fWAR guy so the Cards would have to eat about 30M for it to be worthwhile IMO. 

I'd rather they not acquire either guy, but if I'm picking my poison it's not Arenado. Bregman is going to cost a lot more money, but is a much better player and has positional versatility. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Is he playing 162 games at Fenway now? If you we want to see Busch vs Fenway, you'd just have to overlay a Home spray chart rather than a full 162. His drop in SLG and bat speed year over year is a problem as he can no longer hit any fastball. When an offensive player reaches that stage in his career, it's virtually over. If the Cards aren't going to eat any money, it's just not worth it at 25.5M against the CBT. He's maybe a 2 fWAR guy so the Cards would have to eat about 30M for it to be worthwhile IMO. 

I'd rather they not acquire either guy, but if I'm picking my poison it's not Arenado. Bregman is going to cost a lot more money, but is a much better player and has positional versatility. 

You've scared the living bejesus out of me on Arenado!

On Bregman, he just does not seem like "that guy" we could say, this is the guy we really want and need and let's get him, even if we grossly over pay.

He and Scott might be the best two guys left on the FA market, in terms of helping us the most in 2025, but that should not be the reason we sign Bregman.

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You've scared the living bejesus out of me on Arenado!

On Bregman, he just does not seem like "that guy" we could say, this is the guy we really want and need and let's get him, even if we grossly over pay.

He and Scott might be the best two guys left on the FA market, in terms of helping us the most in 2025, but that should not be the reason we sign Bregman.

If they can get Bregman on a 3 year deal, I'm all for it. I'm worried about years 4 and beyond with him.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, notin said:

I only saw one objection to taking back Yoshida, made by some random individual who goes by harmony55.

If Boston sent Yoshida, Abreu, and some cash, I’m not so sure St. Louis, whose RF tandem of Alex Burleson and Jordan Walker ranked among MLB’s worst defensive combinations at that position, I’m not as convinced St. Louis balks.  They save nearly $20mill in the difference in the contracts, plus anything Boston includes, and they save whatever it would take to upgrade RF to a respectable defensive position.  This deal would also likely break BTV in their favor.

Sure they could hold out in favor of a deal in which a team sends back an even lesser contract, but if no such deal emerges and Boston moves on, St. Louis will be stuck paying the entirety of a deal on a player they openly tried to dump.  Houston moved on quickly.  Boston might as well.

Jordan Walker is their Roman Anthony.  Unless they are moving him back to 3b or lf, I dont see them moving off of him. Hes not going to DH or AAA or any kind of platoon role. 

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Is he playing 162 games at Fenway now? If you we want to see Busch vs Fenway, you'd just have to overlay a Home spray chart rather than a full 162. His drop in SLG and bat speed year over year is a problem as he can no longer hit any fastball. When an offensive player reaches that stage in his career, it's virtually over. If the Cards aren't going to eat any money, it's just not worth it at 25.5M against the CBT. He's maybe a 2 fWAR guy so the Cards would have to eat about 30M for it to be worthwhile IMO. 

I'd rather they not acquire either guy, but if I'm picking my poison it's not Arenado. Bregman is going to cost a lot more money, but is a much better player and has positional versatility. 

1000% , they are not in the same universe.  I didnt start off this offseason saying "I hope they get Bregman", but options are dwindling and he prob does make us better.  Arrenado is washed.

[drewski6]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they can get Bregman on a 3 year deal, I'm all for it. I'm worried about years 4 and beyond with him.

The cost of doing business in the free agent market is overpaid years at the back end. Not to imply the expected negative value from the back 9 of the contract should be disregarded, just that if you arent willing to overpay , you are playing with scared money.

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they can get Bregman on a 3 year deal, I'm all for it. I'm worried about years 4 and beyond with him.

I can't see him taking only 3 or 4 years. I guess it depends on what TOR or DET is offering.

I've been hot and cold on Bregman, mostly because he's the last shiny object left, and my pet peeve is defense. He is not the "guy" to choose as the biggest FA signing since Price.

I was not upset with the Story signing, at the time, but I had the same feeling about him. Why pick him as the biggest signing in 5 years?

[drewski6]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I can't see him taking only 3 or 4 years. I guess it depends on what TOR or DET is offering.

I've been hot and cold on Bregman, mostly because he's the last shiny object left, and my pet peeve is defense. He is not the "guy" to choose as the biggest FA signing since Price.

I was not upset with the Story signing, at the time, but I had the same feeling about him. Why pick him as the biggest signing in 5 years?

To not punt on the year.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The cost of doing business in the free agent market is overpaid years at the back end. Not to imply the expected negative value from the back 9 of the contract should be disregarded, just that if you arent willing to overpay , you are playing with scared money.

This is exactly how I see it, but it is essential to put a lot of effort into identifying exactly the player you want and then "do what it takes," unless it goes beyond absurd. I just can't see, in any way, shape or form, why Bregman would fit that model.

He'd be a reactionary signing done to placate angry fans or to give the season ticket holders and media something to get jacked up over and maybe forget all the shenanigans this FO has put us through for year.

While I do think Bregman would help the team in numerous ways, he's not the guy I'd give 6-7 years to.

To me, that leaves Scott as the only remaining major impact signing left on the boards that fits a clear need for the Sox.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

To not punt on the year.

Exactly, but that is reactionary decision making, not proactive and well-thought out planning.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The cost of doing business in the free agent market is overpaid years at the back end. Not to imply the expected negative value from the back 9 of the contract should be disregarded, just that if you arent willing to overpay , you are playing with scared money.

I just wonder what the market is for Bregman as several teams have found their replacement at 3B already and have moved on from Bregman. HOU and NYY are probably out. DET signed Torres. Aside from the Sox, the only current suitors are Jays and Mets apparently. Mets probably prefer to bring Alonso back and the Jays are an imperfect fit. Sox may be able to get him at a good price. 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I can't see him taking only 3 or 4 years. I guess it depends on what TOR or DET is offering.

I've been hot and cold on Bregman, mostly because he's the last shiny object left, and my pet peeve is defense. He is not the "guy" to choose as the biggest FA signing since Price.

I was not upset with the Story signing, at the time, but I had the same feeling about him. Why pick him as the biggest signing in 5 years?

I think DET is out after signing Torres. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think DET is out after signing Torres. 

I thought so, too, but I keep reading that "insiders say DET and TOR" are the frontrunners.

If TOR knows they will be losing Vlad, maybe they think this will be a semi-preemptive strike.

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Exactly, but that is reactionary decision making, not proactive and well-thought out planning.

I dont disagree.

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I just wonder what the market is for Bregman as several teams have found their replacement at 3B already and have moved on from Bregman. HOU and NYY are probably out. DET signed Torres. Aside from the Sox, the only current suitors are Jays and Mets apparently. Mets probably prefer to bring Alonso back and the Jays are an imperfect fit. Sox may be able to get him at a good price. 

He may be this year's Boras 4, as in overplayed his hand

[notin]

40 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The cost of doing business in the free agent market is overpaid years at the back end. Not to imply the expected negative value from the back 9 of the contract should be disregarded, just that if you arent willing to overpay , you are playing with scared money.

Really it comes down to do you prefer short term success from Bregman and live with the reduced production on the back nine?  Or go get Arenado and jump right into the reduced production on the back nine?

[notin]

49 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Jordan Walker is their Roman Anthony.  Unless they are moving him back to 3b or lf, I dont see them moving off of him. Hes not going to DH or AAA or any kind of platoon role. 

They’ve demoted him in the past, partly due to poor outfield defense.  If they can swap Arenado for a RF, maybe 3b is back in play?  Did they move him to the OF because of poor hot corner defense, the presence of Arenado, or both?

[notin]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I thought so, too, but I keep reading that "insiders say DET and TOR" are the frontrunners.

If TOR knows they will be losing Vlad, maybe they think this will be a semi-preemptive strike.

Detroit does have Jace Jung for 3b, so I can see them stepping out.  Toronto just can’t seem to get anyone to go there any more.  They’re like the Topeka KS Tourism Bureau…

[Bellhorn04]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Really it comes down to do you prefer short term success from Bregman and live with the reduced production on the back nine?  Or go get Arenado and jump right into the reduced production on the back nine?

Everyone would prefer Bregman as a player.  I think the Sox would only be interested in Arenado if St. Louis is paying a lot of it.  And of course the rumors are that Casas would be going in the deal, which means the Sox would be looking for another significant piece...and Devers would move to !B...

And it's all just rumors.

[drewski6]

39 minutes ago, notin said:

They’ve demoted him in the past, partly due to poor outfield defense.  If they can swap Arenado for a RF, maybe 3b is back in play?  Did they move him to the OF because of poor hot corner defense, the presence of Arenado, or both?

I assume it was both, but Im not sure.  Im just confident they arent going to relegate him to DH and they are going to give him every opportunity to be an everyday player somewhere. I can see a move to LF, 3B, even CF (not as likely)

[moonslav59]

We could just roll the dice on Story, Campbell & Mayer to fill the 2B, SS and 3B slots with DHam, Grissom & Romy as depth (all with options.)

Figure out how to play Devers, Casas and Yoshida at 1B & DH, or trade one.

OF is more than set with Duran, Anthony and an Abreu-Rafaela rotating positions on a platoon.

Maybe Narvaez can be the defensive catcher we need. Hopefully he hits better than Leon.

Of course, I'm oversimplifying things and assuming all 3 top prospects win a FT job and deserve to keep it. That is unlikely. The problem we have, now is, we don't know which one(s) will work out for us.

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, notin said:

Detroit does have Jace Jung for 3b, so I can see them stepping out.  Toronto just can’t seem to get anyone to go there any more.  They’re like the Topeka KS Tourism Bureau…

If TOR is the only team giving 7-8 years, Bregman will likely choose them.

Maybe he takes a front-end loaded contract with an opt out after 1-2 years. Coming to BOS and having a great year could really build up his value.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We could just roll the dice on Story, Campbell & Mayer to fill the 2B, SS and 3B slots with DHam, Grissom & Romy as depth (all with options.)

Figure out how to play Devers, Casas and Yoshida at 1B & DH, or trade one.

OF is more than set with Duran, Anthony and an Abreu-Rafaela rotating positions on a platoon.

Maybe Narvaez can be the defensive catcher we need. Hopefully he hits better than Leon.

Of course, I'm oversimplifying things and assuming all 3 top prospects win a FT job and deserve to keep it. That is unlikely. The problem we have, now is, we don't know which one(s) will work out for us.

Enter the value of Bregmans defensive versatility.

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If TOR is the only team giving 7-8 years, Bregman will likely choose them.

Maybe he takes a front-end loaded contract with an opt out after 1-2 years. Coming to BOS and having a great year could really build up his value.

5 years with an opt-out after 2 sounds like a good compromise for both sides. Only problem is he turned down like 150. Maybe hes been humbled since then or the opt out entices him.

Agreed on Tor. 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Enter the value of Bregmans defensive versatility.

While I agree, in a general sense, that versatility is an asset, our 3B defense is so horrendous, there would probably never be a situation where Bregman would be a better upgrade anywhere but 3B. I realize that if the logjam at 1B & DH by Devers, Casas and Yoshida cannot be solved via trade or deciding to play Yoshida in LF, then the "upgrade" in 3B defense could be at least partially offset by a loss on offense by benching Yoshida, but who would you sit to bat Yoshida?

His bat is better than Rafaela's. His bat vs LHPs is better than Abreus and vs RHPs over Refsnyder, but I'm not seeing a big loss, except financially, which to JH & Co. means everything.

I'm wondering just how desperate STL will get to trade Arenado. Waiting might bring the cost down. If his offense is declined so much that his age means we have to expect it to get even worse. How much is a glove only 3Bman worth?

I'm huge on defense, but even I can't stomach a 3Bman that might hit .700 in '25 and get worse over the next two years, even if the cost is near min wage. I gotta think Campbell or Mayer can play 3B better than Devers and hit .700. Why trad enaything and add any salary for Arenado?

I think I've come full circle on Arenado. MVP led led me to the coming to Jesus moment. Only a Yoshida-Arenado trade makes any sense to me, but it doesn't to STL, so NO GO. (Now, sit back and watch it happen.)

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We could just roll the dice on Story, Campbell & Mayer to fill the 2B, SS and 3B slots with DHam, Grissom & Romy as depth (all with options.)

Figure out how to play Devers, Casas and Yoshida at 1B & DH, or trade one.

OF is more than set with Duran, Anthony and an Abreu-Rafaela rotating positions on a platoon.

Maybe Narvaez can be the defensive catcher we need. Hopefully he hits better than Leon.

Of course, I'm oversimplifying things and assuming all 3 top prospects win a FT job and deserve to keep it. That is unlikely. The problem we have, now is, we don't know which one(s) will work out for us.

Or - crazy thought here - they could start the year with Casas (1b), Grissom (2b), Devers (3b) and Story (SS) with Yoshida at DH…

 

It can happen with minimal transactions!!