Nolan Arenado Makes Sense for the Red Sox (If They Make the Right Trade)

I we can include Yoshida in the deal, even if we pay 50-75% of his remaining contract, I'd do everything I can to make a deal happen.

I do NOT make this deal, unless Arenado plays FT 3B.

I'm not sure STL wants Yoshida, since the reason they are trading Arenado is to dump salary not exchange ones. However, there was talk they'd consider paying part of his deal, so taking on part of Yoshida's deal might be possible. How much they take on is likely tied to who we give back.

While Rafaela's $48M/7 remaining contract is not much, the Sox might like to shed the $6.25M tax line hit by including him in the deal. Is that enough?

Rafaela and Yoshida (plus $10M a year off his $18M deal) for Arenado.

Word is the actual cost of Arenado, after the COL payments and deferments, is about $60M/3. 

Right now, we owe $54M/3 on Yoshida, so this deal would cost us about $90M/3 for Arenado minus the cost of Rafaela's $48M/7.

1 hour ago, harmony said:

St. Louis fans react to the prospect of a Nolan Arenado trade to Boston:

https://interact.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=12918692#p12918692

I only saw one objection to taking back Yoshida, made by some random individual who goes by harmony55.

If Boston sent Yoshida, Abreu, and some cash, I’m not so sure St. Louis, whose RF tandem of Alex Burleson and Jordan Walker ranked among MLB’s worst defensive combinations at that position, I’m not as convinced St. Louis balks.  They save nearly $20mill in the difference in the contracts, plus anything Boston includes, and they save whatever it would take to upgrade RF to a respectable defensive position.  This deal would also likely break BTV in their favor.

Sure they could hold out in favor of a deal in which a team sends back an even lesser contract, but if no such deal emerges and Boston moves on, St. Louis will be stuck paying the entirety of a deal on a player they openly tried to dump.  Houston moved on quickly.  Boston might as well.

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Is he playing 162 games at Fenway now? If you we want to see Busch vs Fenway, you'd just have to overlay a Home spray chart rather than a full 162. His drop in SLG and bat speed year over year is a problem as he can no longer hit any fastball. When an offensive player reaches that stage in his career, it's virtually over. If the Cards aren't going to eat any money, it's just not worth it at 25.5M against the CBT. He's maybe a 2 fWAR guy so the Cards would have to eat about 30M for it to be worthwhile IMO. 

I'd rather they not acquire either guy, but if I'm picking my poison it's not Arenado. Bregman is going to cost a lot more money, but is a much better player and has positional versatility. 

You've scared the living bejesus out of me on Arenado!

On Bregman, he just does not seem like "that guy" we could say, this is the guy we really want and need and let's get him, even if we grossly over pay.

He and Scott might be the best two guys left on the FA market, in terms of helping us the most in 2025, but that should not be the reason we sign Bregman.

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they can get Bregman on a 3 year deal, I'm all for it. I'm worried about years 4 and beyond with him.

I can't see him taking only 3 or 4 years. I guess it depends on what TOR or DET is offering.

I've been hot and cold on Bregman, mostly because he's the last shiny object left, and my pet peeve is defense. He is not the "guy" to choose as the biggest FA signing since Price.

I was not upset with the Story signing, at the time, but I had the same feeling about him. Why pick him as the biggest signing in 5 years?

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The cost of doing business in the free agent market is overpaid years at the back end. Not to imply the expected negative value from the back 9 of the contract should be disregarded, just that if you arent willing to overpay , you are playing with scared money.

This is exactly how I see it, but it is essential to put a lot of effort into identifying exactly the player you want and then "do what it takes," unless it goes beyond absurd. I just can't see, in any way, shape or form, why Bregman would fit that model.

He'd be a reactionary signing done to placate angry fans or to give the season ticket holders and media something to get jacked up over and maybe forget all the shenanigans this FO has put us through for year.

While I do think Bregman would help the team in numerous ways, he's not the guy I'd give 6-7 years to.

To me, that leaves Scott as the only remaining major impact signing left on the boards that fits a clear need for the Sox.

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

To not punt on the year.

Exactly, but that is reactionary decision making, not proactive and well-thought out planning.

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think DET is out after signing Torres. 

I thought so, too, but I keep reading that "insiders say DET and TOR" are the frontrunners.

If TOR knows they will be losing Vlad, maybe they think this will be a semi-preemptive strike.

40 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The cost of doing business in the free agent market is overpaid years at the back end. Not to imply the expected negative value from the back 9 of the contract should be disregarded, just that if you arent willing to overpay , you are playing with scared money.

Really it comes down to do you prefer short term success from Bregman and live with the reduced production on the back nine?  Or go get Arenado and jump right into the reduced production on the back nine?

49 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Jordan Walker is their Roman Anthony.  Unless they are moving him back to 3b or lf, I dont see them moving off of him. Hes not going to DH or AAA or any kind of platoon role. 

They’ve demoted him in the past, partly due to poor outfield defense.  If they can swap Arenado for a RF, maybe 3b is back in play?  Did they move him to the OF because of poor hot corner defense, the presence of Arenado, or both?

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I thought so, too, but I keep reading that "insiders say DET and TOR" are the frontrunners.

If TOR knows they will be losing Vlad, maybe they think this will be a semi-preemptive strike.

Detroit does have Jace Jung for 3b, so I can see them stepping out.  Toronto just can’t seem to get anyone to go there any more.  They’re like the Topeka KS Tourism Bureau…

We could just roll the dice on Story, Campbell & Mayer to fill the 2B, SS and 3B slots with DHam, Grissom & Romy as depth (all with options.)

Figure out how to play Devers, Casas and Yoshida at 1B & DH, or trade one.

OF is more than set with Duran, Anthony and an Abreu-Rafaela rotating positions on a platoon.

Maybe Narvaez can be the defensive catcher we need. Hopefully he hits better than Leon.

Of course, I'm oversimplifying things and assuming all 3 top prospects win a FT job and deserve to keep it. That is unlikely. The problem we have, now is, we don't know which one(s) will work out for us.

49 minutes ago, notin said:

Detroit does have Jace Jung for 3b, so I can see them stepping out.  Toronto just can’t seem to get anyone to go there any more.  They’re like the Topeka KS Tourism Bureau…

If TOR is the only team giving 7-8 years, Bregman will likely choose them.

Maybe he takes a front-end loaded contract with an opt out after 1-2 years. Coming to BOS and having a great year could really build up his value.

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Enter the value of Bregmans defensive versatility.

While I agree, in a general sense, that versatility is an asset, our 3B defense is so horrendous, there would probably never be a situation where Bregman would be a better upgrade anywhere but 3B. I realize that if the logjam at 1B & DH by Devers, Casas and Yoshida cannot be solved via trade or deciding to play Yoshida in LF, then the "upgrade" in 3B defense could be at least partially offset by a loss on offense by benching Yoshida, but who would you sit to bat Yoshida?

His bat is better than Rafaela's. His bat vs LHPs is better than Abreus and vs RHPs over Refsnyder, but I'm not seeing a big loss, except financially, which to JH & Co. means everything.

I'm wondering just how desperate STL will get to trade Arenado. Waiting might bring the cost down. If his offense is declined so much that his age means we have to expect it to get even worse. How much is a glove only 3Bman worth?

I'm huge on defense, but even I can't stomach a 3Bman that might hit .700 in '25 and get worse over the next two years, even if the cost is near min wage. I gotta think Campbell or Mayer can play 3B better than Devers and hit .700. Why trad enaything and add any salary for Arenado?

I think I've come full circle on Arenado. MVP led led me to the coming to Jesus moment. Only a Yoshida-Arenado trade makes any sense to me, but it doesn't to STL, so NO GO. (Now, sit back and watch it happen.)

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We could just roll the dice on Story, Campbell & Mayer to fill the 2B, SS and 3B slots with DHam, Grissom & Romy as depth (all with options.)

Figure out how to play Devers, Casas and Yoshida at 1B & DH, or trade one.

OF is more than set with Duran, Anthony and an Abreu-Rafaela rotating positions on a platoon.

Maybe Narvaez can be the defensive catcher we need. Hopefully he hits better than Leon.

Of course, I'm oversimplifying things and assuming all 3 top prospects win a FT job and deserve to keep it. That is unlikely. The problem we have, now is, we don't know which one(s) will work out for us.

Or - crazy thought here - they could start the year with Casas (1b), Grissom (2b), Devers (3b) and Story (SS) with Yoshida at DH…

It can happen with minimal transactions!!

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Or - crazy thought here - they could start the year with Casas (1b), Grissom (2b), Devers (3b) and Story (SS) with Yoshida at DH…

It can happen with minimal transactions!!

Sure, run back a losing combo.

I've not given up on Grissom, but your continued faith in him over a DHam-Romy platoon surprises me.