Article: Why the Red Sox Should Trade for Seiya Suzuki

[Daniel Fox]

With offensive options dwindling and frustrations mounting, a trade for the Cubs' Seiya Suzuki could be the move that saves the Red Sox' offseason. 

The boggart is one of the most peculiar creatures in the wizarding world of Harry Potter. The boggart loves to hide in dark, enclosed spaces, but nobody knows exactly what it looks like, for it takes the shape of whatever the person looking at fears the most. For Ron Weasley, it’s a spider. For Neville Longbottom, it’s Professor Severus Snape. The point is that everyone, no matter how brave, has a boggart, as the creature’s sole purpose is petrifying the daylights out of whoever dares to come near it.

My boggart is the September 2024 Boston Red Sox offense.

It’s true. Sometimes, when I close my eyes, I can still see Ceddanne Rafaela chasing three curveballs out of the zone. I can still see Wilyer Abreu getting blown away by a 93-mph fastball. I can still see Tyler O’Neill waving helplessly at a well-executed right-handed slider. I can even see Connor Wong popping up to third with a runner on third.

Though a shallow bullpen and the lack of a true ace get most of the attention for causing the downfall of the 2024 Boston Red Sox, it was the offense’s horrific slump that put the nail in the coffin. In September and October, they batted just .224 and ran a wRC+ of 81. The roots of the dying tree were obvious: The lineup was too left-handed, and it struck out far too often. Going into the offseason, addressing both issues was paramount if the Red Sox were serious about contending in 2025.

Yet here we are on January 7, and the only change to the lineup has been the departure of O’Neill to the division-rival Baltimore Orioles. To be fair, I was strongly in the camp that the Red Sox should let O’Neill walk based on his 37% strikeout rate last season and his lengthy injury history. But 31 home runs just walked out the door in the form of the second-best qualified hitter in all of baseball against lefties. While O’Neill’s exodus might not end up being a needle-mover, it is hard not to get worried about seeing potential fits land elsewhere. Teoscar Hernández re-upped with the Dodgers, Gleyber Torres went to the Tigers, and Willy Adames signed a mega-deal with the Giants — all while the Red Sox sat on their hands. Yes, the Red Sox have been successful in rebuilding the rotation, but it’s hard to take them seriously as contenders when their best right-handed bats are Trevor Story, Rob Refsnyder, and Wong.

Even more troubling are the remaining options on the free agent and trade markets. The best bat available is switch-hitter Anthony Santander, who is coming of a 44 home-run season but whose batted ball metrics point to looming regression. Randall Grichuk has been the name linked most to the Red Sox, but he is essentially just a carbon copy of Rob Refsnyder. Nolan Arenado is the biggest name out there, and the Cardinals are desperate to move him, but his bloated contract and declining metrics indicate future disaster, not to mention the fact that he plays the same position as franchise cornerstone Rafael Devers.

The name that has been whispered the most is longtime Astros third baseman Alex Bregman. The appeal is obvious: He is an excellent defender, possesses top-of-the-charts bat-to-ball skills, and would provide veteran leadership and postseason experience that has been sorely lacking in the Red Sox lineup in recent years. It’s worth noting, however, that not only would Bregman be a messy fit, given that he would require a position change to second base and potentially block top prospects Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell, but he hardly qualifies as a Tyler O’Neill replacement. He posted a meager .224/.287/.424 line against left-handed pitching last year, his third straight campaign with drastic reverse platoon splits, and with middling batted ball metrics, there are some doubts about whether he can sustain his 25-homer power without the aid of the Crawford Boxes. Alas, the industry consensus is that the Tigers and the Blue Jays are the favorites for Bregman’s services, so all of these hypotheticals are likely a moot point.

I always try to be honest with you all, and I’m not going to sugarcoat it: The situation is bleak. The Red Sox are running out of time and options, and there is a decent chance they will enter 2025 banking on a healthy Story and an emerging Campbell for their right-handed production. However, there is still one option remaining, someone who would be an absolutely perfect fit to turn this B or C offseason into an A. Let’s talk about Seiya Suzuki.

Whether due to the Cubs failure to make the playoffs or his nagging injuries, Suzuki’s excellence in his first three MLB seasons has flown under the radar. Yet not only has he been a well above-average hitter since arriving in the league in 2022, he has continually gotten better each season. 2024 saw his post career-highs in WAR (3.5), home runs (21), stolen bases (16), on-base percentage (.366), and OPS+ (138). And while he’ll never get mistaken for Jackie Bradley Jr. in the field, he is at least playable in an outfield corner.

The only other drawback to Suzuki's game is a relatively high strikeout rate, but while a 27.4% mark is less than ideal, it is still 10 percentage points lower than the one O’Neill ran last year. Moreover, Suzuki ranked in the 92nd percentile in chase rate and 80th percentile in walk rate, indicating an elite understanding of the strike zone. Suzuki also possesses a career .843 OPS against southpaws, making him a perfect candidate to slot in between Rafael Devers and Triston Casas.

The biggest question isn’t whether he would be a good fit on the Red Sox but whether the Cubs would trade a player of his caliber. The club clearly thinks it has a strong chance to win the weak NL Central in 2025, a point made crystal clear by their trade for the expiring contract of Kyle Tucker. Why would they trade one of their best hitters?

The Cubs are a tricky team to figure out, but one thing that has been readily apparent is that they don’t wish to get into bidding wars with the big-market clubs. The days of spending big money for the likes of Jon Lester and Jason Heyward seem to be a thing of the past, as they haven't been even remotely involved in the sweepstakes for Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and the other top free agents. They haven’t even been motivated to keep their own homegrown stars, as they conducted an everything-must-go sale on Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Kris Bryant rather than extend their contracts (which turned out to be a wise decision.)

Despite their history, you would have to think that Kyle Tucker would be the exception to their stinginess, given both his status as one of the game’s elite players and the trade capital they used to acquire him. If the Cubs are thinking about readying a mega-contract for Tucker, which could approach the $500-million mark, it would make sense to start freeing up some money now. They already sent Cody Bellinger to the Yankees in a de facto salary dump, but they could create even more financial flexibility by dealing Suzuki, who has two years and $38 million left on the initial five-year, $85-million contract he signed before the 2022 season.

For their troubles, the Cubs would receive a package back from the Red Sox that is headlined by Wilyer Abreu. I have written extensively about my desire for Abreu to be moved, but in summation, his left-handedness, drastic platoon splits, and strikeout propensity is a bad fit for the current roster, not to mention the presence of a younger and more talented replacement in Roman Anthony.

None of this is to say that Abreu is a bad player, and I think that he would be a great fit with the Cubs. Adding a Gold Glover who can play all three outfield positions would allow them to give Tucker, who is coming off a serious shin injury, time at DH and take the pressure off of Pete Crow-Armstrong, who struggled mightily at the plate his rookie season. Abreu can also add some punch to a team that finished just 20th in the league in home runs last season, while give the team a long-term left-handed slugger in the event they lose Tucker or Ian Happ, who is a free agent after 2026.

Of course, I am not in the Cubs front office, and there is a chance that they are not interested in Abreu. After all, they do have a similar archetype in 34th overall prospect Owen Cassie, who reached Triple A at the end of last season. That is the tricky thing about mock trades: We have no idea how each team values each player. What I do know, however, is that the Red Sox need a player exactly like Suzuki to balance the lineup and add some more thump in the middle of the order. Whether through Abreu or another young, controllable asset, the Red Sox should do whatever they can to bring him to Boston.

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[Hugh2]

The Red Sox are obviously allergic to building their team through free agency, so they will have to draft and trade for the team they want. 

That's fine, but you only have so many bullets, so why would we want to waste ammunition on what is probably are least need right now.  Duran/Rafaela/Abreu is our outfield with Refnsyder being a great platoon 4th and MLB's top prospect on the verge of playing in the MLB. 

I'm sorry, but if you're going to be unloading the gun, go for a closer or a catcher. 

[moonslav59]

On the surface, I do NOT think the Sox have a high priority need in the OF, but we do need a RHB w OBP skills and some power. Suzuki checks both boxes, but he is a minus -5 on OAA ('22-'24) and 20th in DRS at +1.

He would end up in LF, where we already are all set and overloaded.

He's owed $19M x 2, but his tax hit is $17M x 2. If we traded Rafaela for him, it would cost us less than $11M on the tax line and since Rafaela had many years left, would cost less in total monet, to us ($38M to $48M.) The Cubs might want more, such as Rafaela + Fitts or maybe Crawford, instead.

Hard pass, for me.

[mvp 78]

Hard to get mad at Abreu struggling against a LHP. He 324 wOBA against 4 seamers and 406 SLG. Not his greatest pitch, but not necessarily a huge concern at the moment. 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Hard to get mad at Abreu struggling against a LHP. He 324 wOBA against 4 seamers and 406 SLG. Not his greatest pitch, but not necessarily a huge concern at the moment. 

.514 vs LHPs is not easy to overlook or let slide. 

He does need some chances vs LHPs to show he can get better, but if we want to win in 2025, he should not start vs any LHPs, if we can help it.

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

.514 vs LHPs is not easy to overlook or let slide. 

He does need some chances vs LHPs to show he can get better, but if we want to win in 2025, he should not start vs any LHPs, if we can help it.

If he can't start vs any LHPs, he'll never show that he can get better. 

[notin]

The Cubs don’t need outfielders.  Beyond Happ, PCA, Tucker, and Suzuki, they have BA Top 100 prospects Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara already on the 40 man roster, alongside unranked Alexander Canario.

They might be willing to deal Suzuki, but it won’t be for Abreu.  Most likely they’d want optionable pitching (Fitts?) or a Plan B at 3b, since they plan to start top prospects Matt Shaw, but have very little behind him with the current backup as Miles Mastrobuoni, whose basically a smaller, balder, lefty-hitting Romy González….

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If he can't start vs any LHPs, he'll never show that he can get better. 

Why not? He starts vs RHPs, and see how he does vs LH'd RP'ers.

We can't afford an experiment. Plus, we need PAs for Rafaela to prove he can hit, too.

[notin]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

On the surface, I do NOT think the Sox have a high priority need in the OF, but we do need a RHB w OBP skills and some power. Suzuki checks both boxes, but he is a minus -5 on OAA ('22-'24) and 20th in DRS at +1.

He would end up in LF, where we already are all set and overloaded.

He's owed $19M x 2, but his tax hit is $17M x 2. If we traded Rafaela for him, it would cost us less than $11M on the tax line and since Rafaela had many years left, would cost less in total monet, to us ($38M to $48M.) The Cubs might want more, such as Rafaela + Fitts or maybe Crawford, instead.

Hard pass, for me.

Trade Rafaela for Suzuki?

I know the Cubs don’t need outfielders, but an outfield featuring both Rafaela and Pete Crow-Armstrong would cover more ground than kudzu in Georgia.  That team wouldn’t need a third outfielder.  Anyone else out there would just get in the way.  

Is it legal to have five infielders? Or two DHs? 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Why not? He starts vs RHPs, and see how he does vs LH'd RP'ers.

We can't afford an experiment. Plus, we need PAs for Rafaela to prove he can hit, too.

He needs more PA’s to be able to figure it out. Won’t get that against inconsistent LHP relief appearances.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Trade Rafaela for Suzuki?

I know the Cubs don’t need outfielders, but an outfield featuring both Rafaela and Pete Crow-Armstrong would cover more ground than kudzu in Georgia.  That team wouldn’t need a third outfielder.  Anyone else out there would just get in the way.  

Is it legal to have five infielders? Or two DHs? 

Seems like Boston has had two DHs every year since JD opted in, but one of them keeps having to play in the field.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He needs more PA’s to be able to figure it out. Won’t get that against inconsistent LHP relief appearances.

That may be true, bue unless 2025 is a punt season, or becomes one, we can't afford to experiment, and like I said before, we bench someone else who needs PAs, too, vs LHP, like Rafaela or Refsnyder. (I guess we can platoon Ref with Yoshi at DH.)

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Seems like Boston has had two DHs every year since JD opted in, but one of them keeps having to play in the field.

Yes, and to top that off, most of those "best at DH" players other position was LF, where we also kept a logjam stockpiles.

Now:
Ref & Yoshida: LF, were we already have Duran with a full OF and Anthony on the bubble.

Casas: 1B

Devers: 1B or 3B

Grissom: can't hit well enough to even platoon at DH, but his defense may be worse at 2B or 3B.

Wong: hits okay for a catcher but not a DH, yet anyway, but sucks on D, so maybe DH or 2B is his actual best position.

At least the "second position" is more varied, now.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

That may be true, bue unless 2025 is a punt season, or becomes one, we can't afford to experiment, and like I said before, we bench someone else who needs PAs, too, vs LHP, like Rafaela or Refsnyder. (I guess we can platoon Ref with Yoshi at DH.)

Well I’ve already stated it was a punt season so…

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Well I’ve already stated it was a punt season so…

I'm not quite there, yet, but if it is, then that means no Anthony, Campbell or Mayer, at least until they gain a year, but you keep talking about Campbell at 2B.

I'd say, if we sign Scott, we can be close to being a serious contender. Maybe a trade for a real catcher could get us to that spot.

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not quite there, yet, but if it is, then that means no Anthony, Campbell or Mayer, at least until they gain a year, but you keep talking about Campbell at 2B.

I'd say, if we sign Scott, we can be close to being a serious contender. Maybe a trade for a real catcher could get us to that spot.

If Campbell and Anthony are as good as people say they are, they can contribute to a competitive team. I don't see a reason to keep the training wheels on them. If they faulter, just option them back to AAA.

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Campbell and Anthony are as good as people say they are, they can contribute to a competitive team. I don't see a reason to keep the training wheels on them. If they faulter, just option them back to AAA.

I think the extra year matters to JH & Co, and I can see the reasoning for a team looking to save pennies.