2025 Prospects

[sk7326]

The blurbs from The Athletic:

1. Roman Anthony -

Quote

"His average exit velocity for Triple-A Worcester was 88 mph, although he did start to hit the ball on the ground more (52 percent) in that brief stint, not a major concern but something to watch as he gets so close to a promotion to the majors. He’s very disciplined for his age, chasing just 20 percent of the time in Triple A, with a whiff rate under 9 percent, picking up spin very well even at a level when he was facing guys who’d pitched in the majors. Anthony has mostly played center in the minors, but he’s not very rangy and he’s maybe an average runner, so he’s much more likely to end up in a corner, supplanted in center by someone with plus range. He’s got a chance to be a 30-homer, high-average, high-OBP guy in right field, maybe with plus defense there, which is a “best player in the league” profile."

9. Kristian Campbell

Quote

Campbell was my minor league player of the year for 2024 after he posted a .330/.439/.558 line across three levels, from High A through Triple A, in his first full year in pro ball. ... He’s a plus runner who’s fast enough to play any of those spots, but his fringy arm probably limits him to second or center, with second his best position right now and in the long run as well. His swing has a little funk to it and he can get flat through contact, resulting in a 60 percent groundball rate in his brief time in Triple A, but he has an incredible eye at the plate and gets the bat to the ball consistently enough for hard contact. He does have some holes he’ll have to work on, including four-seamers up and anything moving down and in under his hands or at his front hip, some of which may just be a function of his limited experience before getting to Triple A. He’s also already gained 10-15 pounds of further muscle this winter, which could help with bat control and getting some more loft through contact. He could easily be a plus defender at second and at worst should post high OBPs with 20-30 steals and 50+ extra-base hits a year.

28. Marcelo Mayer - No point quoting the report.  He has simply not shown an ability to stay on the field - otherwise he'd be solidly in the Top 10

42. Franklin Ariast

Quote

Arias destroyed the Florida Complex League last season as an 18-year-old, hitting .355/.471/.584 to win MVP honors and earn a bump up to Low A, where he more than held his own with a .257/.331/.378 line and just a 17.4 percent strikeout rate. He’s got tools and athleticism to spare, showing excellent bat speed and wrist strength already, along with a fantastic swing that has great rhythm to it and lets him get his lower half involved for more power. He’s a true shortstop with soft hands and solid instincts already, showing a plus arm and above-average speed on both sides of the ball. Arias just turned 19 in November and probably gets to High A at some point this year, given how good his contact skills are already. He has the upside of a plus defender at short with above-average OBPs and 20 homers a year, with the only major risk just his age and the distance he has to travel to get to the majors.

97. Yoelin Cespedes

Quote

He’s small but strong, with a powerful swing for someone his size that backs up the numbers he’s produced so far, with 11 homers in 71 career games between the DSL and Florida Complex League. He hit .319/.400/.615 in that brief stint in Florida last year, striking out just 19 times in the 105 PA, showing strong command of the strike zone already. He’s not going to stick at shortstop, however, and might end up at third base rather than second given his frame and how his body looks now at age 19. He’ll move to Low A this year and may take some time to get all his hand strength back; beyond that, he looks like a hitter who could move quickly through the low minors because he’s stronger and more polished than the typical teenaged hitter, with the upside of an above-average regular at third with fringy defense but a strong all-around offensive game.

For some Sox-adjacent numbers

Kyle Teel at 37, Braden Montgomery at 38 and Nick Yorke made a re-leap in at 50.

[moonslav59]

 

From Soxprospects.com...

Roberto Clemente Professional Baseball League (Puerto Rico)

Eduardo Rivera's (pictured) team, Mayaguez, won the championship series over San Juan, and Rivera played a major role. In the series-clinching Game Six, Rivera fired five shutout innings and only allowed one hit. He walked just one and struck out five. It was the left-hander's second five-inning shutout performance of the series, as he ends the series with no runs allowed and 12 strikeouts over 10 innings. After a huge winter, Rivera, the 58th ranked prospects here at SoxProspects, will look to make an impact in the coming weeks down in Fort Myers. 

[moonslav59]

So these are the prospects added to the soxprospects.com rankings, since the end of the season rankings. (Trades and IFA signings)

28. Narvaez (ERC trade)

30. Dorian Soto (IFA)

36. Yhoiker Fajardo (Booser trade)

37. Harold Rivas (IFA)

38. Hector Ramos (IFA)

39. Sadbiel Delzine (IFA)

52. Andruw Musett (attrition)

58. Eduardo Rivera (attrition)

59. Danny Kirwin (attrition)

 

[sk7326]

ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) has its top 100 ... now #1 is Roki Sasaki ... who is a bit of a weird case being 23 years old and on a minor league deal ... McDaniels lists him as a "prospect".  So maybe this is a Top 99

2. Roman Anthony

4. Marcelo Mayer

26. Kristian Campbell (McDaniel notes the mechanics offensively are a bit awkward and he is not getting much lift on the ball, and that gives him a wider band of outcomes, hence the wide range of assessments leaguewide)

I can see Arias and Cespedes being outside of a Top 100 if you are going to prioritize "distance to the big leagues"  

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So these are the prospects added to the soxprospects.com rankings, since the end of the season rankings. (Trades and IFA signings)

28. Narvaez (ERC trade)

30. Dorian Soto (IFA)

36. Yhoiker Fajardo (Booser trade)

37. Harold Rivas (IFA)

38. Hector Ramos (IFA)

39. Sadbiel Delzine (IFA)

52. Andruw Musett (attrition)

58. Eduardo Rivera (attrition)

59. Danny Kirwin (attrition)

I believe Musett was in the top 60 at various points during last season.

[mvp 78]

Also, they mentioned on a recent podcast that Musset jumped less due to attrition and more due to what they've heard about him in the offseason and his time spent in Ft Myers. Even with the losses, the 6 additions would've most likely kept fringe guys out of the top 60. Kirwin is a little on the upswing due to what they've heard and his performance at AFL too. 

[moonslav59]

Good points about my "attrition" label.

We lost at least 5 prospects through trades...

4. Teel, 5. Montgomery, 8. Meidroth, 18. Wikelman, 25. E R-C

We added 4 IFA prospects and Fajardo, the guy we got for Booser. so I think it was 5 for 5. Was Shugart a top 60 prospect? Did I miss anyone?

[sk7326]

The Athletic ranks Boston with the #2 system in the league ... https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6094581/2025/01/30/mlb-farm-system-rankings-2025/

Law's blurb

Quote

Boston’s system had a chance to be first before the Garrett Crochet trade, which sent two players on my top 100 to the White Sox (for good reason, though). They’ve got two guys in the top 10, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg — the system is still loaded with position players who at least have everyday ceilings, including a steady stream of potential stars coming out of their international program. It just makes it all the more puzzling that the new baseball operations heads decided to pull a midnight massacre on their scouting group, notably the pro side, just as the system has recovered from a low point in the wake of the 2018 World Series win. Farm systems don’t get and stay good by accident, or magic. It takes people.

 

[moonslav59]

They have clearly tried to increase the focus on pitching, but it does seem puzzling to purge the scouting group that did so well finding everyday players. Maybe they didn't want to pay to just add more. Who knows.

The amount of pitchers we have added to our system in the 15 months Brez has been in control is pretty amazing. He has made several everyday players for pitcher trades, as well as older pitchers for younger ones. He drafted more pitchers than we've seen in a while, and paid them more than recently. He's also spent more bonus money on IFAs and signed several pitchers as FAs and minor league FAs. He swung and missed on the deadline trades for pitching (Paxton, Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims, but a mild effort was made.)

Crochet, Buehler, Sandoval, Giolito & Criswell

Fitts & Priester

Hendriks, Chapman, Fulmer & Wilson

Slaten, Weissert, I Campbell & Sandlin

and a few other promising ones, along with some not-so-good additions.

We traded away Teel, Montgomery, Meidroth, E Vadlez, Nick Yorke, Lugo & a few others.

We did trade E Rod for Narvaez, but most have been everyday players for pitchers.

[sk7326]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They have clearly tried to increase the focus on pitching, but it does seem puzzling to purge the scouting group that did so well finding everyday players. Maybe they didn't want to pay to just add more. Who knows.

The amount of pitchers we have added to our system in the 15 months Brez has been in control is pretty amazing. He has made several everyday players for pitcher trades, as well as older pitchers for younger ones. He drafted more pitchers than we've seen in a while, and paid them more than recently. He's also spent more bonus money on IFAs and signed several pitchers as FAs and minor league FAs. He swung and missed on the deadline trades for pitching (Paxton, Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims, but a mild effort was made.)

Crochet, Buehler, Sandoval, Giolito & Criswell

Fitts & Priester

Hendriks, Chapman, Fulmer & Wilson

Slaten, Weissert, I Campbell & Sandlin

and a few other promising ones, along with some not-so-good additions.

We traded away Teel, Montgomery, Meidroth, E Vadlez, Nick Yorke, Lugo & a few others.

We did trade E Rod for Narvaez, but most have been everyday players for pitchers.

Purging pro scouting has been an industry trend for sure - the Astros famously did it ... some front offices have decided since they can get StatCast Data for the minors that the pro scouting might not be necessary.  That said, not everything has to be a cost to get cut (ha!) - and scouting is one of the cheap places to gain advantage ... the Rays, as cash strapped as they are, do not skimp on that. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

Purging pro scouting has been an industry trend for sure - the Astros famously did it ... some front offices have decided since they can get StatCast Data for the minors that the pro scouting might not be necessary.  That said, not everything has to be a cost to get cut (ha!) - and scouting is one of the cheap places to gain advantage ... the Rays, as cash strapped as they are, do not skimp on that. 

I posted recently some excerpts about the scouting issue and their reliance on stats and models. It makes zero sense for a team with huge revenue streams to skimp anywhere that doesn't impact the CBT even if you are relying on it less. 

Keith Law tends to have an anti-BOS bias per my memory, but I agree with him big time here. At least keep the same scouts and have them confirm your models? I don't get it. 

[sk7326]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I posted recently some excerpts about the scouting issue and their reliance on stats and models. It makes zero sense for a team with huge revenue streams to skimp anywhere that doesn't impact the CBT even if you are relying on it less. 

Keith Law tends to have an anti-BOS bias per my memory, but I agree with him big time here. At least keep the same scouts and have them confirm your models? I don't get it. 

He may, he may not - he jokes he hates your team.  He loved Theo's front office and loved Dombrowski less.  

The Red Sox with their revenue have no excuse to skimp.  Now, they are not the only team skimping on pro scouting this way - doesn't make it a good idea.  

As always - while the Red Sox may not be QUITE at the Dodgers level, they definitely are as high as you want to get revenuewise ... you have the money to do all of it, fund the major league roster, have the best, largest R&D and a robust, sizeable scouting force.  The Dodgers don't skimp on any of this - even though they are spending big on the major league club. 

[mvp 78]

Dobbins interview on FanGraphs:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-prospect-hunter-dobbins-has-added-a-splinker-and-upped-his-velo/

 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

He may, he may not - he jokes he hates your team.  He loved Theo's front office and loved Dombrowski less.  

The Red Sox with their revenue have no excuse to skimp.  Now, they are not the only team skimping on pro scouting this way - doesn't make it a good idea.  

As always - while the Red Sox may not be QUITE at the Dodgers level, they definitely are as high as you want to get revenuewise ... you have the money to do all of it, fund the major league roster, have the best, largest R&D and a robust, sizeable scouting force.  The Dodgers don't skimp on any of this - even though they are spending big on the major league club. 

The Dodgers spend, have a great scouting department and use metrics too. It doesn't make any sense for the Sox to not try to emulate that success in some fashion. 

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, sk7326 said:

Purging pro scouting has been an industry trend for sure - the Astros famously did it ... some front offices have decided since they can get StatCast Data for the minors that the pro scouting might not be necessary.  That said, not everything has to be a cost to get cut (ha!) - and scouting is one of the cheap places to gain advantage ... the Rays, as cash strapped as they are, do not skimp on that. 

So, we haven't hired replacement scouts, I gather.

Seems like using data and scouting would be a way to improve without spending much.

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So, we haven't hired replacement scouts, I gather.

Seems like using data and scouting would be a way to improve without spending much.

No, just more data. Don't need scouts anymore! 🤢

[moonslav59]

If the MLB 13 man pitching staff begins with Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Wink, Wilson, Weissert and Guerrero, these would be the pitchers lined up to make the 14 man AAA staff. (Assuming Sandoval, Murphy & Perales begin the season on the 60 Day IL.)

SP: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Fulmer, Gambrell, Drohan

RP: Bernardino, Penrod, Kelly, I Campbell, Mata, A Adams, J Moran

Noah Davis, Wyatt Mills, Robert Stock, Brian Van Belle, Hobie Haris, S Newcomb, Wyatt Olds, Jose Adames

That looks like pretty decent AAA pitching depth, for once.

[sk7326]

Law's Writeup of the System https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6098646/2025/02/03/red-sox-2025-top-20-prospects-keith-law/

Top 20 prospects

1. Roman Anthony, OF (#1 overall)
2. Kristian Campbell 2B/OF (#9)
3. Marcelo Mayer, SS (#28)
4. Franklin Arias, SS (#42)
5. Yoelin Cespedes, SS (#97)
6. Miguel Bleis, OF - lost season, hard contact not getting lift.  2 years removed from 2023 injuries, see what happens
7. Luis Perales, RHP - TJS, you know the story
8. Jhostynixon Garcia, OF - Great power, good defense, chases too many balls but above average starter with big power is there
9. David Sandlin, RHP - Threw strikes, gave up too many HRs, had some elbow soreness.  But showed enough promise with a splitter that he could be a 4th starter type fairly soon
10. Juan Valera, RHP - Crushed the complex league. Long way to go, but above average starter talent
11. Yordanny Monegro, RHP - Had that ridiculous IP stretch.  Relied too much on junkballing.  #3 starter sort if he puts it together and throws the fastball more confidently.
12. Hunter Dobbins, RHP - No elite pitches, but a bunch of good ones.  If control improves, he can be a mid-rotation starter, high end reliever otherwise
13. Jedixon Paez, LHP - Weird delivery, good control, 4th starter potential if he can add a little more zip to the fastball
14. Payton Tolle, LFP - 2nd round pick.  Tall with good deception in delivery.  But fastball is all he has right now.
15. Johanfran Garcia, C - Looked awesome before the knee injury.  See what happens.
16. Connelly Early, LHP - Terrific in high-A and low-A.  But (again) relies on off speed stuff and command with a meh fastball. 
17. Richard Fitts, RHP - We've seen him - we know what he is.  
18. Conrad Cason, RHP/SS - 8th rounder, announced as a 2-way player (whatever it takes to sign him).  Pitching is much more advanced and much more viable long term.
19. Mikey Romero, SS/2B - Terrible back injury in 2023.  Probably 2B only.  This could be the first healthy year to see what he can do since he was drafted.
20. Blaze Jordan, 3B/1B - Probably should only play 1B now.  Power needs to get into real games more.

Nazzan Zanatello and Antonio Anderson - quoting directly here

Quote

Shortstop Nazzan Zanetello, their second-round pick in 2023, looked lost in Low A last year, hitting .157/.279/.279 with a 44 percent strikeout rate. Yes, he needed to be in short-season ball, which no longer exists, but I’m not sure even that would have produced tangibly better results. His draftmate Antonio Anderson, drafted one round later, was almost as bad, hitting .186/.311/.270 but only striking out 25 percent of the time. Teams are just going to stop taking these rawer high school hitters if they’re not going to be allowed to develop them properly.

Breakout candidate: The Password Guy - I don't want to look up the spelling 

[moonslav59]

Good stuff sk.

[moonslav59]

Here is a list of system graduated prospects still on the 40 by date:

'17 Devers (top rank was #1)

'21 Houck (2) Whitlock (4)

'22 Duran (3) Bello (3) Winckowski (9) Wong (11) Crawford (17)

'23 Casas (1) Murphy (9) Kelly (23) Bernardino (NR)

'24 Rafaela (3) Abreu (7) Slaten (12) DHam (19) Sogard (31)

17 Total, but some started in other systems. (Whitlock never pitched in our minors before MLB.)

 

[mvp 78]

Law has an interesting take on Monegro and Paez, but then calls Early's FB "meh." What a weirdo. Monegro's FB issues aren't a lack of confidence, but shape. Paez just doesn't throw hard consistently and can't miss bats with it. SoxProspects is higher on Early and believes he has the higher ceiling of the three.

[sk7326]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Law has an interesting take on Monegro and Paez, but then calls Early's FB "meh." What a weirdo. Monegro's FB issues aren't a lack of confidence, but shape. Paez just doesn't throw hard consistently and can't miss bats with it. SoxProspects is higher on Early and believes he has the higher ceiling of the three.

I was paraphrasing some for brevity - looking back his blurb did not mention confidence with Monegro - but that he did not throw the fastball enough in terms of pitch mix, but if he uses it more to get ahead to set up the off speed stuff, there is a good starter there.  

The exact quote on Early here fwiw 

Quote

Early’s first full season in the minors was a big success, as the Virginia alum threw 103 2/3 innings between High A and Double A, struck out 30.8 percent of hitters, walked 8.7 percent, and kept the ball in the park despite just average velocity on his four-seamer. It’s a very old-school approach — he throws offspeed stuff about two-thirds of the time, with a slider, change, and curve, nothing plus, but some deception from the way he comes slightly across his body and the added confusion from his willingness to throw any pitch in any count. If he tightens his command up, he could be a fifth starter, but he’s walking a tightrope with his arsenal.

 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, sk7326 said:

I was paraphrasing some for brevity - looking back his blurb did not mention confidence with Monegro - but that he did not throw the fastball enough in terms of pitch mix, but if he uses it more to get ahead to set up the off speed stuff, there is a good starter there.  

The exact quote on Early here fwiw 

 

See, I like that Early is a little old school. That's why I've been a little higher on him from the time he was drafted. I think he can probably get to a 4th starter ceiling. 

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

Top Suspects List

as Red would say.

[moonslav59]

Top Sox Prospects from soxprospects.com by position (I moved a few to fit the top prospects into the starting 9):

C: Jo Garcia (15 A-)

1B: Ju Gonzales (25 FCL)

2B: Campbell (2 AAA)

3B: Mayer (3 AAA) * from SS

SS: Arais (5 A+)

LF: Jh Garcia (12 AA)

CF: Bleis (6 A+)

RF: Anthony (1 AAA)

DH: Cespedes (7 A-)

Bench: Romero (13 AA) Castro (18 AA) Narvaez (28 MLB) N Taylor (26 A+) or Jordan (27 AA)

SP: Perales (4 AA) Dobbins (8 AAA) Fitts (9 AAA) Tolle (10 A+) Early (14 AA)

RP: Sandlin (11 AA) Guerrero (17 MLB) Pendrod (20 AAA) Cason (16 A-) Valera (19 A-) Monegro (21 AA) D Reyes (22 FCL) J Paez (23 A+) or Mullins (24 AA)

When you look at this, as a whole, it looks pretty solid and maybe more balanced that it has been since the days of Lester, Buch and Masterson.

 

 

[Larry Cook]

On 1/7/2025 at 12:14 PM, mvp 78 said:

Arias will need to hit outside of the FCL for me to believe. I'll remain relatively hopeful though. 

Arias is the best defensive short stop I saw in the Red Sox farm system last season! Wow!! 
but he is a bit of a free swinger, aka rafeala! 
2025 is a big year for him! I think if he proves he can hit, he ends the year in Portland 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Arias is the best defensive short stop I saw in the Red Sox farm system last season! Wow!! 
but he is a bit of a free swinger, aka rafeala! 
2025 is a big year for him! I think if he proves he can hit, he ends the year in Portland 

Agreed. That's why I put him at SS and Mayer at 3B.

When you look at my grouping of top prospects, we seem to have just about every position covered, pretty well. The weakest might be Justin Gonzales at 1B, but we have Casas and Devers under control for many years.

Of course, the pitching is the most questionable, but I still insist we have more promising pitchers than we've had in a long time, but still not enough highly promising ones. Only a healthy Perales rates to be top 100 in MLB. Tolle, Fitts, Sandlin, Cason, Early, Valera, D Reyes and Delzine all have a way to go to be near top 100.

[moonslav59]

How about Bryan Mata?

IFA signing in 2016. 9 years in the Sox system without a peep in the bigs. (8 seasons due to COVID)

105 IP in 2019 (A+ and AA) 83 IP in '22 (2.49 ERA in 4 levels combined) Not much, since due to injuries.

Made it up to #2 in the summer of 2018 and again in the fall of '19. He was still #3 at the end of '20 and 6-7th through '22. He was even 5th to start 2023, but dropped quickly, afterwards. He's 56th, now and seems to have lost all hope.

soxprospects.com's summary:

Potential volatile up-and-down reliever. Ceiling of fringy middle-reliever. Injuries and lack of consistency make him a very risky player. Was once seen as a potential starter, but was pushed to the bullpen due to inability to stay healthy and hold stuff for multiple innings. At his best now, will show two averageish pitches, but stuff has trended down. Unclear where velocity will be at when he is truly healthy as he has not been for several years. In 2024, looks showed okay stuff, but really struggled with command and control which was a question even before he missed considerable time.

 

[mvp 78]