Maddie’s 2025 Payroll Blueprint: A Dream of Spring

[Maddie Landis]

Talk Sox recently unveiled a fun tool to build-your-own 2025 roster. 

For this exercise, I’m using projected contract values outlined in an Athletic article by Tim Britton and the MLB Trade Rumors Projected Arbitration Salaries for 2025. 

The 2025 CBT threshold is $241 million. 

Sox Stats outlined on the team’s financial situation on Blue Sky:  

• “The Red Sox current sit roughly $63M under the luxury tax threshold. If they spend more, up to $83M this winter, their only penalty is a $4M tax. They can spend $103M and their only penalty is a $12M tax.  After that, it's higher taxes and your first-round pick is moved down 10 spots.”

Based on Sam Kennedy’s recent comments, the Red Sox are prepared to pay the competitive balance tax so they could dish out $103 million in contracts this offseason. 

Starting Rotation

1. Max Fried
2. Tanner Houck
3. Garret Crochet
4. Brayan Bello
5. Lucas Giolito

Bullpen

• Tanner Scott
• Justin Slaten
• Liam Hendriks
• Garrett Whitlock
• Cooper Criswell
• Luis Guerrero
• Greg Weissert
• Brennan Bernardino

Lineup

1. CF: Jarren Duran
2. LF: Juan Soto
3. 3B: Rafael Devers
4. 1B: Triston Casas
5. SS: Trevor Story
6. DH: Masataka Yoshida 
7. 2B: Vaughn Grissom
8. C: Connor Wong
9. RF: Ceddanne Rafaela

Bench

• OF: Rob Refsnyder
• UTL: David Hamilton
• UTL: Romy Gonzalez
• C: Carson Kelly

Free Agent Acquisitions

LHP Max Fried, 6-year, $180 million contract

Max Fried is a perfect fit for the Red Sox. He’s an elite southpaw and the Red Sox rotation lacks a frontline lefthanded starter. He’s a proven ace and led the Brave’s starter’s pitchers in WAR (15.4) from 2020-24. He’s a clubhouse guy. He’s best friends with Lucas Giolito (and Jack Flaherty). 

Fried is more consistent than he’s given credit for. He posts well below league-average ERA and FIP. His K% rate grades above league average. His metrics don’t scream a sudden decline. He’s represented by the Baseball Team at CAA, not Scott Boras, so his contract shouldn’t be too egregious.

OF Juan Soto, 12-year, $540 million contract

It’s Juan Soto. Enough said.

C Carson Kelly, 2-year, $14 million contract, mutual option

I wrote about Carson Kelly last week. 

In recent years, Kelly’s bat hasn’t held up, but he’s a competent defender who would provide balance for Connor Wong’s defensive woes.

LHP Tanner Scott, 4-year, $64 million contract

It’s unlikely that Kenley Jansen will resign with the Red Sox. They need a proven closer. Garrett Whitlock and Liam Hendriks return to the bullpen, but both are coming back from injuries. They could pitch poorly so Tanner Scott could help offset any of their setbacks and gives Alex Cora a go-to guy in the 9th. 

Trade Targets: LHP Garrett Crochet, $2.9 million

• Red Sox Trade: OF Wilyer Abreu, SP Kutter Crawford, OF Jhostynxon Garcia (“The Password”)
• Red Sox Receive, SP Garrett Crochet

Crochet is frequently brought up as a trade target for the Red Sox. 

Given their annus horribilis, the White Sox will/should be desperate for any help they can get. Crochet has only pitched one solid season, so the White Sox's asking price shouldn’t be too high. Since he was a former relief pitcher, he doesn’t have that much mileage on his arm. 

He’s cheap, and the Red Sox have the financial capability to offer him an extension. It seems like the perfect deal if they can trade for him without giving up any of the Big Four. 

With these moves, the Red Sox payroll would increase to $230.30 million next year. It gives them some wiggle room to take on additional contracts at the trade deadline and fills the team’s need for left-handed starting pitchers, bullpen depth, and a bonafide Hall-of-Fame player.

• C: Connor Wong ($0.78M)
• 1B: Tristan Casas ($0.78M)
• 2B: Vaughn Grissom ($0.78M)
• 3B: Rafael Devers ($29.00M)
• SS: Trevor Story ($23.33M)
• LF: Juan Soto ($40.00M)
• CF: Jarren Duran ($4.90M)
• RF: Ceddanne Rafaela ($1.25M)
• DH: Masataka Yoshida ($18.00M)
• 4th OF: Rob Refsnyder ($1.95M)
• Utility: David Hamilton ($0.78M)
• Utility: Romy Gonzalez ($0.77M)
• Backup C: Carson Kelly ($6.00M)
• NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)
• SP1: Max Fried ($30.00M)
• SP2: Tanner Houck ($4.50M)
• SP3: Garrett Crochet ($2.90M)
• SP4: Brayan Bello ($9.17M)
• SP5: Lucas Giolito ($19.25M)
• RP: Tanner Scott ($11.50M)
• RP: Justin Slaten ($0.78M)
• RP: Liam Hendriks ($10.00M)
• RP: Garrett Whitlock ($5.50M)
• RP: Cooper Criswell ($0.76M)
• RP: Luis Guerrero ($0.78M)
• RP: Greg Weissert ($0.78M)
• RP: Brennan Bernardino ($0.76M)
• NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)

Payroll is 11.11% over budget

Edited December 5, 2024 by Maddie Landis

[drewski6]

I like it.  I would just add that I doubt that Grissom would win the job with options such as moving Rafaela to infield (to get ANthony in there) or a stratight swap of Grissom for Kristian Campbell.

Obviously, we dont need to commit to Grissom as an everyday player if a prospect wins a major league job and I suspect one will at some point.  There will, of course, also be injury attrition.  But if you consider that you dont have Roman Anthony or Campbell on this 26 man, they are serving as depth and thats good depth.

[drewski6]

I do worry a bit about 40 man roster space, but I assume there are guys that can get DFA'd

[drewski6]

And you are creating some 40 man openings with the Crochet trade.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I like it.  I would just add that I doubt that Grissom would win the job with options such as moving Rafaela to infield (to get ANthony in there) or a stratight swap of Grissom for Kristian Campbell.

Obviously, we dont need to commit to Grissom as an everyday player if a prospect wins a major league job and I suspect one will at some point.  There will, of course, also be injury attrition.  But if you consider that you dont have Roman Anthony or Campbell on this 26 man, they are serving as depth and thats good depth.

I'd trade Grissom for a solid middle reliever.

[Hugh2]

Love it, this is pretty much where I see things going.  I think there could be a different bullpen name or two.  Love adding Soto and adding a good catcher. 

I do think there's a very good chance a rookie starting. 

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd trade Grissom for a solid middle reliever.

Agreed, it feels to me with Story, Campbell, Cedanne covering some MI, Hamilton, Sogard.....Grissom has a bit of a mountain (lets call it a large hill) to climb to get regular PT

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Agreed, it feels to me with Story, Campbell, Cedanne covering some MI, Hamilton, Sogard.....Grissom has a bit of a mountain (lets call it a large hill) to climb to get regular PT

I can see Hamilton sticking around for awhile. People prefer Romy, but he's very replaceable IMO.

[moonslav59]

I like our MI depth. I think a Grissom-DHam platoon at 2B could be okay. Romy has some promise of improving. Campbell and Mayer may be the MI of the future. Story needs a healthy season to salvage a tiny bit of respect.

Our deeper minor MI depth is formidable.