Article: Breaking Down the Free Agency Rumors: How Would Willy Adames Fit With the Red Sox?

[Davy Andrews]

With the Red Sox rumored to be involved in negotiations for the star shortstop, let's think about how he might actually fit on the roster.

According to a report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, the Red Sox are among the many teams expressing interest in shortstop Willy Adames. Morosi also named the Astros, Blue Jays, and Braves as involved, while listing the Dodgers, Giants, and Yankees as potential suitors. Ben Clemens of FanGraphs ranked Adames second in this prospect class and speculated that he was likely to end up with the Dodgers. Matthew Lenz wrote this news up yesterday, so what I’m interested in today is how Adames might fit on the roster. We should start with the obvious: he’s an excellent, excellent shortstop.

Adames has been incredibly consistent, putting up at least 3.1 fWAR in every season since 2019 (aside from the abbreviated 2020 campaign, when his 1.2 would have translated to 3.2 over a full season). Altogether, he’s posted 20.1 fWAR over the past six seasons, which ranks ninth among shortstops. He’s never played fewer than 139 games or hit fewer than 20 homers in a full season. Pretty much the only thing he doesn’t do is steal bases; or at least he didn’t steal bases until recently. In 2024, he stole a career-high 21. He’s truly a complete player, he’s hands-down the best shortstop on the market, and it’s a crime that he’s never been an All-Star.

That said, there is some real risk involved here. There’s no doubt that Adames is a top 10 shortstop in the game, but he’ll command a five- or six-year contract, which means whoever signs him will be paying him until his age-33 or age-34 season. If his aging curve looks like the standard aging curve, then that’s great and his next contract will start with at least a few years of his prime. If he ages even a little bit more quickly, however, then his contract might not look so pretty. The advanced defensive metrics were down on Adames in 2024, and according to Statcast, his sprint speed has taken a step back in every season of his career. In 2024, it ranked exactly at the league average. If he continues getting slower, if his defense doesn’t bounce back, that puts a lot of pressure on his bat. Whoever signs Adames will of course understand that his next five seasons won’t look as great as his last five, but there is at least some risk that the first few don’t look as pretty as they hoped, leaving the whole contract either underwhelming or underwater.

Now to the Red Sox. Obviously, Trevor Story is under contract until 2027, with a club option for 2028. Story has an opt-out after the 2025 season, but seeing as he’s played just 163 games over the past three seasons, it’s unimaginable that he’d opt out. If the Red Sox were to sign Adames, one of those two players would slide over to second base, which would represent an enormous improvement. The Red Sox got -2.3 fWAR from the second base position in 2025. That was the worst in baseball by an enormous margin. The Angels were the only other team with a negative number.

It's ugly. Say the Red Sox sign Adames and he puts up just 2.0 WAR. That would make him a league-average player and represent the worst season of his entire career. It would be a huge disappointment. However, it would also be a net gain of more than four wins from the second base spot. If the Red Sox had won four more games in 2024, they would’ve made the playoffs! Upgrading at second base would be huge.

Obviously, the Red Sox would like to finally get a full, healthy season from Story, but after three truncated seasons, they probably shouldn’t be expecting it. Signing one of the game’s premier middle infielders wouldn’t just raise the team’s ceiling, it would also raise the floor. If Story goes down, the team wouldn’t need to resort to what they did last year, moving Ceddanne Rafaela out of center field, where he’s spectacular, to shortstop, where he’s, well, unspectacular.

The obvious concern is that signing Adames would block Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell at shortstop and second base. However, Mayer has yet to make it to Triple-A or to put up a full, healthy season, so it’s probably too early to worry about blocking him. Campbell’s ascent is more pressing, as he obliterated the pitching at three different levels in 2024. He’s still played in just 75 games at Double-A or higher, so it’s unlikely that he’ll make the team out of camp, but if he keeps on hitting in 2025, he’d deserve a promotion sometime during the second half of the season. At that point, the Red Sox would have more infielders than places to put them, all of them under contract until 2027 or later. While that’s a good problem to have, it’s definitely not the most efficient way to spend your money. Letting Adames slide over to third and getting Rafael Devers some more time at DH would be great, but Masataka Yoshida is currently ensconced at DH, and his recent shoulder surgery means that he’ll be very hard to trade at the moment. You’d like to slide Devers over to first base eventually, but that really won’t make sense as long as Triston Casas is on the roster, and the Red Sox have very sensibly indicated that they’re not particularly interested in trading a young, cost-controlled slugger with a career 125 wRC+.

To recap, here are the questions the Red Sox face in contemplating signing Adames: Do they think that Adames will age well? Do they think that Story can stay healthy? Do they intend to trade either Mayer or Campbell, and if not, do they think that either player will force his way onto the big-league roster soon? Lastly, if all goes well, will they mind spending big money on a free agent shortstop when the team faces a possible glut of infielders? No team has an unlimited budget, and if the team feels strongly that Mayer and Campbell are going to excel in Boston soon, then passing on Adames would allow them to spend bigger on pitching (or maybe even Juan Soto). We'll have to wait and see how these priorities sort themselves out, but it's impossible to deny that Adames would make the Red Sox a better club right now.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

As a Brewers fan, I've paid a lot of attention to Adames and his defensive drop-off is baffling. You expect a guy to lose a step, some twitch, etc. and it's entirely possible that happened to Adames in 2024... but what tanked his defensive metrics is kicking the ball around the diamond.

And that doesn't seem like a loss of skill or a new standard going forward, that sounds like a defensive slump.

So while his defensive metrics are concerning, I'm not entirely convinced it's permanent.

[notin]

I don’t see him as a fit unless the Sox are listening to me and want to move Devers off third.

Story to 2b certainly worked out before, but the Sox have better options (Hamilton, Campbell, Mayer, Grissom) for 2b at this point than they had in 2022.  Moving Devers to 1b/DH with Casas means moving on from Yoshida, and that makes more sense to me - and I’m still the rare believer in Yoshida - than blocking the quartet I mentioned above.

Unless the goal is to move Casas as well.  But replacing Casas with Adames, while definitely helping the defense, will certainly hurt the offense…

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Davy Andrews said:

Obviously, the Red Sox would like to finally get a full, healthy season from Story, but after three truncated seasons, they probably shouldn’t be expecting it. 

The obvious concern is that signing Adames would block Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell at shortstop and second base. However, Mayer has yet to make it to Triple-A or to put up a full, healthy season, so it’s probably too early to worry about blocking him. Campbell’s ascent is more pressing, as he obliterated the pitching at three different levels in 2024. He’s still played in just 75 games at Double-A or higher, so it’s unlikely that he’ll make the team out of camp, but if he keeps on hitting in 2025, he’d deserve a promotion sometime during the second half of the season. Letting Adames slide over to third and getting Rafael Devers some more time at DH would be great, but Masataka Yoshida is currently ensconced at DH, and his recent shoulder surgery means that he’ll be very hard to trade at the moment. You’d like to slide Devers over to first base eventually, but that really won’t make sense as long as Triston Casas is on the roster, and the Red Sox have very sensibly indicated that they’re not particularly interested in trading a young, cost-controlled slugger with a career 125 wRC+.

 

Story - injury risk every year since being with the Sox

Mayer - injury risk every year since being with the Sox

Masa - out to start the year at the least

Casas - injury risk every year since being with the Sox

If there's only one thing I can believe it's that Campbell could make the Opening Day roster and be the everyday 2B. If he's not called up until the 2nd half of the year, it's because he's taken a step back in his development IMO. 

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

S

If there's only one thing I can believe it's that Campbell could make the Opening Day roster and be the everyday 2B. If he's not called up until the 2nd half of the year, it's because he's taken a step back in his development IMO. 

… or he’s injured…

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

… or he’s injured…

I will hunt you down... 🥷

[Davy Andrews]

7 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

As a Brewers fan, I've paid a lot of attention to Adames and his defensive drop-off is baffling. You expect a guy to lose a step, some twitch, etc. and it's entirely possible that happened to Adames in 2024... but what tanked his defensive metrics is kicking the ball around the diamond.

And that doesn't seem like a loss of skill or a new standard going forward, that sounds like a defensive slump.

So while his defensive metrics are concerning, I'm not entirely convinced it's permanent.

You're so right about this, and I should have mentioned it. He's always made his share of errors, and a few more here and there is a lot less concerning than an actual drop-off in range.

[Hitch]

This has very much like a 'Red Sox are known to be aggressive this year, let's get their names linked with our boy' feel to it.

[Hugh2]

Juan Soto is the obvious exception because he's Juan Soto, but I don't think the Sox should be focused on positional players this offseason, although I would like to see an upgrade at the catcher position. 

It does make sense to check in on players, really everyone, because you never know how things may transpire.  What if the Sox get an offer they really like for a pitcher that includes a package of Kristian Campbell OR Marcelo Mayer, I'm not saying they're shopping him around but if they were too then all of a sudden a guy like Willy Adames might be a lot more intriguing to them. 

It makes sense to check in on guys, even if they're not your priority.  Because you should have your plan A, plan B, plan C and even plan D ready to roll.  I don't think there's a very big chance they seriously go after Willy. 

[mvp 78]

If they don't snag Soto, Teoscar is fine for a Plan B. I don't think I'd sign Adames and I'm not sure I'd even sing Kim. They have enough young guys to work into the lineup that I'd rather focus on pitching.