Article: The Red Sox Should Consider Trading Jarren Duran For An Ace

[smokedogg1982]

He claims that Boras goofed him out of signing with the Sox. The Sox claim they made him an offer and he didn't like their chances of contending.

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Rumor had it the Red Sox weren't really interested in Montgomery because they didn't think highly of his stuff.

 

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

of course but not a chance in hell the Tigers do that

Skenes is with PIT and is pre-arb. He'd take more than Duran to get, but I used him as an example of someone I would trade Duran for. Nobody is untouchable, if the return is better and fills a higher need area.

Shubal is with Tigers but has just 2 years of control. 4 years of Duran for 2 of Skubla makes we worry, too much. If he agreed to an extension, I'd do it, yesterday.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, smokedogg1982 said:

He claims that Boras goofed him out of signing with the Sox. The Sox claim they made him an offer and he didn't like their chances of contending.

 

Is that what they heard from Jordan directly or what Boras said that Jordan said? 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Rumor had it the Red Sox weren't really interested in Montgomery because they didn't think highly of his stuff.

Opposing hitters thought really highly of his stuff this year. 

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Castillo is at best the #4 SP in the Mariners rotation today.  He got the opening day start out not respect. Both players are close to the same age with fairly similar contracts and both fit the needs of each team. There are FAR dumber trade suggestions on this forum than this.

He may be SEA's 3 or 4 starter, but he'd be our #2.

SEA is not looking to trade salary, but they wheel and deal enough to see that by losing some salary with Castillo, they could add someone else to fill another gap. Maybe even sign a Nick Martinez for under what Castillo makes, now.

[smokedogg1982]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is that what they heard from Jordan directly or what Boras said that Jordan said? 

There was an article about the whole situation around a month ago but I can't remember who published it. 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Even if Duran peaked in 2024 - and he probably did - trading him out of a pure value move is Rays-like... and the Red Sox should not emulate that side of the Rays organization. They don't need to, it's one of their inherent advantages over teams like the Rays, Brewers, et al.

If Duran drops to being a four win player, that's still incredibly valuable and the kind of player you keep around if you want to contend. Go out and buy an ace or trade some prospects, you don't need to dip into the MLB squad.

It's not "Rays-like," if we don't trade him for prospects.

Any Duran trade would be for a top 20-30 SP'er, and we'd fill Duran's slot with Anthony, Campbell of Ref vs LHPs. We'd also, in theory, not spend much money getting this top SP'er and would have more budget space to add Tanner Scott and a top LH'd RP and maybe a better catcher than we normally could afford.

The whole picture MIGHT make it worthy, but that takes a lot of "ifs," and with JH, I'm done "iffing" on spending on anything of real value.

[smokedogg1982]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Opposing hitters thought really highly of his stuff this year. 

Oh yeah he's a broken action figure which means he's right up the Red Sox alley

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not "Rays-like," if we don't trade him for prospects.

Any Duran trade would be for a top 20-30 SP'er, and we'd fill Duran's slot with Anthony, Campbell of Ref vs LHPs. We'd also, in theory, not spend much money getting this top SP'er and would have more budget space to add Tanner Scott and a top LH'd RP and maybe a better catcher than we normally could afford.

The whole picture MIGHT make it worthy, but that takes a lot of "ifs," and with JH, I'm done "iffing" on spending on anything of real value.

The Rays would hold onto Duran for two more years though. Too soon to trade him for the Rays IMO. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think Duran is worth Skubal or Skenes. Duran is probably worth a Tanner Houck equivalent. 

I only brought up Skenes to make the point that anyone could be traded for a better return.

I'm not sure we get Skenes for Duran and Mayer, plus Priester and Dobbins.

Skubal has 2 years, so maybe they'd take Duran & Crawford plus Dobbins.

Playoff teams don't often trade their ace for 3 pieces, though.

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nobody is untouchable, if the return is better and fills a higher need area.

Can't be said enough! 😜

[mvp 78]

Just now, smokedogg1982 said:

Oh yeah he's a broken action figure which means he's right up the Red Sox alley

If the Sox fixed his splitter, he'd go back to being a successful starter. However, Sox need a starter that is better than a reclamation Jordan Montgomery. They already have Giolito. Why have both? 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I only brought up Skenes to make the point that anyone could be traded for a better return.

I'm not sure we get Skenes for Duran and Mayer, plus Priester and Dobbins.

Skubal has 2 years, so maybe they'd take Duran & Crawford plus Dobbins.

Playoff teams don't often trade their ace for 3 pieces, though.

Maybe DET doesn't see itself as a playoff team going forward? Maybe they think the infusion of young talent would help their poor offense (21st ranked wRC+) and extend their window? 

[Bellhorn04]

The available-for-money-only Jack Flaherty looked fairly ace-like last night.

Of course he could be the next Montgomery, too.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't think this is how a team with the resources of the Red Sox should be addressing their needs.   

Only if it would part of a bigger plan to add elsewhere to get us over the top.

Almost every ring we won, involved a blockbuster trade a year or two beforehand. All were top prospects, not a guy like Duran. I get that, but would the alternative of trading Anthony be a better idea? That is the "how a team with the resources of the Red Sox" often "addresses their needs."

I'd be torn between trading one of those two, but we have a solid OF of 4-5 players. We don't get a top pitcher for Abreu or Rafaela.

We have 3 middle infielders, but with Story & Mayer looking so fragile, trading an OF'er seems like the best idea for a blockbuster headliner.

Yes, if JH spends much more than recently, we can cobble together a contender by signing and ace and closer and trading Abreu and DHam for a couple good RP'ers and a back-up catcher, but I'm not counting on that. Also, even if JH did agree to spend on what I just mentioned, I might still want a blockbuster trade to make it overkill.

I think back to 2018, when some said DD "overkilled it," and didn't need to trade as many players as he did or spend as much as he did, and we'd still have won. I'd rather be sure, and plan on injuries or unexpected decline and still have a legit shot at glory.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Only if it would part of a bigger plan to add elsewhere to get us over the top.

Almost every ring we won, involved a blockbuster trade a year or two beforehand. All were top prospects, not a guy like Duran. I get that, but would the alternative of trading Anthony be a better idea?

It seems like Anthony has risen so quickly that he's almost a proven commodity beyond any of those prospects we traded with the possible exception of Hanley.

Personally I think we should just sign a starting pitcher.  

I don't think it's necessary to trade any of the Fab Four.

Plus with the way they've been promoting the kids, and with all their other recent PR gaffes, I'm not sure they're even considering it.  

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, smokedogg1982 said:

I think they move Abreyu myself. If Bres wants to go damaged goods he should definitely call up the diamondbacks about Montgomery. I think he will be better when he gets a spring training instead of signing in April.

Unless we make a blockbuster trade of Anthony (doubtful,) I'd bet on Abreu, the wrong side platoon OF'er, is traded.

Many seem to think he's not worth much, due to not hitting LH'ers well, but he's still young, is a plus defender in a difficult position and has 5 years of pre-arb and arb control. He won't bring back an ace, but he might bring back a solid #3 SP'er (top 45-75 SP'er in MLB) of a real good RP'er- maybe a good RP'er and back-up catcher.

I think we also will trade DHam. His stock might have peaked, and the running game is becoming more valuable, these days. Maybe package DHam with Dobbins or Priester for a better pitcher. Maybe trade him for a decent RPer or a good defensive catcher.

[Bellhorn04]

Guys you would have to consider no-doubt trade material and having some real market value:

Abreu

Hamilton

Grissom

Yoshida (would have to be plus money or talent, obviously)

Prospects not in the Fab Four (Meidroth?)

  

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The available-for-money-only Jack Flaherty looked fairly ace-like last night.

Of course he could be the next Montgomery, too.

Yeah, he's been a roller coaster. He's a 4 seam guy. May be best suited as a team's #2 like Houck? 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It seems like Anthony has risen so quickly that he's almost a proven commodity beyond any of those prospects we traded with the possible exception of Hanley.

Personally I think we should just sign a starting pitcher.  

I don't think it's necessary to trade any of the Fab Four.

Plus with the way they've been promoting the kids, and with all their other recent PR gaffes, I'm not sure they're even considering it.  

I love the idea of keeping the "fab four," and since all are ML ready or just months away from being so, we could start seeing tangible results in 2025. 

However, we can't deny the bottleneck situation in the OF and middle infield. We are not trading Story, even if JH & Co. wanted to. With Story and Mayer's injury history, we probably should not trade Mayer or Campbell (who could also play OF,) but maybe they think between Grissom, DHam, Romy and the two guys they don't trade, we'd be all set at middle IF for years to come. (Arias, Romero, Cespedes and others are in the pipeline, too.) If we don't trade Duran, Anthony or Campbell, that could be our OF, as soon as summer '25, and we could make Rafaela the 4th OF'er and trade Abreu, like almost everyone thinks will be. We could platoon Ref at DH with Yoshida, so that solves that bottleneck, but to get a really good pitcher, it's going to take a headliner like Anthony, Mayer, Campbell or Duran.

Can we do it without a blockbuster? Yes, of course, but now we are back at hoping, wishing or praying for JH to spend way more. I'm sick and tired of that routine. If it happens, it happens, but I'm making suggestions based on it not happening, or only partially does.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Guys you would have to consider no-doubt trade material and having some real market value:

Abreu

Hamilton

Grissom

Yoshida (would have to be plus money or talent, obviously)

Prospects not in the Fab Four (Meidroth?)

  

I don't know how much value Hamilton has. I'd deal him and not think about it for a second. I don't know what trade value Romero, Jhostynxon or Perales have. Those are probably the 3 highest valued in the top 20 outside the big 4 that the Sox would consider trading. I don't think they'd deal Montgomery. Others are too far away to have much value. 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Guys you would have to consider no-doubt trade material and having some real market value:

Abreu

Hamilton

Grissom

Yoshida (would have to be plus money or talent, obviously)

Prospects not in the Fab Four (Meidroth?)

  

I'd add Rafaela and added package players like these, but only if we get a significantly better pitcher in return: Crawford, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins.

I do not think it would be wise to trade Braden Montgomery, but the return would be more than Meidroth's and maybe Arias.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, he's been a roller coaster. He's a 4 seam guy. May be best suited as a team's #2 like Houck? 

There's really nothing wrong with having more than one #2.  #2s might way the way to go, really.  Plus a stronger bullpen, obviously.

[Nick]

No way I would trade 4 years of team control left for Duran in exchange for 1 year of Skubal.

Hell just wait another year make him an offer he can't refuse.

[moonslav59]

We have to give to get.

When you look at our blue chip trade candidates, nobody wants to trade them, including me.

To get what we need, the second and third tier trade chips just won't get it done. That is the reality.

I think we need to identify one player from this group as being the least likely to help us over the next 3-5 years, and get the best return we can for him. (We could add secondary pieces, if needed.)

Anthony, Campbell, Duran, Teel and Mayer (in order of who I'd like to keep most.)

I'd trade Mayer, Abreu and Dobbins for the best pitcher we can get.

We'd still have this core of everyday players and Fitts/Priester as SP'er AAA depth:

C: Wong, __add__, Teel

1B: Casas (Romy/Wong)

2B: Campbell, Grissom-DHam

SS: Story, Romy (Meidroth)

3B: Devers, Grissom/Campbell/Romy (Meidroth)

LF: Duran/Ref

CF: Rafaela/Campbell (Duran)

RF: Anthony/Campbell

DH: Yoshida/Ref (EValdez)

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I love the idea of keeping the "fab four," and since all are ML ready or just months away from being so, we could start seeing tangible results in 2025. 

However, we can't deny the bottleneck situation in the OF and middle infield. We are not trading Story, even if JH & Co. wanted to. With Story and Mayer's injury history, we probably should not trade Mayer or Campbell (who could also play OF,) but maybe they think between Grissom, DHam, Romy and the two guys they don't trade, we'd be all set at middle IF for years to come. (Arias, Romero, Cespedes and others are in the pipeline, too.) If we don't trade Duran, Anthony or Campbell, that could be our OF, as soon as summer '25, and we could make Rafaela the 4th OF'er and trade Abreu, like almost everyone thinks will be. We could platoon Ref at DH with Yoshida, so that solves that bottleneck, but to get a really good pitcher, it's going to take a headliner like Anthony, Mayer, Campbell or Duran.

Can we do it without a blockbuster? Yes, of course, but now we are back at hoping, wishing or praying for JH to spend way more. I'm sick and tired of that routine. If it happens, it happens, but I'm making suggestions based on it not happening, or only partially does.

I just don't see a bottleneck situation in MIF considering all the injury issues and Grissom's production issues. I think it'll work itself out. There is a little bottleneck in the OF, but that could be cleared up if they just made Duran the fulltime CF and made Rafaela a UTIL guy which could make sense if they don't believe his bat will ever get to 700 OPS. Also, not every prospect is able to be a productive MLBer. Also also, too much is made about fungible guys like Romy and Hamilton. You can move on from them really easily. 

They don't have a backup 1B. They don't have a backup 3B. Maybe they use some of these guys to fill that spot somehow. 

Cespedes is most likely not a MIF. He also hasn't even played in Salem yet. How he factors into any conversation right now is confusing for me. Per SoxProspects, Arias isn't expected to reach MLB until 2028. That's quite a long time to figure something out. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There's really nothing wrong with having more than one #2.  #2s might way the way to go, really.  Plus a stronger bullpen, obviously.

Sure, if that's all you can get. I was just saying "best suited" like if you could draw it up in a lab or whatever. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Nick said:

No way I would trade 4 years of team control left for Duran in exchange for 1 year of Skubal.

Hell just wait another year make him an offer he can't refuse.

It's 2 years of Skubal, according to cots.

Skubal makes $8.65M in 2025 (just what JH loves) and has a final arb year in 2026, which could break records, but still be just one year at below FA market value.

[Nick]

22 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It seems like Anthony has risen so quickly that he's almost a proven commodity beyond any of those prospects we traded with the possible exception of Hanley.

Personally I think we should just sign a starting pitcher.  

I don't think it's necessary to trade any of the Fab Four.

Plus with the way they've been promoting the kids, and with all their other recent PR gaffes, I'm not sure they're even considering it.  

I fully agree. Until these young ones are established major leaguers, we really don't know what we have. To say 'plethora' of outfielders in not true as of today. Maybe by mid summer. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I just don't see a bottleneck situation in MIF considering all the injury issues and Grissom's production issues. I think it'll work itself out. There is a little bottleneck in the OF, but that could be cleared up if they just made Duran the fulltime CF and made Rafaela a UTIL guy which could make sense if they don't believe his bat will ever get to 700 OPS. Also, not every prospect is able to be a productive MLBer. Also also, too much is made about fungible guys like Romy and Hamilton. You can move on from them really easily. 

They don't have a backup 1B. They don't have a backup 3B. Maybe they use some of these guys to fill that spot somehow. 

Cespedes is most likely not a MIF. He also hasn't even played in Salem yet. How he factors into any conversation right now is confusing for me. Per SoxProspects, Arias isn't expected to reach MLB until 2028. That's quite a long time to figure something out. 

Of course, the OF is better without a big trade.

LF Abreu v R/Ref v L

CF Duran (maybe Campbell v L with Duran in LF)

RF Anthony

4th Rafaela

But to improve pitching, we have to look at where we are strongest and deepest, and that is clearly the OF.

I share the concern about trading Mayer. If Story gets hurt, I'm not sure Campbell is the defensive replacement Mayer would have been. I am probably more okay with a Grissom-DHam platoon at 2B than others, but that's just me, and it's just in case of injury.