A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's actually Cespedes and Fitts minus Mullins and Sogard from your deal, and surely dumping most of Yoshida's deal is worth something more.

Why do you think we need to give anything for a negative value player? They should give us a prospect to take his full contract.

I don't think they need to dump Yoshida as he still brings some value to the table and will have a 130 wRC+ this year. 

I think we need to give them some mediocre players to take on a guy who just had a 3 WAR season, but is overpaid. That's how most MLB deals work. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think they need to dump Yoshida as he still brings some value to the table and will have a 130 wRC+ this year. 

I think we need to give them some mediocre players to take on a guy who just had a 3 WAR season, but is overpaid. That's how most MLB deals work. 

You, yourself, said he underwater, as is Yoshida.

You'd be okay signing Arenado to $75M/3, if he was a  FA?

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You, yourself, said he underwater, as is Yoshida.

You'd be okay signing Arenado to $75M/3, if he was a  FA?

His contract is underwater, but that doesn't mean your proposed trade is going to happen. 

I'm projecting his production to fall to 2 WAR. ZiPS has him at 3 for this year. That's an 8M difference in valuation. STL isn't just going to dump him and give a player so that you can take him. He still has some value. At 25M AAV, it's about a wash if he's going to be a 3 WAR player. 

Personally, I would give him a 3/48 deal if he was a FA. 

[moonslav59]

To STL: Yoshida, Story, Wong, Guerrero, Fitts or Sandlin & Cespedes or Bleis

To BOS: Contreras, Helsley, Arenado 

No cash either direction.

Story is owed $77.5M/3 ($23.3 CBT x 3), Yoshida is owed $18.6M x 3 ($18M CBT x 3)

Contreras is owed $18M x 3 ($17.5 CBT) Arenado is owed $64M/3 ($25M x 2, $15M x 1 CBT) & Helsley $8.2M x 1

 

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

To STL: Yoshida, Story, Wong, Guerrero, Fitts or Sandlin & Cespedes or Bleis

To BOS: Contreras, Helsley, Arenado 

No cash either direction.

Story is owed $77.5M/3 ($23.3 CBT x 3), Yoshida is owed $18.6M x 3 ($18M CBT x 3)

Contreras is owed $18M x 3 ($17.5 CBT) Arenado is owed $64M/3 ($25M x 2, $15M x 1 CBT) & Helsley $8.2M x 1

Cards are trying to DUMP salary. They have no interest in taking on Story's salary or lateral moves. 

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His contract is underwater, but that doesn't mean your proposed trade is going to happen. 

I'm projecting his production to fall to 2 WAR. ZiPS has him at 3 for this year. That's an 8M difference in valuation. STL isn't just going to dump him and give a player so that you can take him. He still has some value. At 25M AAV, it's about a wash if he's going to be a 3 WAR player. 

Personally, I would give him a 3/48 deal if he was a FA. 

Do you see him having an OPS+ over 99 for the next 3 years combined?

I'm thinking $30M/3 tops. I'd offer $7-8M x 3.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Cards are trying to DUMP salary. They have no interest in taking on Story's salary or lateral moves. 

They would be dumping salary. Do the math. Contreras, Arenado + Helsley is more money that Story+ Yoshida.

Maybe it's not saving enough for them, and they give up a nice catcher and 1 year of a really good closer, but they ain't winning, this year w Helsley.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Do you see him having an OPS+ over 99 for the next 3 years combined?

I'm thinking $30M/3 tops. I'd offer $7-8M x 3.

With how his defense is, he'd be a 2 win player with an OPS+ around 90 IMO. JBJ was 2-3 WAR when his OPS+ floated around 90.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Personally, I would give him a 3/48 deal if he was a FA. 

I don't get it.

You say he's worth $48M/3 but would give Mullins and Sogard for him at $60M+/3.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't get it.

You say he's worth $48M/3 but would give Mullins and Sogard for him at $60M+/3.

He's not a FA today. You need to get him from another team. It's two different scenarios. I'm not happy about paying his current deal, but it's not onerous. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

To STL: Yoshida, Story, Wong, Guerrero, Fitts or Sandlin & Cespedes or Bleis

To BOS: Contreras, Helsley, Arenado 

No cash either direction.

Story is owed $77.5M/3 ($23.3 CBT x 3), Yoshida is owed $18.6M x 3 ($18M CBT x 3)

Contreras is owed $18M x 3 ($17.5 CBT) Arenado is owed $64M/3 ($25M x 2, $15M x 1 CBT) & Helsley $8.2M x 1

 

Arenado blocks the trade if Story goes the other way…

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's not a FA today. You need to get him from another team. It's two different scenarios. I'm not happy about paying his current deal, but it's not onerous. 

We could get/could have gotten a better FA for less than he is owed.

The concept is relatable.

I still think, if STL pays down zero, they need to give a prospect- not expect one.

He has negative trade value.

I would not expect to get anything for Yoshida, and would give some money for nothing back. I'd give Yoshida, Mullins and Sogard for nothing at all.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Arenado blocks the trade if Story goes the other way…

Funny.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Funny.

His buddy, Contreras, comes with him!

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Arenado blocks the trade if Story goes the other way…

 

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

His buddy, Contreras, comes with him!

 

In their prime, Arenado and Story were one of the best infields I've ever seen from the left side.  2016-2020

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

In their prime, Arenado and Story were one of the best infields I've ever seen from the left side.  2016-2020

It would be nice to see plus-plus leftside D in 2025.

It's the cost that bothers me.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

They would be dumping salary. Do the math. Contreras, Arenado + Helsley is more money that Story+ Yoshida.

Maybe it's not saving enough for them, and they give up a nice catcher and 1 year of a really good closer, but they ain't winning, this year w Helsley.

They’re saving money, but now they have multiple shortstops and no corner infielders or closer.  They might have to spend a chunk of their savings rectifying that situation…

[notin]

58 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

His buddy, Contreras, comes with him!

 

Nobody likes Willson Contreras.  Not even William…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Nobody likes Willson Contreras.  Not even William…

Tell that to the I Love Venezuela Foundation.

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, notin said:

They’re saving money, but now they have multiple shortstops and no corner infielders or closer.  They might have to spend a chunk of their savings rectifying that situation…

No, they are just going to give a 3 fWAR guy over for free, pay part of his salary AND provide a prospect according to moon! 

[Hugh2]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It would be nice to see plus-plus leftside D in 2025.

It's the cost that bothers me.

BTV accepts this trade. 

Boston Gets:

Nolan Arenado and $19 million cash.

Seattle gets:

Nazzan Zanetello

Blaze Jordan

[Hugh2]

Sox would effectively have Arenado on the books for 3 years 19 million per for giving up their 27th and 33rd ranked prospects. 

I don't completely hate it, what I don't like is the $19 million on the books for the cost conscious Sox.  But if Arenado was healthy and could even just be a 3 WAR player, play good D and push Devers to DH it would be worth it. 

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Sox would effectively have Arenado on the books for 3 years 19 million per for giving up their 27th and 33rd ranked prospects. 

I don't completely hate it, what I don't like is the $19 million on the books for the cost conscious Sox.  But if Arenado was healthy and could even just be a 3 WAR player, play good D and push Devers to DH it would be worth it. 

If it pushes Devers to DH, it also pushes Yoshida and his 18 million AAV...somewhere.   

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If it pushes Devers to DH, it also pushes Yoshida and his 18 million AAV...somewhere.   

True, and there's a broader debate to be had after this statement but....Is Yoshida a lock for DH? like....do we look at Yoshida and say, oh wow there's a guy who has to DH on our team because he's so good. 

Not trying to water down the roster problem he creates if he's not DHing, I acknowledge it, but I also don't think we should prevent ourselves from getting better because of it.  Not that Arenado would make us better, I have my reservations about him. 

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

BTV accepts this trade. 

Boston Gets:

Nolan Arenado and $19 million cash.

Seattle gets:

Nazzan Zanetello

Blaze Jordan

Excuse me. Where is the Cardinals prospect that they are supposed to be giving us?!?!?!?! And the Sox have to give up a high draft pick from a few years ago? WTH?!?!?!?

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

True, and there's a broader debate to be had after this statement but....Is Yoshida a lock for DH? like....do we look at Yoshida and say, oh wow there's a guy who has to DH on our team because he's so good. 

Not trying to water down the roster problem he creates if he's not DHing, I acknowledge it, but I also don't think we should prevent ourselves from getting better because of it.  Not that Arenado would make us better, I have my reservations about him. 

If only Breslow could work out a deal with St Louis that involves them taking Yoshida.  Quite possible that's what he's been trying to do and it's been holding up the deal.  

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Sox would effectively have Arenado on the books for 3 years 19 million per for giving up their 27th and 33rd ranked prospects. 

I don't completely hate it, what I don't like is the $19 million on the books for the cost conscious Sox.  But if Arenado was healthy and could even just be a 3 WAR player, play good D and push Devers to DH it would be worth it. 

If he's a 3 WAR guy, they should just take the whole contract and not give up anything of value if they can. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

If only Breslow could work out a deal with St Louis that involves them taking Yoshida.  Quite possible that's what he's been trying to do and it's been holding up the deal.  

C'mon. STL wants to drop salary, not take on more. Please join us in the real world. 

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If only Breslow could work out a deal with St Louis that involves them taking Yoshida.  Quite possible that's what he's been trying to do and it's been holding up the deal.  

Ideally you want guys on your bench who can play multiple positions, with someone who can play around the infield, someone who can play around the outfield, someone who can play the corners (1B) and your second catcher.  And within that group you want a guy or two who can pinch run, and steal some bases. 

I suppose they could give Yoshida a 1B mit and say hey, you're our bench 1B/LF/DH/pinch hitter.  But that still is stealing away some roster flexibility and sitting a guy 1/2 the time who is making who is making $18 million a year.

But in an ideal world, I completely agree with you.  I'd love the Yoshida for Arenado swap.  It would be perfect for us, but it might not fit what St. Louis is looking for.  Because they want to shed salary. 

I think it's also worth mentioning that me speculating what an Arenado trade may look like is not necessarily an endorsement for bringing him here.  I'm just conversing over what is seemingly the chance of it happening. 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

If he's a 3 WAR guy, they should just take the whole contract and not give up anything of value if they can. 

Are Zanetello and Jordan really that valuable? You have to give someone up