A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

We could go over the tax line by signing Bregman & Scott and trade Mayer for Sean Murphy to become AL faves.

1. L Duran CF

2. R Bregman 3B

3. L Casas DH/1B

4. L Devers 3B/1B

5. R Murphy C

6. L Yoshida/R Refnsyder LF

7. R Campbell 2B

8. L Abreu/ R Rafaela RF

9. R Story SS

Bench: Wong. DHam, Rafaela or Abreu and Ref or Yoshida

SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler, Giolito, Crawford

RP: Scott, Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Wilson, Guerrero

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We could go over the tax line by signing Bregman & Scott and trade Mayer for Sean Murphy to become AL faves.

1. L Duran CF

2. R Bregman 3B

3. L Casas DH/1B

4. L Devers 3B/1B

5. R Murphy C

6. L Yoshida/R Refnsyder LF

7. R Campbell 2B

8. L Abreu/ R Rafaela RF

9. R Story SS

Bench: Wong. DHam, Rafaela or Abreu and Ref or Yoshida

SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler, Giolito, Crawford

RP: Scott, Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Wilson, Guerrero

I'd argue just signing Scott and Bregman would make us A.L. Favorites.  I mean maybe not because of our record last year.  But there's NO elite teams in the A.L. NYY literally went from a .500 team to a world series contender in one year by just adding Soto.  With a relatively clean bill of health, youth improvement and the moves we made we have the talent to make that kind of jump. 

I'd be more worried about younger players in Baltimore having bounce back seasons or the talented Texas roster bouncing back before the Yankees this year.  Who will still be dangerous.  

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'd argue just signing Scott and Bregman would make us A.L. Favorites.  I mean maybe not because of our record last year.  But there's NO elite teams in the A.L. NYY literally went from a .500 team to a world series contender in one year by just adding Soto.  With a relatively clean bill of health, youth improvement and the moves we made we have the talent to make that kind of jump. 

I'd be more worried about younger players in Baltimore having bounce back seasons or the talented Texas roster bouncing back before the Yankees this year.  Who will still be dangerous.  

Favorites to get a WC? Sure. 

[notin]

Welcome abound, Sean Newcomb.

 

As Breslow continues to try to corner the market on left-handed pitching…

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Favorites to get a WC? Sure. 

Of all the teams ahead of us in 2024, who got better?

[Hugh2]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Favorites to get a WC? Sure. 

I get not being the favorites, but is anyone really a lock to dominate the A.L. East?

[notin]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I get not being the favorites, but is anyone really a lock to dominate the A.L. East?

The Yankees did lose Soto, but added Fried.  Did the Sox additions bridge the 19 game gap between the two teams?

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I get not being the favorites, but is anyone really a lock to dominate the A.L. East?

The Yankees were in the WS last season and lost Soto, but got Fried, Goldschmidt, Bellinger, Devin Williams, Pablo Reyes and Colten Brewer. Unless there's an injury to Fried, there shouldn't be much of a falloff as that rotation is very good and much better than the Sox. 

Yanks: 48.8 fWAR

Sox: 41.3 + 4.1 (Bregman) + 1.0 (Scott) = 46.4 fWAR still behind the Yanks

[moonslav59]

Sox-Duran agree on $3.75M.

[Hugh2]

42 minutes ago, notin said:

The Yankees did lose Soto, but added Fried.  Did the Sox additions bridge the 19 game gap between the two teams?

It's not just about additions.  You have guys getting healthy again AND a lot of young core talent coming up and coming into 2nd and 3rd years.  That has to factor in on top of just their free agent signings. 

The Yankees literally went from an 82 win team to a 94 win team by adding one really good player. 

Yeah they lost SOto and added Fried so what? they're still very weak and aging in many other areas.

Do you think Paul Goldshmidt is going to hurt us?

[Bellhorn04]

46 minutes ago, notin said:

The Yankees did lose Soto, but added Fried.  Did the Sox additions bridge the 19 game gap between the two teams?

Actually a 13 game gap (94-81) but the point stands.  

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Actually a 13 game gap (94-81) but the point stands.  

The Yankees went from 82-94 wins in one season by adding Soto. 

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, notin said:

The Yankees did lose Soto, but added Fried.  Did the Sox additions bridge the 19 game gap between the two teams?

The Yanks lost Soto, Torres, Verdugo, Holmes, Cortes, Trevino, Kahnle and a couple others. They added Fried, Devin Williams, Bellinger, Goldschmidt & Alex Jackson/Fernando Cruz. I'd say this is not an improvement, overall.

The O's lost Burnes, Santander, E Jimenez, Slater, J Webb and a couple others. They added Tyler O'Neill, Charlie Morton, Kittredge, Sugano & G Sanchez. I'm not seeing a gain, here.

The Astros lost Tucker, Bregman, Kikuchi, Verlander, Neris and a few others and added Paredes, Walker and Wesneski. Clearly a losing offseason.

The M's lost Polanco, Turner, Y Garcia, J Rojas and a few others and added 2 guys: S Solano & Mastrobuoni. Hard not to see a drop off, here.

The Guardians Lost Naylor, Cobb, Boyd, Gimenez and others and added Santana, Hedges and Luis Ortiz. Not seeing a gain.

The Royals lost Singer, DeJong, Frazier, Grossman, Gurriel, Pham, Will Smith and added J India, lorenzen & Wiemer.

The Tigers got better: they lost nobody and added G Torres and Cobb.

The Twins have added nothing and lost 6-7 players- nothing great.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

It's not just about additions.  You have guys getting healthy again AND a lot of young core talent coming up and coming into 2nd and 3rd years.  That has to factor in on top of just their free agent signings.

The 'getting healthy again' thing is kind of shaky, though.  We don't really know if Devers, Story, Casas, Yoshida or Giolito will be fully healthy after the injuries they had last year.  And while I liked the Buehler signing, there's good reason to be concerned about his health too.  

Point is the health thing could go sideways on us all over again.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The Yankees went from 82-94 wins in one season by adding Soto. 

But they also won 99 games in 2022 without him.  It's not like they've been maestros of mediocrity the last 3 years like our Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

Devers's shoulder issues were diagnosed as inflammation and as far as I can tell the only treatment was rest.

But the issues were bad enough to reduce him to a feeble hitter before they finally shut him down.

I'm not totally comfortable about all this...

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But they also won 99 games in 2022 without him.  It's not like they've been maestros of mediocrity the last 3 years like our Sox.

Yes, Judge went from 4.5 bWAR in an injury shortened 2023 to 10.8 in 2024. It wasn't all because of Soto and hand nothing to do with Verdugo. In 2023, Cole was the only starting pitcher above 1 bWAR. It was just a rough year for them. 

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Devers's shoulder issues were diagnosed as inflammation and as far as I can tell the only treatment was rest.

But the issues were bad enough to reduce him to a feeble hitter before they finally shut him down.

I'm not totally comfortable about all this...

They added Crochet and still haven't replaced their closer or RHB. Doesn't that make them clear favorites in the division?!?!?!

[notin]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They added Crochet and still haven't replaced their closer or RHB. Doesn't that make them clear favorites in the division?!?!?!

I am pretty sure they think of Liam Hendriks as their closer, with Slaten or Chapman as Plan B…

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The 'getting healthy again' thing is kind of shaky, though.  We don't really know if Devers, Story, Casas, Yoshida or Giolito will be fully healthy after the injuries they had last year.  And while I liked the Buehler signing, there's good reason to be concerned about his health too.  

Point is the health thing could go sideways on us all over again.

I don't disagree, but this is true for every other team in baseball. 

It's also just a piece of the puzzle, guys coming back in 2025 aside, you still have the youth movement that should all be poised to take steps forward. 

My point continues to be, the Sox have the pieces on the board to take a step forward, there's no one who really looks like they're going to dominate the A.L. 

THe league is very winnable, and I'd be very excited if the Sox signed "bregman and scott"

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But they also won 99 games in 2022 without him.  It's not like they've been maestros of mediocrity the last 3 years like our Sox.

They had a much better Catcher, Anthony Rizzo, a MUCH better Gleyber Torres, a better 3B, a much better DJ LeMahieu

A lot of those guys who were better in 2022 are just guys getting older (many of whom are still with them). 

If anything this outlines how much variations can happen, Sox went from 2 games within a world series to last place from 2021-2022 with very little roster change. 

This Yankees team is even older now, and the Sox are younger WITH added talent. 

I'm not running to Vegas and betting on them going to the world series, but I suppose you can say my cup ISN'T half empty. 

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Welcome abound, Sean Newcomb.

 

As Breslow continues to try to corner the market on left-handed pitching…

He will be a nice addition in Worcester. 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The 'getting healthy again' thing is kind of shaky, though.  We don't really know if Devers, Story, Casas, Yoshida or Giolito will be fully healthy after the injuries they had last year.  And while I liked the Buehler signing, there's good reason to be concerned about his health too.  

Point is the health thing could go sideways on us all over again.

Indeed, it could. (Add Whitlock and hendriks and maybe more to your list.)

The thing is, we probably don't need all of the returning players to do well or even play many more games: we just need a few and no major injuries to someone else.

Players who did not play one game in 2024 for the Sox: Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, Sandoval, Hendriks, Chapman, Narvaez/Sabol/Zavala, Wilson, Fulmer and J Moran. 

Players who missed a lot of time in 2024 with an injury: Whitlock (25+ GS,)  (Story (120+ gms) & Casas (90+ gms) Plus Chris Murphy & Mata.

Players who missed some time and or played hurt for a significant amount of time: Devers, Yoshida, Slaten, Refsnyder & I Campbell.

Players who were AAA or prospects in 2024, and could see more time in the bigs, if needed, in 2025: Criswell, Weissert, Fitts, Priester, Guerrero, Penrod, DHam, Romy, Grissom and others.

Prospects who could get "the call" in 2025: Campbell, Anthony, Mayer & Dobbins

These lists are so long, that we could withstand substantial injuries and still be okay, as longs as they are not all at once, or all at SS or one key position.

The list of healthy 2024 players returning is short: Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Wong, Houck, Crawford & Bello. I can't imagine the list of 2025 healthy players being shorter than this.

 

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

I am pretty sure they think of Liam Hendriks as their closer, with Slaten or Chapman as Plan B…

Seems like a very shaky plan to me. 

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't disagree, but this is true for every other team in baseball. 

It's also just a piece of the puzzle, guys coming back in 2025 aside, you still have the youth movement that should all be poised to take steps forward. 

My point continues to be, the Sox have the pieces on the board to take a step forward, there's no one who really looks like they're going to dominate the A.L. 

THe league is very winnable, and I'd be very excited if the Sox signed "bregman and scott"

They have the pieces to step forward, but I don't think it's necessarily a step forward by 15 games even if they add more at this point. 

[moonslav59]

Another difference I see for 2025 than 2024, is that I do not think we will be forced to go outside the system to plus in holes in the pitching staff. This does not mean the pitchers we use in our system will do better than last year's imports, but it should be more seamless.

2024 imports: Joe Jacques, Bailey Horn, Trey Wingenter, James Paxton, Yohan Ramirez, Quinn Priester, Luis Garcia, Lucas Sims, Brad Keller, Rich Hill

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Seems like a very shaky plan to me. 

I agree. Add a lock down closer and these guys look like a nice set-up group: Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten & Whitlock.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Another difference I see for 2025 than 2024, is that I do not think we will be forced to go outside the system to plus in holes in the pitching staff. This does not mean the pitchers we use in our system will do better than last year's imports, but it should be more seamless.

2024 imports: Joe Jacques, Bailey Horn, Trey Wingenter, James Paxton, Yohan Ramirez, Quinn Priester, Luis Garcia, Lucas Sims, Brad Keller, Rich Hill

They will most certainly churn the 40 man roster for bullpen arms this season. You can set your watch to it. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree. Add a lock down closer and these guys look like a nice set-up group: Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten & Whitlock.

If Chapman is pitching the seventh? Great.

If Chapman is pitching the eighth? Ok. 

If Chapman is pitching the ninth? Change the channel. 

[Bellhorn04]

46 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't disagree, but this is true for every other team in baseball. 

Is it?  The virtual heart of our offense, Devers, Casas and Story, all had severe injuries last year.

It's Devers I'm really worried about.  Our offense was pathetic from mid-August on, which coincided with Raffy's offensive disappearance.  The inflammation must have been pretty awful to do what it did to him as a hitter.