A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[harmony]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Garver is a salary dump. They'd hand him away for no return.

Castillo is aging and showing signs of decline. His value has risen and FA costs for similar pitchers are coming in above expectations.. They need a 3Bman and middle IF'er, badly. They'd get Arenado & Mayer, along with Fitts. The money is close to even, especially if we add $5M a year to the offer. (COL is already paying $5M a year for Arenado.)

We may have to improve the offer, and I'm sure harmony would dislike the offer.

I'm not sure STL likes the offer either. I was working off the framework of an offer suggested in some article. Adding Yoshida to the deal could break any deal, even with a chink of money included or by taking away Arenado's larger contract. Helsley is real good, but he has just 1 year of control. If STL is looking to rebuild, trading Arenado and Helsley makes a ton of sense. I'm not sure if they like Cespedes and Arias. Maybe they like Bleis, JH Garcia or Romero. Maybe they insist on Mayer or Teel.

Maybe this would be more to the liking of SEA & STL:

TO BOS: Castillo, Helsley, Garver

TO SEA: Arenado (+$5M/yr from BOS), Mayer, Meidroth, Fitts

TO STL: Yoshida (+5M/yr from BOS), Arias, Priester, Cespedes

(Maybe Abreu can be worked into the deal and subtract a prospect or two.)

Interesting trade proposals, especially in the remote event the Seattle Mariners sign right-hander Roki Sasaki.

Nolan Arenado could be a great mentor for Marcelo Mayer, a fellow California native drafted out of high school.

Arenado would need to waive his no-trade clause to move to Seattle's harsh hitting environment. Would Luis Castillo waive his no-trade clause to join a less-relevant Red sox club?

The Mariners would need to scour the scarce market for a second catcher as touted prospect Harry Ford is unlikely to be called up for a backup role.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Mayer, Arias and Cespedes are three good shortstop prospects, though the latter may move to another position. Sure, we have a lot of middle infield depth that we can deal, but I have to keep one of the best -- either Mayer or Arias (just so we don't have to overpay again for the next Trevor Story).

Maybe the front office has identified Mikey Romero as the core SS for the next decade? It's not like the Sox can count on Story as a rock of stability... he may be gritty, but like loose shale on a narrow mountain path.

Good point: maybe sub Bleis or Perales for one of the SSs. I'd hesitate to trade Montgomery.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, harmony said:

Interesting trade proposals, especially in the remote event the Seattle Mariners sign right-hander Roki Sasaki.

Nolan Arenado could be a great mentor for Marcelo Mayer, a fellow California native drafted out of high school.

Arenado would need to waive his no-trade clause to move to Seattle's harsh hitting environment. The Mariners would need to scour the scarce market for a second catcher as touted prospect Harry Ford is unlikely to be called up for a backup role.

Wow, you did not dismiss this trade, out of hand. I think, a first.

🙃

 

[Larry Cook]

My offseason wishlist was 

1.) trade yoshida. (Still not done) 

2.) acquire two top of the rotation starting pitchers. (Still not done.) 

3.) sign two relievers preferably 1 lefty. (This is complete.) 

4.) Sign a right handed batting backup catcher. (Still not done.) 

I feel like we are in a good position entering the winter meetings to complete my list. 

 

[moonslav59]

Roki Sasaki will be posted soon. He's only 23 and will be all next season.

He did pitch 129 IP at age 20 and 111, this year. He has 2.02 career ERA, which dipped to 2.35 in 2024. His WHIP is a mind-blowing 0.883 and was about 0.770 from 2022-2023. It also dipped, this year (1.036)

His career 4.03 K:BB rate is very nice.

In 2024, he had a 10.5 K/9 rate and 2.6 BB/9 rate, both worse than 2022 and 2023, but still very nice.

This could be a major signing that addresses the here and now, as well as the extended future.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

My offseason wishlist was 

1.) trade yoshida. (Still not done) 

2.) acquire two top of the rotation starting pitchers. (Still not done.) 

3.) sign two relievers preferably 1 lefty. (This is complete.) 

4.) Sign a right handed batting backup catcher. (Still not done.) 

I feel like we are in a good position entering the winter meetings to complete my list. 

 

I would not count Wilson as a RP'er signing. He's one step ahead of being a minor league depth signing.

Our pen was awful over the second half of 2024. Adding Chapman, Hendriks and Wilson does not even equal the loss of Jansen and Martin, IMO.

Adding 2 SP'ers would push Crawford to the pen, and I guess we could count Whitlock as a pen addition, too, but someone will get hurt.

I'm not sure Scott is still in play, for us, as Chapman and Wilson are both lefties, but I think I'd rather have Fried and Scott than Fried and Nate. Scott will be cheaper, too, and maybe the savings can go towards another pen arm or upgrading what we can spend on a RHB and or catcher.

Who is your back-up or starting catcher? Wong & Gasper?

[Larry Cook]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I would not count Wilson as a RP'er signing. He's one step ahead of being a minor league depth signing.

Our pen was awful over the second half of 2024. Adding Chapman, Hendriks and Wilson does not even equal the loss of Jansen and Martin, IMO.

Adding 2 SP'ers would push Crawford to the pen, and I guess we could count Whitlock as a pen addition, too, but someone will get hurt.

I'm not sure Scott is still in play, for us, as Chapman and Wilson are both lefties, but I think I'd rather have Fried and Scott than Fried and Nate. Scott will be cheaper, too, and maybe the savings can go towards another pen arm or upgrading what we can spend on a RHB and or catcher.

Who is your back-up or starting catcher? Wong & Gasper?

We have to sign one of the older guys to a 1 year deal because teel is coming fast! 
if we trade cassas, wong could get more time at first base and allow us to sign Carson Kelly!! 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

We have to sign one of the older guys to a 1 year deal because teel is coming fast! 
if we trade cassas, wong could get more time at first base and allow us to sign Carson Kelly!! 

I'm liking Casas, more and more, despite the injury issues and awful defense. I'd like to see him DH 80% and play 1B 20%. Devers 1B 80% and DH 20%. By DH'ing so much, he may need less days off.  This ould mean trading Yoshida or play him in LF (no Soto) or bench him.

I'm all for Carson Kelly on a 1 year deal.

Casas is one of the few lefty hitters we have that hits lefties well.

Career vs R/L OPS

.846/.772 Casas

.910/.739 Devers

.831/.632 Duran (.910/,665 in '24)

.842/.514 Abreu

.695/.539 DHam (.729/.532 in '24)

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/6/2024 at 9:12 AM, notin said:

Jeffries?  Get a catcher who can play catcher.  Not one that makes Connor Wong look like Yadira Molina.

 

Christian Vazquez makes more sense if you want a former Twin.  Or just sign Danny Jansen, Carson Kelly or Elias Diaz…

Jansen has gone to the Rays.  i guess they could afford him.

[Randy Red Sox]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm liking Casas, more and more, despite the injury issues and awful defense. I'd like to see him DH 80% and play 1B 20%. Devers 1B 80% and DH 20%. By DH'ing so much, he may need less days off.  This ould mean trading Yoshida or play him in LF (no Soto) or bench him.

I'm all for Carson Kelly on a 1 year deal.

Casas is one of the few lefty hitters we have that hits lefties well.

Career vs R/L OPS

.846/.772 Casas

.910/.739 Devers

.831/.632 Duran (.910/,665 in '24)

.842/.514 Abreu

.695/.539 DHam (.729/.532 in '24)

i don't think the Sox should be trading Casas.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i don't think the Sox should be trading Casas.

I think it really comes down to trading Yoshida, at whatever loss it comes to, but we probably should wait until he is healthy, and hopefully is showing he can hit near .800 for a while. That might mean he starts the season on the non 60 day IL and then plays for 3-4 weeks + before we trade him.

I've looked long and hard for a trade partner, this winter. The best hopes might be for Arenado, assuming STL takes his contract. We'd have to include some nice prospects, but not a top 4 or even 5. Maybe Arias or Cespedes & Bleis. 

Would you give Cespedes, Bleis & Yoshida for Arenado with no money involved?

Arenado is owed $69M/3 with $10M paid by COL, so $59M /3 (22, 22 & 15)

Yoshida is owed $54M/3- almost the exact same as Arenado.

The tax number is:

Yoshida: 18-18-18

Arenado: 26.5, 26.5, 30.5 (The difference here is notable to the Sox, esp 2027)

 

Our D would be greatly improved, but we'd be taking on a declining 3Bman. He will be 34 to start 2025 and 36 his last year. He had an OPS+ of 125 from ages 23-30. It was 151 in 2022 at age 31, but then 108 in 2023 and 101, this year.

Shocker: although he is a RHB with power, he his .646 vs LHPs in 2024. This was not a fluke, as he hit .665 v LHPs in 2023.

Defense 2023-2024

DRS +7 Arenado vs -18 Devers

OAA +15 Arenado vs -14 Devers

Last 5 years:

DRS +45 vs -41

OAA +44 vs -33

[moonslav59]

Olney reported on X ...

...the Cardinals will probably have to cover some of Arenado’s salary or take back another unfavorable contract as a salary offset....It isn’t known whether or not the Cardinals would be open to eating money or taking an unwanted contract back, which could be a further obstacle towards a trade being completed. 

[moonslav59]

If the Cards decide to go full reload, maybe a blockbuster could be made.

To BOS:

Sonny Gray  $25M, $35M,  $30M or $5M buyout  ($25M AAV) $65M/2 or $90M/3

Arenado: $27M, $22M, $15M (AAV $25.6M x 2 and $30.6M in '27) counting $5M COL payment in 2025 and 2026.

Helsley: $7M last arb

Total Money: $49M in '25, $47M in '26, $20M in '27 (no Gray) AAV ($58M, $51M, $15M)

To STL:

Yoshida: $56M/ 3 (AAV $18M x 3)

Crawford, Abreu, Cespedes and Fitts (Maybe we need to sub Mayer for someone.)

The net cost to the Sox for a SP, 3Bman and Closer would be:

$31M in '25, $29M in '26 and $2M in '27

AAV: $40M in '25, $33M in '26 and +$3M in '27

[Jasonbay44]

Not sure how real the interest the Sox had in him was, but another big name off the board.

 

Willy Adames to Giants. 7 years $182 million.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Jasonbay44 said:

Not sure how real the interest the Sox had in him was, but another big name off the board.

 

Willy Adames to Giants. 7 years $182 million.

I saw Adames as a possible plan B for missing out on Soto (Devers to 1B/DH.) 

At that money, he's not the inpact guy Soto would be, so using the money for pitching makes more sense.

Does this mean Bregman gets $200M/7? (HOU offered him $156M/6.)

[moonslav59]

Signed FAs: (ranked by MLBTR)

4. Snell $182M/5

5. Adames $182M/7

12. Kikuchi $63M/3

15. Severino $67M/3

21. Holmes $38M/3

23. Boyd $29M/2

27. Montas $34M/2

30. D Jansen $8.5M/1

36. Higgy $13.5M/2

44. Bieber $26M/2

d"Arnaud $12M/1

Chapman $10.75M/1

 

Remaining:

1. Soto

2. Burnes

3. Bregman

6. Fried

NR Roki Sasaki

7 Alonso, 8 Flaherty, 9 Santander, 10 Manaea, 11 Teoscar

13 Walker, 14 Scott, 16 Profar, 17 Eovaldi, 18 Hoffman, 19 O'Neall

20 Torres, 22 Estevez 24 Pederson, 25 Heaney, 26 H Kim, 28 Pivetta

31 Quintana, 32 Conforto, 33 Scherzer, 34 Minter, 35 Goldschmidt

37 Buehler, 38 Yates, 39 Soroka, 40, Kittredge, 41 Gibson, 42 Kahlne

43 H-S Kim, 45 Verlander, 46. Sugano, 47 Robertson, 48 Ogasawara

49 Bader, 50 Turnbull, NR K Jansen, C Martin, C Morton, C Kelly

[Jasonbay44]

Tyler Oneill to Orioles. 3 years $49.5 million. Opt out after first season 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Jasonbay44 said:

Tyler Oneill to Orioles. 3 years $49.5 million. Opt out after first season 

That's a lot of money.

[Larry Cook]

Bres-slow needs to focus on signing fried!!! Go big or go home empty handed!!

Then work a trade for another top of the rotation starter 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Bres-slow needs to focus on signing fried!!! Go big or go home empty handed!!

Then work a trade for another top of the rotation starter 

If the $730M off to Soto is correct, we need to move on.

We are NOT going to get Burnes and Fried, and I kinda think Scott is not a choice, so I'm not seeing a big second guy.

Fried, Estevez, Carson Kelly and Bregman? (Trade Yoshida and Casas/Devers at DH/1B)

Fried and Scott + Carson Kelly

Fried, Flaherty or Nate, Estevez and Kelly?

Trade Abreu and DHam for a RHB.

[Jasonbay44]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

That's a lot of money.

Yeah, I’m not really mad about that one. 

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Jasonbay44 said:

Yeah, I’m not really mad about that one. 

Nobody should be.

[Thunder]

All I will say is that I'm not sure I want to live in a world where Mickey Gaspar is our backup catcher

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Thunder said:

All I will say is that I'm not sure I want to live in a world where Mickey Gaspar is our backup catcher

Carson Kelly should be affordable, especially if our $690M Soto offer is turned down.

[Randy Red Sox]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think it really comes down to trading Yoshida, at whatever loss it comes to, but we probably should wait until he is healthy, and hopefully is showing he can hit near .800 for a while. That might mean he starts the season on the non 60 day IL and then plays for 3-4 weeks + before we trade him.

I've looked long and hard for a trade partner, this winter. The best hopes might be for Arenado, assuming STL takes his contract. We'd have to include some nice prospects, but not a top 4 or even 5. Maybe Arias or Cespedes & Bleis. 

Would you give Cespedes, Bleis & Yoshida for Arenado with no money involved?

Arenado is owed $69M/3 with $10M paid by COL, so $59M /3 (22, 22 & 15)

Yoshida is owed $54M/3- almost the exact same as Arenado.

The tax number is:

Yoshida: 18-18-18

Arenado: 26.5, 26.5, 30.5 (The difference here is notable to the Sox, esp 2027)

 

Our D would be greatly improved, but we'd be taking on a declining 3Bman. He will be 34 to start 2025 and 36 his last year. He had an OPS+ of 125 from ages 23-30. It was 151 in 2022 at age 31, but then 108 in 2023 and 101, this year.

Shocker: although he is a RHB with power, he his .646 vs LHPs in 2024. This was not a fluke, as he hit .665 v LHPs in 2023.

Defense 2023-2024

DRS +7 Arenado vs -18 Devers

OAA +15 Arenado vs -14 Devers

Last 5 years:

DRS +45 vs -41

OAA +44 vs -33

i have no interest in a 34 yr old 3B especially at that cost

[Randy Red Sox]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I saw Adames as a possible plan B for missing out on Soto (Devers to 1B/DH.) 

At that money, he's not the inpact guy Soto would be, so using the money for pitching makes more sense.

Does this mean Bregman gets $200M/7? (HOU offered him $156M/6.)

Adames gone now too.  Sox are well on the way to striking out again in 2024 offseason

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i have no interest in a 34 yr old 3B especially at that cost

He's 32.

[Randy Red Sox]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Signed FAs: (ranked by MLBTR)

4. Snell $182M/5

5. Adames $182M/7

12. Kikuchi $63M/3

15. Severino $67M/3

21. Holmes $38M/3

23. Boyd $29M/2

27. Montas $34M/2

30. D Jansen $8.5M/1

36. Higgy $13.5M/2

44. Bieber $26M/2

d"Arnaud $12M/1

Chapman $10.75M/1

 

Remaining:

1. Soto

2. Burnes

3. Bregman

6. Fried

NR Roki Sasaki

7 Alonso, 8 Flaherty, 9 Santander, 10 Manaea, 11 Teoscar

13 Walker, 14 Scott, 16 Profar, 17 Eovaldi, 18 Hoffman, 19 O'Neall

20 Torres, 22 Estevez 24 Pederson, 25 Heaney, 26 H Kim, 28 Pivetta

31 Quintana, 32 Conforto, 33 Scherzer, 34 Minter, 35 Goldschmidt

37 Buehler, 38 Yates, 39 Soroka, 40, Kittredge, 41 Gibson, 42 Kahlne

43 H-S Kim, 45 Verlander, 46. Sugano, 47 Robertson, 48 Ogasawara

49 Bader, 50 Turnbull, NR K Jansen, C Martin, C Morton, C Kelly

zero significant money from the Sox yet

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

zero significant money from the Sox yet

It's all on Soto's choice. 

If we don't spend on him or others, Sox Nation will erupt!

[moonslav59]

Word is out, the Sox may be shopping Casas. (I'm guessing for Crochet?)

We also tried to get Bieber, and word was he took less to play with CLE. We may have been in on Holmes, who may or may not have been used as a SP'er.

I'm wondering if plan B is this, assuming we lose out on Soto:

Sign Bregman, Fried, Hoffman and Carson Kelly

Trade: Casas, Rafaela & Fitts for Crochet

SP: Fried, Crochet, Houck, Giolito, Bello

RP: Chapman, Hoffman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckoski, Wilson

1. Duran LF/CF

2. Bregman 3B

3. Devers 1B

4. Story SS

5. Yoshida/ Refsnyder DH platoon

6. Anthony CF

7. Abreu RF/Campbell RF/2B (Abreu-Grissom platoon)

8. Campbell 2B/Grissom 2B

9. Wong/Kelly C

Utility: DHam