Article: Is Next Year’s Closer Already in the Organization?

[Alex Mayes]

Unlike the starting rotation, the closer role hasn't been the subject of intense speculation, but there is a huge hole to be filled once Kenley Jansen departs. Might the Red Sox already have next season's closer on the roster?

With Kenley Jansen hitting the injured list, his time with the Boston Red Sox more than likely comes to a close. He’s gone on record saying that he would be interested in returning to Boston, but it is pretty clear that he has his eye on winding down his career, and this July, he said point blank, "I wanna see myself retiring in Dodger blue." These last two years should be looked at as mostly positive when Kenley is brought up. He was the brightest star in the bullpen more often than not. He ranked first among the team's relievers in terms with 1.4 WAR, second with 54.2 innings pitched, and third with a 3.29 ERA. He pitched through injury when the team needed him and offered a veteran presence to help settle the newcomers. There's no doubt, then, that his absence will be felt by his teammates. It also leaves one of the most important roster spots wide open. Let’s take a look at the internal candidates who could fill that role next season.

Liam Hendriks

Liam Hendriks has the most experience closing, hands down. Between 2019 and 2022, his 114 saves ranked third in baseball. He is a veteran presence with a huge personality that guys flock to. However, he’s coming off two completely lost seasons. In December 2022, Hendriks was diagnosed with Stage-4 non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Naturally, his attention turned to beating his diagnosis. However, he threw when he could, and he returned to the mound for the White Sox on May 29, 2023, just five months after his initial diagnosis. His return was short-lived. He only made 11 appearances before requiring Tommy John surgery in August 2023. During his brief rehab stint in Worcester, Hendriks made six appearances before being shut down again due to forearm soreness, which was reported as unrelated to the surgically repaired elbow. We'll have to wait and see whether the time off has any effect on Hendriks' stuff. He will be 36 before the next season begins. Craig Breslow seems to think that Hendriks will be competing for the closer spot, but regardless of his role, Hendriks can be a valuable bullpen piece.

Justin Slaten

The Red Sox are hoping that Rule 5 selection Justin Slaten will be a strong presence in their bullpen for years to come. When Jansen went down for the season, it was telling that Alex Cora designated Slaten and Chris Martin as the two relievers who would get a chance to shut the door on opposing teams. Slaten has battled through injuries this season, but when he’s been healthy he has been one of the more trusted relievers on the team. He currently sports a 2.98 ERA, a 9.6 K/9, and a 1.01 WHIP through 43 appearances. When shut down, Jansen had a 3.29 ERA, 10.2 K/9, and a 1.06 WHIP through 54 appearances. Those look pretty comparable to me. Slaten even throws a cutter like Jansen does, although he doesn’t feature it nearly as often. If given a full offseason to prepare for life as a closer, Slaten could rise to the challenge. He’s young, has bought into Andrew Bailey’s system, and could easily be the man in the ninth inning for the Red Sox next year — if it weren’t for one other person currently within the system. Speaking of former Rule 5 selections….

Garrett Whitlock

Did you forget about Whitlock? I have been part of the Garrett Whitlock Shouldn’t Be a Starter crew since the first attempt at putting him in the rotation. In 2022, Whitlock signed a four-year, $18.75 million contract extension with club options in 2027 and 2028. At the time, the extension was heralded as a steal. Whitlock came over from the Yankees in the 2020 virtual Rule 5 Draft and proved to be a top reliever in 2021. Since the extension, Whitlock has shuttled between the bullpen and the rotation while dealing with a litany of injuries. He came into the 2024 season noticeably stronger, and over four starts, he sported a 1.96 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and a 1.15 WHIP. But after an April IL stint and one May rehab start, an MRI revealed damage to Whitlock's UCL, and he underwent a season-ending internal brace procedure. If we look back to 2021, we see the makings of a true bullpen ace, someone who could easily be handed the ball in the ninth inning. Whitlock has a career ERA of 2.65 as a reliever and 4.29 as a starter. During the '21 season, Whitlock had a 1.96 ERA, a 9.9 K/9, and a 1.10 WHIP. While those numbers aren’t quite 2024-Jansen level, the stuff is there for Whitlock to become a solid lockdown closer, and he’s already under contract for two more years (plus two option years). Although it was three years ago now, we’ve seen him step into the biggest games and dominate. Whitlock has every chance to be that pitcher again, and allowing him to close should help mitigate the injury risk he has been carrying for the last three seasons.

It’s entirely possible that the front office decides to go outside of the organization to find their next closer, just as they did, and quite successfully, with Kenley Jansen. There will be some upper-tier relievers on the open market and some available in trades for the right price. Realistically, the organization needs to spend money elsewhere: a right-handed power bat, a couple of front-line starters, a power-hitting lefty outfielder named Juan Soto (but that's a story for another article). Turning to some relievers who are already in the organization and have the plus stuff and mental fortitude to close out games would be one of the smartest decisions Breslow and company could make this offseason.

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[Bellhorn04]

Hendriks and Whitlock will be coming off serious injuries.  Slaten looks like a great find, but he spent 1.5 months on the IL with an arm injury too.

Breslow needs to make at least one, hopefully two, "proven commodity" type acquisition.  

Martin reportedly is interested in returning for one more year, so that should definitely be considered. 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Hendriks and Whitlock will be coming off serious injuries.  Slaten looks like a great find, but he spent 1.5 months on the IL with an arm injury too.

Breslow needs to make at least one, hopefully two, "proven commodity" type acquisition.  

Martin reportedly is interested in returning for one more year, so that should definitely be considered. 

Agree on Hendricks, and Whit, and somewhat on Martin. I think Martin was starting to breakdown this year after a great 2023, but if they can get him somewhat cheap then yea. I said at the time that Jansen was a good pickup by Bloom, but a year too late. A younger, proven closer is more desirable.

[notin]

No mention of former closer Fulmer?

 

Martin is an option to come back, but not as a closer.

 

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

No mention of former closer Fulmer?

 

Martin is an option to come back, but not as a closer.

 

I think Fulmer would qualify as a "bonus" if he can pitch effectively in 2025.  

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think Fulmer would qualify as a "bonus" if he can pitch effectively in 2025.  

His only bad year was 2023 in Chicago, and that anticipated TJ surgery.  He’s a former ROY and a good pitcher…

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

His only bad year was 2023 in Chicago, and that anticipated TJ surgery.  He’s a former ROY and a good pitcher…

I liked the move.

[notin]

40 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I liked the move.

I’m just hoping they keep him and Whitlock in the bullpen.   If either does start, hopefully it’s only as an opener…

[moonslav59]

I think I'd rather have a healthy Whitlock as the closer and Hendriks & Slaten as the 1-2 set-up men. Fulmer offers some high end upside, but I hate counting on 2 guys to come back from long IL stints (Hendriks & Fulmer.)

It's like we are moving our SP acquisition plan to pen arms, Sign injured pitchers and roll the dice.

[dgalehouse]

Hendriks has experience as a closer. He would be my first choice before those other names mentioned. But I would prefer to acquire one of those young , high-octane flamethrowers. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Hendriks has experience as a closer. He would be my first choice before those other names mentioned. But I would prefer to acquire one of those young , high-octane flamethrowers. 

Anyone in mind? Most young ones are not free agents or available in trade.

[Randy Red Sox]

14 hours ago, Alex Mayes said:

Unlike the starting rotation, the closer role hasn't been the subject of intense speculation, but there is a huge hole to be filled once Kenley Jansen departs. Might the Red Sox already have next season's closer on the roster?

With Kenley Jansen hitting the injured list, his time with the Boston Red Sox more than likely comes to a close. He’s gone on record saying that he would be interested in returning to Boston, but it is pretty clear that he has his eye on winding down his career, and this July, he said point blank, "I wanna see myself retiring in Dodger blue." These last two years should be looked at as mostly positive when Kenley is brought up. He was the brightest star in the bullpen more often than not. He ranked first among the team's relievers in terms with 1.4 WAR, second with 54.2 innings pitched, and third with a 3.29 ERA. He pitched through injury when the team needed him and offered a veteran presence to help settle the newcomers. There's no doubt, then, that his absence will be felt by his teammates. It also leaves one of the most important roster spots wide open. Let’s take a look at the internal candidates who could fill that role next season.

Liam Hendriks

Liam Hendriks has the most experience closing, hands down. Between 2019 and 2022, his 114 saves ranked third in baseball. He is a veteran presence with a huge personality that guys flock to. However, he’s coming off two completely lost seasons. In December 2022, Hendriks was diagnosed with Stage-4 non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Naturally, his attention turned to beating his diagnosis. However, he threw when he could, and he returned to the mound for the White Sox on May 29, 2023, just five months after his initial diagnosis. His return was short-lived. He only made 11 appearances before requiring Tommy John surgery in August 2023. During his brief rehab stint in Worcester, Hendriks made six appearances before being shut down again due to forearm soreness, which was reported as unrelated to the surgically repaired elbow. We'll have to wait and see whether the time off has any effect on Hendriks' stuff. He will be 36 before the next season begins. Craig Breslow seems to think that Hendriks will be competing for the closer spot, but regardless of his role, Hendriks can be a valuable bullpen piece.

Justin Slaten

The Red Sox are hoping that Rule 5 selection Justin Slaten will be a strong presence in their bullpen for years to come. When Jansen went down for the season, it was telling that Alex Cora designated Slaten and Chris Martin as the two relievers who would get a chance to shut the door on opposing teams. Slaten has battled through injuries this season, but when he’s been healthy he has been one of the more trusted relievers on the team. He currently sports a 2.98 ERA, a 9.6 K/9, and a 1.01 WHIP through 43 appearances. When shut down, Jansen had a 3.29 ERA, 10.2 K/9, and a 1.06 WHIP through 54 appearances. Those look pretty comparable to me. Slaten even throws a cutter like Jansen does, although he doesn’t feature it nearly as often. If given a full offseason to prepare for life as a closer, Slaten could rise to the challenge. He’s young, has bought into Andrew Bailey’s system, and could easily be the man in the ninth inning for the Red Sox next year — if it weren’t for one other person currently within the system. Speaking of former Rule 5 selections….

Garrett Whitlock

Did you forget about Whitlock? I have been part of the Garrett Whitlock Shouldn’t Be a Starter crew since the first attempt at putting him in the rotation. In 2022, Whitlock signed a four-year, $18.75 million contract extension with club options in 2027 and 2028. At the time, the extension was heralded as a steal. Whitlock came over from the Yankees in the 2020 virtual Rule 5 Draft and proved to be a top reliever in 2021. Since the extension, Whitlock has shuttled between the bullpen and the rotation while dealing with a litany of injuries. He came into the 2024 season noticeably stronger, and over four starts, he sported a 1.96 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and a 1.15 WHIP. But after an April IL stint and one May rehab start, an MRI revealed damage to Whitlock's UCL, and he underwent a season-ending internal brace procedure. If we look back to 2021, we see the makings of a true bullpen ace, someone who could easily be handed the ball in the ninth inning. Whitlock has a career ERA of 2.65 as a reliever and 4.29 as a starter. During the '21 season, Whitlock had a 1.96 ERA, a 9.9 K/9, and a 1.10 WHIP. While those numbers aren’t quite 2024-Jansen level, the stuff is there for Whitlock to become a solid lockdown closer, and he’s already under contract for two more years (plus two option years). Although it was three years ago now, we’ve seen him step into the biggest games and dominate. Whitlock has every chance to be that pitcher again, and allowing him to close should help mitigate the injury risk he has been carrying for the last three seasons.

It’s entirely possible that the front office decides to go outside of the organization to find their next closer, just as they did, and quite successfully, with Kenley Jansen. There will be some upper-tier relievers on the open market and some available in trades for the right price. Realistically, the organization needs to spend money elsewhere: a right-handed power bat, a couple of front-line starters, a power-hitting lefty outfielder named Juan Soto (but that's a story for another article). Turning to some relievers who are already in the organization and have the plus stuff and mental fortitude to close out games would be one of the smartest decisions Breslow and company could make this offseason.

 

View full article

 

100 % that Hendriks will start the season as the closer

[Bellhorn04]

11 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

100 % that Hendriks will start the season as the closer

I'll go with 60%.

With 40% he starts the season on the IL.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'll go with 60%.

With 40% he starts the season on the IL.

I was thinking the same exact odds.

If he's healthy, and looks good in ST'ing, I'd say close to 100%, but if he looks shaky, they may start the year with Whitlock or Slaten closing.

Does anyone have much faith in any returning pen arms beyond Slaten, Whitlock and Hendriks? (Maybe Fulmer?)

To me, this would be a very nice 8 man AAA bullpen/ML depth group:

Kelly, Bernardino, Guerrero, Penrod, Weissert, I Campbell, Booser, Shugart

The sad part about this list, is that 3-5 of them will be on the opening day pen roster. (Maybe Fitts, Criswell or Priester could begin in the pen in April.)

 

[Larry Cook]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I was thinking the same exact odds.

If he's healthy, and looks good in ST'ing, I'd say close to 100%, but if he looks shaky, they may start the year with Whitlock or Slaten closing.

Does anyone have much faith in any returning pen arms beyond Slaten, Whitlock and Hendriks? (Maybe Fulmer?)

To me, this would be a very nice 8 man AAA bullpen/ML depth group:

Kelly, Bernardino, Guerrero, Penrod, Weissert, I Campbell, Booser, Shugart

The sad part about this list, is that 3-5 of them will be on the opening day pen roster. (Maybe Fitts, Criswell or Priester could begin in the pen in April.)

 

it would be huge if Bailey can help Guerrero find the strike zone. Kids stuff is above average for sure 

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I was thinking the same exact odds.

If he's healthy, and looks good in ST'ing, I'd say close to 100%, but if he looks shaky, they may start the year with Whitlock or Slaten closing.

Does anyone have much faith in any returning pen arms beyond Slaten, Whitlock and Hendriks? (Maybe Fulmer?)

To me, this would be a very nice 8 man AAA bullpen/ML depth group:

Kelly, Bernardino, Guerrero, Penrod, Weissert, I Campbell, Booser, Shugart

The sad part about this list, is that 3-5 of them will be on the opening day pen roster. (Maybe Fitts, Criswell or Priester could begin in the pen in April.)

 

The Red Sox need to go out, and get an experienced reliable closer, and don’t plan on reclamation projects IMO. Waiting to see who might work out in ST does not sound like a good plan to me. I said the same thing back in 2022 when Jansen should have been signed then.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'll go with 60%.

With 40% he starts the season on the IL.

40%%?!?
 

Based on previous injuries? ;)

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

40%%?!?
 

Based on previous injuries? ;)

Mostly based on he's obviously not healthy right now.  They thought he was going to pitch some at the end of this year but he had the dreaded setback.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

40%%?!?
 

Based on previous injuries? ;)

Current injury.🙈🤭

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Mostly based on he's obviously not healthy right now.  They thought he was going to pitch some at the end of this year but he had the dreaded setback.

He’s got 5 months to recover.  Given the direction the team was headed, even the most minor setback probably shuts him down…

[notin]

36 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Red Sox need to go out, and get an experienced reliable closer, and don’t plan on reclamation projects IMO. Waiting to see who might work out in ST does not sound like a good plan to me. I said the same thing back in 2022 when Jansen should have been signed then.

The Sox signed 2 experienced closers last off-season, presumably to replace the aging Martin and Jansen.  I doubt they sign another, especially given the options on the market.  But I hope they pursue Tanner Scott (who does have closer experience) since the current LHRP options are pretty fungible.

They needn’t anoint Scott as the closer.  But they’d probably have to pay him like one…

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox signed 2 experienced closers last off-season, presumably to replace the aging Martin and Jansen.  I doubt they sign another, especially given the options on the market.  But I hope they pursue Tanner Scott (who does have closer experience) since the current LHRP options are pretty fungible.

They needn’t anoint Scott as the closer.  But they’d probably have to pay him like one…

They signed 2 reclamations, which has been a favorite hobby of the Red Sox the past few years.

[dgalehouse]

Closing ain't easy.   It's a high stress job with a high breakdown and burn out rate.  There have been very few guys who have able to do it successfully for a length of time. Try to acquire a young, fresh arm that can hit triple digits on the gun. If he burns out after a couple of years, look for another one. Maybe you can get lucky and find a good one. In the meantime, Hendriks is the best bet . 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

 

 

17 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Closing ain't easy.   It's a high stress job with a high breakdown and burn out rate.  There have been very few guys who have able to do it successfully for a length of time. Try to acquire a young, fresh arm that can hit triple digits on the gun. If he burns out after a couple of years, look for another one. Maybe you can get lucky and find a good one. In the meantime, Hendriks is the best bet . 

Not sure why the formatting is messed up on this reply, but...

I wish we had traded for AJ Puk, at the deadline. I think he has 2 arbs left.

 

[notin]

19 hours ago, Old Red said:

They signed 2 reclamations, which has been a favorite hobby of the Red Sox the past few years.

And many other teams as well…

[notin]

18 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Closing ain't easy.   It's a high stress job with a high breakdown and burn out rate.  There have been very few guys who have able to do it successfully for a length of time. Try to acquire a young, fresh arm that can hit triple digits on the gun. If he burns out after a couple of years, look for another one. Maybe you can get lucky and find a good one. In the meantime, Hendriks is the best bet . 

High burnout rate?

I can’t think of a single closer (or player under 35) who “burned out”…

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, notin said:

And many other teams as well…

Yes, and the Red Sox used to be winners, and in the postseason, and now they are not.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

High burnout rate?

I can’t think of a single closer (or player under 35) who “burned out”…

 Dick The Monsta Radatz.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

High burnout rate?

I can’t think of a single closer (or player under 35) who “burned out”…

There are certainly plenty of closer types who were really good for a year or two and then gone well before age 35.  But as to whether it was "burnout" vs. plain old injuries or loss of effectiveness, that would be kind of a rabbit hole to go down.

[mvp 78]

I'd give the edge to Slaten. Whitlock could be a nice bulk innings guy like he was a few years ago and manage his appearances. Martin would still be a setup guy IMO. Hendriks is most likely a middle reliever as his stuff isn't there anymore. Guerrero has been decent, but I'd let him grow into a setup role for now.