Red Sox (Houck) vs Blue Jays (Bassitt): 9/23/24, 7:07pm

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

3 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

We aren’t discussing his defense. He’s clearly a well above average defender. 
We are going to have to agree to disagree on his offense. IMO he’s been awful this year. Too many K’s. No plate recognition whatsoever. Last walk august 9. Horrible OBP. 
So I’ll continue to criticize his offense and you can keep defending him.

Deal?

I'm not defending him; no reason to. I do enjoy the fact that Rafaela is living in your head rent free.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

And for the year? Is what he has done ok?

For a rookie, a certain yes on "okay."

If he was 28, I'd say no, but I'd be okay with him as my 4th OF'er/ Defensive replacement, PR guy.

FWAR has not been kind to Rafaela, in part because of his bad SS defense, while being forced to play out of position in his rookie year. If you divide the top 270 batters by most PAs, this year,  and then into 9 tiers, his 0.9 fWAR places him in the 7th tier, with more than 70 out of 270 players with a worse fWAR than he has.

This is his rookie year.

No, bottom 3rd tier is not good. It might not even be "okay," but within the context of being 23, a rookie and being jerked to SS, suddenly., I'm saying he's been borderline but okay.

His bWAR is a surprising 2.7. I'm not sure where that places him, but it's likely top 50% out of a 270 player sample size.

The guy is struggling, now, and has had other long periods of near the same. Go ahead and kick a guy when he's down, if it somehow works for you. I'm not joining your bandwagon.

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

You can’t assume that Rafaela’s career trajectory will mimic that of JBJ. He may or may not have acceptable or better years offensively. I am comparing Rafaela to Bradley when Bradley was equally useless offensively. I am NOT comparing their whole careers. There will come a point where Rafaela will need to prove himself with a bat or he will no longer be in the game-anywhere.

I'm not assuming it will or even implying it will.

If I had to project his career OPS over under on JBJ's career .684 mark, I'd pick under, but I have no way of knowing. It's .670 now, at age 23. Most players, who stick around, improve after age 23.

[FredLynn]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

For a rookie, a certain yes on "okay."

If he was 28, I'd say no, but I'd be okay with him as my 4th OF'er/ Defensive replacement, PR guy.

FWAR has not been kind to Rafaela, in part because of his bad SS defense, while being forced to play out of position in his rookie year. If you divide the top 270 batters by most PAs, this year,  and then into 9 tiers, his 0.9 fWAR places him in the 7th tier, with more than 70 out of 270 players with a worse fWAR than he has.

This is his rookie year.

No, bottom 3rd tier is not good. It might not even be "okay," but within the context of being 23, a rookie and being jerked to SS, suddenly., I'm saying he's been borderline but okay.

His bWAR is a surprising 2.7. I'm not sure where that places him, but it's likely top 50% out of a 270 player sample size.

The guy is struggling, now, and has had other long periods of near the same. Go ahead and kick a guy when he's down, if it somehow works for you. I'm not joining your bandwagon.

You aren’t being asked to join my bandwagon. 
Your problem is that you are grading him on his questionable offensive potential (which is by definition unproven ) and I am evaluating him on what he has done THIS YEAR. Maybe he’ll get better-and as I wrote I certainly hope he does-but THIS YEAR he hasn’t shown much with a bat. 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

We aren’t discussing his defense. He’s clearly a well above average defender. 
We are going to have to agree to disagree on his offense. IMO he’s been awful this year. Too many K’s. No plate recognition whatsoever. Last walk august 9. Horrible OBP. 
So I’ll continue to criticize his offense and you can keep defending him.

Deal?

I have not heard anyone say his offense is good. Some have pointed to RBIs,  and the fact that 19 HRs and 22 SBs isn't too shaby for a first 650 PAs of a career, but no. He has not been good.

Yes, horrible OBP. Yes, horrible plate discipline. Yes, long slumps. I'm not sure why these seem to be the most important aspects of a final grade. All are important, but so is D, HRs, SBs, HRs and other numbers.

Overall, he is better than you seem to make him out to be.

If we are talking about just the Rafaela since August 9th, I agree. I have no reason to think this is who he is and will be, forever.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

You aren’t being asked to join my bandwagon. 
Your problem is that you are grading him on his questionable offensive potential (which is by definition unproven ) and I am evaluating him on what he has done THIS YEAR. Maybe he’ll get better-and as I wrote I certainly hope he does-but THIS YEAR he hasn’t shown much with a bat. 

Where did I say I am grading him on potential? I gave numbers for 2024 and where he fits among the top 270 players in MLB by PAs (30 teams x 9 batters in a line-up.)

He ranks about 200th out of 270. For a 23 year old in his rookie year, playing more than half of his games at the wrong position, I call that "okay." 

You don't. I can agree to disagree with you on that.

He's not the worst player on the team or even the starting 9.

He's going through a terrible time, right now, and yes every PAs counts- the ones now and when he was hot, too.

No, he hasn't shown much with the bat, except when it counts, but I am not one to call that a skill.

19 HRs in your first 650 PAs is not bad.

The OBP and K:BB rate are worse than sucking.

I'd be fine with saying his offense has been less than "okay" but when factoring in his D and the context he's played in, his overall 2024 has been "okay."

Also, I know you never asked me to join your bandwagon. I was just pointing out, I see things way differently than you, and that's not a problem, to me. I enjoy a healthy debate, and you have always been respectful.

[moonslav59]

Only 5 pitchers in MLB have more IP and a lower ERA than Houck's 3.13 ERA:

(Sale misses by 1 IP.)

2.48 Skubal

2.56 Wheeler

2.95 Burnes

2.96 Miller

3.03 Lugo

Houck has a better WHIP than Lugo and Burnes.

Only 11 pitchers have more IP and a better ERA than Crawford, and Houck is not one, due to .2 less IP.

[illinoisredsox]

The problem with Fred isn’t that he has the opinion of Rafaela that he does.  That’s fine.

It’s that he feels the need to post it multiple times every game.

 

[FredLynn]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Where did I say I am grading him on potential? I gave numbers for 2024 and where he fits among the top 270 players in MLB by PAs (30 teams x 9 batters in a line-up.)

He ranks about 200th out of 270. For a 23 year old in his rookie year, playing more than half of his games at the wrong position, I call that "okay." 

You don't. I can agree to disagree with you on that.

He's not the worst player on the team or even the starting 9.

He's going through a terrible time, right now, and yes every PAs counts- the ones now and when he was hot, too.

No, he hasn't shown much with the bat, except when it counts, but I am not one to call that a skill.

19 HRs in your first 650 PAs is not bad.

The OBP and K:BB rate are worse than sucking.

I'd be fine with saying his offense has been less than "okay" but when factoring in his D and the context he's played in, his overall 2024 has been "okay."

Also, I know you never asked me to join your bandwagon. I was just pointing out, I see things way differently than you, and that's not a problem, to me. I enjoy a healthy debate, and you have always been respectful.

Of course I respect your understanding of the game! It’s much better than mine. 
That said, while his defense is a pleasure to watch-like that of JBJ-there has to be a better ability to hit the baseball than what he has shown so far. Maybe he’ll improve to an acceptable level which, because his defense is above average, doesn’t have to be stellar-just better. Watching him take huge swings at balls a foot outside the strike zone isn’t going to get him there. 
When Bradley sucked on offense he was dumped even though he remained an elite defender. I think offensively they are roughly the same when JBJ went south. I hope Rafaela doesn’t suffer the same fate. He’s got a long way to go.

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

The problem with Fred isn’t that he has the opinion of Rafaela that he does.  That’s fine.

It’s that he feels the need to post it multiple times every game.

 

Fortunately there aren’t many games left this year and no doubt Rafaela will be a .300 hitter next year. 

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Of course I respect your understanding of the game! It’s much better than mine. 
That said, while his defense is a pleasure to watch-like that of JBJ-there has to be a better ability to hit the baseball than what he has shown so far. Maybe he’ll improve to an acceptable level which, because his defense is above average, doesn’t have to be stellar-just better. Watching him take huge swings at balls a foot outside the strike zone isn’t going to get him there. 
When Bradley sucked on offense he was dumped even though he remained an elite defender. I think offensively they are roughly the same when JBJ went south. I hope Rafaela doesn’t suffer the same fate. He’s got a long way to go.

I have no way of knowing if Rafaela will ever improve enough to be even close to what JBJ was for those 6 years. He's already had a few years to try and learn better discipline. We know they worked with him on this at every level, and it backfired to the point where I think they gave up trying and just resigned themselves to the fact that this is who he is and maybe he can find ways to get enough hits, a decent amount of homers and then steal some bases to a level where his great defense pulls him to a net plus.

I don't know if that ever happens, because I doubt he ever "learns" strike zone discipline. There is a very long list of free-swinger flame outs. Bell a I looked at just how few plus offensive players had high K rates, and I found a few with 4:1 or 5:1 ratios, maybe a couple with 6:1, and no peers at 9:1. His K rate is scary as hell, and I have deep concerns he never improves, but he just turned 24. I never judge a guy on just his last 4-6 weeks. Hardly any player ever just repeats a 6 weeks stretch, over and over.

I don't expect great improvement, but most players do improve after 24 and up to 27 or 28- some even later. I doubt he makes it to 27 or 28, if he stays like he's been the last few weeks, but why assume this is him? All through his minor league career, we heard the same thing, then watched him have hot streaks after hot  streaks, enough time to turn his numbers into decent to good territory. He did it in the bigs, too, and was once at a point where his OPS was at the league average, after a sizable sample size.

He's struggling, now, and I understand why he's getting kicked around while down. I'm just saying I'm not joining in with a kick.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Only 5 pitchers in MLB have more IP and a lower ERA than Houck's 3.13 ERA:

(Sale misses by 1 IP.)

2.48 Skubal

2.56 Wheeler

2.95 Burnes

2.96 Miller

3.03 Lugo

Houck has a better WHIP than Lugo and Burnes.

Only 11 pitchers have more IP and a better ERA than Crawford, and Houck is not one, due to .2 less IP.

I would have appreciated it if he didn't save his worst start of the year for my one trip to Fenway. 😾

[FredLynn]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I have no way of knowing if Rafaela will ever improve enough to be even close to what JBJ was for those 6 years. He's already had a few years to try and learn better discipline. We know they worked with him on this at every level, and it backfired to the point where I think they gave up trying and just resigned themselves to the fact that this is who he is and maybe he can find ways to get enough hits, a decent amount of homers and then steal some bases to a level where his great defense pulls him to a net plus.

I don't know if that ever happens, because I doubt he ever "learns" strike zone discipline. There is a very long list of free-swinger flame outs. Bell a I looked at just how few plus offensive players had high K rates, and I found a few with 4:1 or 5:1 ratios, maybe a couple with 6:1, and no peers at 9:1. His K rate is scary as hell, and I have deep concerns he never improves, but he just turned 24. I never judge a guy on just his last 4-6 weeks. Hardly any player ever just repeats a 6 weeks stretch, over and over.

I don't expect great improvement, but most players do improve after 24 and up to 27 or 28- some even later. I doubt he makes it to 27 or 28, if he stays like he's been the last few weeks, but why assume this is him? All through his minor league career, we heard the same thing, then watched him have hot streaks after hot  streaks, enough time to turn his numbers into decent to good territory. He did it in the bigs, too, and was once at a point where his OPS was at the league average, after a sizable sample size.

He's struggling, now, and I understand why he's getting kicked around while down. I'm just saying I'm not joining in with a kick.

Its not just the last six weeks, as you know. Its what he is: total lack of discipline at the plate. It has to improve or he's going to find himself out of baseball, no matter how good a defender he is. That time is not now; its probably not early next year either-but if he continues to routinely swing at balls  foot off the plate and maintains an unacceptable OBP he will become a footnote in baseball history.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Its not just the last six weeks, as you know. Its what he is: total lack of discipline at the plate. It has to improve or he's going to find himself out of baseball, no matter how good a defender he is. That time is not now; its probably not early next year either-but if he continues to routinely swing at balls  foot off the plate and maintains an unacceptable OBP he will become a footnote in baseball history.

Even if he continues a 20+ SB & 20 HR/650 PA pace with a .650 OPS? (.650 is .070 from the league norm.)

[vegasbob]

Odd isn't it that when the chance at  a playoff appearance ( singular) remained at hand, the team ( hitters) could do nothing to support effective pitching,  but as soon as it is just beyond reach, and minus Devers, K.Jansen, Refsnyder, the team can run off a 3 game streak.  

Baseball is odd that way.   

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

Odd isn't it that when the chance at  a playoff appearance ( singular) remained at hand, the team ( hitters) could do nothing to support effective pitching,  but as soon as it is just beyond reach, and minus Devers, K.Jansen, Refsnyder, the team can run off a 3 game streak.  

Baseball is odd that way.   

I thought the same thing watching the game, last night.

It looked like a totally different team out there.

[FredLynn]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Even if he continues a 20+ SB & 20 HR/650 PA pace with a .650 OPS? (.650 is .070 from the league norm.)

His OBP is abysmal at around .275 for his career. Average OBP for ML is .312 this year. I want someone who can actually get on base in addition to hitting for power-when he manages to make contact  with the baseball, which is far too infrequent. Aside from the statistics there is the "eye test". He looks lost at the plate. He seems to make up his mind that he is going to swing or not swing before the pitch is even thrown. Thats the main issue: OBP and K to BB ratio. BTW, his OPS+ is  82 this year. I think thats more useful than just OPS.

He is simply not a guy I want as my starting CFer. Maybe a backup...maybe. Overall I take Duran in CF and Abreu in RF as we find a new LFer.

Regardless, I am not going to rag on him any more on the game threads, at least not as much-by popular demand. Everyone knows what I think about him. Give him another few months at the beginning of next year. No improvement and I'd get rid of him.

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

His OBP is abysmal at around .275 for his career. Average OBP for ML is .312 this year. I want someone who can actually get on base in addition to hitting for power-when he manages to make contact  with the baseball, which is far too infrequent. Aside from the statistics there is the "eye test". He looks lost at the plate. He seems to make up his mind that he is going to swing or not swing before the pitch is even thrown. Thats the main issue: OBP and K to BB ratio. BTW, his OPS+ is  82 this year. I think thats more useful than just OPS.

He is simply not a guy I want as my starting CFer. Maybe a backup...maybe. Overall I take Duran in CF and Abreu in RF as we find a new LFer.

Regardless, I am not going to rag on him any more on the game threads, at least not as much-by popular demand. Everyone knows what I think about him. Give him another few months at the beginning of next year. No improvement and I'd get rid of him.

I totally get the whole OBP gripe, and I agree that a continued .275 OBP would not be acceptable, even with GG defense and 20 HRs with 25 SBs. OBP is more important than slugging, and his great D would not offset that.

I keep coming back to this being his rookie year, and being asked to play multiple positions. He did offer some hope in AAA (.370 OBP) and was okay in AA (.328.) His career minor league OBP is an acceptable .331, but I fully realize OBP is often not carried over to the bigs. He's never going to walk much, if he keeps swinging at bad pitches.

I still think within the context of his age, first MLB year and being forced to play 2 very difficult positions almost 50-50, his overall performance was okay or borderline okay. It's hard to read the last few weeks as a trend, a slump or a sign of things to come. For all we know, maybe his few decent streaks was a "real" sign.

No matter what we both think, we have too many OF'ers on the 26, 40 and down the pipeline, that he will not be our starting CF'er, if he continues with a .275 OBP. We probably agree on that.

A quick question: is there anything you are really happy about with this team?

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I totally get the whole OBP gripe, and I agree that a continued .275 OBP would not be acceptable, even with GG defense and 20 HRs with 25 SBs. OBP is more important than slugging, and his great D would not offset that.

I keep coming back to this being his rookie year, and being asked to play multiple positions. He did offer some hope in AAA (.370 OBP) and was okay in AA (.328.) His career minor league OBP is an acceptable .331, but I fully realize OBP is often not carried over to the bigs. He's never going to walk much, if he keeps swinging at bad pitches.

I still think within the context of his age, first MLB year and being forced to play 2 very difficult positions almost 50-50, his overall performance was okay or borderline okay. It's hard to read the last few weeks as a trend, a slump or a sign of things to come. For all we know, maybe his few decent streaks was a "real" sign.

No matter what we both think, we have too many OF'ers on the 26, 40 and down the pipeline, that he will not be our starting CF'er, if he continues with a .275 OBP. We probably agree on that.

A quick question: is there anything you are really happy about with this team?

Absolutely!

I think several young players have very good potential: Abreu, Wong, Casas, Bello, and several minor league prospects. Duran has had an outstanding year. I may have left some players out. 
If Story can manage to stay healthy he’d be a very good addition too. 

[FredLynn]

Bad BB there

[FredLynn]

And that’s why it was a bad BB. You can’t let Vlad beat you 

[vegasbob]

My only comment on the Rfaela deal, especially in September is that he is slightly built (5'9"/165??) and has played a full season ( 150 games and still counting) .  He has played 2 demanding positions well enough that management has not seen fit to sit him down.      That's all to his credit .

The swing/miss choices and OBP are poor.    But consider, young Caribbean basin players, including DR are looking at a chance in a 1000 to get out of their countries and enjoy generational wealth for likely a large family .    They were not going to get signed for walking or bunting.  Swing the bat, something may happen.

I think Cedanne, Abreu, Devers, and Guerrero for BJ's are examples of this.        Rafaela's contract  was a year premature and should have been dependent on his self improvement.