Article: Is Center Field Ceddanne Rafaela’s for the Taking?

[Davy Andrews]

Ceddanne Rafaela still needs to develop, and he doesn't look like a middle infielder. But as an everyday center fielder, he still has a real chance to be a bona fide star.

On Sunday, our Daniel Fox took a look at Ceddanne Rafaela’s Plate “Discipline,” and the quotation marks were not an accident. Rafaela chases more and walks less than any qualified player in baseball. It’s hard to overstate how disastrous that is. Plate discipline is the problem that can either cause or solve all the other problems. You whiff too much? Well, if you only swing at hittable pitches, you’re going buoy your contact rate by cutting out lots of whiffs on balls in the dirt and fastballs above the zone. You don’t swing very hard? Well, if you only swing at pitches you can really crush, you’ll send your hard-hit rate and exit velocity skyrocketing, because you’ll be cutting out all those mis-hits that come from chasing sliders and getting jammed on high cutters. For a player like Rafaela, who can struggle in both categories, it’s all the more important. Rafaela’s saving grace as a hitter is that he’s pretty good at copying the Isaac Paredes playbook — pulling the ball in the air — and he also benefits from playing in a ballpark well suited to that gambit. He doesn’t necessarily have to crush the ball to lift it over the Green Monster, and when he bounces an even softer-hit ball off it, his speed ensures extra bases in cases where other batters would have been forced to settle for a single. Here's a classic Rafaela double.

Rafaela launched it at just 81.7 mph, nowhere near the 95-mph threshold for hard-hit balls, but he’s got so much speed that the left fielder never even considers trying to throw him out. Still, these skills have combined to bring him just an 82 wRC+, meaning that he’s 18% below league-average as a hitter, which makes him the fifth-worst qualified batter in baseball.

That’s a big problem, especially because plate disciple is very sticky year-over-year. Sports Info Solutions has been tracking plate discipline data since 2002. Over that timeframe, I compared the rookie and veteran chase rates of every player who made at least 250 plate appearances as a rookie and at least 1500 in total.

What you’re seeing is an extremely strong correlation. Once they graduated from rookie status, the average player saw their chase rate improve by just 1.7 percentage points. Evan Gattis, the player with the biggest drop, knocked 8.2 percentage points off his rookie chase rate. But keep in mind that there’s almost nobody on this graph with a chase rate as high as Rafaela’s 46% mark. Even if he were to somehow knock a literally unprecedented 10 points off it, he’d still have one of the highest chase rates in the league. All of this is to confirm what Daniel said on Sunday, that Rafaela “only really has average offensive upside.” His upside as an all-around player, however, is much higher, if he’s put in the right position.

There were plenty of reasons to celebrate the early return of Trevor Story last week. Story has spent so much of his time with the Red Sox on the IL, and he deserves some good news. Rafaela’s defensive performance at shortstop is another reason to celebrate the return. In Story’s absence, the advanced metrics rated Rafaela extremely poorly at short. DRS indicated that he cost the Sox just one run, but both DRP and FRV saw him as losing five runs. That ranked him in the bottom five in baseball, even though he spent fewer than 700 innings at the position. I’m sure that he’d improve if he got more time there, but I think one of the big lessons of this season is that shortstop is not Rafaela’s future. It’s time to get him in center field and let him cook.

Jarren Duran didn’t just handle center field while Rafaela was in the infield, he absolutely crushed it. However, this is where we need to trust what scouts have been telling us for years: Rafaela can be – in fact, might already be – one of the greatest defensive center fielders in the world. Versatility is great, but with his offensive upside capped right around league-average, he’s just not going to be as valuable to the Sox as a middle infielder. In center field, he can be a legitimate weapon, and with Duran manning a corner, the Boston outfield becomes one of the most fearsome defensive units in all of baseball. This season, Statcast has them saving 16 defensive runs; imagine what that number would be with Rafaela and Duran getting everyday reps in the same position.

According to FanGraphs, since 1990, there have been 36 seasons when a position player put up a 4.0-WAR season (which is generally considered All-Star performance) despite being a below-average hitter. Sixteen of those 36 seasons came from center fielders, way more than any other position. In other words, if you’re a player with an iffy bat, playing a fantastic center field represents your best chance by far of playing like a star. 

Even before the team decides what to do with Tyler O’Neill, the outfield looks mighty to be crowded next season. Duran and Wilyer Abreu demand a place, and Roman Anthony is doing his best to bust down the door as soon as humanly possible. Still, Rafaela’s contract ensures all but ensures that he’ll be on the roster and in the starting lineup for a long, long time. He should get a chance to make the most of it.

View full article

[Bellhorn04]

I hate to say it, but I don't think Rafaela is going to make it.  145 Ks and 15 BBs is ridiculous.  Pitchers don't even have to throw him strikes any more.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure he can "make it" with an OPS below .650, but I'm not sure he will be there, more often that not.

.586 for 1st 203 PAs (2024)

.787 next 273 PAs

.441 in last 68 PAs

The two really bad sample sizes, combined is about equal to his nice one, so it begs the question, which one is the "real" one? Maybe he will always be up and down and end up between .650 and .700: maybe not.

I think .650 is about the cut off, these days, and the norm seems to be around .680-.690.

With Anthony banging on the door, and Rafaela being the only RHB in the OF, I'm thinking Abreu might be the odd man out, as in being traded, this winter.

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I hate to say it, but I don't think Rafaela is going to make it.  145 Ks and 15 BBs is ridiculous.  Pitchers don't even have to throw him strikes any more.

I'm inclined to agree with you, but mostly because historically the Sox have never, ever opted for a full time centerfielder who flat can't hit.    And guess who currently has the highest DWAR on the Sox?  Duran @ +2.6, who only also happens to lead the Sox in total bases, 314, which is 44 more than 2d place Rafael Devers.  

All that said, Rafaela would be my first choice for SS if Story gets injured again.  

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I hate to say it, but I don't think Rafaela is going to make it.  145 Ks and 15 BBs is ridiculous.  Pitchers don't even have to throw him strikes any more.

'22 - 113 K, 26 BB

'23 - 131 K, 30 BB

I mean, he's pretty much doing what he was projected to do. I thought the extension was a little early/high. He's a good player if you can absorb him at 9. You just can't really cheapen out at many other fielding positions. 

[mvp 78]

Last offseason, some people questioned if they should trade him for Edward Cabrera of the Marlins. I don't think Cabrera would have helped the Sox very much this year and I'm not high on him going forward. 

[Maxbialystock]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

'22 - 113 K, 26 BB

'23 - 131 K, 30 BB

I mean, he's pretty much doing what he was projected to do. I thought the extension was a little early/high. He's a good player if you can absorb him at 9. You just can't really cheapen out at many other fielding positions. 

Despite the K's and the .669 OPS, Rafaela has played in the 2d most games--145 to Duran's 151--on the Sox this season because he's exceptional in CF and, I believe, the 2d best defensive SS after Story.  He also seems to be healthier than Story and/or Mayer.    I'm not sure I agree with his $50M for 8 years contract, but I do think he will continue to be useful on defense.  Too bad his propensity to swing (and miss) at almost any pitch is apparently unfixable.  

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Despite the K's and the .669 OPS, Rafaela has played in the 2d most games--145 to Duran's 151--on the Sox this season because he's exceptional in CF and, I believe, the 2d best defensive SS after Story.  He also seems to be healthier than Story and/or Mayer.    I'm not sure I agree with his $50M for 8 years contract, but I do think he will continue to be useful on defense.  Too bad his propensity to swing (and miss) at almost any pitch is apparently unfixable.  

I agree that he has a lot of utility. If he was 100% committed to SS, he probably could be better than Story. Switching between the two positions is not helping him in the least. 

The problem remains where to put him while you have Duran and Story on the roster. 2b is a waste. I think they need to decide where they want him for the next 6 years and just put him there on Opening Day. From what I know of the Red Sox, they'll continue to hem and haw over the decision and he'll still play all 3 positions in some manner next season UNLESS they deal a few of the playing time roadblocks. 

[Bellhorn04]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

'22 - 113 K, 26 BB

'23 - 131 K, 30 BB

I mean, he's pretty much doing what he was projected to do. I thought the extension was a little early/high. He's a good player if you can absorb him at 9. You just can't really cheapen out at many other fielding positions. 

His 2024 K/BB ratio seems unprecedented for a player who's made it this far.  I would have thought it's unsustainable.

He's making Will Middlebrooks's and Bobby Dalbec's MLB career 5 to 1 ratios look good by comparison. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

His K/BB ratio seems unprecedented for a player who's made it this far.  I would have thought it's unsustainable.

He's making Will Middlebrooks's and Bobby Dalbec's MLB career 5 to 1 ratios look good by comparison. 

If Rafaela was a 1B or 3B like those two, he would have never been promoted. He'd be mashing in AAA and everyone would be crying about how the offense desperately needs Rafaela because of how pathetic they have been lately. 

[Bellhorn04]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Rafaela was a 1B or 3B like those two, he would have never been promoted. He'd be mashing in AAA and everyone would be crying about how the offense desperately needs Rafaela because of how pathetic they have been lately. 

To get to the heart of the matter, has any player in MLB history had an extended career with a K/BB ratio of 9 to 1?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Sox should just pick a game this week and each at bat make Rafaela go up to the plate barehanded... but just for the first two pitches each time. Because no Red Sox maybe in my fading brain's history has been 0-and-2 in so many ABs the last two months.

It always seems like whenever a guy is slumping, he's always in an 0-and-2 hole (but usually not from swinging at every single ball out of the zone). The first batter I recall noticing this was Carl Crawford in 2011. Since then, there have been plenty of Bradleys, Dalbecs, Durans, Abreus, Storys, Devers, and Casases to go around.

But imagine the pressure no bat would put on the pitcher! If Ceddanne can just coax one ball in two pitches,  he'll be back in business. Check out his 2024 batting averages -- 0-2 (96 PA): .146; 1-1 (50 PA): .367; 2-0 (SIX PA -- no, really): .200... 1-for-5 with a sac fly; smallest sample size in MLB.

Then again, in 1-and-0 counts (26 PA) Rafaela is batting .417 with a 1.275 OPS!!! Here's an idea, Cora -- GIVE HIM A FREAKING TAKE SIGN!!!!

[Bellhorn04]

It only stands to get worse.  In his last 32 games, 36 Ks and ZERO walks. A ratio of INFINITY. 

Yikes, I know I'm sounding like poster Fred Lynn here, but the numbers are what they are.

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

 

Then again, in 1-and-0 counts (26 PA) Rafaela is batting .417 with a 1.275 OPS!!! Here's an idea, Cora -- GIVE HIM A FREAKING TAKE SIGN!!!!

When they tried to force him to take more pitches in MiLB, his OPS cratered. He just doesn't have a batter's eye at all. Why force him to take a pitch right down the middle? He's best when he swings away. It's ugly, but it would only be uglier otherwise. 

[Duran Is The Man]

37 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Sox should just pick a game this week and each at bat make Rafaela go up to the plate barehanded... but just for the first two pitches each time. Because no Red Sox maybe in my fading brain's history has been 0-and-2 in so many ABs the last two months.

It always seems like whenever a guy is slumping, he's always in an 0-and-2 hole (but usually not from swinging at every single ball out of the zone). The first batter I recall noticing this was Carl Crawford in 2011. Since then, there have been plenty of Bradleys, Dalbecs, Durans, Abreus, Storys, Devers, and Casases to go around.

But imagine the pressure no bat would put on the pitcher! If Ceddanne can just coax one ball in two pitches,  he'll be back in business. Check out his 2024 batting averages -- 0-2 (96 PA): .146; 1-1 (50 PA): .367; 2-0 (SIX PA -- no, really): .200... 1-for-5 with a sac fly; smallest sample size in MLB.

Then again, in 1-and-0 counts (26 PA) Rafaela is batting .417 with a 1.275 OPS!!! Here's an idea, Cora -- GIVE HIM A FREAKING TAKE SIGN!!!!

you'd think that with as much money as Henry spends on analytics and some people actually bragging about how Brezslow has done a great job "rebuiling the analytics department",  and Cora being such a "genius", that one of these morons would know this. clearly not.

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

To get to the heart of the matter, has any player in MLB history had an extended career with a K/BB ratio of 9 to 1?

I looked at all players from 1975-2024 with 3,000+ PAs and their K% vs BB%, here is what I found:

The answer is no.

Almost 7:1: Miguel Olivo

6:1 Javier Baez, T Anderson

5:1 Zunino, S Dunston

4:1 Story, Adam Duvall, Teoscar, D Espinoza, J McCann, Corey Snyder, Grichuk, R Odor, Y Gomes, N Castellenos, C Patterson, Sa Perez, D Young, Hillenbrand plus others

Rafaela is 27.3% to 3.0% (9:1)

 

[mvp 78]

After falling 0-1, Rafaela has an OPS of 512. 

He has a first pitch swing % of 50%. The only other Sox regulars 35% or higher are Wong (35%) and Romy (42%). League average is 30.4%.

[moonslav59]

The 9:1 K:BB ratio is terrifying, but these numbers are not:

Stats where more PAs help, Rafaela places: T4 HRs (w 15), 3rd RBI (w 70), 4th Runs (68), 3rd SBs (19)

Stats not based on more PAs (14 players 1ith 150+ PAs): 9th in BA (.245), 11th SLG (.394), 12th OPS (.669), 14th OBP (.275), 11th ISO at  .147

I would say, despite the K:BB rate, his first full year was pretty good, and certainly not bad.

His defense is tremendous, and although he was not great at SS, he was better than DHam, there.

 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The 9:1 K:BB ratio is terrifying, but these numbers are not:

Stats where more PAs help, Rafaela places: T4 HRs (w 15), 3rd RBI (w 70), 4th Runs (68), 3rd SBs (19)

Stats not based on more PAs (14 players 1ith 150+ PAs): 9th in BA (.245), 11th SLG (.394), 12th OPS (.669), 14th OBP (.275), 11th ISO at  .147

I would say, despite the K:BB rate, his first full year was pretty good, and certainly not bad.

His defense is tremendous, and although he was not great at SS, he was better than DHam, there.

 

Yes, he has good counting stats because he plays a lot. 

[mvp 78]

He POSTS!

[Bellhorn04]

His total numbers for the year are not bad for a good fielder.  But the trend is alarming.  With an approach like his, MLB pitchers armed with a year's worth of data might just carve him up.    

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, he has good counting stats because he plays a lot. 

Yes, that was why I separated those.