Do Not Trade The Big 3

[mvp 78]

Mayer, Anthony, teel, cespedes, Campbell and blies have to be very close to untouchable.

 

Very hard to deal Anthony or Teel. I could be talked into the others, but Bleis and Cespedes have low trade value being so far away.

[mvp 78]

Vlad's exit velo is the highest it's been since 21. xBA, xSLG, xWOBA are the same. He has a career high hard hit rate. What is happening now is he's hitting less fly balls. If he hit the ball in the air more, he'd be better off.

[Bellhorn04]

And Casas has a career OPS+ of 127. Is this really a significant upgrade?

 

Of course not. Like I said, there's no room for Vlad with the Sox.

[notin]

Of course not. Like I said, there's no room for Vlad with the Sox.

 

This seems like one of those Star Hoarder ideas. The Sox could get a RHH platoon bat to upgrade the offense and not go around collecting All Stars all willy nilly just because some other team does…

[moonslav59]

I like my simple plan.

 

One from Eflin, Eovaldi, Kikuchi or Tyler Anderson

One RHH bat that can be worked into the lineup. Mark Canha is an excellent fit

One dirt cheap start solely for depth. Chris Flexen fills this need.

One second baseman (if necessary)

 

Why 2B over SS? A DHam-Romy (Valdez/Grissom) works okay at 2B.

While using Rafaela at SS works well, in terms of getting ABs for Duran, O'Neill, Abreu and Refsnyder, both Abreu and Ref bat LH'd, so we kinda need Rafaela in CF vs LHPs.

 

In theory, we could not spend a penny or a prospect on a RHB in the OF. We could either add a SS (RHB) and play Rafaela in CF FT, or just swap Ref or Abreu for an equal OF'er who bats RH'd.

 

I'd add a few more to your list of acceptable SP'er additions, and I'd shoot for 2 SP'ers aove the "depth level." I realize we won't do that, but with so many of our SP'er, already maxing out on career IP in a season, we need to manage their workloads, going forward. If we want to win in 2024, resting Houck, Crawford and Bello seems to go against that, but we may need to do just that to get to the playoffs with out 3 burnt out starters.

 

We may want a 6 man rotation for the last 2 months:

 

Houck

Nate (Crochet)

Crawford

1 from Eflin/Kikuchi/Anderson/Flaherty/Bassitt/Irvin/Sandoval/Fetner/ TWilliams/Fedde/Greene/Gore/Olson/Littell/JJones

Pivetta

Bello

(Criswell as the 7th SP'er and "depth.)

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

I like Vlad Jr. but don't understand the hard-on for him. He has conditioning issues, and his power has all but evaporated, probably with that being a factor.

 

Agreed. He has not come close to the numbers he put up in 2021. He may come close, someday, but he's too risky.

 

Plus, we have a 1Bman (Casas) and DH (Yoshida/Ref/Valdez/O'Neill)

 

It would make more sense to get a big RHB that plays middle IF or even OF, if we swap out Ref or Abreu plus prospects for a better RHB one.

[moonslav59]

Very hard to deal Anthony or Teel. I could be talked into the others, but Bleis and Cespedes have low trade value being so far away.

 

Agreed. Both Bleis and Cespedes have too much upside potential value to trade, now.

 

I also like keeping Anthony and Teel over Mayer and Campbell, but I'd like to keep all 6.

 

You have to give to get, and I'd trade any of the top 6, plus 2-3 from the below #6 prospects for a solid SP'er with 3 or more years of team control below age 30-31. Those type of deals are way more common during the winter- not at deadlines.

[mvp 78]

Agreed. Both Bleis and Cespedes have too much upside potential value to trade, now.

 

I also like keeping Anthony and Teel over Mayer and Campbell, but I'd like to keep all 6.

 

You have to give to get, and I'd trade any of the top 6, plus 2-3 from the below #6 prospects for a solid SP'er with 3 or more years of team control below age 30-31. Those type of deals are way more common during the winter- not at deadlines.

 

I'd rather keep them all too, but people also want to add. How can you add a legit piece without parting with legit prospects?!?!? If you want a TOTR starter, nobody can really be untouchable.

[Bellhorn04]

This seems like one of those Star Hoarder ideas. The Sox could get a RHH platoon bat to upgrade the offense and not go around collecting All Stars all willy nilly just because some other team does…

 

Yes, Justin Turner would be a realistic trade with the Jays.

[notin]

Yes, Justin Turner would be a realistic trade with the Jays.

 

I’ve been shilling for Canha from Detroit. Pros and cons to both, I suppose…

[Bellhorn04]

I’ve been shilling for Canha from Detroit. Pros and cons to both, I suppose…

 

Yes, I've seen Canha mentioned elsewhere.

[moonslav59]

I'd rather keep them all too, but people also want to add. How can you add a legit piece without parting with legit prospects?!?!? If you want a TOTR starter, nobody can really be untouchable.

 

Yes, I basically said that in my last paragraph. I would like to see us do it, this winter.

 

Any top 3 prospect plus 2-3 prospects from #7 down for a solid SP with 3+ years of control without going over age 31.

 

I might even be okay with trading a top 4 plus Bleis or Cespedes and Fitts or Sandlin for an ace with 3+ years of control. That's a 1-4 + a 5-6 + a 7+.

[moonslav59]

Yes, Justin Turner would be a realistic trade with the Jays.

 

I'm worried about Casas for 2024. While DSmith has been doing better, improving on him would be nice. I still think SP, SP, SS/2B ans RP are higher priorities, I'd be fine with an add like him.

 

If JH would agree to a budget bump, we could probably get a SP'er and Turner from TOR without giving up top prospects. (AAV without pro-rating 2024)

 

$22M x 2.3 Gausman

$22M x 1.3 Bassitt

$19M x 4.3 Berrios

$13M x 0.3 Turner

$10M x 0.3 Kikuchi

 

Rentals Kikuchi and Turner should not cost a top 6-9 prospect, well maybe Fitts or Sandlin.

 

Getting Berrios and Turner would be costly, and Jose just turned 30, so I worry about 4 years from ages 30-34. Bassit is 35, but 1.3 years is not too scary and shouldn't be too costly.

 

Gausman and Turner would likely cost us Campbell or Cespedes or maybe Cespedes & Bleis plus others, minimum, and might cost a top 3.

 

I'd prefer a deal like these to Vladdy.

[notin]

I'd rather keep them all too, but people also want to add. How can you add a legit piece without parting with legit prospects?!?!? If you want a TOTR starter, nobody can really be untouchable.

 

 

“Legit prospects” doesn’t necessarily mean a BA Top 100 prospect. Could the Sox land Kikuchi or Eflin or Anderson for, say, Yorke? Or Zanatello?

[moonslav59]

“Legit prospects” doesn’t necessarily mean a BA Top 100 prospect. Could the Sox land Kikuchi or Eflin or Anderson for, say, Yorke? Or Zanatello?

 

I think rentals might be gotten for Paulino or Casstro or maybe Lugo + Valdez/Jordan.

[mvp 78]

“Legit prospects” doesn’t necessarily mean a BA Top 100 prospect. Could the Sox land Kikuchi or Eflin or Anderson for, say, Yorke? Or Zanatello?

 

Well, that's the difference between TOTR starter and the guys you listed.

[moonslav59]

Well, that's the difference between TOTR starter and the guys you listed.

 

What would be the cost of a TOTR rental?

 

IMO, not a top 3, and maybe not a top 5 or 6, either.

[Dipre]

I don't think Devers and Vlad are comparable, as you can argue Devers is the better athlete. That's why he still plays the field and Vlad does not.

 

Guerrero hit the ball very hard, but needs improvement to his launch angle from what I've gathered. There's something there.

 

Vlad's exit velo is the highest it's been since 21. xBA, xSLG, xWOBA are the same. He has a career high hard hit rate. What is happening now is he's hitting less fly balls. If he hit the ball in the air more, he'd be better off.

 

Yeah, this. His launch angle is strangely low for a guy his size and with very much an uppercut swing.

[mvp 78]

What would be the cost of a TOTR rental?

 

IMO, not a top 3, and maybe not a top 5 or 6, either.

 

How long is the rent for?

[mvp 78]

Yeah, this. His launch angle is strangely low for a guy his size and with very much an uppercut swing.

 

He's having a fine year, but his numbers should be way better. After they moved the fences in, I thought some of those Jays would have put crazy numbers up. Very weird.

 

I was always down on the coaching up there, but after winning the offseason a few times and even a trade deadline or two, the Jays are f***ing dead.

[Dipre]

He's having a fine year, but his numbers should be way better. After they moved the fences in, I thought some of those Jays would have put crazy numbers up. Very weird.

 

I was always down on the coaching up there, but after winning the offseason a few times and even a trade deadline or two, the Jays are f***ing dead.

 

It's been a hitters' park for a while, yet they have a bunch of talented hitters who seemingly underperform.

[moonslav59]

How long is the rent for?

 

Deadline deals... (2 months + maybe playoffs)

[Larry Cook]

So… no earth-shattering trades?

 

Garret Crochet is on the block. Unless your offer is offer is headlined by Nick Yorke or David Sandlin…

 

Why do we want to trade for him???

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I mean….Soto is on a different island.

 

Yeah, Soto is better than Vlad Jr., but the Red Sox offer I proposed doesn't include a major league pitcher with a 3.3 WAR and with three more years of control (M.King). Instead, my offer involved one high end prospect (Teel) and a few other less enticing prospects.

 

Vlad Jr. might not fit into the Red Sox projected spending over the next few years and it might be a better idea to invest big money in a free agent starter. Regardless of budgetary issues, the Red Sox will need to replace Yoshida sometime in the near future. Based on what we have seen, he isn't a competent DH on a championship winning team and an upgrade will likely be necessary. It would be great if Yoshida could rediscover his stroke from last season, before the bottom fell out, but his offensive problems are probably too severe to overcome. He is likely a sunk cost, similar to Hanley, Sandoval, and Castillo.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, Soto is better than Vlad Jr., but the Red Sox offer I proposed doesn't include a major league pitcher with a 3.3 WAR and with three more years of control (M.King). Instead, my offer involved one high end prospect (Teel) and a few other less enticing prospects.

 

Vlad Jr. might not fit into the Red Sox projected spending over the next few years and it might be a better idea to invest big money in a free agent starter. Regardless of budgetary issues, the Red Sox will need to replace Yoshida sometime in the near future. Based on what we have seen, he isn't a competent DH on a championship winning team and an upgrade will likely be necessary. It would be great if Yoshida could rediscover his stroke from last season, before the bottom fell out, but his offensive problems are probably too severe to overcome. He is likely a sunk cost, similar to Hanley, Sandoval, and Castillo.

 

Refsnyder is one of the top 30 OPS guys, this year and top 30 vs LHPs for the last 3 years combined. He can DH, and will have to, if Rafaela ends up back in CF FT in 2025. (Duran-Rafaela-Abreu in OF with Anthony banging on the door.)

 

We also have Valdez, who would be a nice DH vs RHPs.

 

Having a platoon DH is not ideal, especially since both offer nothing on D, when they are not DH'ing, but they'd be way cheaper than Vladdy and may out OPS him in 2025.

[moonslav59]

2025 (assuming no O'Neill & DSmith)

 

C: Wong, McGuire/Teel

1B: Casas (Romy)

2B: Grissom/DHam/Romy/Valdez/Yorke

SS: Story (Rafaela/DHam/Romy/Mayer)

3B: Devers (Romy)

LF: Duran (Ref)

CF: Rafaela/Anthony

RF: Abreu (Anthony/Ref)

DH: Ref and Valdez platoon

 

While I think adding a RHB would help our offense, unless the guy adds to our defense, too, I'm not seeing the need as being as great as pitching.

 

[MADSTORK]

Do your homework! Better yet pink hats buy a ticket

 

Mayer

Yorke

BJordan

Anthony

Teel

Perales

Rodriquez

Dean

 

Breezelow must have gotten the memo, 14 of 20, 24 draft picks were Pitchers

Several are intriguing since they can command the zone which was a flaw under Orlando

What Crockett can do with them is another discussion

 

Spooge fest with Junior is laughable, ops is a concern as is his fat arse

Remember Pablo?

 

The move you make at the deadline is dead weight, trade off over-achievers for more pitching depth and continue the youth movement as I stated before with Yorke Mayer and Teel September 1st call ups

 

Those are the facts and the facts are undisputed

[moonslav59]

I'd trade a big 3 in a deadline deal. In fact I'd trade 2 top 4 like this...

 

Mayer (2)

Abreu (swap LHB OF for RHB OF)

Bleis (4)

any 2 from: Fitts, Sandlin, Winckowski, Valdez, Yorke, Lugo, Meidroth, Paulino, Castro

 

For

 

CF Luis Roberts Jr RHB ('25:$15M, '26:$20M club option ,'27:$20M club option)

LHP Garrett Crochet SP (2 arbs remaining)

 

1. L Duran LF

2. R Roberts CF

3. L Devers 3B

4. R O'Neill RF

5. L Casas 1B (D Smith bench LHB)

6. R Refsnyder- L Yoshida DH

7. L DHam- R Romy 2B

8. R Wong C (McGuire LHB)

9. R Rafaela SS

 

SP: Houck, Crawford, Crochet, Pivetta, Bello (Criswell- 6 man rotation/Long Releif)

RP: Jansen, Martin, Hendriks, Slaten, Bernardino, Kelly, Weissert

 

[mvp 78]

Do your homework! Better yet pink hats buy a ticket

 

Mayer

Yorke

BJordan

Anthony

Teel

Perales

Rodriquez

Dean

 

Breezelow must have gotten the memo, 14 of 20, 24 draft picks were Pitchers

Several are intriguing since they can command the zone which was a flaw under Orlando

What Crockett can do with them is another discussion

 

Spooge fest with Junior is laughable, ops is a concern as is his fat arse

Remember Pablo?

 

The move you make at the deadline is dead weight, trade off over-achievers for more pitching depth and continue the youth movement as I stated before with Yorke Mayer and Teel September 1st call ups

 

Those are the facts and the facts are undisputed

 

What do Noah Dean and Blaze Jordan have in common with the other guys listed?

[Hugh2]

What do Noah Dean and Blaze Jordan have in common with the other guys listed?

 

Well if you “do your homework” you would know now wouldn’t you?