April 10 Baltimore at Boston

[mvp 78]

A full year from Duran and O'Neill might make a dent.

 

I wouldn't count on a full year from O'Neill. Duran is the dropoff from Turner (23 HR, 86 R, 96 RsBI for the old folx). Duran is hot now, but I think he'll cool off at some point and will end up below Turner's 114 wRC+ from last year (it was closer to 130 during August).

[mvp 78]

I'm expecting overall improvements from last season from Casas, 2B (once Grissom gets going, and it was a black hole last year, so no problem) and Yoshida.

 

Interesting that you expect offensive improvements, but assume the starting rotation can't improve.

[mvp 78]

I'm betting that Rafaela will explode for a 2.5-3 month stretch after making some adjustments, until pitchers figure out another flaw to exploit. He's not Javier Baez up there, and the swing speed and power generation are there.

 

He has the same flaw he's always had. He chases everything near the plate. I wouldn't feed him any good pitches if I was the opposition. He swings at balls 6"s out of the zone every game. This causes him to either K or make lots of weak contact. He's never been able to fix that. We've been saying this for a long while now. More likely he has 2-3 good weeks than 2-3 good months.

[Dipre]

He has the same flaw he's always had. He chases everything near the plate. I wouldn't feed him any good pitches if I was the opposition. He swings at balls 6"s out of the zone every game. This causes him to either K or make lots of weak contact. He's never been able to fix that. We've been saying this for a long while now. More likely he has 2-3 good weeks than 2-3 good months.

 

Yeah, but something changes in his swing profile or selection after he acclimates to every level, and he starts producing. I expect the same to happen here, as he starts hitting some pitches slightly out of the zone that he's sitting on with authority, then pitchers will change pitch sequencing and he will fall off a cliff unless his swing selection actually improves, much like JBJ before him. Even though JBJ was less pitch selection and more moving parts with his swing, it's a valid comparison.

[moonslav59]

Interesting that you expect offensive improvements, but assume the starting rotation can't improve.

 

You think the rotation can improve?

[Dipre]

Interesting that you expect offensive improvements, but assume the starting rotation can't improve.

 

Oh no, I think it's already improved. But I think lack of depth and s***** defense will doom it. My bad if that's what it read like.

[mvp 78]

You think the rotation can improve?

 

From what they were in 2023? Yes.

[moonslav59]

From what they were in 2023? Yes.

 

Oh, OK. I thought the talk was about Rafaela improving on his start to 2024.

 

I guess his 74 wRC+ in 2023 needed improvement, as well, so I get your point, now.

 

I think we all expect the rotation to come back down to earth, but we have differing opinions on it being better or worse than 2023's. It certainly has upside potential.

[vegasbob]

Oddly considering how the Sox field, it is a team of DH's with a DH that can't hit. Go figure.

 

Did a lot of figuring and can only conclude that you are correct. We know that Yoshida was not totally overmatched in the first half last year, including a bit of power. But he also went through many stretches of the topped, soft groundball to the right side , especially in the second half.

 

The problem, imo, is that he either doesn't know how or refuses to adapt to the pitching or his swing path. Duran is hitting over .300 because he is going to left field a lot, which includes ground ball through the over-shifted infielders. I'm sure the coaches are talking to him, but how much does he or his interpreter get and understand. The DH role may not suit him at all mentally, and given his culture. The placement there may have been a huge disrespect/insult/loss of face which Japanese give much weight to.

Edited April 11, 2024 by vegasbob

[vegasbob]

The unconditional love for Missin' Grissom continues to flow like the proverbial fountain of youth for a phuquer who cannot get on the field. I hope he is great and I am not knocking his POTENTIAL but until he shows up he is useless. Edited April 11, 2024 by vegasbob

[moonslav59]

The unconditional love for Missin' Grissom continues to flow like the proverbial of youth for a phuquer who cannot get on the field. I hope he is great and I am not knocking his POTENTIAL but until he shows up he is useless.

 

Who is giving "unconditional love" to Grissom?

[Old Red]

Who is giving "unconditional love" to Grissom?

 

You give unconditional love to pretty much all prospects. Seabold was one of your favorites.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Pessimism > Optimism. Probably rightly so.

[dgalehouse]

There are usually some ebbs and flows to a baseball season. It is way too early in the season for all of the mood swings. Be patient. The Sox just dropped two games to a team that is considered to be one of the best. It's not a disaster. Overall, the Sox look to be a better team than most people expected. Be happy.

[Bellhorn04]

there are usually some ebbs and flows to a baseball season. It is way too early in the season for all of the mood swings. Be patient. The sox just dropped two games to a team that is considered to be one of the best. It's not a disaster. Overall, the sox look to be a better team than most people expected. Be happy.

 

lol

[Old Red]

There are usually some ebbs and flows to a baseball season. It is way too early in the season for all of the mood swings. Be patient. The Sox just dropped two games to a team that is considered to be one of the best. It's not a disaster. Overall, the Sox look to be a better team than most people expected. Be happy.

 

Exactly. If before the season they said the Sox would be 7-5 at this point in the season most would have been happy with that. The big swing in the mood swings are something else. Giddy to gloom, and doom in a second.

[Maxbialystock]

Did a lot of figuring and can only conclude that you are correct. We know that Yoshida was not totally overmatched in the first half last year, including a bit of power. But he also went through many stretches of the topped, soft groundball to the right side , especially in the second half.

 

The problem, imo, is that he either doesn't know how or refuses to adapt to the pitching or his swing path. Duran is hitting over .300 because he is going to left field a lot, which includes ground ball through the over-shifted infielders. I'm sure the coaches are talking to him, but how much does he or his interpreter get and understand. The DH role may not suit him at all mentally, and given his culture. The placement there may have been a huge disrespect/insult/loss of face which Japanese give much weight to.

 

Interesting take. I think it's Cora's job to find out if that's an issue. It's entirely possible he knows already and has decided that it's up to the player to adjust.

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly. If before the season they said the Sox would be 7-5 at this point in the season most would have been happy with that. The big swing in the mood swings are something else. Giddy to gloom, and doom in a second.

 

Losing Story for the whole year was kind of a big deal. This team needed a lot to go right to have a chance. When you see the lineups we're putting out there, with Pablo Reyes hitting 6th or better, you know this is a team with serious issues. The starting pitching has been much better than expected, that's where the optimism has mainly come from.

[Old Red]

Losing Story for the whole year was kind of a big deal. This team needed a lot to go right to have a chance. When you see the lineups we're putting out there, with Pablo Reyes hitting 6th or better, you know this is a team with serious issues. The starting pitching has been much better than expected, that's where the optimism has mainly come from.

 

Losing Story Land was a big blow to the D. I know the Red Sox were counting on Story’s RHB to produce in the middle of the lineup, but that was far from a certainty. The rest of the lineup looks pretty weak at the moment especially not getting much from Raffy, and GOshida has been mostly NOshida. Starting pitching has looked pretty good so far, but there is still a long ways to go in the season for it to hold up.

[Maxbialystock]

Absolutely fascinating game thread, which tells us a lot about what we want to talk about.

 

For starters, it's clear success is just boring. It certainly lacks angst. When the Sox win, the game thread is--and I'm exaggerating--just 2 or 3 pages. Ho hum. Or, better still, "ho hum, and I'll bet it doesn't last."

 

Now the Sox have lost their 2d in a row in a series--against the ascendant Orioles--regarded as an early indicator of just how good the 7-3 Sox were going into this series.

 

And the game thread is at 18 pages with no end in sight.

 

I'm as concerned as anyone else. The two starters, Bello and Crawford, went 5.1 and 5 innings and between them gave up 1 earned run in 10.1 innings. So the rotation still looks awfully good.

 

But the bullpen and the porous defense gave up 6 runs in the first game and 7 in the second. And the offense scored just 1 run in the first game. In the second, an excellent 5 runs in the first 5 innings, but nothing thereafter.

 

Tonight the Orioles go for a sweep with Rodriguez, who has 2 starts and given up 3 earned runs in 12.1 innings and has endured zero unearned runs. Whitlock also has 2 starts and just 1 ER in 9.1 innings. Weissert got the loss in the 1st game in which the Angels scored 2 unearned runs from a Devers error and won, 2-1.

[moonslav59]

Losing Story for the whole year was kind of a big deal. This team needed a lot to go right to have a chance. When you see the lineups we're putting out there, with Pablo Reyes hitting 6th or better, you know this is a team with serious issues. The starting pitching has been much better than expected, that's where the optimism has mainly come from.

 

Of course going 7-3 on a road trip that oftens kills us changes the mood towards brightness. We all knew once we lost 3 in a row or 5 out of 7 or something, the mood would shift on a dime. Just look at the game threads for minute by minute massive mood shifts.

 

Losing 2 in a row sucks, especially how we lost, last night, but I'm still finding things to watch that brings me enjoyment, even when we lose.

 

I loved watching Crawford's reaction, when he got the last out of the 5th. You can tell, it matters to him.

 

I hope Romy can surprise me, some more.

 

Some bonehead plays on D irked me, but I'm staying optimistic as long as I can.

[Maxbialystock]

Losing Story Land was a big blow to the D. I know the Red Sox were counting on Story’s RHB to produce in the middle of the lineup, but that was far from a certainty. The rest of the lineup looks pretty weak at the moment especially not getting much from Raffy, and GOshida has been mostly NOshida. Starting pitching has looked pretty good so far, but there is still a long ways to go in the season for it to hold up.

 

As I've said too many times already, Story was/is darn good at SS, but he could not prevent all the bonehead plays, leading to unearned runs, by the rest of the defense.

 

Rafaela, for example, has been awfully good in CF, but he also dropped an easy pop fly. When that combined with Valdez's dropping a throw to 2b, the Sox ended up yielding 4 unearned runs on a grand slam that never should have happened. The Sox lost 2-1 on 2 unearned runs caused by Devers misplay of a high hopper. Abreu let a slow roller got through his legs in RF, which advance 2 runners to 2b and 3b--allowed another unearned run.

[mvp 78]

Oh, OK. I thought the talk was about Rafaela improving on his start to 2024.

 

I guess his 74 wRC+ in 2023 needed improvement, as well, so I get your point, now.

 

I think we all expect the rotation to come back down to earth, but we have differing opinions on it being better or worse than 2023's. It certainly has upside potential.

 

On Rafaela, he needs to get to a 700 OPS but with that low BB rate, it'll be tough for him to get there. Right now, he's the bad version of JBJ but without the BB's. JBJ was a year in year out 90 wRC+ or better type guy and we had to hold our nose during some rough stretches.

[mvp 78]

There are usually some ebbs and flows to a baseball season. It is way too early in the season for all of the mood swings. Be patient. The Sox just dropped two games to a team that is considered to be one of the best. It's not a disaster. Overall, the Sox look to be a better team than most people expected. Be happy.

 

A reasonable post? On here?

[Bellhorn04]

A reasonable post? On here?

 

It was reasonable up until "Be happy".

[Old Red]

It was reasonable up until "Be happy".

 

What a difference 2 days, and 2 games have made. From glad to sad.

[Bellhorn04]

What a difference 2 days, and 2 games have made. From glad to sad.

 

I keep pointing out the recent season-ending injury to Story has a bearing on the mood and you keep dismissing it.

 

Also, before this series started I said the 7-3 start meant jack, so I wasn't really waving the pom-poms.

[dgalehouse]

It was reasonable up until "Be happy".

 

" Be happy" is always good advice.

[Bellhorn04]

" Be happy" is always good advice.

 

Right, just like the "Always look on the bright side of life" song in Monty Python.

[moonslav59]

On Rafaela, he needs to get to a 700 OPS but with that low BB rate, it'll be tough for him to get there. Right now, he's the bad version of JBJ but without the BB's. JBJ was a year in year out 90 wRC+ or better type guy and we had to hold our nose during some rough stretches.

 

Agreed.

 

I have faith he can get close to a 90 wRC+, maybe even better, at some point, but of course, it could just be wishful thinking.