Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations

[Hugh2]

You may be right...

 

soxprospects.com...

 

Defense: Red Sox believe he can stick in center field long-term, but others believe he ends up in a corner. Strong defensive instincts. Has played a strong center field so far, showing good reads off the bat and nice paths to the ball. Makes plays that a lot of center fielders cannot make. Ability to stay in center will depend on whether he can retain his athleticism as he matures. Potential above-average defensive profile.

 

I read this as, he can be average to fringe average in center, maybe passable at worse....but can be plus on the corners.

[notin]

I read this as, he can be average to fringe average in center, maybe passable at worse....but can be plus on the corners.

 

RF is the most likely place, despite Wilyer Abreu’s exciting season. The Sox have already shown dedication to Rafaela, and Duran has emerged as a star player.

 

I could see the Sox trying to get starting pitching with a package featuring Wilyer Abreu and Kristian Campbell this off-season. It might not land the young, cost-controlled ace everyone wants, but it should get a very good return nonetheless. This would free up RF for Roman Anthony…

[mvp 78]

For PITCHING!

 

The problem in a serious trade for serious talent is that you have to be willing to give quality to receive quality. Duran is an elite runner and offensive force. Rafaela is an elite outfielder with pop (and versatility). Anthony projects to have elite power.

 

If Breslow's farm directors can convince him that someone like Campbell or Montgomery or Bleis has a skillset to replace one of the above -- and soon -- then maybe he can finally make that painful but necessary deal from depth to vastly improve the MLB club.

 

I wasn't trying to suggest a trade in my post, just that Anthony's best use would be RF in this org.

 

Duran - LF

Rafaela - CF

Anthony - RF

Abreu - 4th OF

[mvp 78]

I read this as, he can be average to fringe average in center, maybe passable at worse....but can be plus on the corners.

 

He's very athletic and should be great in RF in Fenway.

[Hugh2]

Agreed with all. RF is probably Anthony’s best fit

[moonslav59]

He's very athletic and should be great in RF in Fenway.

 

Agreed, and IMO, Rafaela is so good in CF, I'd move Anthony to RF, even if he was a plus CF'er.

 

(There may be times we want to "rest" Rafaela vs a tough RHPs and go with Anthony in CF and Abreu in RF.)

 

I do think Anthony is a better CF'er than Abreu.

 

If Rafaela is sitting, do you put Anthony or Duran in CF, and Abreu or Anthony in RF or LF?

 

[mvp 78]

Agreed, and IMO, Rafaela is so good in CF, I'd move Anthony to RF, even if he was a plus CF'er.

 

(There may be times we want to "rest" Rafaela vs a tough RHPs and go with Anthony in CF and Abreu in RF.)

 

I do think Anthony is a better CF'er than Abreu.

 

If Rafaela is sitting, do you put Anthony or Duran in CF, and Abreu or Anthony in RF or LF?

 

 

Duran would be the backup CFer.

[Maxbialystock]

Duran would be the backup CFer.

 

Duran is nobody's backup, not with an OPS of .870 and leading the Sox with 240 total bases (Devers has 227). Funny thing, but he also has a DWAR of +1.6.

 

Anthony has yet to show he can hit MLB pitching--or AAA for that matter.

[mvp 78]

Duran is nobody's backup, not with an OPS of .870 and leading the Sox with 240 total bases (Devers has 227). Funny thing, but he also has a DWAR of +1.6.

 

Anthony has yet to show he can hit MLB pitching--or AAA for that matter.

 

I'm not saying he'd ride the bench otherwise. He's the starting LFer, but would be the backup CFer if Rafaela was out. Sheesh.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm not saying he'd ride the bench otherwise. He's the starting LFer, but would be the backup CFer if Rafaela was out. Sheesh.

 

Understand your "sheesh." However, my point is that historically the Sox have preferred good bats all around the outfield. Also the infield.

 

So to me the sure things in the outfield are the good bats--Duran, Abreu, Ref, and O'Neill.

 

Next year the infield competition could be fierce with Story back and possibly Mayer promoted to Boston. Plus Casas at 1b and Devers at 3b. Plus competition from Grissom, Gonzalez, Hamilton, and even Sogard.

 

Rafaela is hands down the most versatile Sox defender because he's good at the two toughest positions, CF and SS. But he is not yet a plus hitter.

[Bellhorn04]

Understand your "sheesh." However, my point is that historically the Sox have preferred good bats all around the outfield. Also the infield.

 

So to me the sure things in the outfield are the good bats--Duran, Abreu, Ref, and O'Neill.

 

Next year the infield competition could be fierce with Story back and possibly Mayer promoted to Boston. Plus Casas at 1b and Devers at 3b. Plus competition from Grissom, Gonzalez, Hamilton, and even Sogard.

 

Rafaela is hands down the most versatile Sox defender because he's good at the two toughest positions, CF and SS. But he is not yet a plus hitter.

 

But Rafaela is 2nd on the team in AB's.

[notin]

Understand your "sheesh." However, my point is that historically the Sox have preferred good bats all around the outfield. Also the infield.

 

So to me the sure things in the outfield are the good bats--Duran, Abreu, Ref, and O'Neill.

 

Next year the infield competition could be fierce with Story back and possibly Mayer promoted to Boston. Plus Casas at 1b and Devers at 3b. Plus competition from Grissom, Gonzalez, Hamilton, and even Sogard.

 

Rafaela is hands down the most versatile Sox defender because he's good at the two toughest positions, CF and SS. But he is not yet a plus hitter.

 

Not so sure we see Mayer up before Story gets hurt again. Unless Grissom just cannot get going again, or gets dealt…

Edited August 6, 2024 by notin

[Maxbialystock]

But Rafaela is 2nd on the team in AB's.

 

Yes he is. I also ran across an article that says Rafaela is in the hunt for ROY, in part because he leads or is close to the top in several hitting categories.

[moonslav59]

But Rafaela is 2nd on the team in AB's.

 

And that guy, Duran is now one hell-of-a defender!

[moonslav59]

I really think we have to set things up for 2025 with Rafaela viewed as the FT CF'er, and this is not just about last night's catch. The guy is flat out awesome in CF, and below average at SS on D. I'm okay with going into 2025 with rafaela as the 4th or 5th string SS (or even 2Bman,) but that should be an emergency situation worse than even 2024 was.

 

Beginning with Rafaela in CF, that forces Duran to be the FT LF'er, because his arm is not a Fenway RF arm. That's 2 slots in the OF filled for 2025, right now- in my book.

 

Assuming no O'Neill or O'Neill replacement, that leaves RF and DH to find enough PAs for these guys:

 

L Yoshida (should only DH or platoon DH or be traded)

L Abreu (kills RHPs and could use more consistent D in RF)

R Refsnyder (should really DH or play Fenway LF or Yankee Stadium RF.)

L Anthony (may start 2025 in AAA and "solve the problem" by staying there, but eventually a squeeze will happen.

 

If Refsnyder bolts after 2025, we'll have a very solid OF, but all will be lefties. That may not be a major problem, if they all keep doing so well. but Abreu need to prove he can hit LHPs. Maybe Campbell can play LF by the start 2026, but then how do we play everyone without moving Duran to CF and Rafaela to RF and then what about Anthony.

 

I'll say it again: we are loaded and will be overloaded in the OF. We have serious needs building up our staff and an owner that seems reluctant on spending on top pitchers- large and long. We should trade an LHB OF'er, not named Duran, this winter.

[notin]

I really think we have to set things up for 2025 with Rafaela viewed as the FT CF'er, and this is not just about last night's catch. The guy is flat out awesome in CF, and below average at SS on D. I'm okay with going into 2025 with rafaela as the 4th or 5th string SS (or even 2Bman,) but that should be an emergency situation worse than even 2024 was.

 

Beginning with Rafaela in CF, that forces Duran to be the FT LF'er, because his arm is not a Fenway RF arm. That's 2 slots in the OF filled for 2025, right now- in my book.

 

Assuming no O'Neill or O'Neill replacement, that leaves RF and DH to find enough PAs for these guys:

 

L Yoshida (should only DH or platoon DH or be traded)

L Abreu (kills RHPs and could use more consistent D in RF)

R Refsnyder (should really DH or play Fenway LF or Yankee Stadium RF.)

L Anthony (may start 2025 in AAA and "solve the problem" by staying there, but eventually a squeeze will happen.

 

If Refsnyder bolts after 2025, we'll have a very solid OF, but all will be lefties. That may not be a major problem, if they all keep doing so well. but Abreu need to prove he can hit LHPs. Maybe Campbell can play LF by the start 2026, but then how do we play everyone without moving Duran to CF and Rafaela to RF and then what about Anthony.

 

I'll say it again: we are loaded and will be overloaded in the OF. We have serious needs building up our staff and an owner that seems reluctant on spending on top pitchers- large and long. We should trade an LHB OF'er, not named Duran, this winter.

 

Rafaela should be full time CF by then, with either Story or Mayer handling SS…

[moonslav59]

Rafaela should be full time CF by then, with either Story or Mayer handling SS…

 

Rafaela should be the FT CF'er, next year- a full year before ref's control years run out.

 

The middle IF should take care of itself, unless one of two things happen:

1. Story gets hurt, again.

2. Mayer is not what we hope he is.

 

Our 2B could be fine with Story or Mayer, or with these 3-4 guys fighting it out or platooning 2B:

 

DHam-Romy

Grissom-Sogard

 

I kinda like a Mayer at SS and Story at 2B combo, with DHam and Romy as UT. If Grissom beats out Romy, fine.

[mvp 78]

But Rafaela is 2nd on the team in AB's.

 

3rd in PA's because he can't take a walk.

[mvp 78]

Only Valdez and McGuire have lower OBPs than Rafaela's 288 (100 PA's and above). There's a reason he remains the 9th hitter.

[mvp 78]

Yes he is. I also ran across an article that says Rafaela is in the hunt for ROY, in part because he leads or is close to the top in several hitting categories.

 

He is not really in the hunt.

[notin]

He is not really in the hunt.

 

Rafaela is tied for 23rd among all AL rookies in fWAR. He’s tied for fifth on the Red Sox alone, with Cam Booser and trailing Abreu, Slaten, Criswell, and Hamilton

 

I just don’t see him as a legitimate ROY candidate…

Edited August 7, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

Only Valdez and McGuire have lower OBPs than Rafaela's 288 (100 PA's and above). There's a reason he remains the 9th hitter.

 

While true, I think even you would have to say Rafaela has exceeded expectations on offense, this year. (maybe not on D.)

 

He had serious issues with high K rates and high chase rates all through the minors, and we knew they must have been working with him to improve in that area.

 

I also think we have to take into account his awful start to the season, at the plate.

 

.463 on APR 26

.597 as late as JUN 5!

 

Here is one way to breakdown his season:

 

.463 in 97 PAs to start the season

.710 from 4/27 to 6/5 (125 PAs) & Under .600 at the 222 PA mark of the season is a significant sample size

.824 in his last 197 PAs, which is a bigger sample size than the two above. It's not definitive, but it is pretty good and growing longer.

 

Another view:

.586 first 203 PAs

.814 last 216 PAs

 

We don't know what he will do, going forward, and he will have to make adjustments to the adjustments league pitchers make on approaching him.

 

It's easy to say, "He needs to learn to be disciplined and not chase so many bad pitches," but I'm not so sure that is the solutions. For one thing, we are not sure he can do that without messing up his swing and mindset. I'm not comparing him to Devers, here, but many wanted him to change his approach, too, and of course all batters have made adjustments over their careers, but do not think he has made any major adjustments to his approach. He still swings at some pitches outside the zone, and some go for homers. I'm just not sure "change" is always a solution.

 

That being said, I wish he could/would be more selective, but if that changes his approach, radically, it might not be for the good.

 

I'd be happy with .700 and fewer unforced errors from Rafaela, going forward. .725 to .750 is now above the mean in MLB, and would be very nice from him. .750+ would be great.

[Hugh2]

Rafaela is tied for 23rd among all AL rookies in fWAR. He’s tied for fifth on the Red Sox alone, with Cam Booser and trailing Abreu, Slaten, Criswell, and Hamilton

 

I just don’t see him as a legitimate ROY candidate…

 

Not sure how much of a chance he really has, but his lagging Fwar is lacking (or at least partially) due to his early struggles at SS. Which, he was there for necessity and probably better than other options they had at the time. Kind of unfair to him but it is what it is.

[Bellhorn04]

Awards like ROY are pretty meaningless anyway.

[Hugh2]

Ceddanne has a much higher OBP in the second half, but with lower walk rate. Barely 2%.

 

It's because hes dropping hits and getting hit.

[mvp 78]

@SmittyOnMLB

The Red Sox felt good about trading Alex Verdugo because they believed in Wilyer Abeu.

 

Abreu has more extra-base hits (38) than Verdugo (35) in 159 fewer plate appearances.

[mvp 78]

Rafaela is tied for 23rd among all AL rookies in fWAR. He’s tied for fifth on the Red Sox alone, with Cam Booser and trailing Abreu, Slaten, Criswell, and Hamilton

 

I just don’t see him as a legitimate ROY candidate…

 

In a different year, he'd be in the conversation. He's not even the best rookie on his team.

[notin]

In a different year, he'd be in the conversation. He's not even the best rookie on his team.

 

If he played CF and not SS, he might find more chatter…

[mvp 78]

Ceddanne has a much higher OBP in the second half, but with lower walk rate. Barely 2%.

 

It's because hes dropping hits and getting hit.

 

Not going to get worked up over a 17 game sample. However, it's like 339 since May 25th (60 Games). This is about the same as Dom Smith's over the same period. Lower than Masa's since coming back from injury.

[mvp 78]

If he played CF and not SS, he might find more chatter…

 

And if he wasn't horrendous from 4/1 - 5/15.