A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

If they both have good years, who would you rather have playing for you?

 

Sale for 2024, but I'll take 5 years of a very good Grissom over 1 year of an excellent Sale is a punt season.

[cp176]

Sale for 2024, but I'll take 5 years of a very good Grissom over 1 year of an excellent Sale is a punt season.

 

Not me i guess. I think that I could find a good singles hitting second baseman who can field the ball. I think that we might already have one or two of those guys just kind of hanging around. I would love to have that guy who might be one of the best left handed pitchers of all time taking that ball to the mound with him. Unlikely scenarios in both cases I guess but that would be my preference and I wouldn't care at all about age or years of service time.

[moonslav59]

Not me i guess. I think that I could find a good singles hitting second baseman who can field the ball. I think that we might already have one or two of those guys just kind of hanging around. I would love to have that guy who might be one of the best left handed pitchers of all time taking that ball to the mound with him. Unlikely scenarios in both cases I guess but that would be my preference and I wouldn't care at all about age or years of service time.

 

I think years of team control is very important and valuable. We have seen what happens when team control runs out of our best players- they go and we don't replace them, too often.

 

On Grissom. I see him as being a much better prospect than Yorke or DHam- the only two guys we have that are MLB ready for the all important 2024 season. I also see him as a 2Bman who can hit 15-20 HRs in 2024, and maybe more as he matures.

 

The guy averages 65 XBHs per 162 games in the minors w 30 SBs. He was an okay defender at SS, which should mean he ends up plus on D at 2B, after an adjustment period.

 

I'm a hug Sale fan. I hated to see him traded. I think he might have a great season, but I've felt like that for many years without seeing much success. I like the extension the Braves gave him, and if we had extended him, I might feel different about the trade, but I doubt we would have done that.

 

I'm not happy Sale is gone. I am very happy with Grissom's promise, and if can be okay, this year, good next year and very good for 3 more, I think it's a good trade.

 

I also think the outlook for our 2024 season plays a role in my choice. If we sign Monty, I will like the Sale-Grissom trade less, because I would not view 2024 as a punt season, anymore.

 

[notin]

Not me i guess. I think that I could find a good singles hitting second baseman who can field the ball. I think that we might already have one or two of those guys just kind of hanging around. I would love to have that guy who might be one of the best left handed pitchers of all time taking that ball to the mound with him. Unlikely scenarios in both cases I guess but that would be my preference and I wouldn't care at all about age or years of service time.

 

I get the logic, and I probably take one year of the 2017 Sale over 10 years of Grissom. I just have my doubts that Sale is that pitcher any more, and also that he is going to get much better over the rest of his career. Corey Kluber had an impressive career at one point as well, and in fact his career at Sale's age stacks up pretty well with Sale's on some metrics. Granted, he is 3 years older, but also didn't develop his significant injury history until he was about Sale's current age, where as Sale has has issues for the past 5 years.

 

Of course, I assume Atlanta probably did some sort of physical before they extended him, but I can see plenty of reasons to be cautious with the 2024 version of Chris Sale...

[cp176]

I get the logic, and I probably take one year of the 2017 Sale over 10 years of Grissom. I just have my doubts that Sale is that pitcher any more, and also that he is going to get much better over the rest of his career. Corey Kluber had an impressive career at one point as well, and in fact his career at Sale's age stacks up pretty well with Sale's on some metrics. Granted, he is 3 years older, but also didn't develop his significant injury history until he was about Sale's current age, where as Sale has has issues for the past 5 years.

 

Of course, I assume Atlanta probably did some sort of physical before they extended him, but I can see plenty of reasons to be cautious with the 2024 version of Chris Sale...

 

it was a very hypothetical question based on a very young untested second baseman as opposed to that guy - vintage Chris Sale. Knowing that there is anyone who would go with the first option tells me that we don't tend to operate on the same page much of the time. i agree with you on this one.

[moonslav59]

I get the logic, and I probably take one year of the 2017 Sale over 10 years of Grissom. I just have my doubts that Sale is that pitcher any more, and also that he is going to get much better over the rest of his career. Corey Kluber had an impressive career at one point as well, and in fact his career at Sale's age stacks up pretty well with Sale's on some metrics. Granted, he is 3 years older, but also didn't develop his significant injury history until he was about Sale's current age, where as Sale has has issues for the past 5 years.

 

Of course, I assume Atlanta probably did some sort of physical before they extended him, but I can see plenty of reasons to be cautious with the 2024 version of Chris Sale...

 

The extension wasn't for huge money.

 

While Grissom's value is highly speculative, in nature, Sale has gotten to the point where his value is highly speculative, too, and it's 1 year vs 5.

[moonslav59]

it was a very hypothetical question based on a very young untested second baseman as opposed to that guy - vintage Chris Sale. Knowing that there is anyone who would go with the first option tells me that we don't tend to operate on the same page much of the time. i agree with you on this one.

 

If we were talking vintage Sale, I'd take Sale, easily. I'd also think we'd make the playoffs in 2024.

[cp176]

If we were talking vintage Sale, I'd take Sale, easily. I'd also think we'd make the playoffs in 2024.

 

I'm not sure that even a vintage Sale would push us over the top but it would at least give me some reason to be interested.

[dgalehouse]

If they both have good years, who would you rather have playing for you?

 

There is one big difference. Sale has shown that he is capable of it. Grissom has not. Maybe he will , but comparing him to Sale at this point makes no sense.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure that even a vintage Sale would push us over the top but it would at least give me some reason to be interested.

 

Maybe not, but I'd have legit hopes.

[cp176]

There is one big difference. Sale has shown that he is capable of it. Grissom has not. Maybe he will , but comparing him to Sale at this point makes no sense.

 

As much as i want to see this Grissom kid do really well, it is a trade that I never would have made. I'm giving the front office credit for just being fed up with paying for Sale while he has been unable to play. If that was the rationale, then to me it makes sense. Trying to justify it as a anything but makes none. they cut bait - i'm going with that. Bringing in an untried glove to play second regardless of the potential for any kind of serviceable pitcher just seems so foolish.

[moonslav59]

As much as i want to see this Grissom kid do really well, it is a trade that I never would have made. I'm giving the front office credit for just being fed up with paying for Sale while he has been unable to play. If that was the rationale, then to me it makes sense. Trying to justify it as a anything but makes none. they cut bait - i'm going with that. Bringing in an untried glove to play second regardless of the potential for any kind of serviceable pitcher just seems so foolish.

 

It does look like cutting costs was a major factor, and if it also allowed us to sign Giolito, then that helps, some.

Edited February 29, 2024 by moonslav59

[cp176]

It does look like cutting costs was a major factor, and if it also allowed us to sign Giolito, then that helps, some.

 

It troubles me that they couldn't just come out and say what most already know.

[moonslav59]

It troubles me that they couldn't just come out and say what most already know.

 

Agreed. They must think some fans can't figure it out, so saying it keeps the sham working for them.

[mvp 78]

It troubles me that they couldn't just come out and say what most already know.

 

1. cut cost

2. get a young 2b because their top 2b prospect kinda stinks

 

Not sure how to rank.

[moonslav59]

1. cut cost

2. get a young 2b because their top 2b prospect kinda stinks

 

Not sure how to rank.

 

Where do you think Grissom would be placed in our prospect rankings, if he still was one?

 

Of course, Jeter Downs was ranked highly, at one point.

[mvp 78]

Where do you think Grissom would be placed in our prospect rankings, if he still was one?

 

Of course, Jeter Downs was ranked highly, at one point.

 

SoxProspects said he'd probably be 3rd or 4th.

[moonslav59]

SoxProspects said he'd probably be 3rd or 4th.

 

Agreed. Close to Rafaela.

[cp176]

SoxProspects said he'd probably be 3rd or 4th.

 

Interesting to me that Yorke is sixth on the prospects list.

[dgalehouse]

I am not smart enough to run a website. But if I was, I would put out my own rankings on everything. " The Official Galehouse Rankings." They couldn't be any lamer than what we see these days. (So and so is ranked 7th.) Fan, " I would have him 5th or 6th at least."

[Old Red]

I am not smart enough to run a website. But if I was, I would put out my own rankings on everything. " The Official Galehouse Rankings." They couldn't be any lamer than what we see these days. (So and so is ranked 7th.) Fan, " I would have him 5th or 6th at least."

Like these rankings are the gospel.

[cp176]

I am not smart enough to run a website. But if I was, I would put out my own rankings on everything. " The Official Galehouse Rankings." They couldn't be any lamer than what we see these days. (So and so is ranked 7th.) Fan, " I would have him 5th or 6th at least."

 

You sound like you have experience as a financial consultant.

[cp176]

Like these rankings are the gospel.

 

Hey - throw enough crap against that old wall something is likely to stick.

[cp176]

I was actually trying to make a point. if your sixth best prospect is a young second baseman why in the hell would you trade for another who may or may not be able to field the position.

[notin]

I was actually trying to make a point. if your sixth best prospect is a young second baseman why in the hell would you trade for another who may or may not be able to field the position.

 

It’s hard for any team to have six prospects that they can count on. Yorke hasn’t been particularly impressive since A ball. He may not have a future starting any time soon…

[moonslav59]

It’s hard for any team to have six prospects that they can count on. Yorke hasn’t been particularly impressive since A ball. He may not have a future starting any time soon…

 

We all know many of the highest ranked prospects never pan out or end up as role players or journeymen. While soxprospects.com has done a pretty good job with its rankings, there have been plenty of major swings and misses.

 

All-in-all, I'd rather have more highly ranked prospects than not.

 

I like the chances that 2 out of our top 3 prospects (Anthony, Teel or Mayer) will end up being very solid players to much better than that. I think the odds one does not do well is higher than all 3 doing well, but I like the odds one 2 being good to excellent.

 

The next 4-10 slots is a pretty big drop off. Maybe just 1-2 of those 6 amount to anything special.

 

I'm not sure if this is being a homer or a realist.

[mvp 78]

Interesting to me that Yorke is sixth on the prospects list.

 

Too high IMO.

[mvp 78]

I am not smart enough to run a website. But if I was, I would put out my own rankings on everything. " The Official Galehouse Rankings." They couldn't be any lamer than what we see these days. (So and so is ranked 7th.) Fan, " I would have him 5th or 6th at least."

 

Cool.

[mvp 78]

I was actually trying to make a point. if your sixth best prospect is a young second baseman why in the hell would you trade for another who may or may not be able to field the position.

 

Yorke is already taking reps in OF and wasn’t succeeding in AA. He also has a lengthy injury history.

[mvp 78]

We all know many of the highest ranked prospects never pan out or end up as role players or journeymen. While soxprospects.com has done a pretty good job with its rankings, there have been plenty of major swings and misses.

 

All-in-all, I'd rather have more highly ranked prospects than not.

 

I like the chances that 2 out of our top 3 prospects (Anthony, Teel or Mayer) will end up being very solid players to much better than that. I think the odds one does not do well is higher than all 3 doing well, but I like the odds one 2 being good to excellent.

 

The next 4-10 slots is a pretty big drop off. Maybe just 1-2 of those 6 amount to anything special.

 

I'm not sure if this is being a homer or a realist.

 

Not every prospect works out. Even great AAA players flame out in MLB. There’s no exact science. We are lucky to have them though. There aren’t many other teams that have a website like that devoted to prospects that is painstakingly detailed. Those guys travel to see every stateside Sox prospect and talk to many people in the industry. They aren’t just scouting boxscores.