A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Duran Is The Man]

Guthrie was DFA'd 3 times last year. Good chance he's DFA'd this year! He's definitely towards the bottom of the 40 man. Yu Chang of the OF?

 

MVP...help me understand them signing this guy. he was DFA'd 3X so obviously he's not MLB material. is the Sox farm system so barren that they need this guy to temporarily fill a hole? or do the morons in the FO think they can somehow make this good enough to play for the Sox?

[mvp 78]

MVP...help me understand them signing this guy. he was DFA'd 3X so obviously he's not MLB material. is the Sox farm system so barren that they need this guy to temporarily fill a hole? or do the morons in the FO think they can somehow make this good enough to play for the Sox?

 

They need a utility guy in AAA because Fitzy was taken in Rule 5 and if there's an injury to the OF, he'd be the first guy to come up. I think this means they are likely to not sign an OFer and are going to have Rafaela and Abreu on the Opening Day roster.

 

It also gives them additional roster security if they move Duran/Rafaela. The other OFers are Mark Contreras (MiLB deal with MLB experience), Corey Rosier (mid defender, offense wasn't great in AAA) and Eddy Alvarez (journeyman type). Guthrie is a step up from those guys in case of injury to someone on the main roster. He'd be a guy you'd call up to sit on the bench for the most part. Defensive replacement in the late innings or something.

[mvp 78]

Once Roman is called up to AAA this year, one of these guys is going to get waived.

[moonslav59]

Once Roman is called up to AAA this year, one of these guys is going to get waived.

 

Or someone else- or someone to the IL.

[notin]

MVP...help me understand them signing this guy. he was DFA'd 3X so obviously he's not MLB material. is the Sox farm system so barren that they need this guy to temporarily fill a hole? or do the morons in the FO think they can somehow make this good enough to play for the Sox?

 

He was DFAd three times but he was also claimed two times.

 

He's one of those organizational fillers teams want to have, probably due to his versatility, but no one wants to dedicate a 40 man roster spot to him. And so far the Sox have not given him one, either. As he was signed on a minor league deal, he really is not in position to be a factor on the 2024 Red Sox one way or the other. He is also clearly behind Hamilton right now, because Hamilton is on the 40 man. Of the two, Hamilton is actually eligible to open the season in Boston whereas Guthrie currently is not.

 

That Guthrie has garnered this much attention on this board speaks louder volumes about the Sox inactivity this off-season than anything else we have talked about to date...

[mvp 78]

Or someone else- or someone to the IL.

 

When I've looked at previous year's rosters and have seen guys like Josh Ockimey, Jeremy Barfield, Marcus Wilson and Bryce Brentz hang around for years without ever really needing to play. All these guys mentioned today don't matter. They are completely fungible.

[notin]

They need a utility guy in AAA because Fitzy was taken in Rule 5 and if there's an injury to the OF, he'd be the first guy to come up. I think this means they are likely to not sign an OFer and are going to have Rafaela and Abreu on the Opening Day roster.

 

It also gives them additional roster security if they move Duran/Rafaela. The other OFers are Mark Contreras (MiLB deal with MLB experience), Corey Rosier (mid defender, offense wasn't great in AAA) and Eddy Alvarez (journeyman type). Guthrie is a step up from those guys in case of injury to someone on the main roster. He'd be a guy you'd call up to sit on the bench for the most part. Defensive replacement in the late innings or something.

 

 

Eddy Alvarez is also on the short list of athletes that have medaled in both the winter and summer Olympics, and one of only 3 Americans to do so. Right now, his biggest contribution is as part of a trivia answer...

[moonslav59]

When I've looked at previous year's rosters and have seen guys like Josh Ockimey, Jeremy Barfield, Marcus Wilson and Bryce Brentz hang around for years without ever really needing to play. All these guys mentioned today don't matter. They are completely fungible.

 

Agreed. I think they saw weak depth in AAA and just added a fungible guy like Guthrie. It's done all the time, by every team, every year.

 

Who know who will be let go from AAA when needed? It could be any of 5-8 players.

 

How many players on the IL can make an impact, too.

 

Our MI depth looks like ...

EValdez (horrible D and can only pretend to play 2B)

Yorke (questionable D at 2B & can't play anywhere else)

DHam (questionable D at SS & 2B, no bat, has speed)

Meidroth (3B only- unknown ML skills)

 

Our OF depth at AAA:

Abreu or Rafaela (if they are not in MLB)

Contreras & Rosier? (LOL)

 

Guthrie offers some depth in both areas. That's it.

[mvp 78]

Yorke's defense is passable at 2b now.

 

Meidroth barely hit at AA.

 

Valdez is fine as a platoon only DH, but Sox really don't need to waste that roster spot.

 

The talent looks better at AAA than it has in the past few years and it should get better later this season and next year.

[notin]

Agreed. I think they saw weak depth in AAA and just added a fungible guy like Guthrie. It's done all the time, by every team, every year.

 

Who know who will be let go from AAA when needed? It could be any of 5-8 players.

 

How many players on the IL can make an impact, too.

 

Our MI depth looks like ...

EValdez (horrible D and can only pretend to play 2B)

Yorke (questionable D at 2B & can't play anywhere else)

DHam (questionable D at SS & 2B, no bat, has speed)

Meidroth (3B only- unknown ML skills)

 

Our OF depth at AAA:

Abreu or Rafaela (if they are not in MLB)

Contreras & Rosier? (LOL)

 

Guthrie offers some depth in both areas. That's it.

 

Guthrie is Worcester depth. He's inconsequential. Teams make moves like this every year. In 2018, Dombrowski signed guys like Ivan DeJesus Jr, Mike Olt and Bill Selsky. We just didn't care because he made other far bigger moves that buried these deep into the crevasses where they belonged...

[notin]

Yorke's defense is passable at 2b now.

 

Meidroth barely hit at AA.

 

Valdez is fine as a platoon only DH, but Sox really don't need to waste that roster spot.

 

The talent looks better at AAA than it has in the past few years and it should get better later this season and next year.

 

Valdez is likely best served as trade bait for a small budget team in need of a DH. Oakland, Milwaukee or Pittsburgh, for example...

[mvp 78]

Valdez is likely best served as trade bait for a small budget team in need of a DH. Oakland, Milwaukee or Pittsburgh, for example...

 

Our main competitors these days.

 

COLORADO ROCKIES EAST.

[notin]

Our main competitors these days.

 

COLORADO ROCKIES EAST.

 

The Colorado Rockies West are another team that might consider Valdez. Of course, whatever he fetches in a trade will very likely not be a major piece..

[mvp 78]

The Colorado Rockies West are another team that might consider Valdez. Of course, whatever he fetches in a trade will very likely not be a major piece..

 

Per BTV:

 

Valdez to COR

 

for

 

Comp Bal Pick A

Jackson Cox

[moonslav59]

 

Meidroth barely hit at AA.

 

 

He did walk, a lot.

 

.255 BA

 

.386 OBP at AA

[moonslav59]

Per BTV:

 

Valdez to COR

 

for

 

Comp Bal Pick A

Jackson Cox

 

I think Valdez can become a decent MLB hitter. A couple years ago, he was one of the best hitters in the minors. I think only 2 hitters had more PAs and a higher OPS than he did.

 

I just don't see a slot on the Sox.

[mvp 78]

He did walk, a lot.

 

.255 BA

 

.386 OBP at AA

 

How about that SLG? If he doesn't have Abreu's pop, it's not going to work out for him.

[mvp 78]

I think Valdez can become a decent MLB hitter. A couple years ago, he was one of the best hitters in the minors. I think only 2 hitters had more PAs and a higher OPS than he did.

 

I just don't see a slot on the Sox.

 

He's an MLB platoon hitter for sure. He can't hit LHP at all. He can't field any position.

[notin]

Per BTV:

 

Valdez to COR

 

for

 

Comp Bal Pick A

Jackson Cox

 

It's not a bad deal for multiple reasons...

[mvp 78]

It's not a bad deal for multiple reasons...

 

See, if we were really on the payroll, these BTV deals would be getting done!

[notin]

See, if we were really on the payroll, these BTV deals would be getting done!

 

Assuming Colorado is amenable. The biggest downside to Valdez, unlike Cox, is he requires a 40 man roster spot.

 

If I were on the payroll, I would have dealt Duran to SD for RHP Michael King by now. I honestly don't see San Diego not being interested in that deal...

[moonslav59]

Assuming Colorado is amenable. The biggest downside to Valdez, unlike Cox, is he requires a 40 man roster spot.

 

If I were on the payroll, I would have dealt Duran to SD for RHP Michael King by now. I honestly don't see San Diego not being interested in that deal...

 

I'm not sure COL has a big 40 man roster crunch. EValdez is probably better than their 38-40 slot players.

[notin]

I'm not sure COL has a big 40 man roster crunch. EValdez is probably better than their 38-40 slot players.

 

Maybe. But I can’t speak for them. I could see it being an issue…

[moonslav59]

He's an MLB platoon hitter for sure. He can't hit LHP at all. He can't field any position.

 

How are you so certain about his inability to hit LHPs?

 

2022

.868 combined levels

 

2023

.703 (43 ABs at AAA)

[mvp 78]

Assuming Colorado is amenable. The biggest downside to Valdez, unlike Cox, is he requires a 40 man roster spot.

 

If I were on the payroll, I would have dealt Duran to SD for RHP Michael King by now. I honestly don't see San Diego not being interested in that deal...

 

I agree on both accounts. It's specifically why I dealt Valdez for a non-40 man guy.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure COL has a big 40 man roster crunch. EValdez is probably better than their 38-40 slot players.

 

He's better than out 38-40 slot guys too.

[mvp 78]

Valdez:

 

393 OPS MLB in '23

703 OPS WOO in '23

559 OPS WOO in '22

 

I don't care about his inflated offensive numbers from TX. It's not a surprise that both he and Abreu so a decrease in production right after leaving hitter friendly MiLB parks in TX. Every scouting report on Valdez talks about his platoon issues.

[mvp 78]

Also, your listed '23 split is only for Corpus Christie.

[moonslav59]

Also, your listed '23 split is only for Corpus Christie.

 

OK. That's all I saw on MiLB.com.

 

Fair enough, but still all small sample size, including the CC one.

 

I don't doubt he better at platoon, but we cant know for sure, yet.

[moonslav59]

He's better than out 38-40 slot guys too.

 

Agreed, but we likely don't have a slot for him on the 26, unless there are 1-2 injuries, or reyes sucks.