A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

If I had to bet money (which I don't have, so I can't), just taking Breslow for his word at his presser, I'd say some sort of prospect blockbuster trade for Burnes or Cease is more likely than blowing his first budget on Ohtani or Yamamoto. That also won't prevent a low-level signing of a Lorenzen, later.

 

I'm hoping we trade for Cease or Burnes (if extended) and also a major signing or Yamamoto, Gray, Snell, Nola or Montgomery.

 

I doubt I get what I want.

[notin]

I'm hoping we trade for Cease or Burnes (if extended) and also a major signing or Yamamoto, Gray, Snell, Nola or Montgomery.

 

I doubt I get what I want.

 

But you might find you get what you need…

[moonslav59]

Per BTV, Kutter and Houck is fair value for Cease.

 

At least Cease has 2 years of control (2 arbs,) but unless we can extend him, I'm not sure I'd like giving up 2 pitchers with 4+ years of control, each.

 

I'd prefer giving Yorke plus Houck or Kutter.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm hoping we trade for Cease or Burnes (if extended) and also a major signing or Yamamoto, Gray, Snell, Nola or Montgomery.

 

I doubt I get what I want.

 

Maybe Breslow's Cubs connection to Stroman or Hendricks brings one of them over. If so, he must have a good reason; if not, he must have a bad reason -- either should give Sox fans some confidence in the new CBO...

[moonslav59]

But you might find you get what you need…

 

I rarely do, when it comes to Sox winters.

 

[harmony]

Maybe Breslow's Cubs connection to Stroman or Hendricks brings one of them over. If so, he must have a good reason; if not, he must have a bad reason -- either should give Sox fans some confidence in the new CBO...

The Chicago Cubs reportedly have exercised their 2024 option on Kyle Hendricks:

 

[notin]

At least Cease has 2 years of control (2 arbs,) but unless we can extend him, I'm not sure I'd like giving up 2 pitchers with 4+ years of control, each.

 

I'd prefer giving Yorke plus Houck or Kutter.

 

 

I imagine the White Sox (who have stated they plan to hold on to Cease) do not trade Cease without getting Roman Anthony at a minimum…

[harmony]

I'm hoping we trade for Cease or Burnes (if extended) and also a major signing or Yamamoto, Gray, Snell, Nola or Montgomery.

 

I doubt I get what I want.

Most fans don’t get what they want for their favorite teams.

 

Baseball forums are filled with wish lists.

[moonslav59]

I imagine the White Sox (who have stated they plan to hold on to Cease) do not trade Cease without getting Roman Anthony at a minimum…

 

That seems about right.

 

We don't really know how they value our players. I think BTV overvalues Yorke, but maybe the CWS like him a lot. Maybe they really like Houck or Crawford, too.

 

When you see what was given for Castillo and Lopez, it is pretty steep.

[moonslav59]

Most fans don’t get what they want for their favorite teams.

 

Baseball forums are filled with wish lists.

 

Indeed.

 

We do have some valuable pieces other teams will give up a lot to get.

[notin]

That seems about right.

 

We don't really know how they value our players. I think BTV overvalues Yorke, but maybe the CWS like him a lot. Maybe they really like Houck or Crawford, too.

 

When you see what was given for Castillo and Lopez, it is pretty steep.

 

 

The easiest way to use BTV is to start with the highest-valued acceptable prospect, rather than using two or more to build up value. Quality trumps quantity.

 

Unless you’re trading with Oakland. They seem to prefer quantity…

[moonslav59]

The easiest way to use BTV is to start with the highest-valued acceptable prospect, rather than using two or more to build up value. Quality trumps quantity.

 

Unless you’re trading with Oakland. They seem to prefer quantity…

 

Yes, that is true. I always try to give lower level prospects, but I almost always give away more value that we get back, thinking maybe that might work.

 

Most likely, it will not.

 

It's hard to know how many GMs might really like someone like Bleis, Rafaela or Yorke- more than what BTV gives them.

 

I do think, to get a major pitcher with 2+ years of control, we'd need to give up Mayer, Anthony or Teel.

 

If you had to part with one of these top 3 prospect, which one would it be?

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes, that is true. I always try to give lower level prospects, but I almost always give away more value that we get back, thinking maybe that might work.

 

Most likely, it will not.

 

It's hard to know how many GMs might really like someone like Bleis, Rafaela or Yorke- more than what BTV gives them.

 

I do think, to get a major pitcher with 2+ years of control, we'd need to give up Mayer, Anthony or Teel.

 

If you had to part with one of these top 3 prospect, which one would it be?

 

 

Surplus: Mayer.

 

Bloom drafted a pre-Monster Seat Green Monster screen full of BP home run balls also known as the Best Players Available. Is it really a stretch to project a few of those shortstops to actually become future shortstops?

 

From all reports, Teel is an authentic catcher who can hit, and Anthony is a legitimate power threat who can outfield. Neither grow on prospect trees these days.

 

Even if Mayer turns out to be Nomar, it's good to remember the Sox traded their greatest shortstop of all-time (career bWAR in Boston) and then won the World Series. They did not trade either of their second-best left fielders or catchers (Manny, Tek) before those two had two rings each (btw: neither of the best LF and C -- Ted, Pudge -- won any).

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, of those 3, Mayer seems the most tradeable.

[moonslav59]

BTV places these values on our prospects:

 

60 Mayer

42 Anthony

29 Bleis

18 Teel

17 Yorke

17 Rafaela

 

Recent Grads:

38 Casas

34 Bello

30 Duran

27 Crawford

[harmony]

Indeed.

 

We do have some valuable pieces other teams will give up a lot to get.

And vice versa.

[moonslav59]

And vice versa.

 

Indeed.

 

Us Sox fans see Teel as being worth way more than 18, but other teams have the same type prospects.

[moonslav59]

And vice versa.

 

I'm not sure how BTV determines who is "minors" vs "majors," but here are the top valued "minors" on some top AL teams:

 

Red Sox:

60 Mayer

42 Anthony

29 Bleis

18 Teel & 17 Yorke

 

Mariners:

19 Ford

19 Young

13 Gonzalez

11 Locklear

9 Clase, Emerson

 

O's

69 Holliday

44 Mayo

18 Basallo

9 Fabian & Bradfield

 

Rays

42 Williams

15 Taylor

8 Vasquez, Isaac & Ledbetter

 

NYY

16 Jones

14 Hampton

12 Arias

11 Thorpe

7 Lombard

 

HOU

8 Baez

7 Melton

7 Dezenzo

4 Mathews

3 Corona

 

TOR

34 Tiedmann

15 Martinez

9 Jimenez

9 Barger

9 Nimmala

 

MIN

48 Lee

46 Jenkins

20 Rodriguez

9 Festa

8 Mercedes

 

CLE

20 Manzardo

16 Espino

15 DeLauter

15 Brito

9 Valera

 

Only 3 of these teams have 2 players over 40 (BOS, BAL & MIN.)

Only 1 of these teams have 3 players over 29 (BOS.)

 

Edited November 7, 2023 by moonslav59

[notin]

MLBTR released their top 50 free agents with predictions. Each FA received 3 predictions (one from each contributing writer)

 

The Sox were mentioned for the following players:

 

Blake Snell

Eduardo Rodriguez

Mitch Garver

Mike Clevinger

Liam Hendriks

 

I might have missed one or two mentions.

 

Garver is the intriguing one for a RH bat; no one here has done much in the way of suggesting catcher upgrades that I have seen..

[moonslav59]

MLBTR released their top 50 free agents with predictions. Each FA received 3 predictions (one from each contributing writer)

 

The Sox were mentioned for the following players:

 

Blake Snell

Eduardo Rodriguez

Mitch Garver

Mike Clevinger

Liam Hendriks

 

I might have missed one or two mentions.

 

Garver is the intriguing one for a RH bat; no one here has done much in the way of suggesting catcher upgrades that I have seen..

 

Many catchers get about 360-440 PAs, a year, but he's never gotten over 360.

 

He's had very nice numbers at the plate, since 2019:

 

.251/.346/.508/.854

Per 650 PAs

.251 38 95

 

That would be a nice addition to the right side line-ups. We could trade or non tender McGuire.

 

Getting him and Duvall might be enough for the offense.

[moonslav59]

7 players get a QO ($20.325M):

 

Ohtani

Bellinger

Chapman

Gray

Hader

Nola

Snell

 

Baez opts IN

Wacha opts OUT

 

ERod and Stroman are FAs.

 

Team accepts option for Morton (ATL), Hendricks (CHC) and Berti (MIA.)

 

Beeks claimed off waivers by COL. Phillies claim Josh Fleming.

Edited November 7, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

If the Sox want to sign a top pitcher and not have the QO penalty, it might have to be:

 

Yamamoto (hefty posting fee)

Montgomery

ERod

 

Who is next?

Edited November 7, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Casas is a ROY finalist.

[Randy Red Sox]

Yes, of those 3, Mayer seems the most tradeable.

 

but the least of the ones I would trade. Sign Yamamoto and another SP in FA and be done with it.

[moonslav59]

Using MLBTR's projected salaries, who would you sign, if we have $70M to spend. (Add $9M if you trade Dugo or $5M for Urias for no salary in return.)

 

29M x 7 Snell (QO penalty)

25M x 9 Yamamoto (posting fee)

25M x 6 Montgomery

25M x 6 Nola (QO penalty)

25M x 6 Chapman (QO)

23M x 4 Gray (QO)

22M x 12 Bellinger (QO)

22M x 2 Giolito

22M x 2 Stroman

21M x 4 ERod

20M x 4 Teoscar H

20M x 2 JD

18M x 6 J Hader (QO)

18M x 4 Candelario

18M x 2 Maeda

17M x 5 Imanaga

16M x 1 J Turner

15M x 1 Montas & B Belt

15M x 3 Soler

14M x 1 Severino

14M x 3 Lugo

13M x 2 Clevinger, Kiermaier & Nick Martinez

13M x 3 Flaherty & Garver

12M x 1 T Anderson

12 x 2 A Chapman

12M x 3 Wacha

11M x 2 Lorenzen

10M x 2 H Bader

10M x 2 T Mahle

10M x 5 J-H Lee

10M x 4 J Hicks

9M x 2 A Rosario & Merrifield

6M x 2 L Hendriks

 

Duvall not in top 50.

 

I might like...

 

$25M x 9 Yamamoto

$25M x 6 Montgomery (no QO penalty)

$13M x 3 Garver

$12M x 3 Wacha

That's $75M. I'd trade Dugo, McGuire and see if we can squeeze Duvall under the $70M line. (Keep Urias.)

 

SP: Yamamoto, Montgomery, Bello, Wacha, Sale/Pivetta

LR: Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, Pivetta/Murphy

SR: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber/Bernardino

 

C: Garver, Wong

1B: Casas (Duvall/Devers)

2B: Urias, Reyes

SS: Story (Reyes)

3B: Devers (Urias)

LF: Duran/Refsnyder platoon (Abreu)

CF: Rafaela, Abreu

RF: Duvall (Abreu)

DH: Yoshida (Casas/Devers)

 

Edited November 7, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

but the least of the ones I would trade. Sign Yamamoto and another SP in FA and be done with it.

 

We need more than 1 solid SP'er.

 

IMO, Anthony and Teel are the two I'd keep.

 

It's not that I don't like Mayer, but those other two get me more excited.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Wondering if signing both Yamamoto and Imanaga would help their transitions to new country-language-menus-timezones-travel-cities-ballparks-schedules-mounds-baseballs-batters-coaches-teammates... and if Yoshida sharing first-year experiences, plus their familiarity with each other, help all three reach their MLB potential quicker...

 

... even despite brutal daily posts about them on talksox.com

[notin]

If the Sox want to sign a top pitcher and not have the QO penalty, it might have to be:

 

Yamamoto (hefty posting fee)

Montgomery

ERod

 

Who is next?

 

How much faith do you have in Giolito?

[Bellhorn04]

How much faith do you have in Giolito?

 

He hasn't been good at all the last 2 years.

[notin]

He hasn't been good at all the last 2 years.

 

So… not much. I can agree with that.

 

How about Tyler Mahle?