Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[harmony]

Based on what, harms?

One team is unlikely to invest that much money (and that many years) in the riskiest segment of the market.

[notin]

I'd take Nola for sure. He's more likely to pitch all year and pitch a Complete Game once in a while.

 

Not wild about Nola. I think he’s overrated. He certainly eats innings (567 IP and counting over the last 3 years), but his ERA+ over that span is 101. Granted, that a Philly defense isn’t doing him any favors…

[notin]

One team is unlikely to invest that much money (and that many years) in the riskiest segment of the market.

 

I hope the Sox don’t go all in for two top tier pitchers this off-season. The short term rewards might be favorable, but at some point it absolutely with 100% certainly will become Price-Sale redux. And next thing the Sox will be pawning off Roman Anthony in a trade just to entice some team to take on Blake Snell’s contract…

[notin]

Not wild about Nola. I think he’s overrated. He certainly eats innings (567 IP and counting over the last 3 years), but his ERA+ over that span is 101. Granted, that a Philly defense isn’t doing him any favors…

 

Ok worth pointing out Nola does possess a 3.35 FIP over that span. But over the same period of time, Sonny Gray has a 3.34 FIP. Gray will certainly be more expensive than what I would expect, but he will definitely be less expensive than Nola.

 

Take Gray over Nola…

[notin]

Last 3 years

 

Gray 3.34 FIP

Nola 3.35 FIP

Snell 3.38 FIP

 

 

That’s also the way I would expect to rank their contracts, starting with the cheapest…

[notin]

And throw in a Peralta with his 3.34 FIP…

[moonslav59]

Sale? His advanced numbers are not that bad. Not great but better than our other starters this year.

 

fWAR

 

Bello 2.1 148 IP

Crawford 1.9 118 IP

Sale 1.9 92.2 IP

 

It's not about his numbers, when he pitches. I'd put him at #3, if I knew he could give 140+ IP.

 

The guy just cannot be relied upon to stay healthy.

 

Planning on him to give even 26 starts is planning for failure after failure.

 

If he gives us 26-32, great! But, that should never be what we plan on. EVER!!!!

[Dipre]

I've changed my mind on Gray. I saw an interview where he revealed his poor results with the Yankees came from them forcing him to throw a lot more sliders in his sequencing, and he considers his slider to not be a pitch he has good command or control over, but rather a K pitch or a change of pace breaking ball. Looking at his stats and bottom-line results from both that season and that point forward, it makes sense. He's a guy they should pursue as a #2 option.

[notin]

SP: Peralta (for Mayer/Rafaela)

SP: Gray

SP: Bello

SP: Crawford

SP: Sale/Pivetta (when Sale is out due to getting struck by a meteor or from a nasty narwhal bite or whatever)

 

CL: Jansen

RP: Martin

RP: Winckowski

RP: Houck

RP: Whitlock

RP: Schreiber

RP: Bernardino

RP: Pivetta (FA or MiLB call up for Sale injury)

 

C: Wong

1b: Devers/Casas

2b: Urias

3b: Chapman

SS: Story

LF: Yoshida

CF: Duran

RF: Verdugo

DH: Casas/Devers

 

BN: McGuire

BN: Reyes

BN: Refsnyder

BN: (Defensive CF - maybe Taylor?)

 

 

Not wild about the OF defense in LF and CF. But it is a step up overall.

 

If you don’t like this lineup, good news. Less than 1% chance of it happening…

Edited September 20, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

I think our best chance at getting two of the top 30 or so SP'ers in MLB is to trade for one and outbid everyone else for another.

 

I can't see us paying bigtime for 2 FA SP'ers.

 

I suppose we might sign one top tier and one near the bottom of tier two, but even that is likely just a pipe dream.

 

I don't like trading top prospects, but I think we have to bite the bullet and find a GM who likes some of our top prospects as much or more than we do.

 

We need to guess right, twice:

1. Pick the right top prospect or two to trade.

2. Pick the right guy to trade for, and hopefully get him to extend.

 

The, #3, guess right on who to sign.

 

What's the chances we go 3 for 3?

If we get one wrong, it has to be #1, not #2 or #3.

 

It is one reason, I'd prefer we try and add 3 SP'ers, even if all are tier two.

 

One idea would be to limit the risk by signing a mid 30's or older pitcher to a shorter term deal.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

One idea would be to limit the risk by signing a mid 30's or older pitcher to a shorter term deal.

 

 

Uh... Chaim? Pink slip!

[Dipre]

Uh... Chaim? Pink slip!

 

Not all pitchers age the same, as you know. Had that mid-30's pitcher been Morton instead of Kluber, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

[moonslav59]

SP: Peralta (for Mayer/Rafaela)

SP: Gray

SP: Bello

SP: Crawford

SP: Sale/Pivetta (when Sale is out due to getting struck by a meteor or from a nasty narwhal bite or whatever)

 

CL: Jansen

RP: Martin

RP: Winckowski

RP: Houck

RP: Whitlock

RP: Schreiber

RP: Bernardino

RP: Pivetta (FA or MiLB call up for Sale injury)

 

C: Wong

1b: Devers/Casas

2b: Urias

3b: Chapman

SS: Story

LF: Yoshida

CF: Duran

RF: Verdugo

DH: Casas/Devers

 

BN: McGuire

BN: Reyes

BN: Refsnyder

BN: (Defensive CF - maybe Taylor?)

 

 

Not wild about the OF defense in LF and CF. But it is a step up overall.

 

If you don’t like this lineup, good news. Less than 1% chance of it happening…

 

SP: Peralta (for Mayer/Yorke/Drohan)

SP: Gray

SP: Bello

SP: Crawford

SP: Sale/Pivetta (when Sale is out due to getting struck by a meteor or from a nasty narwhal bite or whatever)

 

CL: Jansen

RP: Martin

RP: Winckowski

RP: Houck

RP: Whitlock

RP: Schreiber

RP: Bernardino

RP: Pivetta (FA or MiLB call up for Sale injury)

 

C: Wong

1b: Casas

2b: Urias

3b: Devers

SS: Story

LF: Duran

CF: Duvall/Rafaela

RF: Verdugo

DH: Yoshida

 

BN: McGuire

BN: Reyes

BN: Refsnyder

BN: OF- Abreu AAA

[moonslav59]

Uh... Chaim? Pink slip!

 

I'm not talking Kluber at $10M/1. I'm thinking...

 

$70M/2 Kershaw (36 y/o)

$25M/1 Morton (40)

$112M/4 Gray (34)

 

[Dipre]

Kershaw is not signing with anyone else. I'd take a flyer on either of the other two options though.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not talking Kluber at $10M/1. I'm thinking...

 

$70M/2 Kershaw (36 y/o)

$25M/1 Morton (40)

$112M/4 Gray (34)

 

 

I'm in on Gray, and actually don't expect anyone better... or for him to stay healthy by the end of his contract -- just like every other free agent pitcher since Wayne Garland signed with Cleveland for 10 years and $2.3 million!

 

Cleveland! Can you believe it... (which Joe marred for all skeptics by emphasizing the wrong word; can you believe it?)

 

Gray and Montgomery would be a major upgrade for a team with its eye on third-place in '24... that Sam Kennedy would never admit to, telling us the Sox are all in to bring a world championship to Boston (but which year, Sam?).

[notin]

SP: Peralta (for Mayer/Yorke/Drohan)

SP: Gray

SP: Bello

SP: Crawford

SP: Sale/Pivetta (when Sale is out due to getting struck by a meteor or from a nasty narwhal bite or whatever)

 

CL: Jansen

RP: Martin

RP: Winckowski

RP: Houck

RP: Whitlock

RP: Schreiber

RP: Bernardino

RP: Pivetta (FA or MiLB call up for Sale injury)

 

C: Wong

1b: Casas

2b: Urias

3b: Devers

SS: Story

LF: Duran

CF: Duvall/Rafaela

RF: Verdugo

DH: Yoshida

 

BN: McGuire

BN: Reyes

BN: Refsnyder

BN: OF- Abreu AAA

 

 

And if Milwaukee insist on Rafaela?

[moonslav59]

And if Milwaukee insist on Rafaela?

 

I'd look to give them Yorke and Abreu, but if it was him or nogo, I'd probably do it and then sign Duvall or trade Dugo & Yorke for a RH'd CF'er who can play D and hit okay

[moonslav59]

Kershaw is not signing with anyone else. I'd take a flyer on either of the other two options though.

 

Gray & Montgomery would do it for me, if we lose out on Yamamoto.

[Dipre]

I really like Montgomery.

[Bellhorn04]

One team is unlikely to invest that much money (and that many years) in the riskiest segment of the market.

 

That's fair.

[Bellhorn04]

I can't see them trading Mayer and Rafaela.

[Dipre]

I can't see them trading Mayer and Rafaela.

 

One or the other.

[moonslav59]

Gray & Montgomery would do it for me, if we lose out on Yamamoto.

 

Those two might put us over the first line, by themselves, unless we shed salary, somehow (trade Yoshi, Dugo or Sale?)

 

If the priority is to stay below the second line, we should have enough to sign Gray, Montgomery, Duvall and a very good LH'd RP'er. We can also pay Dugo & Pivetta's arb raises or even extend Dugo.

 

SP: Gray, Montgomery, Bello, Crawford, 1 from Pivetta/Sale/Houck

LR: Whitlock, 2 from Houck, Pivetta or Sale

SR: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Winckowski, Bernardino

C: Wong, McGuire

1B: Casas (Duvall/Devers)

2B: Urias, Reyes

SS: Story (Reyes)

3B: Devers (Urias)

LF: Duran, Refsnyder (Yoshida)

CF: Rafaela, Duvall

RF: Dugo (Duvall/Abreu)

DH: Yoshida

 

[harmony]

I'd look to give them Yorke and Abreu, but if it was him or nogo, I'd probably do it and then sign Duvall or trade Dugo & Yorke for a RH'd CF'er who can play D and hit okay

In the unlikely event the Brewers make Freddy Peralta available, the competition from others teams may push the trade price beyond the BTV estimates.

 

Or not.😉

[harmony]

I can't see them trading Mayer and Rafaela.

Then the Red Sox would need to set their sights lower in a trade for a starting pitcher.

 

The Sox are in a tough position.

[a700hitter]

How can you put Sale as the #1 with a straight face?

 

Even Clint Eastwood would be smirking.

I told you before that I am not putting him as number 1. I am just allocating a starting slot to him. That is not the rotation order.

[moonslav59]

I told you before that I am not putting him as number 1. I am just allocating a starting slot to him. That is not the rotation order.

 

Okay. Got it. I already recognized my mistake.

[notin]

I can't see them trading Mayer and Rafaela.

 

Totally depends on who they hire and what his budget is…

[Bellhorn04]

Then the Red Sox would need to set their sights lower in a trade for a starting pitcher.

 

The Sox are in a tough position.

 

They can spend big on one pitcher and trade for a lesser pitcher. All kinds of options. The Sox front office says we deserve a playoff team!