Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

DD's record of not trading anyone who turned into anything is just about clean, unless you're a big Manny Margot fan.

 

Travis Shaw was not really a prospect when traded, but he put up a couple season's of good numbers, and we got squat, but your point is a good one.

 

Kopech, Margot and Moncada have been okay, when healthy, but none look to be as good as Devers, Bello and Casas. Hell, Duran and Rafaela may end up better than each of these guys.

 

Espinal is the unsung one that got away (5.2 bWAR.)

 

Beeks looked like he might be good, but not so much, anymore.

 

Hell, as little as Bloom has traded away, Springs might be better than anyone DD traded.

[moonslav59]

I believe his ordering of the rotation was meant to be random.

 

Okay. It does look that way, but even 5 is too high.

[Bellhorn04]

Okay. It does look that way, but even 5 is too high.

 

Sale? His advanced numbers are not that bad. Not great but better than our other starters this year.

 

fWAR

 

Bello 2.1 148 IP

Crawford 1.9 118 IP

Sale 1.9 92.2 IP

[harmony]

They would be the consensus top 2 targets.

 

Next question - how much will it cost to win those auctions?

 

Has to be a cool half billion total (roughly).

 

I'd love it too, but hard to say if Henry is thinking that way.

The chances are nearly nil that one team will sign both Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

[mvp 78]

DD's record of not trading anyone who turned into anything is just about clean, unless you're a big Manny Margot fan.

 

Santiago Espinal was an All Star and put up 4.5 fWAR from 21-22.

 

I think that trade still worked in the 2018 Red Sox's favor though.

[mvp 78]

The chances are nearly nil that one team will sign both Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

 

There are a few posters on here that are going to be crushed by reality when the Sox don't come away with 2 "aces" or 3 starters or whatever. There's just not enough arms to go around for all the teams that want to sign pitchers.

[notin]

The chances are nearly nil that one team will sign both Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

 

Roughly the same as Boston has with either individual…

Edited September 20, 2023 by notin

[mvp 78]

Sale? His advanced numbers are not that bad. Not great but better than our other starters this year.

 

fWAR

 

Bello 2.1 148 IP

Crawford 1.9 118 IP

Sale 1.9 92.2 IP

 

He just can't stay healthy. If he could have stayed healthy, he would have had a shot to get into the HOF.

[notin]

There are a few posters on here that are going to be crushed by reality when the Sox don't come away with 2 "aces" or 3 starters or whatever. There's just not enough arms to go around for all the teams that want to sign pitchers.

 

Not to mention what happens 5 years from now when these pitchers need to be replaced by new “aces” but can’t be moved because they still have 5 years $150mil left on their deals…

[harmony]

I’d make that trade.

 

Milwaukee might, too. They’d at least consider it. Certainly losing Peralta is tough. But with Adames a year from free agency, they might not mind the insurance policy in Mayer. (Not sure about their SS prospects.). And Rafaela doesn’t need to fit in at any position.

 

It odd two very good prospects to give up, but the Sox do need pitching

That trade might be somewhat surprising against the backdrop that has the Brewers ranked third and the Red Sox 16th in MLB.com’s midseason farm system rankings:

 

MLB Pipeline's 2023 midseason farm system re-ranks

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Ranking farm systems -- comparing groups of a couple hundred prospects in 30 different organizations -- is, at best, a mostly subjective exercise, and at worst, all but impossible to do well. Yet the teams that place near the top in MLB Pipeline's biannual rankings almost always parlay their prospects

[Hugh2]

Not to mention what happens 5 years from now when these pitchers need to be replaced by new “aces” but can’t be moved because they still have 5 years $150mil left on their deals…

 

Because teams never go out and win world series when paying top notch starting pitchers into their 30's?

 

I think we have more of a chance of being Houston than we do Atlanta, maybe even LA for that matter.

[mvp 78]

Not to mention what happens 5 years from now when these pitchers need to be replaced by new “aces” but can’t be moved because they still have 5 years $150mil left on their deals…

 

That's why I wouldn't sign Snell. Yamamato is a probably depending on the deal because of his age. Snell at 10 years? Hell no.

[mvp 78]

Because teams never go out and win world series when paying top notch starting pitchers into their 30's?

 

I think we have more of a chance of being Houston than we do Atlanta, maybe even LA for that matter.

 

They would have to be smart and lucky with the signing.

[Hugh2]

That trade might be somewhat surprising against the backdrop that has the Brewers ranked third and the Red Sox 16th in MLB.com’s midseason farm system rankings:

 

MLB Pipeline's 2023 midseason farm system re-ranks

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Ranking farm systems -- comparing groups of a couple hundred prospects in 30 different organizations -- is, at best, a mostly subjective exercise, and at worst, all but impossible to do well. Yet the teams that place near the top in MLB Pipeline's biannual rankings almost always parlay their prospects

 

Milwaukee has the 20th ranked farm system to some in baseball and the Sox a top 5. They may just be very happy to get some prospects from a loaded Boston system to replenish their system.

[Hugh2]

They would have to be smart and lucky with the signing.

 

Isn't that everything in baseball? Any guy you sign can fall off a cliff, any guy you trade for can fall off a cliff or get injured, any guy you draft can bust.

 

This is why you need a robust scouting department, a strong apparatus that you can trust, so you have more Eovaldis' and less Klubers.

[Hugh2]

That's why I wouldn't sign Snell. Yamamato is a probably depending on the deal because of his age. Snell at 10 years? Hell no.

 

Snell has the stats that pitchers age well in, when they at least. He's got a big strong durable body. I'd take him over Nola.

[mvp 78]

That trade might be somewhat surprising against the backdrop that has the Brewers ranked third and the Red Sox 16th in MLB.com’s midseason farm system rankings:

 

MLB Pipeline's 2023 midseason farm system re-ranks

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Ranking farm systems -- comparing groups of a couple hundred prospects in 30 different organizations -- is, at best, a mostly subjective exercise, and at worst, all but impossible to do well. Yet the teams that place near the top in MLB Pipeline's biannual rankings almost always parlay their prospects

 

Oh no, MLB Pipeline!

[mvp 78]

Isn't that everything in baseball? Any guy you sign can fall off a cliff, any guy you trade for can fall off a cliff or get injured, any guy you draft can bust.

 

This is why you need a robust scouting department, a strong apparatus that you can trust, so you have more Eovaldis' and less Klubers.

 

I believe pitcher's are more likely to bust than hitters due to the higher likelihood of injury.

[mvp 78]

Snell has the stats that pitchers age well in, when they at least. He's got a big strong durable body. I'd take him over Nola.

 

The 5 BB/9?

 

That the majority of his years he pitches less than 130 innings?

[Hugh2]

The 5 BB/9?

 

That the majority of his years he pitches less than 130 innings?

 

Yes, I'd still take him. I'd bet he will pitch better the next 5 years than Nola.

[mvp 78]

Yes, I'd still take him. I'd bet he will pitch better the next 5 years than Nola.

 

I'd take Nola for sure. He's more likely to pitch all year and pitch a Complete Game once in a while.

[Hugh2]

I'd take Nola for sure. He's more likely to pitch all year and pitch a Complete Game once in a while.

 

I would not hate Nola/Yama either, actually, i would pretty much f***ing love that too. I still like Snell too though.

 

Don't think it will happen. But I think expecting one top-tier guy is reasonable.

[Bellhorn04]

The chances are nearly nil that one team will sign both Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

 

Based on what, harms?

[Bellhorn04]

That's why I wouldn't sign Snell. Yamamato is a probably depending on the deal because of his age. Snell at 10 years? Hell no.

 

Snell isn't getting 10 years.

 

Rodon only got 6. Snell might get 7.

[mvp 78]

I would not hate Nola/Yama either, actually, i would pretty much f***ing love that too. I still like Snell too though.

 

Don't think it will happen. But I think expecting one top-tier guy is reasonable.

 

I think there's no chance they get two of the top tier guys. I just don't see it happening.

[Hugh2]

I think there's no chance they get two of the top tier guys. I just don't see it happening.

 

I never said it was very realistic, it's just exactly what this team needs. More realistic is expecting one of the top tier guys, and then a guy in that second tier.

[mvp 78]

Snell isn't getting 10 years.

 

Rodon only got 6. Snell might get 7.

 

notin floated 10 years (after 5 years, still have 5 years 150 left comment).

[mvp 78]

I never said it was very realistic, it's just exactly what this team needs. More realistic is expecting one of the top tier guys, and then a guy in that second tier.

 

Is Montgomery still a second tier guy, or is he good enough to be top tier?

[Hugh2]

Is Montgomery still a second tier guy, or is he good enough to be top tier?

 

I'd put him in that second tier, but at the top of it.

[notin]

Snell isn't getting 10 years.

 

Rodon only got 6. Snell might get 7.

 

 

I am not so sure.

 

Snell is 30 years old and his resume could include two Cy Young awards in the past 6 seasons. And he’s hitting free agency at a time when teams are extending deals to reduce AAV. I wouldn’t have put Brandon Nimmo down for 8 years last year at this time either.