Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Hugh2]

Oh, does he reach 650 often? What's the OPS this year? If he's a bad defender, why go for a guy with an OPS under 800? Weren't people trying to run Yoshida out of town and he's producing better than Renfroe?

 

They answer is in that OPS.

 

How hard is it to find a fringe corner defender that hits .775?

 

Those guys are just very replaceable so why pay them?

[moonslav59]

They answer is in that OPS.

 

How hard is it to find a fringe corner defender that hits .775?

 

Those guys are just very replaceable so why pay them?

 

Not as easy as you might think.

 

2019-2023 OF'ers with 700+ PAs

 

Renfroe ranks 46th in fWAR at 7.5 (just below Duvall and above Santender and Beni.

 

Only 52 OF'er had a higher OPS, so less than 2 per team.

 

He is likely not worth his contract and younger OF'er have more upside.

 

Tighten the sample size to....

 

1,000+ PAs: Renroe ranks 46th out 0f 117 OF'ers in OPS

1500+ 41st out of 79

2000+ 27th out of 37

 

ONLY 19 OF'ers have more PAs and a higher OPS than Renfroe since 2019.

Edited September 5, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Not as easy as you might think.

 

2019-2023 OF'ers with 700+ PAs

 

Renfroe ranks 46th in fWAR at 7.5 (just below Duvall and above Santender and Beni.

 

Only 52 OF'er had a higher OPS, so less than 2 per team.

 

He is likely not worth his contract and younger OF'er have more upside.

 

Tighten the sample size to....

 

1,000+ PAs: Renroe ranks 46th out 0f 117 OF'ers in OPS

1500+ 41st out of 79

2000+ 27th out of 37

 

ONLY 19 OF'ers have more PAs and a higher OPS than Renfroe since 2019.

 

Then why does he get passed around like Swihart's Ghost's mom on White Snake's tour bus?

[Bellhorn04]

Then why does he get passed around like Swihart's Ghost's mom on White Snake's tour bus?

 

Some players are just meant to live out of suitcases.

[notin]

Some players are just meant to live out of suitcases.

 

Renfroe is becoming an easy guess on Immaculate Grid…

[moonslav59]

Then why does he get passed around like Swihart's Ghost's mom on White Snake's tour bus?

 

Poor defense. Yes.

 

Poor attitude? Not sure.

 

Paid too much? Maybe.

 

Easily replacable? Seems that way.

[Bellhorn04]

Poor defense. Yes.

 

Poor attitude? Not sure.

 

Paid too much? Maybe.

 

Easily replacable? Seems that way.

 

He's a Fungible Freddy.

[Dipre]

Then why does he get passed around like Swihart's Ghost's mom on White Snake's tour bus?

 

Or Madstork's dad on the Grindr circuits.

[moonslav59]

Or Madstork's dad on the Grindr circuits.

 

Ouch!

[mvp 78]

Poor defense. Yes.

 

Poor attitude? Not sure.

 

Paid too much? Maybe.

 

Easily replacable? Seems that way.

 

He's a UFA this offseason. We'll see what the market will bear for his services.

[moonslav59]

He's a UFA this offseason. We'll see what the market will bear for his services.

 

I'm not sure he gets the $11.9M he got, this year via his final arb.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure he gets the $11.9M he got, this year via his final arb.

 

No chance he gets that. $5 mill or thereabouts.

[moonslav59]

No chance he gets that. $5 mill or thereabouts.

 

Why did the Angels accept the arb?

[Bellhorn04]

Why did the Angels accept the arb?

 

Because the Angels are in the dunce corner of baseball, I guess.

[moonslav59]

Because the Angels are in the dunce corner of baseball, I guess.

 

Correct!

[mvp 78]

Because the Angels are in the dunce corner of baseball, I guess.

 

That's obvious by what they did before and after the trade deadline this year.

 

When I lived in LA, I never went to an Angels game because of the ongoing stories about rats in the concessions. It's really a terrible franchise from top to bottom.

[moonslav59]

That's obvious by what they did before and after the trade deadline this year.

 

When I lived in LA, I never went to an Angels game because of the ongoing stories about rats in the concessions. It's really a terrible franchise from top to bottom.

 

The Sox need more teams like the Angels to improve on our playoff odds.

[mvp 78]

The Sox need more teams like the Angels to improve on our playoff odds.

 

The Blue Jays are perennial pretenders and the Orioles will go back to being the Orioles in a few years due to their owner. They will be pretty good over the short term though. AL Central is a hodgepodge. TEX isn't sustainable.

[moonslav59]

The Blue Jays are perennial pretenders and the Orioles will go back to being the Orioles in a few years due to their owner. They will be pretty good over the short term though. AL Central is a hodgepodge. TEX isn't sustainable.

 

BAL benefited from tanking for so many years.

 

The Astros did, too, but they figured out a way to keep the window open, longer.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxpayroll

In the offseason, Justin Turner signed a 1yr/$8.3MM contract for 2023 plus a $13.4MM player option for 2024. The option comes with a $6.7MM buyout.

 

This means that once the option comes due in early November after the World Series, he'll have what seems to be an easy decision to make.

 

If he declines the option and makes $6.7MM immediately, all he needs to do is find a 1yr/$6.7MM deal in free agency to beat the total option value for 2024. With 1.8 WAR and 123 wRC+, that would be a no-brainer for any team.

[moonslav59]

@redsoxpayroll

In the offseason, Justin Turner signed a 1yr/$8.3MM contract for 2023 plus a $13.4MM player option for 2024. The option comes with a $6.7MM buyout.

 

This means that once the option comes due in early November after the World Series, he'll have what seems to be an easy decision to make.

 

If he declines the option and makes $6.7MM immediately, all he needs to do is find a 1yr/$6.7MM deal in free agency to beat the total option value for 2024. With 1.8 WAR and 123 wRC+, that would be a no-brainer for any team.

 

This whole option thing sounds confusing to me. It's a player option.

 

To me, it seem slike JT can take the $13.4 option, which he should not, and then the Sox have the option of paying him $13.4M in 2024 or buy him out to play elsewhere and pay $6.7M. It seems to me, they don't pay him the $6.7M, if he opts out. That's what it seems like to me, but I keep hearing we pay the $6.7M, even if he opts out. Why?

[Bellhorn04]

This whole option thing sounds confusing to me. It's a player option.

 

To me, it seem slike JT can take the $13.4 option, which he should not, and then the Sox have the option of paying him $13.4M in 2024 or buy him out to play elsewhere and pay $6.7M. It seems to me, they don't pay him the $6.7M, if he opts out. That's what it seems like to me, but I keep hearing we pay the $6.7M, even if he opts out. Why?

 

Yes, they have to pay him the $6.7 mill if he opts out. That's just the way it's written.

[moonslav59]

Yes, they have to pay him the $6.7 mill if he opts out. That's just the way it's written.

 

That's what it seems, but on cots, it says "buy out," which implies that if they don't want to pay him the player option, then they buy it out at $6.7M.

 

I'm not saying I'm right, but it's seems to be worded wrongly on cots. and it seems like an odd way to write a contract.

[Bellhorn04]

That's what it seems, but on cots, it says "buy out," which implies that if they don't want to pay him the player option, then they buy it out at $6.7M.

 

I'm not saying I'm right, but it's seems to be worded wrongly on cots. and it seems like an odd way to write a contract.

 

We're seeing more and more contracts like this now. (Look at Wacha's with the Padres.) It gives the player both security and an opportunity to make more. Ergo, it induces them to sign.

 

Obviously the team also figures they don't have much to lose. Turner is having a good year, so it's going to cost the Sox $15 mill. If he didn't have as good a year they'd have for him for 2 years and $21.7 mill.

[moonslav59]

We're seeing more and more contracts like this now. (Look at Wacha's with the Padres.) It gives the player both security and an opportunity to make more. Ergo, it induces them to sign.

 

Obviously the team also figures they don't have much to lose. Turner is having a good year, so it's going to cost the Sox $15 mill. If he didn't have as good a year they'd have for him for 2 years and $21.7 mill.

 

I guess it's a way to bring down the AAV, but we were so far under in 2023, I don't see why it matters.

 

Does the $6.7M now count on 2024's tax budget line? If yes, it's another "mistake."

 

I realize the deal is structure like this: Turner’s deal is worth $21.7 million if he exercises his player option for 2024. If he doesn’t exercise the option, it is one year at $15 million.

 

Why doesn't the $15M show up on cots tax line for 2023? (Is this why we stayed under by $7-11M?)

[Bellhorn04]

I guess it's a way to bring down the AAV, but we were so far under in 2023, I don't see why it matters.

 

Does the $6.7M now count on 2024's tax budget line? If yes, it's another "mistake."

 

I realize the deal is structure like this: Turner’s deal is worth $21.7 million if he exercises his player option for 2024. If he doesn’t exercise the option, it is one year at $15 million.

 

Why doesn't the $15M show up on cots tax line for 2023? (Is this why we stayed under by $7-11M?)

 

The only thing I'm reasonably sure of is that if Turner opts out none of it will count toward 2024 (just as the buyout on JBJ didn't count toward 2023). I'm not sure about the adjustment for 2023 for Turner. It's confusing stuff alright.

[mvp 78]

This whole option thing sounds confusing to me. It's a player option.

 

To me, it seem slike JT can take the $13.4 option, which he should not, and then the Sox have the option of paying him $13.4M in 2024 or buy him out to play elsewhere and pay $6.7M. It seems to me, they don't pay him the $6.7M, if he opts out. That's what it seems like to me, but I keep hearing we pay the $6.7M, even if he opts out. Why?

 

It's an opt out. He opts out and gets paid 6.7M. That's the contract. That's why.

[mvp 78]

I guess it's a way to bring down the AAV, but we were so far under in 2023, I don't see why it matters.

 

Does the $6.7M now count on 2024's tax budget line? If yes, it's another "mistake."

 

I realize the deal is structure like this: Turner’s deal is worth $21.7 million if he exercises his player option for 2024. If he doesn’t exercise the option, it is one year at $15 million.

 

Why doesn't the $15M show up on cots tax line for 2023? (Is this why we stayed under by $7-11M?)

 

The lux tax for next season would be 4.15M as he has already assumed a portion of the buy out during 2023 towards the CBT.

[moonslav59]

It's an opt out. He opts out and gets paid 6.7M. That's the contract. That's why.

 

I get it and wrote that, but why call it a "buy out?"

[moonslav59]

The lux tax for next season would be 4.15M as he has already assumed a portion of the buy out during 2023 towards the CBT.

 

Why $4.15?

 

I know, because "it says so."

 

cots shows the tax hit was $10.85M for 2023, so I guess, when he opts out, the remaining $4.15M that makes it $15M is what counts on 2024.

 

Another sunken cost!!!!

Edited September 6, 2023 by moonslav59