Trade Deadline 2023

[mvp 78]

I missed where it said Rafaela is a much better SS.

 

Where does another post need to say that? It's common knowledge that Rafaela's value is solely in his glove. Story is coming of modified TJS.

 

Rafaela's best fit long term would just be as a 9th in the order CFer.

[Hugh2]

I disagree.

 

If we did not have Duvall or Refsnyder, finding a RH'd OF'er would not be our 1, 2 or 3 priority.

 

1. SP

2, SP

3. RH RP

4 LH MI or RH power bat

 

agree to disagree. The staples in this lineup are all leftys, any right hander is some combination of here on a short term deal, old, injured often, or production comes and goes. I think they would value a rh hitting power bat that could play all three outfield positions well.

 

I also don't think they will target two starting pitchers, they should and may get one, and hope SALE/WHITLOCK/HOUCK can at least lock down one spot. Aside from that, you will probably get that 2nd arm to start in the form of minor league depth. Look no further than last night's starter down in WOO last night. Dinelson Lamet, lol that's your starter. I won't be shocked if they add one who is aproven in the majors, and I think they should. EROD is still out there.

 

Also, I don't think they're adding two or even one high end relief arm. If they pick up a starter and arms come back someone is getting pushed to the bullpen, and a lot of those guys can be really good there.

 

You already had bullpen depth added with the Kike trade. I'm not really sure what else they do, but it would seem logical they will go SP3 LH SS/2ND

[Hugh2]

Rafaellas value is so so much tied into his defense.

 

Imagine taking Jackie Bradley Jr. and wasting his defense at 3B/2B?. Look, sometimes you play a guy out of position, even if he's superior there to yield to a proven big league star. But those pills become much easier to swallow when the guy can hit. Did anyone really care when Mookie Betts moved to the outfield? no because he could hit.

 

Rafaellas swing data has huge red flags in them, he literally chases everything. And while some guys at the MLB level turn out to be Vldamire Guerreras and can just do that, most guys with that profile struggle to ever become good MLB hitters. If he can OPS at least .700 then he will be an everyday player who adds tremendous value at CF. That's where I think he belongs.

 

With that said, if the bat never takes a step forward, but he isn't a black hole at the plate and Duran keeps improving. I wouldn't mind seeing him used as a super utility guy who MAINLY gets reps in CF/SS

[Dojji]

Why would Story be the long term SS if Rafaela is a much better defender? How does that make any sense? Why take all of Rafaela's value and throw it in the trash?

 

A bit dramatic, no? The beauty of Rafaela is that if Story does need to slide down the defensive spectrum, Rafaela could step up and play short.

 

Also, it's hardly "throwing his value in the trash" to play a SS prospect at 2B. Second base is a very high leverage position, second only to shortstop itself.

[mvp 78]

A bit dramatic, no? The beauty of Rafaela is that if Story does need to slide down the defensive spectrum, Rafaela could step up and play short.

 

Also, it's hardly "throwing his value in the trash" to play a SS prospect at 2B. Second base is a very high leverage position, second only to shortstop itself.

 

No, there's are 2 big reasons that Rafaela shouldn't just be put at 2B.

 

1. He grades out as a GG CFer which greatly increases his value if he can't produce with the bat.

 

2. The defensive value at SS is approximately 5 runs greater than 2B. A defensive first 2B doesn't really exist in this day and age.

[mvp 78]

Rafaela is JBJ with a lower BB rate and more pop.

[moonslav59]

He didn't say it would be the top priority, though.

 

True, and I did not say it would not be a priority, either.

[notin]

I disagree.

 

If we did not have Duvall or Refsnyder, finding a RH'd OF'er would not be our 1, 2 or 3 priority.

 

1. SP

2, SP

3. RH RP

4 LH MI or RH power bat

 

It looks like the Sox are looking for 1 SP, 1 RP, and a LHH MI.

 

Not so sure RP is a big need. The bullpen has given up like 5 ER in the last 40IP since Faria’s blowout in Chicago. And 3 of those came in one Justin Garza outing. I suppose depth is the main reason, but getting a SP would help the bullpen tremendously.

 

I do wonder if Llovera checks the RP box. Probably not, and he might be released after a few IP. But at least there is still time to replace him…

[mvp 78]

It looks like the Sox are looking for 1 SP, 1 RP, and a LHH MI.

 

Not so sure RP is a big need. The bullpen has given up like 5 ER in the last 40IP since Faria’s blowout in Chicago. And 3 of those came in one Justin Garza outing. I suppose depth is the main reason, but getting a SP would help the bullpen tremendously.

 

I do wonder if Llovera checks the RP box. Probably not, and he might be released after a few IP. But at least there is still time to replace him…

 

I think they'd just like to upgrade where they can and the price tag on LHMIF and RHRP may be on the lower end of things.

[Dojji]

My crazy deadline theory:

 

Duvall to the Brewers for RP Bryse Wilson

 

The Brewers could use a rental bat and their offense from the outfield is abysmal. They're trying to compete for the division championship and duvall represents a shot in the arm offensively for them. Meanwhile Bryse Wilson is a good young arm who can pitch multiple innings and would upgrade our fragile bullpen. He could even be another good opener for us. Might take some middling prospects like Kavadas or Drohan to make up the weight for Milwaukee but the core of the deal works for both sides, the Brewers have a surplus of good arms, and are desperate for offense, especially outfield offense.

 

Nick Yorke to the Padres for Seth Lugo

 

Lugo is exactly what we need. A quality arm that can go deep into games. His contract is almost exactly the same size as Duvall's, meaning that this would be a cap neutral series of moves. I believe Lugo is slightly more expensive than Duvall which makes it a good thing that we cleared some of Kike's money a few days ago. Yorke, our #5 prospect, is just about right for gaining a quality rental, and Lugo has a player option for 2024 which we may be able to parlay into a reasonable extension if we so chose. If we did extend him he'd probably move into the rotation spot being vacated by Paxton, but for this year, we'd have bothh of them.

[mvp 78]

I think Yorke for Lugo is a massive overpay.

 

Per BTV:

Yorke 15M

Lugo 5M

 

I'm also not sure if they need more MIF help considering how they built their squad. Would they be more interested in a package of Drohan and Mata?

[Dipre]

My crazy deadline theory:

 

Duvall to the Brewers for RP Bryse Wilson

 

The Brewers could use a rental bat and their offense from the outfield is abysmal. They're trying to compete for the division championship and duvall represents a shot in the arm offensively for them. Meanwhile Bryse Wilson is a good young arm who can pitch multiple innings and would upgrade our fragile bullpen. He could even be another good opener for us. Might take some middling prospects like Kavadas or Drohan to make up the weight for Milwaukee but the core of the deal works for both sides, the Brewers have a surplus of good arms, and are desperate for offense, especially outfield offense.

 

Nick Yorke to the Padres for Seth Lugo

 

Lugo is exactly what we need. A quality arm that can go deep into games. His contract is almost exactly the same size as Duvall's, meaning that this would be a cap neutral series of moves. I believe Lugo is slightly more expensive than Duvall which makes it a good thing that we cleared some of Kike's money a few days ago. Yorke, our #5 prospect, is just about right for gaining a quality rental, and Lugo has a player option for 2024 which we may be able to parlay into a reasonable extension if we so chose. If we did extend him he'd probably move into the rotation spot being vacated by Paxton, but for this year, we'd have bothh of them.

 

I highly doubt either Duvall or Yorke go anywhere.

[moonslav59]

I highly doubt either Duvall or Yorke go anywhere.

 

One could say that about any single player, but someone will be traded.

[Dojji]

I highly doubt either Duvall or Yorke go anywhere.

 

We're up against the cap. If we want a starter who costs money, we're going to trade money. Duvall is obvious cap money to trade. Everything else is, of course, purely speculative.

[mvp 78]

I highly doubt either Duvall or Yorke go anywhere.

 

I'm not opposed to dealing Yorke.

[mvp 78]

The only prospects I wouldn't trade are Bleis, Anthony and Mayer. In the right trade, all the other prospects could be dealt.

[Bellhorn04]

I have a new sig line that expresses my prediction.

[sk7326]

I actually see a potential future where Rafaela is our second baseman. Our OF is fine at the moment, Story is probably our long term SS, but Arroyo is just about replacement level, not hard to see Rafaela outshining him to fill that hole. If he can play shortstop he can learn second so that's not likely to be an issue. It just makes sense over the next 2-3 years to see if Rafaela can be the star at second.

 

I suppose - but it is also not playing your best org CF at CF for reasons.

[mvp 78]

I suppose - but it is also not playing your best org CF at CF for reasons.

 

Next year for Opening Day it could be:

 

C Wong

1B Casas

2B Story

3B Devers

SS Chang

RF Verdugo

CF Rafaela

LF Duran

DH Yoshida

 

Defensively, that's a much better unit.

Edited July 28, 2023 by mvp 78

[Bellhorn04]

Next year for Opening Day it could be:

 

C Wong

1B Casas

2B Story

3B Devers

SS Ch

RF Verdugo

CF Rafaela

LF Duran

DH Yoshida

 

Defensively, that's a much better unit.

 

A little light on RH hitting.

[notin]

The only prospects I wouldn't trade are Bleis, Anthony and Mayer. In the right trade, all the other prospects could be dealt.

 

 

In the right trade, they’re all available.

 

Now finding the “right trade” for these 3 might not be so easy…

[mvp 78]

A little light on RH hitting.

 

No different than this year. Story's RHB replaces Turner's. Rafaela is a RHB in CF.

 

Refsnyder is still on the bench for tough lefties.

[Maxbialystock]

I have a new sig line that expresses my prediction.

 

I have to be honest and say I agree with Bloom--if in fact he intends to hang onto both of them. Obviously, I'm high on Paxton, especially right now with the rotation decimated by injuries. Plus I don't have high hopes for Whitlock or Houck as starters when they do return. And Kluber ain't going to start again for the Sox. That leaves Sale, who can only help if he returns as Good Sale, the one we saw for about 8 starts this season.

 

Moreover, the infield, outfield, and catcher positions have shaped up nicely, especially when Story returns, which should be soon. Plus McGuire is a good second catcher.

 

The Sox currently have five outfielders--Yoshida, Duvall, Dugo, Duran, and Refsnyder--so losing Duvall should be no big deal because he has struggled since returning from that injury to I think his wrist. Nevertheless, he is a righty bat with power, which is a great fit for The Fens if his stroke ever comes back.

[Bellhorn04]

No different than this year. Story's RHB replaces Turner's.

 

We can hope so.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox currently have five outfielders--Yoshida, Duvall, Dugo, Duran, and Refsnyder--so losing Duvall should be no big deal because he has struggled since returning from that injury to I think his wrist. Nevertheless, he is a righty bat with power, which is a great fit for The Fens if his stroke ever comes back.

 

Does the .967 OPS in his last 10 games not work for you?

[mvp 78]

Trade Story. It's an undermarket contract!

[mvp 78]

Does the .967 OPS in his last 10 games not work for you?

 

We want the April version back!

[Bellhorn04]

Trade Story. It's an undermarket contract!

 

You misspelled underwater.

[Dojji]

I'm not opposed to dealing Yorke.

 

You have to deal someone, and if you want quality back, it has to be someone you probably didn't want to get rid of. Yorke is in that sweet spot where he has obvious value but the team doesn't really, truly, absolutely need to keep him

[notin]

My crazy deadline theory:

 

Duvall to the Brewers for RP Bryse Wilson

 

The Brewers could use a rental bat and their offense from the outfield is abysmal. They're trying to compete for the division championship and duvall represents a shot in the arm offensively for them. Meanwhile Bryse Wilson is a good young arm who can pitch multiple innings and would upgrade our fragile bullpen. He could even be another good opener for us. Might take some middling prospects like Kavadas or Drohan to make up the weight for Milwaukee but the core of the deal works for both sides, the Brewers have a surplus of good arms, and are desperate for offense, especially outfield offense.

 

Nick Yorke to the Padres for Seth Lugo

 

Lugo is exactly what we need. A quality arm that can go deep into games. His contract is almost exactly the same size as Duvall's, meaning that this would be a cap neutral series of moves. I believe Lugo is slightly more expensive than Duvall which makes it a good thing that we cleared some of Kike's money a few days ago. Yorke, our #5 prospect, is just about right for gaining a quality rental, and Lugo has a player option for 2024 which we may be able to parlay into a reasonable extension if we so chose. If we did extend him he'd probably move into the rotation spot being vacated by Paxton, but for this year, we'd have bothh of them.

 

 

I’m going with my crazier yet BTV-approved deadline predictions

 

LHP Brandon Walter, INF Enmanuel Valdez, and 1b Blaze Jordan to Oakland for RHP Paul Blackburn. I’m sticking with Blackburn. No idea why. (Two 40 man players might not be on the Oakland Wish List, but both could also step in today.)

 

RHP Ryan Fernandez to KC for 2b/SS/SB machine Nicky Lopez. He does fit the need for a “left-handed hitting middle infielder”. But if we’re being honest, his focus is more on the “left-handed” portion as opposed to the “hitting. I’m basing Fernandez on the acceptable target over dozens of other possibilities because KC did take Fernandez-clone Jacob Wallace this off-season, so I’m operating on the assumption it’s a profile they like. Hey I got nothing else here…