The Red Sox starting rotation -- long term

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I see Drohan and Bello as the two best young SPs in the organization, and both will hopefully be key contributors for a long time.

 

What is the long term prognostication for Whitlock? Will he turn into a dependable starter or will he spend the bulk of his career in the bullpen? He is always hurt and that could impact his future as a starting pitcher.

 

What is the long term prognostication for Houck? I like him but will he be a better long term fit for the bullpen?

 

What is the long term prognostication for Winckowski? Will he ever return to the starting rotation or will he be a reliever going forward?

 

Is there another SP in the Red Sox farm system that you think will be a long term pitcher in the Red Sox starting rotation? Who should I be watching at this stage as he moves up the ladder in the farm system?

Edited June 13, 2023 by Fan_since_Boggs

[mvp 78]

Winckowski and Houck are bullpen arms.

 

Whitlock is an unknown largely due to his health. Should he be sent to the pen for this reason? IDK.

 

Bello and Drohan both look good at the moment.

 

Others of note:

 

Noah Dean probably is moved back to the pen and sees a Winckowski type role.

 

Elmer Rodriguez Cruz is probably a future 4-5 starter.

 

Luis Perales has the ceiling of a top of the rotation starter, but just hasn't had much in game time. One scouting report showed him as a future closer maybe.

[Hugh2]

I see Drohan and Bello as the two best young SPs in the organization, and both will hopefully be key contributors for a long time.

 

What is the long term prognostication for Whitlock? Will he turn into a dependable starter or will he spend the bulk of his career in the bullpen? He is always hurt and that could impact his future as a starting pitcher.

 

What is the long term prognostication for Houck? I like him but will he be a better long term fit for the bullpen?

 

What is the long term prognostication for Winckowski? Will he ever return to the starting rotation or will he be a reliever going forward?

 

Is there another SP in the Red Sox farm system that you think will be a long-term pitcher in the Red Sox starting rotation? Who should I be watching at this stage as he moves up the ladder in the farm system?

 

Your two best options for starting pitchers on that list is Bello and Drohan. Drohan is far from a sure thing, he's promising and is seeing his stock rising but he just popped as a guy who is looked at as a future starter for only a few months. Guys who are top pitching prospects and have been "guys" for a while fall short of becoming MLB starting pitchers all the time.

 

If I'm projecting the Sox starting rotation 4 years out from now, maybe Drohan is on that now, but if you had 5 Drohans in your system you can count on 3-4 of them failing as starters and maybe 1-2 of those guys becoming decent to better bullpen arms.

 

There are other young arms in the Sox system who have potential but they're just too far away to have any real confidence in (that can change in a year or two). I'd put these guys on that list.

 

Luis Perales SP#8

Wikelman Gonzalez SP#14

Elmer Rodriguez-crus SP#16

 

 

Haven't talked about Mata, with his horrible control he seems destined for the bullpen but if something clicks he could be better than all 3 of those guys and Drohan.

 

What I love most about Drohan, is he is the prototypical prospect we DON'T get in this system. We have the opposites of Drohans, guys who are good prospects and fail. Drohan wasn't considered a top prospect and his stuff ticked up and now he is. That's the type of thing that happens in a good system that can develop pitching. Hopefully, this is a sign of better things to come.

[moonslav59]

Winckowski and Houck are bullpen arms.

 

Whitlock is an unknown largely due to his health. Should he be sent to the pen for this reason? IDK.

 

Bello and Drohan both look good at the moment.

 

Others of note:

 

Noah Dean probably is moved back to the pen and sees a Winckowski type role.

 

Elmer Rodriguez Cruz is probably a future 4-5 starter.

 

Luis Perales has the ceiling of a top of the rotation starter, but just hasn't had much in game time. One scouting report showed him as a future closer maybe.

 

Do you see Luis de la Rosa or Guerrero as a possible surprise?

 

I'm assuming you see Mata and Walter as future pen arms.

 

Wikelman is never mentioned, anymore.

[Hugh2]

Here is the Soxprospects projected rotation for the 2025 year. Lets keep in mind these projections assume zero trades or FA acquisitions. It only uses guys who will be in the Sox system in 2025.

 

Garrett Whitlock

Brayan Bello

Brayan Mata

Brandon Walter

Shane Drohan

 

Lets be honest, not one of those guys has established themselves as a starter. You can see it with Whitlock if he can stay healthy, and given his young age and ability to miss bats at the MLB level you can see if it Bello, but the question marks get bigger after that.

 

That's 3 holes, and if one of the top 2 can't stay healthy it's 4. Now I'm not saying someone can't pop and fill in the gaps but anyway, you slice it, most permutations of a near-distant future COMPETITIVE Red Sox team probably involve acquiring a TOTRS via trade or FA. I think it's reasonable to see two starting pitcher additions to this team over the next two years that are not within this system. So I can see

 

SP1 Free agent 1

SP2 Bello

SP3 Free agent 2

SP4 Whitlock

SP5 Drohan/Mata/Walter/Gonalez/Chris Murphy/Free agent 5

[Hugh2]

Do you see Luis de la Rosa or Guerrero as a possible surprise?

 

I'm assuming you see Mata and Walter as future pen arms.

 

Wikelman is never mentioned, anymore.

 

Guerrero is a relief pitcher. Wikelman has a wide range of possible outcomes, too far away to count on. He could figure it out and pop, or continue to struggle with his command and look more like a relief pitcher in several years from now. The pitching in the system is NOT very strong, Drohan is a nice surprise, but the pitching is still a weak point.

[moonslav59]

Here is the Soxprospects projected rotation for the 2025 year. Lets keep in mind these projections assume zero trades or FA acquisitions. It only uses guys who will be in the Sox system in 2025.

 

Garrett Whitlock

Brayan Bello

Brayan Mata

Brandon Walter

Shane Drohan

 

Lets be honest, not one of those guys has established themselves as a starter. You can see it with Whitlock if he can stay healthy, and given his young age and ability to miss bats at the MLB level you can see if it Bello, but the question marks get bigger after that.

 

That's 3 holes, and if one of the top 2 can't stay healthy it's 4. Now I'm not saying someone can't pop and fill in the gaps but anyway, you slice it, most permutations of a near-distant future COMPETITIVE Red Sox team probably involve acquiring a TOTRS via trade or FA. I think it's reasonable to see two starting pitcher additions to this team over the next two years that are not within this system. So I can see

 

SP1 Free agent 1

SP2 Bello

SP3 Free agent 2

SP4 Whitlock

SP5 Drohan/Mata/Walter/Gonalez/Chris Murphy/Free agent 5

 

As much as I love our farm improvement, I still think trading for an ace or solid #2 is the way to go. Get a guy approaching or in early prime- not some expensive FA already past his better days.

[Hugh2]

As much as I love our farm improvement, I still think trading for an ace or solid #2 is the way to go. Get a guy approaching or in early prime- not some expensive FA already past his better days.

 

The problem is going for the guy in his early prime is going to cost you an arm and a leg, unless he happens to be a FA (which doens't happen often because guys get locked up early now) in which case it will cost you two arms and two legs.

 

At some point you have to strike

[moonslav59]

The problem is going for the guy in his early prime is going to cost you an arm and a leg, unless he happens to be a FA (which doens't happen often because guys get locked up early now) in which case it will cost you two arms and two legs.

 

At some point you have to strike

 

FA signings are swings and misses, to often, of they end up being big drains later in the deal.

 

I know we've had great fortune with trades for aces, so maybe I'm biased, but I think that is the best chance at success.

 

I'd hate to lose Mayer and more. I doubt we get an ace for Casas, Rafaela and Mata. (Remember when people bashed me for even suggesting we trade Casas?)

[Hugh2]

FA signings are swings and misses, to often, of they end up being big drains later in the deal.

 

I know we've had great fortune with trades for aces, so maybe I'm biased, but I think that is the best chance at success.

 

I'd hate to lose Mayer and more. I doubt we get an ace for Casas, Rafaela and Mata. (Remember when people bashed me for even suggesting we trade Casas?)

 

This is why you don't go for it until the timing is right. Having an ACE pitch his prime seasons here when you don't have a pipeline of star talent around him is wasteful. You can't sign ALL your stars, you have to develop them, and if you're trading guys away you're lessoning your chances. A strong team and a strong farm is when the iron is hot. I think that's in two years from now.

 

Personally, I want to see them go big after Ohtani.

 

Or maybe, the Sox want to go after the younger next big thing to come out of Japan in Roki Sasaki or Yoshinobu Yamamoto who many people say is BETTER than Ohtani, at least as just a pitcher.

 

Who is Japan pitcher Roki Sasaki?

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Every baseball fan should know the name Roki Sasaki. He's the 21-year-old sensation from Japan who's already the most electric pitcher in Nippon Professional Baseball. He's a once-in-a-generation talent in the class of Shohei Ohtani. He's finally on the global stage at the World Baseball Classic, where he'll start Japan's

 

He will be posted next year.

[Hugh2]

or may get posted at least. It's a risk, but he will be in his early 20's and will come cheaper than the Ohtani/Verlanders of the world and he has some of the most electric stuff on the planet right now.

 

Yamamoto is expected to be posted not Roki, going to research now on when we can expect that. I mixed the two up. Yamamoto is a young stud too.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/mlb-rumors-yoshinobu-yamamoto-ace-japan-npb-posted-2023.html

Edited May 9, 2023 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Hugh2]

losing all your talent that you'd want around that ACE just so you can have an ACE makes you the Angels for the last several years. I'm not saying we Don't trade for an ACE, but we don't just do it to have one, and I'm not opposed to paying for one with the likes of Ohtani and Giolito on the market next year.

[moonslav59]

losing all your talent that you'd want around that ACE just so you can have an ACE makes you the Angels for the last several years. I'm not saying we Don't trade for an ACE, but we don't just do it to have one, and I'm not opposed to paying for one with the likes of Ohtani and Giolito on the market next year.

 

Spending 15-20% of your budget on one pitcher may have the same affect and for a long time, too.

 

I think the Price signing soured me, although I thought it was needed, at the time. He was about as solid a gamble as there could possibly be, and he did not come through for us, much at all. Maybe we still have Betts had we not signed him.

[mvp 78]

Do you see Luis de la Rosa or Guerrero as a possible surprise?

 

I'm assuming you see Mata and Walter as future pen arms.

 

Wikelman is never mentioned, anymore.

 

Guerrero is NOT a starter. He is a pure reliever but can be a good one.

 

Wikelman had a horrible April. He pitched well last time out. Due to his age, I think he's out of the system before he makes it to MLB.

 

De La Rosa is not even in the Top 60 of prospects. He's an org guy.

 

Walter is a fringe starter, probably a reliever as his velo has ticked down.

 

Mata is a pen arm IMO.

[moonslav59]

Guerrero is NOT a starter. He is a pure reliever but can be a good one.

 

Wikelman had a horrible April. He pitched well last time out. Due to his age, I think he's out of the system before he makes it to MLB.

 

De La Rosa is not even in the Top 60 of prospects. He's an org guy.

 

Walter is a fringe starter, probably a reliever as his velo has ticked down.

 

Mata is a pen arm IMO.

 

Thanks for your reply.

 

de la Rosa is only 20, and I think he might surprise.

[mvp 78]

Thanks for your reply.

 

de la Rosa is only 20, and I think he might surprise.

 

Maybe. We don't typically see guys come completely out of nowhere, but he could end up being a middle reliever or something.

[Hugh2]

Spending 15-20% of your budget on one pitcher may have the same affect and for a long time, too.

 

I think the Price signing soured me, although I thought it was needed, at the time. He was about as solid a gamble as there could possibly be, and he did not come through for us, much at all. Maybe we still have Betts had we not signed him.

 

And how much money do we spend on RF/CF/SS to make up for what we don't get because we are trading away Mayer/Rafaealla/Duran for a #1 starting pitcher??? You could say those guys could bust like the Sale trade, or that maybe they dont' and you pay more in free agency to get the production those guys would have given you than you would in free agency on a starting pitcher.

 

I suppose it comes down to which you have more faith in. I have faith in the Sox ability to draft and develop young position players. I'm not trading away those three, unless you 3 more of them in your system. The Sox system was around the 10-15 range in strength, probably closer to middle of the pack because some didn't consider Yoshida a prospect. It's not the time to trade for an ACE.

 

If you had this EXACT same farm system, but a better MLB club, with more talent, and young talent locked up long-term (think Atlanta) I'd say strike now. Otherwise, it's premature.

[Hugh2]

Thanks for your reply.

 

de la Rosa is only 20, and I think he might surprise.

 

But he's already in the bullpen, and he's a guy who scouts have specifically mentioned as "the best pure relief prospect in the system" in that, they strongly see him as a reliever.

[Hugh2]

Heres what Soxprospects says about Luis

 

"Potential middle reliever. Ceiling of a late-inning relief arm. On the raw side and needs to improve his command and consistency, but has some of the best raw stuff of any relief arm in the system. Splitter is a potential separator pitch with the ability to miss bats at the highest level. Fastball has good velocity, but is hittable and he will have to show the ability to command it to succeed"

[mvp 78]

But he's already in the bullpen, and he's a guy who scouts have specifically mentioned as "the best pure relief prospect in the system" in that, they strongly see him as a reliever.

 

De La Rosa or Guerrero? Are you getting two players confused?

 

Guerrero is the pure relief guy. DLR is the org guy.

[Hugh2]

De La Rosa or Guerrero? Are you getting two players confused?

 

Guerrero is the pure relief guy. DLR is the org guy.

 

Why did I think you guys were talking about Guerrero?

[Hugh2]

WHo is DLR????? he is unranked

[mvp 78]

WHo is DLR????? he is unranked

 

Luis De La Rosa. https://soxprospects.com/players/delarosa-luis.htm

[Hugh2]

Luis De La Rosa. https://soxprospects.com/players/delarosa-luis.htm

 

It would be cool of him if he pops, but how is he in this conversation? he isn't on anyones top list and projects as an organizational guy.

 

The odds that he's a MLB starter are very low. But not non-existent. But guys like him have 0% on moves you make to build your rotation for the next year or two.

[moonslav59]

It would be cool of him if he pops, but how is he in this conversation? he isn't on anyones top list and projects as an organizational guy.

 

The odds that he's a MLB starter are very low. But not non-existent. But guys like him have 0% on moves you make to build your rotation for the next year or two.

 

I think there was a time he was mentioned as a far-away guy with a chance.

 

He was part of the Beni trade.

 

He is certainly a long shot. I think he was top 60, at one point.

[mvp 78]

It would be cool of him if he pops, but how is he in this conversation? he isn't on anyones top list and projects as an organizational guy.

 

The odds that he's a MLB starter are very low. But not non-existent. But guys like him have 0% on moves you make to build your rotation for the next year or two.

 

moon brought him up. He's not even on my radar.

[moonslav59]

moon brought him up. He's not even on my radar.

 

There certainly are others worth mentioning over DLR.

[Hugh2]

I think there was a time he was mentioned as a far-away guy with a chance.

 

He was part of the Beni trade.

 

He is certainly a long shot. I think he was top 60, at one point.

 

I mean, a few of Blooms guys have popped after a year or two in the system so who knows. Still think he’s a long shot. We will see

[moonslav59]

I mean, a few of Blooms guys have popped after a year or two in the system so who knows. Still think he’s a long shot. We will see

 

I only know about him from the Beni trade and watching if anything would come of the 5 guys we got for him.

 

Cordero flopped.

 

Wink looked like one, but now...

 

Gambrell is with de la Rosa in Salem.

 

Freddy Valdez is still in FCL.

[Nick]

Shane Drohan looks like Sale clone weighing only 175lbs? He's certainly having a good year and I look forward to his promotion to AAA at some point.

 

He turned 24 in January by the way.

 

I like this new thread, get the feel for our pipeline.

 

One thing we all agree on here is how difficult it is to develop a starting pitcher.

 

That said, that is exactly why we don't dispatch Whitlock, Tanner and Kutter to the pen on a whim. They are all only 27 years old.

Their prime pitching days are here or just around the corner.

 

Whitlock's issue is his health.

 

Tanner came into the year with only 2 pitches. Now he has enough in his arsenal to be a starter. The drum beat against him remaining in the rotation is his 'third' time around the lineup. Perhaps that's something he'll overcome. As I've said often, he and Kutter have kick ass look about them. Very unlike Mr. Barnes as an example.

 

Down the line, Luis Perales, despite his small frame seems to have the highest ceiling, already throwing at 95-98, topping out at 99 and with a good curveball and work in progress change up.

 

Who knows, maybe Winckowski will reinvent himself again.