The Red Sox starting rotation -- long term

[moonslav59]

My projected Sox rotations:

 

2024:

1. Sonny Gray

2. Chris Sale

3. Bryan Bello

4. Garrett Whitlock

5. Houck

6. Nick Pivetta/Kutter Crawford/Shane Drohan

 

20/25:

1. Sonny Gray

2. Bryan Bello

3. Garrett Whitlock

4. Houck

5. Kutter Crawford/Shane Drohan

6. Bryan Mata, Brandon Walter

 

2026

Maybe Perales or Wikelman break in.

 

2027

Maybe E R-C, Noah Dean or Dalton Rogers

Edited May 12, 2023 by moonslav59

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The problem with Sonny Gray is he couldn't handle the pressure of New York and so I worry about him in Boston.

 

Ohtani would be the guy but he will cost a fortune, the most expensive contract ever, and I don't see him leaving the West Coast. Then again, if the Mets continue to suck this year, does Steve Cohen make a crazy offer to get him?

 

If the Red Sox can get an ace and a solid #2 out of Bello, Whitlock, and Drohan, that will make things much easier and they won't have to look to free agency or the trade market for a top starter.

[moonslav59]

The problem with Sonny Gray is he couldn't handle the pressure of New York and so I worry about him in Boston.

 

Ohtani would be the guy but he will cost a fortune, the most expensive contract ever, and I don't see him leaving the West Coast. Then again, if the Mets continue to suck this year, does Steve Cohen make a crazy offer to get him?

 

If the Red Sox can get an ace and a solid #2 out of Bello, Whitlock, and Drohan, that will make things much easier and they won't have to look to free agency or the trade market for a top starter.

 

I hardly ever buy that line about "handling the pressure" under a tough media and fanbase, but I'm pretty sure it's true with some players.

[Hugh2]

The Red Sox are still a big market team. They're not quiet the Dodgers and definitely not the Mets but they're top-tier spenders 95% of the time year in and year out. We know they reset this year, we know they will go back over, we know their plan was to rebuild and reset. They're not taking the slow path decades route they just aren't.

 

I can't believe that the Sox are going to reset, be looking at another 100 million to spend next year, and not go for a real upgrade.

Why? Why do you say such things Hugh, THIS IS MADNESS!!!!

 

Well, it's simple, Resetting this year means the Sox would be ok staying over for a few years, the latest they would want to reset is in 2025. In 2025 the Sox will have only $58 million dollars COMMITTED while the Luxury tax (the 1st threshold) will be up to $241 million dollars.

 

That leaves the Sox with $183 hypothetical dollars to spend next year. Now of course they won't go over the largest threshold and have arbitration costs and other costs to deal with but if history is a precedent and we take these numbers in the Sox are poised for a much larger splash than just Sonny Gray. I wouldn't mind the signing if it was him PLUS a better pitcher.

 

Next year is pretty stacked. Ohtani, Urias, Nola, Giolito, Snell, Montgomery, Gray, and others. It's also widely speculated that Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be posted, and he might just be the best pitcher out of that entire group. Scouts believe he is an ACE.

 

I expect a very different rotation heading into 2025.

Edited May 10, 2023 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Hugh2]

57.5 million dollars committed in 2025 not to spend****

[Nick]

The Red Sox are still a big market team. They're not quiet the Dodgers and definitely not the Mets but they're top-tier spenders 95% of the time year in and year out. We know they reset this year, we know they will go back over, we know their plan was to rebuild and reset. They're not taking the slow path decades route they just aren't.

 

I can't believe that the Sox are going to reset, be looking at another 100 million to spend next year, and not go for a real upgrade.

Why? Why do you say such things Hugh, THIS IS MADNESS!!!!

 

Well, it's simple, Resetting this year means the Sox would be ok staying over for a few years, the latest they would want to reset is in 2025. In 2025 the Sox will have only $58 million dollars COMMITTED while the Luxury tax (the 1st threshold) will be up to $241 million dollars.

 

That leaves the Sox with $183 hypothetical dollars to spend next year. Now of course they won't go over the largest threshold and have arbitration costs and other costs to deal with but if history is a precedent and we take these numbers in the Sox are poised for a much larger splash than just Sonny Gray. I wouldn't mind the signing if it was him PLUS a better pitcher.

 

Next year is pretty stacked. Ohtani, Urias, Nola, Giolito, Snell, Montgomery, Gray, and others. It's also widely speculated that Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be posted, and he might just be the best pitcher out of that entire group. Scouts believe he is an ACE.

 

I expect a very different rotation heading into 2025.

 

I seriously doubt that Sox will spend additional $100M for 2024.

 

With the tax payroll limit increase of $4M, accounting for bump in the contractual obligation to Devers ($11.6M), letting Kike ($10M) and Duvall ($7M) go to free agency, and not accounting for other arbitration raises (mainly Verdugo and Pivetta), I only see $50M available. Now the Sox may break the first thresh hold (set at $257M) for additional $20M, I doubt they would go another $20M (set at $277M), bringing the spending increase to $90M.

 

You are correct about much of payroll burden coming off the books for 2025. We can even alleviate that somewhat by trading away Story if a suitable replacement can be found. We may not be released 100% of his obligation but with Mayer, Yorke and others on the horizon, it maybe something Sox will think about. He's not at 10 year and I don't see a no trade clause in his contract.

 

It pays to have short term deals and developing young players.

 

Bloom can target couple of expensive replacements.

Edited May 11, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

If history has anything to do with what we do going forward, we will never go way over the tax line, even for one year, we will never stay over for 3 years and pay the max tax plus give up draft slots and we will reset in 1-2 years after going over.

 

I do see us going over some, next year. I don't see us trading Story, unless we treat him like Price and include a top player with him (NOT!)

 

We do not have huge long term deals holding us down, and maybe the Devers deal never holds us down. We have a lot of 1-2 year deals that offer management a lot of flexibility to pounce on one big guy, if they feel he's the guy they want.

 

We apparently "overpaid" for Yoshida, because we really wanted him. Maybe there just hasn't been a player they want enough to outbid everyone. Maybe there won't be next year, either.

 

I think our budget looks much better than in 2019. I think our farm looks much better, but that has yet to be proven. I'm thrilled we kept Devers. I like the direction we are headed, despite the major bumps along the way.

 

I think we can win a ring, again, and pretty soon, but we will need some young guys to turn into stars, and then supplement with FAs or a big trade... or both.

[Larry Cook]

In terms of pure stuff, mata, and winkleman will be a very good starters, if they can ever master command and control!!!! I don’t see it with drohan, but maybe I need to see him pitch more. Everything else looks like a bullpen arm at best to me.

[moonslav59]

In terms of pure stuff, mata, and winkleman will be a very good starters, if they can ever master command and control!!!! I don’t see it with drohan, but maybe I need to see him pitch more. Everything else looks like a bullpen arm at best to me.

 

soxprospects.com as updated their profiles:

 

5. Drohan: Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Even that projection might be light as there is a chance he takes another step forward with his stuff in the future. Already took a massive step forward during the 2022-23 offseason adding a cutter and increasing his velocity by a full grade. Now profiles as an athletic left-hander who will show four average-or-better pitches and a solid command and control profile. Strong pitchability and pitch utility. Can show hitters four unique pitches in distinct velocity bands that move in different directions. Changeup is a major league-quality out pitch and gives him a weapon against right-handed hitters. Cutter and curveball both are effective also and will flash bat-missing ability. Fastball is very effective at generating weak contact.

 

6. Mata Projects as a back end starter or multi-inning relief arm with premium stuff to handle a late inning role if necessary. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Still has a wide range of outcomes as he makes his return from Tommy John surgery. Raw stuff is back, but feel for secondaries and command come and go within outings. Might be able to start, but could be more effective in shorter bursts out of the bullpen. Delivery still has effort and we need to see how his stuff holds up over longer, 5-to-6-inning stints and when pitching on a consistent starter's schedule. Will show the potential for a true four-pitch mix with two potential plus offerings. Has shown the ability to miss bats with all four pitches at various points in his career. Harnessing command of his arsenal will be key for his development. Injury risk had become a concern even pre-Tommy John surgery, as he last made it through a full season healthy in 2017. Tommy John Surgery in April 2021 clouds future starter profile.

 

8. Perales Potential major league starter. Ceiling of a number two starter. Wide variance arm with a high-ceiling and low-floor. Has shown among the best raw stuff of any arm in the system and was identified by scouts as the top pitching prospect in the Florida Complex League in 2022. Will flash two plus pitches and three at least above-average pitches. All have shown bat-missing ability. Next step in his development is finding consistency with his delivery and showing he can handle a full season's workload. (Not recently updated.)

 

10. Walter Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Will show a starter's arsenal with three average-or-better pitches and the ability to turn over a lineup, but does not have a typical starter's delivery. Control is already above-average-to-plus and command should get to at least average. You can debate whether he fits better as a starter or reliever depending on the day you see him. Has some traits that would push him to each potential outcome, but has the makings of a major league-caliber arm either way. If pushed to the bullpen, combination of stuff and handedness gives him a decent floor.

 

14. Wikelman Potential swingman capable of starting or providing length out of the bullpen. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Wide-range of outcomes due to lack of consistency and where he is in the development process. Potential for three above-average-to-better pitches, but a long way to go to get there and must significantly improve command and control to reach his ceiling. Still learning how to pitch, but is not as raw as some comparable arms age-wise in the system. Has simplified his delivery, which had a lot of moving parts, which should make it easier for him to keep his arm in sync with the rest of his body. If command does not improve, that, along with his size and delivery, could push him to a short relief bullpen role.

 

16. Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz Ingredients for a potential back-end starter, but there is a wide gap between what he is and what he could be. Already shows a four-pitch mix, with his fastball and curveball showing the most potential. Needs to improve his changeup and slider and physically mature to take the next step in his development.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

That leaves the Sox with $183 hypothetical dollars to spend next year. Now of course they won't go over the largest threshold and have arbitration costs and other costs to deal with but if history is a precedent and we take these numbers in the Sox are poised for a much larger splash than just Sonny Gray. I wouldn't mind the signing if it was him PLUS a better pitcher.

 

Next year is pretty stacked. Ohtani, Urias, Nola, Giolito, Snell, Montgomery, Gray, and others. It's also widely speculated that Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be posted, and he might just be the best pitcher out of that entire group. Scouts believe he is an ACE.

 

Good stuff. It definitely sounds like Yamamoto should be the Red Sox's target. The Red Sox will have the money for him too. Get an ace like Yamamoto and surround him with developing pitchers like Bello, Whitlock, Houck, and Drohan, and the Red Sox could finally have a championship caliber starting staff.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Yamamoto is 24 years old, that is nice. But he is 5'10" and I don't know how that plays with the Red Sox front office. So many scouts today prefer the bigger SP, the 6'3 or 6'4 guy.

[notin]

Yamamoto is 24 years old, that is nice. But he is 5'10" and I don't know how that plays with the Red Sox front office. So many scouts today prefer the bigger SP, the 6'3 or 6'4 guy.

 

Tommy LaSorda once said almost exact same thing about a young Dominican righty that the team went on to deal away for Delino DeShields…

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Although, what is interesting about Pedro is that while he was an incredibly talented and dominant starter for a period of time, his decline set in perhaps a little earlier than you might expect and that could have been due to his smaller stature. For the Mets, Pedro only had one big year, he is pretty mediocre beyond that one big year--injuries and ineffectiveness--and one could also argue that Pedro began declining in his last year as a Red Sox.

 

In contrast to Pedro, Randy Johnson's dominance continued for a longer period of time in his 30s and maybe this had something to do with Randy Johnson being a bigger pitcher than Pedro. How many great seasons did Pedro have from age 32 (last year with Boston) to the end of his career? Not as many as we might expect.

 

I think Pedro reinforces the point that you don't want smaller SPs, you want bigger bodies. If you have a really good SP, but small like Pedro, you might not want to sign that pitcher to a long term deal that would take that pitcher into his mid-30s.

Edited May 12, 2023 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Nick]

My projected Sox rotations:

 

2024:

1. Sonny Gray

2. Chris Sale

3. Bryan Bello

4. Garrett Whitlock

5. Nick Pivetta

6. Kutter Crawford/Shane Drohan

 

2025:

1. Sonny Gray

2. Bryan Bello

3. Garrett Whitlock

4. Kutter Crawford

5. Shane Drohan

6, Bryan Mata, Brandon Walter

 

2026

Maybe Perales or Wikelman break in.

 

2027

Maybe E R-C, Noah Dean or Dalton Rogers

 

Do you continue to think Houck belongs in the bullpen? I'm a Whitlock fan but Houck has better stats.

 

Game 7 of the World Series, would you pick Pivetta over Houck? If not, I don't see your logic here.

 

Isn't the whole idea as Sox management, fulfilling their fiduciary responsibility to put out there your top 5 starters? Don't they owe it to the fans? But especially to the position players?

 

This has been a difficult year for the starters particularly with all the injuries. With Paxton returning, things should get clearer.

 

If this was the Rays, they'd trade Pivetta in July.

Edited May 12, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Although, what is interesting about Pedro is that while he was an incredibly talented and dominant starter for a period of time, his decline set in perhaps a little earlier than you might expect and that could have been due to his smaller stature. For the Mets, Pedro only had one big year, he is pretty mediocre beyond that one big year--injuries and ineffectiveness--and one could also argue that Pedro began declining in his last year as a Red Sox.

 

In contrast to Pedro, Randy Johnson's dominance continued for a longer period of time in his 30s and maybe this had something to do with Randy Johnson being a bigger pitcher than Pedro. How many great seasons did Pedro have from age 32 (last year with Boston) to the end of his career? Not as many as we might expect.

 

I think Pedro reinforces the point that you don't want smaller SPs, you want bigger bodies. If you have a really good SP, but small like Pedro, you might not want to sign that pitcher to a long term deal that would take that pitcher into his mid-30s.

 

Pedro did have one last good season at age 33 and from age 30 to 33, he pitched 820 Innings (4 yrs) with a 2.83 ERA and an amazing 160 ERA+.

 

I think pitching very well fromm 30-33 beats most pitchers by a mile. Sure, one can find many who did great well beyond 33, but I would not say Pedro aged, poorly.

 

Also, when looking at Pedro's ERA, you have to factor in the steroid era and what offenses were doing back in those day. That's where the ERA+ shows just how dominating he was.

 

He had a 173 ERA+ for a 10 year stretch ('95-'04.)

 

Since the 1950's...

 

291 Pedro 2000

271 Maddux 1994

260 Maddux 1995

243 Pedro 1999

229 Gooden 1985

226 Clemens 2005

223 Verlander 2022

222 Greinke 2015

219 Pedro 1997 3 of the top 9 slots!

218 deGrom 2018

217 Snell 2018

...

211 Pedro 2003 & Clemens 1990

...

202 Pedro 2002

 

Pedro led the league in ERA+ for 5 seasons: 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003

 

[notin]

Do you continue to think Houck belongs in the bullpen? I'm a Whitlock fan but Houck has better stats.

 

Game 7 of the World Series, would you pick Pivetta over Houck? If not, I don't see your logic here.

 

Isn't the whole idea as Sox management, fulfilling their fiduciary responsibility to put out there your top 5 starters? Don't they owe it to the fans? But especially to the position players?

 

This has been a difficult year for the starters particularly with all the injuries. With Paxton returning, things should get clearer.

 

If this was the Rays, they'd trade Pivetta in July.

 

The same Rays who just picked up Zack Littell?

[moonslav59]

Do you continue to think Houck belongs in the bullpen? I'm a Whitlock fan but Houck has better stats.

 

Game 7 of the World Series, would you pick Pivetta over Houck? If not, I don't see your logic here.

 

Isn't the whole idea as Sox management, fulfilling their fiduciary responsibility to put out there your top 5 starters? Don't they owe it to the fans? But especially to the position players?

 

This has been a difficult year for the starters particularly with all the injuries. With Paxton returning, things should get clearer.

 

If this was the Rays, they'd trade Pivetta in July.

 

Major boo-boo. I neglected to put Houck in the rotation.

[notin]

Although, what is interesting about Pedro is that while he was an incredibly talented and dominant starter for a period of time, his decline set in perhaps a little earlier than you might expect and that could have been due to his smaller stature. For the Mets, Pedro only had one big year, he is pretty mediocre beyond that one big year--injuries and ineffectiveness--and one could also argue that Pedro began declining in his last year as a Red Sox.

 

In contrast to Pedro, Randy Johnson's dominance continued for a longer period of time in his 30s and maybe this had something to do with Randy Johnson being a bigger pitcher than Pedro. How many great seasons did Pedro have from age 32 (last year with Boston) to the end of his career? Not as many as we might expect.

 

I think Pedro reinforces the point that you don't want smaller SPs, you want bigger bodies. If you have a really good SP, but small like Pedro, you might not want to sign that pitcher to a long term deal that would take that pitcher into his mid-30s.

 

 

You could write that entire post and not change a word (except “Mets”) about CC Sabathia, and he was a mountain of a human being.

 

Stature might have contributed to Pedro’s decline, but it’s hard to say. Pitchers are capable of just falling apart. I’ve said it before - nothing ruins a pitcher more than pitching…

[moonslav59]

You could write that entire post and not change a word (except “Mets”) about CC Sabathia, and he was a mountain of a human being.

 

Stature might have contributed to Pedro’s decline, but it’s hard to say. Pitchers are capable of just falling apart. I’ve said it before - nothing ruins a pitcher more than pitching…

 

I don't think Pedro fell apart any earlier than the league norm, and if you look at his age 30-33 numbers, one could argue he aged better than most, no matter what he did after 33.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

From the age of 33 onwards, pedro only had one exceptional year, proving that Theo was right to not resign him.

 

In contrast, Justin Verlander has had about 5 exceptional years from age 33 onwards. Steve Carlton had about 5 exceptional years from 33 onwards. Randy Johnson had about 5-10 exceptional years from 33 onwards. The same thing is true of Nolan Ryan.

 

Can we find a smaller pitcher, comparable to Pedro in size, who did what Justin Verlander, Steve Carlton, Randy Johnson, and Nolan Ryan did from age 33 onwards?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The best I could do: Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux. Glavine had one exceptional year after age 33 and several pretty good years. Maddux had several exceptional seasons after age 33. Both are listed as 6'0" while Pedro is listed as 5'11"

 

I think Maddux is the best example of a smaller pitcher who continued to have dominant seasons after 33, but it is hard to find these guys.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The thing about Yamamoto is that even though he is 5'10" he is only 24 years old and the Red Sox would have him through his prime seasons. It is not like they would give him a 15 year contract. A 6 year contract is a more reasonable expectation. So even if it is true that smaller starting pitchers don't age as well as bigger guys, the Red Sox wouldn't have to worry about that for the first contract.

[moonslav59]

Is this really a better homegrown/acquired before MLB experience pitching system than recent years?

 

2023

Bello

Whitlock (Rule 5)

Houck

Crawford

Winckowski (Trade)

Perales

E R-C

Mata

Walter

Wikelman

Murphy

Guerrero

Fernandez

Ort (MiLB Rule 5)

Kelly (MiLB FA)

 

2018

ERod (Trade)

Beeks

Houck

Barnes

Workman

Walden

H Velazquez

B Johnson

Poyner

Groome

Mata

DHern

Cuevas

Lakins

Shawaryn

Feltman

Scherff

 

2013

Lester

Buchholz

D Bard

Alex Wilson

Workman

Webster and de la Rosa (Trade)

Owens

Ranaudo

 

2007

Lester

Papelbon

Buchholz

Dice-K (IFA)

Masterson

Bard

Okajima (IFA)

Delcarmen

Gabbard

Hagadone

 

2004

Lowe

Lester

Papelbon

DiNardo

A Alvarez

[notin]

From the age of 33 onwards, pedro only had one exceptional year, proving that Theo was right to not resign him.

 

In contrast, Justin Verlander has had about 5 exceptional years from age 33 onwards. Steve Carlton had about 5 exceptional years from 33 onwards. Randy Johnson had about 5-10 exceptional years from 33 onwards. The same thing is true of Nolan Ryan.

 

Can we find a smaller pitcher, comparable to Pedro in size, who did what Justin Verlander, Steve Carlton, Randy Johnson, and Nolan Ryan did from age 33 onwards?

 

 

6’0” 170lb Warren Spahn was 218-247 3.20 from age 33 on…

[illinoisredsox]

6’0” 170lb Warren Spahn was 218-247 3.20 from age 33 on…

 

Small typo - Spahn was 218-147 over his age 33+ seasons.

 

However, unlike the guys mentioned above, he really didn’t start his major league career until age 25; he only had a couple minor league seasons out of high school and a brief cup of coffee with the Braves in 1942 prior to spending the next 3 years throwing grenades in Europe instead of baseballs.

[notin]

Small typo - Spahn was 218-147 over his age 33+ seasons.

 

However, unlike the guys mentioned above, he really didn’t start his major league career until age 25; he only had a couple minor league seasons out of high school and a brief cup of coffee with the Braves in 1942 prior to spending the next 3 years throwing grenades in Europe instead of baseballs.

 

Also citing examples from over 70 years ago really emphasizes the point about how rare it is…

[moonslav59]

Also citing examples from over 70 years ago really emphasizes the point about how rare it is…

 

Greg Maddux was 6-0 170.

[notin]

Greg Maddux was 6-0 170.

 

It’s a size that works for Braves’ pitchers.

 

They don’t have anyone that small now. Spencer Strider is listed at 6’0”, but also at 215lbs. Radial Iglesias is probably their thinnest frame, but he’s also 6’2”…

[moonslav59]

It’s a size that works for Braves’ pitchers.

 

They don’t have anyone that small now. Spencer Strider is listed at 6’0”, but also at 215lbs. Radial Iglesias is probably their thinnest frame, but he’s also 6’2”…

 

Just saying, you don't have to go back 70 years. Maddux turned 33 in 1999.

 

Those next 5 years:

34 GS per year

3.24 ERA (136 ERA+)

1.167 WHIP

3.40 FIP

4.03 K:BB

[moonslav59]

Just saying, you don't have to go back 70 years. Maddux turned 33 in 1999.

 

Those next 5 years:

34 GS per year

3.24 ERA (136 ERA+)

1.167 WHIP

3.40 FIP

4.03 K:BB

 

Age 33-42:

34 GS/yr

3.69 ERA

1.189 WHIP

3.9 K:BB