Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[notin]

Aside from Sale, there isn't much left to blame on DD. Maybe the lack of talent in the high minors, but Bloom made enough trades (or should have) to fix that.

 

Agreed.

 

I get he will see something in some prospects that I - as a non-scout - won’t. But really so far his trades outside of Pivetta have not yielded much pitching help for now or in the future. Even the supplemental bullpen arms in 2021 were temperamental at best.

 

Although I think the jury is still out on Winckowski…

[moonslav59]

Aside from Sale, there isn't much left to blame on DD. Maybe the lack of talent in the high minors, but Bloom made enough trades (or should have) to fix that.

 

That is a valid point, but one can also point to the fact that from the day DD took over, until the Bello call-up, the only real impactful pitcher to come up from the farm was Houck.

 

The lasting effect of such a long drought is significant.

 

In DD's defense, he did not trade away Houck, Bello, Crawford, Mata, Walter, Wikelman, Murphy and Perales.

 

The vast majority of our best young pitchers are products of DD. Only Whitlock, Wink and some far-away prospects are on Bloom.

 

He deserves much criticism for this.

[Bellhorn04]

Not signing any free agent starters for longer than a year since Bloom took over is looking like a good strategy financially, but not so good competitively.

[moonslav59]

Agreed.

 

I get he will see something in some prospects that I - as a non-scout - won’t. But really so far his trades outside of Pivetta have not yielded much pitching help for now or in the future. Even the supplemental bullpen arms in 2021 were temperamental at best.

 

Although I think the jury is still out on Winckowski…

 

The Whitlock pick was huge, but your point is still valid even with him added.

 

Whitlock

Pivetta

Wink

Kluber

 

This is all we currently have as SP'ers from Bloom.

 

He has boosted the pen, and we may need them to be top 5 to have any chance.

 

Having a 13 man staff should help, especially with a few RP'ers who can go 80-110 innings (Houck, Schreiber, Wink, Crawford...)

[moonslav59]

Not signing any free agent starters for longer than a year since Bloom took over is looking like a good strategy financially, but not so good competitively.

 

Only the Wacha/Hill signing year looked like a plus for the money.

 

There wasn't much money in 2020 and 2021 to do much better.

 

The 2022 and 2023 choices have been more towards everyday players, but when you just lost Betts and Bogey/JD and Devers was a must sign, it's hard to rob Peter to pay Paul.

 

It's still early. Maybe the rotation will settle down, but we need to use (not overuse) the pen, when we need it. We have a few long men, once Whitlock and Bello/Paxton join the rotation, so maybe that will help.

[mvp 78]

I don't disagree, and if you are not going to draft pitchers, you better sign and get right your pitcher signings.

 

In terms of FA signings, Bloom has spent a pretty big percentage of his winter budgets on SP'ers. The problem was, in many cases, he needed 2-3 SP'ers and the budget was what it was.

 

It is HIS budget. He is not doing his job if he can't build an adequate rotation.

 

2020 - SUCKED

2021 - It was good because they lucked into amazing health.

2022 - Underwhelming. Below average!

2023 - Early returns are horrible.

[mvp 78]

Agreed.

 

I get he will see something in some prospects that I - as a non-scout - won’t. But really so far his trades outside of Pivetta have not yielded much pitching help for now or in the future. Even the supplemental bullpen arms in 2021 were temperamental at best.

 

Although I think the jury is still out on Winckowski…

 

Sure, AS A RELIEF PITCHER...

[mvp 78]

That is a valid point, but one can also point to the fact that from the day DD took over, until the Bello call-up, the only real impactful pitcher to come up from the farm was Houck.

 

The lasting effect of such a long drought is significant.

 

In DD's defense, he did not trade away Houck, Bello, Crawford, Mata, Walter, Wikelman, Murphy and Perales.

 

The vast majority of our best young pitchers are products of DD. Only Whitlock, Wink and some far-away prospects are on Bloom.

 

He deserves much criticism for this.

 

Betts, Vazquez, Xander, JD, Price, Nate... Any of these guys could have been traded for young pitching.

[mvp 78]

Not signing any free agent starters for longer than a year since Bloom took over is looking like a good strategy financially, but not so good competitively.

 

I don't cheer for the owner's checkbook. He's a rich bastard.

[sk7326]

Wikelman 2018 IFA (DD) - ETA 2025!

Perales 2019 IFA (DD) - ETA 2026!

ERC 2021 Draft - ETA 2026!

Paez 2021 IFA - ETA 2026!

 

Unless Mata or Walter is going to come up and be lights out, there is no path to fixing the rotation this year outside of the veterans turning it around.

 

Sale - who knows what he can do??? He just hasn't really pitched in forever.

Kluber - bad outing and should be able to at least be a mid-rotation guy.

Whitlock - hasn't been a fulltime starter in MLB.

Bello - showed promise after first few starts last season. Maybe a #2?

Paxton - always injured. Can't count on him for even 5 starts this season.

Pivetta - fine as a #5.

 

As we all said in the offseason, this rotation has a high ceiling, but a very low floor. Right now, we are seeing the floor.

 

The thing that has been surprising about Bloom more generally has been a fairly blase view of the run prevention more generally. Now some of this is home park related no doubt - in Tampa, where your home field is place fly balls go to die, that enables a certain approach. But the team has not spent much on top shelf pitching, while generally not being able to field a quality defensive team. That is not awesome. Now, Bloom tried to help the defense by signing Story. But even then 2022 it was a below average defensive team.

[mvp 78]

The thing that has been surprising about Bloom more generally has been a fairly blase view of the run prevention more generally. Now some of this is home park related no doubt - in Tampa, where your home field is place fly balls go to die, that enables a certain approach. But the team has not spent much on top shelf pitching, while generally not being able to field a quality defensive team. That is not awesome. Now, Bloom tried to help the defense by signing Story. But even then 2022 it was a below average defensive team.

 

HR - 102, 12th (100 is average)

1B - 108, 3rd

2B - 129, 1st

3B - 140, 5th

H - 112, 2nd

[moonslav59]

Betts, Vazquez, Xander, JD, Price, Nate... Any of these guys could have been traded for young pitching.

 

Agreed, and I called for a fire sale, last July.

 

I'm not sure it was Bloom's choice not to have one, but it's on him.

[moonslav59]

It is HIS budget. He is not doing his job if he can't build an adequate rotation.

 

2020 - SUCKED

2021 - It was good because they lucked into amazing health.

2022 - Underwhelming. Below average!

2023 - Early returns are horrible.

 

2020- the budget sucked.

2021- his rotation choices sucked

2022- his rotation choices did fine

2023- only signing Kluber and putting all the rest of the beans into the pen and offense is highly suspect.

[notin]

Not signing any free agent starters for longer than a year since Bloom took over is looking like a good strategy financially, but not so good competitively.

 

Well, it hurts competitively short term but it doesn’t hinder it long term…

[notin]

2020- the budget sucked.

2021- his rotation choices sucked

2022- his rotation choices did fine

2023- only signing Kluber and putting all the rest of the beans into the pen and offense is highly suspect.

 

His rotation choices in 2022 finished 18th in fWAR and 19th in FIP. Not sure that’s all that fine…

[moonslav59]

His rotation choices in 2022 finished 18th in fWAR and 19th in FIP. Not sure that’s all that fine…

 

He chose Wacha and Hill. He was given Sale, Nate, Crawford, Houck.

 

His choices of Pivetta and Whitlock came before 2022, but they did okay, too.

[mvp 78]

He chose Wacha and Hill. He was given Sale, Nate, Crawford, Houck.

 

His choices of Pivetta and Whitlock came before 2022, but they did okay, too.

 

They were 18th in fWAR. If they are injured throughout the season, it's partially due to roster construction. Not one starter last season had 2 fWAR. You can't build a rotation out of 1.5 fWAR guys. That's not good enough.

[moonslav59]

They were 18th in fWAR. If they are injured throughout the season, it's partially due to roster construction. Not one starter last season had 2 fWAR. You can't build a rotation out of 1.5 fWAR guys. That's not good enough.

 

Bloom certainly could have signed better pitchers and or not spent so much on Story.

 

I'm just saying the Wacha and Hill signings were good, and when you look at WAR/$$$, they were better than good, despite missing key moments to the season. He did NOT build a good rotation for 2022. I agree.

 

Overall, Bloom has done a very poor job building up the rotation, and he's had enough time and money (especially recently) to do so.

Edited April 4, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Bloom certainly could have signed better pitchers and or not spent so much on Story.

 

I'm just saying the Wacha and Hill signings were good, and when you look at WAR/$$$, they were better than good, despite missing key moments to the season.

 

Overall, Bloom has done a very poor job building up the rotation, and he's had enough time and money (especially recently) to do so.

 

He spent $18.5M and got 3.3 fWAR or $26.4M in value. WOW! He still didn't acquire a pitcher that had 2 fWAR! He still had a rotation that was 18th in the league and last in their division!

 

He needs to be able to use his budget to build a competitive rotation. To this point, he hasn't been able to. It looks like he lucked into 2021.

[moonslav59]

He spent $18.5M and got 3.3 fWAR or $26.4M in value. WOW! He still didn't acquire a pitcher that had 2 fWAR! He still had a rotation that was 18th in the league and last in their division!

 

He needs to be able to use his budget to build a competitive rotation. To this point, he hasn't been able to. It looks like he lucked into 2021.

 

My point does not negate this point.

 

I agree: he did not do enough to build up the rotation.

 

He did worse on the pen, despite the Strahm addition and Schreiber's emergence as a force.

 

His 2 signings did well. That's not the same as saying he built a strong rotation.

 

He was handed Sale and Nate. He was responsible for the rest.

[mvp 78]

My point does not negate this point.

 

I agree: he did not do enough to build up the rotation.

 

He did worse on the pen, despite the Strahm addition and Schreiber's emergence as a force.

 

His 2 signings did well. That's not the same as saying he built a strong rotation.

 

He was handed Sale and Nate. He was responsible for the rest.

 

I disagree that his two signees did well. The average starting rotation had 12 fWAR. A team of 5 Hill's (the better fWAR player between the two FA's) would only have 9 fWAR. That's still basically the bad rotation the Sox had last season (8.6 fWAR).

[Maxbialystock]

Bloom certainly could have signed better pitchers and or not spent so much on Story.

 

I'm just saying the Wacha and Hill signings were good, and when you look at WAR/$$$, they were better than good, despite missing key moments to the season. He did NOT build a good rotation for 2022. I agree.

 

Overall, Bloom has done a very poor job building up the rotation, and he's had enough time and money (especially recently) to do so.

 

For once in my tenure on talksox, I disagree with you. I think Bloom needs to build a system for finding and developing good pitching and to stay off the trail of all previous Sox GM's, which was simply to go out and buy pitchers, some of them expensive ones. Bloom helped build the system that has done extremely well for the Rays, but you don't build it overnight. It takes more time than he's had, which includes the 2020 covid nonseason.

 

I do agree this rotation stinks to high heaven. Brasier, whom everyone on talksox rightly despises, is pitching better than Kluber, Sale, and Crawford.

 

I also think the rotation wasted spring training in terms of prepping for the regular season.

[Bellhorn04]

And Wacha and Hill were just 1-season placekeepers, like Kluber is this year. Price tag was the most appealing feature.

[Bellhorn04]

I also think the rotation wasted spring training in terms of prepping for the regular season.

 

Why? What was wrong with Sale and Kluber's preparation? They seemed to follow the standard pattern of innings buildup, as did the staff in general, the ones who stayed healthy.

[moonslav59]

He spent $18.5M and got 3.3 fWAR or $26.4M in value. WOW! He still didn't acquire a pitcher that had 2 fWAR! He still had a rotation that was 18th in the league and last in their division!

 

He needs to be able to use his budget to build a competitive rotation. To this point, he hasn't been able to. It looks like he lucked into 2021.

 

The 2021 rotation was not a strength.

 

As for 2022, bWAR treats his additions a bit more kindly than fWAR, but the rotation was not a plus. I agree.

 

3.3 Wacha

2.7 Schreiber (pen)

2.6 Pivetta (a 2020 addition)

1.8 Whitlock (a 2021 addition)

1.6 Houck (DD carry-over)

1.5 Nate (DD carry-over)

0.8 Hill

 

[mvp 78]

And Wacha and Hill were just 1-season placekeepers, like Kluber is this year. Price tag was the most appealing feature.

 

Placekeeper for who? There's nobody close in the pipeline! It's not like they are waiting on the pitching version of Rafaela or Mayer or even Bleis.

[mvp 78]

The 2021 rotation was not a strength.

 

As for 2022, bWAR treats his additions a bit more kindly than fWAR, but the rotation was not a plus. I agree.

 

3.3 Wacha

2.7 Schreiber (pen)

2.6 Pivetta (a 2020 addition)

1.8 Whitlock (a 2021 addition)

1.6 Houck (DD carry-over)

1.5 Nate (DD carry-over)

0.8 Hill

 

 

It certainly doesn't treat Hill very well! Where's the value on that signing?

[moonslav59]

For once in my tenure on talksox, I disagree with you. I think Bloom needs to build a system for finding and developing good pitching and to stay off the trail of all previous Sox GM's, which was simply to go out and buy pitchers, some of them expensive ones. Bloom helped build the system that has done extremely well for the Rays, but you don't build it overnight. It takes more time than he's had, which includes the 2020 covid nonseason.

 

I do agree this rotation stinks to high heaven. Brasier, whom everyone on talksox rightly despises, is pitching better than Kluber, Sale, and Crawford.

 

I also think the rotation wasted spring training in terms of prepping for the regular season.

 

I'm not saying I like the idea or history of trading for aces over developing them. When we won each ring, except for 2018, we had some homegrown talent in the rotation, but even those wins needed a boost.

 

It takes a while to build up a system that churns our skilled pitchers, but I see little sign of ours getting there.

 

Our system did not produce Whitlock.

 

We have Houck and Bello to show for our system since Lester, Buch and Masterson. (One can argue for Kopech, but still...)

[moonslav59]

It certainly doesn't treat Hill very well! Where's the value on that signing?

 

It's 4.1 total vs 3.3 for fWAR.

 

Like a said ... "a bit more kindly, but...still not an [overall] plus."

 

His winter rotation choices in 2022 were better than 2020 and 2021. That doesn't mean they were great or enough.

[mvp 78]

It's 4.1 total vs 3.3 for fWAR.

 

Like a said ... "a bit more kindly, but...still not an [overall] plus."

 

His winter rotation choices in 2022 were better than 2020 and 2021. That doesn't mean they were great or enough.

 

You said:

 

I'm just saying the Wacha and Hill signings were good, and when you look at WAR/$$$, they were better than good, despite missing key moments to the season.

 

You can't do that for bWAR. Only FanGraphs assigns a $ value to fWAR. There is no $ value to bWAR. Even the fWAR one isn't really meant to be taken seriously IMO.

 

When you factor in injury prone pitchers, you also have to factor in the replacement level pitchers that will fill in for them.