A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

No, but it implies that ESPN has the correct answer, which would be the 3+ bWAR. Your ruling is denied.

 

"Implies" and a quarter will get you a gumball.

[moonslav59]

I know, it's unfair not counting 29 year olds making 18 mill!

 

Moncada wasn't 29, but he made more on day one.

[moonslav59]

Just take the L, loser.

 

Mr. Don't- make- it- personal shows his hypocrisy.

[moonslav59]

No, but it implies that ESPN has the correct answer, which would be the 3+ bWAR. Your ruling is denied.

 

He just mentioned one source not to check. He did not imply that was the only source that counts.

 

I'm glad you are not a judge.

[mvp 78]

Mr. Don't- make- it- personal shows his hypocrisy.

 

I know it must be hard taking L's first thing in the morning. Go have another cup of coffee though.

[Bobe2]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35712844/noah-song-discharged-navy-set-report-phillies-camp someone should be fired

[Bellhorn04]

Moncada wasn't 29, but he made more on day one.

 

Moncada was 29 minus 10.

[notin]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35712844/noah-song-discharged-navy-set-report-phillies-camp someone should be fired

 

Why? For not predicting a pitcher would be selected after a 3 year hiatus?

 

 

At any rate, Rotoworld agrees with Notin on this one.

 

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/baseball/mlb/player/52810/noah-song

[moonslav59]

I know it must be hard taking L's first thing in the morning. Go have another cup of coffee though.

 

It wasn't an "L," and I don't drink coffee.

 

It was the "loser" comment you now ignore, which is what you do.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Why? For not predicting a pitcher would be selected after a 3 year hiatus?

 

All 3 year hiatuses are not created equal.

[mvp 78]

All 3 year hiatuses are not created equal.

 

Was he working with a pitching instructor that we don't know about?

[Bellhorn04]

Was he working with a pitching instructor that we don't know about?

 

No idea. But I'm guessing he will be now.

[mvp 78]

No idea. But I'm guessing he will be now.

 

Good. I hope being selected in the Rule 5 draft doesn't hinder his career.

[moonslav59]

Good. I hope being selected in the Rule 5 draft doesn't hinder his career.

 

I still think Arauz would have become an all star had we not selected him Rule 5.

 

[mvp 78]

I still think Arauz would have become an all star had we not selected him Rule 5.

 

 

I think it's a little different for a pitcher that hasn't pitched above rookie ball.

 

Song was a guy that had mid-rotation potential. Now, he'll be lucky to stick in the pen. It's definitely changing his trajectory and not for the better.

 

Normally, I don't buy into the "they ruined Cla Meredith" type stuff, but I do think this isn't the best scenario for him.

[moonslav59]

I think it's a little different for a pitcher that hasn't pitched above rookie ball.

 

Song was a guy that had mid-rotation potential. Now, he'll be lucky to stick in the pen. It's definitely changing his trajectory and not for the better.

 

Normally, I don't buy into the "they ruined Cla Meredith" type stuff, but I do think this isn't the best scenario for him.

 

I think some of that stuff is overblown. I do think many of these guys would be better served going through a natural progression through the minors, but I'm not sure many, if any, have been ruined by being selected Rule 5. They still get workouts under the best coaching in the system (maybe not the best for them)and pitch simulations with the best hitters in the game. I doubt they force anyone into pitching more IP than they should have- more likely it is almost always less real game innings, which can harm or stunt growth, but probably not in a long-lasting manner.

[moonslav59]

Here is my ranking for the bottom of our 40 Man Roster (not to be confused with who will be DFA'd next)

 

1. Ort

2. Brasier

3. Hamilton

4. Chang

5. Bleier

6. Murphy

7. Mills

8. Dalbec

9. Winckowski

10. Paxton

 

The DFA list would consider positional needs and years of team control and not just skills and value.

 

As reference, here is a rough list of the bottom players in recent years on opening day:

 

2022: RHern, R Garza, Bazardo, Duran, Downs, DHern, Seabold, Arauz, TShaw, Valdez

2021: J Rosario, H Potts, Brewer, Arauz, M Wilson, Chavis, E Bazardo, Seabold, Brice, Valdez

2020: KHart, Chatham, Shawaryn, Mazza, T-Z Lin, Lucroy, Araus, Chavis, Valdez, Covey, Brewer, Brice, MHall, Walden, Peraza

2019: Reyes, Shepherd, DHern, Lin, Chavis, Lakins, poyner, Walden, STravis, Brewer

 

[mvp 78]

Here is my ranking for the bottom of our 40 Man Roster (not to be confused with who will be DFA'd next)

 

1. Ort

2. Brasier

3. Hamilton

4. Chang

5. Bleier

6. Murphy

7. Mills

8. Dalbec

9. Winckowski

10. Paxton

 

The DFA list would consider positional needs and years of team control and not just skills and value.

 

As reference, here is a rough list of the bottom players in recent years on opening day:

 

2022: RHern, R Garza, Bazardo, Duran, Downs, DHern, Seabold, Arauz, TShaw, Valdez

2021: J Rosario, H Potts, Brewer, Arauz, M Wilson, Chavis, E Bazardo, Seabold, Brice, Valdez

2020: KHart, Chatham, Shawaryn, Mazza, T-Z Lin, Lucroy, Araus, Chavis, Valdez, Covey, Brewer, Brice, MHall, Walden, Peraza

2019: Reyes, Shepherd, DHern, Lin, Chavis, Lakins, poyner, Walden, STravis, Brewer

 

 

I think Bleier will surprise you. He has a career 3.06 ERA. I'd have him above a lot of the other relievers, maybe even Joely.

[moonslav59]

I think Bleier will surprise you. He has a career 3.06 ERA. I'd have him above a lot of the other relievers, maybe even Joely.

 

I like Bleier, but his cost and age moved him up. I could see him swapping places with Paxton or Wink. The bottom 5 are pretty closely bunched.

[notin]

Here is my ranking for the bottom of our 40 Man Roster (not to be confused with who will be DFA'd next)

 

1. Ort

2. Brasier

3. Hamilton

4. Chang

5. Bleier

6. Murphy

7. Mills

8. Dalbec

9. Winckowski

10. Paxton

 

The DFA list would consider positional needs and years of team control and not just skills and value.

 

As reference, here is a rough list of the bottom players in recent years on opening day:

 

2022: RHern, R Garza, Bazardo, Duran, Downs, DHern, Seabold, Arauz, TShaw, Valdez

2021: J Rosario, H Potts, Brewer, Arauz, M Wilson, Chavis, E Bazardo, Seabold, Brice, Valdez

2020: KHart, Chatham, Shawaryn, Mazza, T-Z Lin, Lucroy, Araus, Chavis, Valdez, Covey, Brewer, Brice, MHall, Walden, Peraza

2019: Reyes, Shepherd, DHern, Lin, Chavis, Lakins, poyner, Walden, STravis, Brewer

 

 

Murphy and Song were teammates on that 2019 Lowell team.

 

Song three w17 IP with a 1.06 ERA, 0.882 WHIP and 3.8 K/BB. Murphy pitched 33.1 IP with a 1.08 ERA, 0.900 WHIP and 4.86 K/BB. Yet one guy is at the bottom of the 40 man and the other was an egregious error to leave u protected…

[moonslav59]

Murphy and Song were teammates on that 2019 Lowell team.

 

Song three w17 IP with a 1.06 ERA, 0.882 WHIP and 3.8 K/BB. Murphy pitched 33.1 IP with a 1.08 ERA, 0.900 WHIP and 4.86 K/BB. Yet one guy is at the bottom of the 40 man and the other was an egregious error to leave u protected…

 

Even if we knew Song would be able to pitch, I'm still not sure it would be worth protecting him. I do think he's more promising than several players on our roster, but having to keep him on the 26 seems like a move for teams in a total rebuild/no compete situations.

 

It's a shame we may not get to see him develop, but the unique situation he was in was something we knew about when we got him. I can't see why any tears should be shed, but iof he ends up doing very well, the "what ifs" may become deafening.

[moonslav59]

Is there really a Japanese player better than Ohtani?

 

Best players on Team Japan that aren't Shohei Ohtani

WWW.MLB.COM

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Mike Trout started talking to Shohei Ohtani about the World Baseball Classic in the middle of last season. And Ohtani, playing for Japan, told his Angels teammate, the Team USA captain, something that left Trout in disbelief. "Talking to Shohei about that team, he tried to tell me that he

 

Yoshida was listed 4th...

 

The WBC will be the first look a lot of MLB fans get at Yoshida before Japan's contact king joins the Red Sox for the 2023 season. Yoshida is a two-time batting champion in NPB's Pacific League, but he's not just a slap hitter. He drives the ball.

 

The 29-year-old lefty swinger is one of the hardest hitters in Japan after Murakami. Not only did he bat .335 for Orix in 2022, he also slugged 21 homers and posted a 1.008 OPS. Yoshida hit over .320, slugged over .500 and had an OPS over .950 in each of his last five seasons in NPB. He averaged 22 home runs a year over that time.

 

Yoshida's plate discipline is also extraordinary. In 2022, he walked nearly twice as often as he struck out: 80 walks to only 41 strikeouts. And that's his worst ratio in the last three years, because in 2020 and '21, he had more than twice as many walks as K's (72 walks to 29 strikeouts in '20, 58 walks to 26 strikeouts in '21). That's 210 walks and only 96 strikeouts in the three seasons combined. Juan Soto-type numbers.

[mvp 78]

Murphy and Song were teammates on that 2019 Lowell team.

 

Song three w17 IP with a 1.06 ERA, 0.882 WHIP and 3.8 K/BB. Murphy pitched 33.1 IP with a 1.08 ERA, 0.900 WHIP and 4.86 K/BB. Yet one guy is at the bottom of the 40 man and the other was an egregious error to leave u protected…

 

I think they are both SUSPECTS!

[Bellhorn04]

Murphy and Song were teammates on that 2019 Lowell team.

 

Song three w17 IP with a 1.06 ERA, 0.882 WHIP and 3.8 K/BB. Murphy pitched 33.1 IP with a 1.08 ERA, 0.900 WHIP and 4.86 K/BB. Yet one guy is at the bottom of the 40 man and the other was an egregious error to leave u protected…

 

That's what mvp calls scouting the box scores. And a mighty small sample of them to boot...

[notin]

That's what mvp calls scouting the box scores. And a mighty small sample of them to boot...

 

Show me the larger sample of box scores that demonstrates why not protecting Song was a mistake…

 

But the point is some fans are freaking out about losing Song and ignoring that he wasn’t as good even back then as a guy the Sox kept and no one cares about. And that guy has kept pitching.

 

Although the bottom line is Philly would be phenomenally stupid to try to keep Song on the MLB roster for 162 games. 26 players isn’t that deep for a team defending a title and Song is much, much more likely to hinder than help in that regard.

 

Expect a deal so Philly can do the smart thing and let Song log a handful of innings in the minors…

[Bellhorn04]

Show me the larger sample of box scores that demonstrates why not protecting Song was a mistake…

 

But the point is some fans are freaking out about losing Song and ignoring that he wasn’t as good even back then as a guy the Sox kept and no one cares about. And that guy has kept pitching.

 

Although the bottom line is Philly would be phenomenally stupid to try to keep Song on the MLB roster for 162 games. 26 players isn’t that deep for a team defending a title and Song is much, much more likely to hinder than help in that regard.

 

Expect a deal so Philly can do the smart thing and let Song log a handful of innings in the minors…

 

Philly can restrict Song to low leverage situations. They can phantom DL him. They can return him, right?

 

And in any case they're a pretty safe bet to make the playoffs.

 

Edit re phantom DL: he has to be on the active roster for 90 days. But that's only half the season.

Edited February 23, 2023 by Bellhorn04

[moonslav59]

Show me the larger sample of box scores that demonstrates why not protecting Song was a mistake…

 

But the point is some fans are freaking out about losing Song and ignoring that he wasn’t as good even back then as a guy the Sox kept and no one cares about. And that guy has kept pitching.

 

Although the bottom line is Philly would be phenomenally stupid to try to keep Song on the MLB roster for 162 games. 26 players isn’t that deep for a team defending a title and Song is much, much more likely to hinder than help in that regard.

 

Expect a deal so Philly can do the smart thing and let Song log a handful of innings in the minors…

 

For decades and decades the roster was 25. Let’s not get too overzealous over the value of the 26th man on the roster.

[mvp 78]

Philly can restrict Song to low leverage situations. They can phantom DL him. They can return him, right?

 

And in any case they're a pretty safe bet to make the playoffs.

 

Edit re phantom DL: he has to be on the active roster for 90 days. But that's only half the season.

 

If they phantom DL him, the Sox will file a grievance. It would be pretty ugly.

[mvp 78]

Show me the larger sample of box scores that demonstrates why not protecting Song was a mistake…

 

But the point is some fans are freaking out about losing Song and ignoring that he wasn’t as good even back then as a guy the Sox kept and no one cares about. And that guy has kept pitching.

 

Although the bottom line is Philly would be phenomenally stupid to try to keep Song on the MLB roster for 162 games. 26 players isn’t that deep for a team defending a title and Song is much, much more likely to hinder than help in that regard.

 

Expect a deal so Philly can do the smart thing and let Song log a handful of innings in the minors…

 

Philly is trying to win a WS, for them to keep Song on the roster doesn't make more sense. I can see why WSH, PIT or OAK would stash him though. I think it's more likely that's how he sticks in MLB this season.

[mvp 78]

That's what mvp calls scouting the box scores. And a mighty small sample of them to boot...

 

Song was great in a SSS in 2019. So are many other pitchers. We have no idea what he would do against batters higher than rookie ball. He didn't even throw a pitch in Salem or Greenville. The jump to MLB is lightyears from that.