A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

Hopefully Mondesi will be ready soon to get back on the field so he can injure himself again…

 

He played wire to wire in 2020!

[mvp 78]

Since the start of 2018, Adalberto has 3 fewer AB's than Byron Buxton.

[Bellhorn04]

Hopefully Mondesi will be ready soon to get back on the field so he can injure himself again…

 

Now cut that out!

[mvp 78]

@SmittyOnMLB

Red Sox ticket sales are up 4.5 percent from this time last year, Sam Kennedy says

[mvp 78]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brayan-bello-is-primed-for-a-breakout-year/

 

With a healthy season, Bello's Steamer floor is projected to be:

 

117 IP

3.57 ERA

[Old Red]

I understand what you mean, I don't agree with it. Aside from Mata and Bleier, the guys you have listed don't generate much confidence in me. Kelly is ok, but is still largely unproven at the MLB level.

 

Crawford/Winckowski are probably just bullpen arms, but neither saw their stuff tick up in the pen last year. Maybe just AAAA guys?

Joely is hoping that his FIP is more indicative of his future performance, but he's still a career 4.50 ERA bullpen guy. Big whoop.

Ort/Brasier/Mills are DFA'able IMO.

Murphy/Walter need to at least show value at AAA before we can count on them for anything.

 

Again, what good is this numbers game, really? Is it THAT much better or just moving deck chairs? Changing guys on the margins of the 40 man didn't help the team in 2020 or 2022. Arguably, it wasn't the key to 2021's success either as the guys they brought up from the bottom of the 40 man all were terrible.

 

Probably more suspects than actual prospects. Quantity mostly, and not much else.

[moonslav59]

@SmittyOnMLB

Red Sox ticket sales are up 4.5 percent from this time last year, Sam Kennedy says

 

Less than inflation!

 

These guys are more than generous!

 

[Bellhorn04]

Less than inflation!

 

These guys are more than generous!

 

 

He said sales, not prices, but I'm wondering how he calculates the increase, number of tickets or gross revenue.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He said sales, not prices, but I'm wondering how he calculates the increase, number of tickets or gross revenue.

 

Sam shouldn't be allowed to count the number of tickets he gives away to his family.

[moonslav59]

What is a reasonable % expectation? 2021 seems like an aberration as none of the starting rotation got injured.

 

Only 9 starts from Sale (42 IP,) so that pushed him out of the top 10, and Perez & Richards were booted from the rotation.

 

Other than Nate (3.75 ERA in 32 GS), the rest of the rotation was meh:

4.74 ERod 31 GS/158 IP

4.53 Pivetta 30/155

5.22 Richards 22/110 as a starter

4.77 Perez 22/100 as SP

 

Maybe better depth, here, might have got us over the hump.

[moonslav59]

Top 6 starters since 2019 (numbers as starter only):

 

2022:

33 Pivetta 4.56

26 R Hill 4.27

23 Wacha 3.32

20 Nate 3.87

14 Wink 5.75

12 Crawford 5.43/ 11 Bello 4.82/ 9 Whitlock 4.15 (5 Seabold 11.29/ 4 Houck 4.32)

It's hard for me to think our 6-10 SP'ers in 2023 will do worse than this.

 

2021

32 Nate 3.75

31 ERod 4.77

30 Pivetta 4.56

22 Richards 5.22

22 Perez 4.77

13 Houck 3.68 & Sale 9 3.16

(#2-5 were very pedestrian.) #6 & 7 did well, but we had nothing after them, and Sale was hurt.

 

2020:

12 Perez 4.50

9 Nate 3.72

7 Godley 9.49

6 Mazza 5.01

5 Weber 7.11

4 Brewer 6.91

(Yuck-a-doodle-doo!)

 

2019

34 ERod 3.81

32 Porcello 5.52

25 Sale 4.40

22 Price 4.28

12 Nate 6.13

8 Velazquez 6.95/ 7 Johnson 5.09/ 6 Cashner 8.01/5 Chacin 7.90

(SP depth was horrific in 2019.)

 

The 2023 Rotation and 2022 Numbers

1. Sale n/a

2. Kluber 31 GS 4.34

3. Whitlock 4.15 as SP

4. Bello 4.82 as SP

5. Pivetta 4.56

6. Paxton n/a

 

7. Mata n/a or Houck 4.32 as SP

8. Crawford 5.43 as SP

9. Wink 5.75 as SP

10. Walter n/a

11. Murphy n/a

 

Edited February 20, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Less than inflation!

 

These guys are more than generous!

 

 

Ticket price increase was 1.5-2% apparently. I guess fans are vaguely more interested this year?

[moonslav59]

They will sell out almost all games, this year, so they charge what they can get. It’s the American way! Look at concert prices!

[mvp 78]

@CodifyBaseball

Chances of making playoffs in 2023 (per FanGraphs):

NYY 83.0%

HOU 82.1%

TB 69.3%

TOR 67.7%

CLE 54.1%

SEA 48.0%

MIN 46.4%

LAA 39.0%

TEX 33.0%

BOS 30.7%

CWS 27.8%

BAL 9.9%

KC 5.4%

DET 2.9%

OAK 0.9%

[mvp 78]

@JustinMLB

The Red Sox had a 38% projection to make the playoffs, in the 2021 preseason, FWIW

[moonslav59]

@JustinMLB

The Red Sox had a 38% projection to make the playoffs, in the 2021 preseason, FWIW

 

4 years in a row under 4O% to start the season!

[Bellhorn04]

4 years in a row under 4O% to start the season!

 

2 out of the first 3 were right, unfortunately.

[moonslav59]

2 out of the first 3 were right, unfortunately.

 

Let’s hope that becomes 2 out of 4 after 2023.

[Bellhorn04]

Let’s hope that becomes 2 out of 4 after 2023.

 

I certainly do.

[mvp 78]

If Chaim is building a team to compete, how can he justify this to Henry as being good enough unless this is what they are all expecting?

[mvp 78]

"The advanced metrics say we are going to be in 4th place, Chaim..."

 

"Yes, but if we can just keep the fans happy until football starts!"

 

"Brilliant..."

[Bellhorn04]

If Chaim is building a team to compete, how can he justify this to Henry as being good enough unless this is what they are all expecting?

 

Chaim thinks the projections are wrong.

[notin]

Chaim thinks the projections are wrong.

 

I imagine, like every FO, the Sox have their own projections. And it’s not like ZiPS or Steamer have any sort of outstanding track record that they shouldn’t be ignored in favor of alternative methods.

 

I mean, it’s not like their blowing off WAPM…

[notin]

"The advanced metrics say we are going to be in 4th place, Chaim..."

 

"Yes, but if we can just keep the fans happy until football starts!"

 

"Brilliant..."

 

 

So their projections aren’t in tune with the current state of the Patriots?

[mvp 78]

Chaim thinks the projections are wrong.

 

@SmittyOnMLB

Red Sox’s Sam Kennedy on 2023 projected standings: ‘They’re usually wrong’

 

They were right in 2020 and 2022. So I guess Sam Kennedy is usually wrong?

[mvp 78]

So their projections aren’t in tune with the current state of the Patriots?

 

Red Sox only need a few weeks of distractions. Bill O'Brien may make a few teams surprised early on. The offense was pretty good the last time he was around.

[Bellhorn04]

@smittyonmlb

red sox’s sam kennedy on 2023 projected standings: ‘they’re usually wrong’

 

they were right in 2020 and 2022. So i guess sam kennedy is usually wrong?

 

sss

[mvp 78]

The only surprising turn of events for me recently is that Tom Werner is no longer on my list of Red Sox villains. I'm glad to know that he's constantly pushing for a higher payroll and wants to win the WS every year.

[notin]

The only surprising turn of events for me recently is that Tom Werner is no longer on my list of Red Sox villains. I'm glad to know that he's constantly pushing for a higher payroll and wants to win the WS every year.

 

But he also foreclosed on a home for wayward puppies…

[mvp 78]

But he also foreclosed on a home for wayward puppies…

 

Those puppies were some bad hombres. It wasn't safe for the neighborhood.