A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

You undersell it.

 

This forum is a free-for-all mishmash of Dunning-Kruger, Recency Effect and Backfire Effect, coated lightly with the Bias Blind Spot.

 

I’d admit I’m just as guilty as the rest of you, but that would violate the Bias Blind Spot. So clearly, this applies to everyone else…

 

Texas actually has a pitcher named Dane Dunning and a (minor league) catcher named Jack Kruger.

[moonslav59]

Well even Zips projections have Devers with a higher OPS than his last two years. So everyone is betting on a career year from a 26 year old on the right side of his prime.

 

The over is .900 low .900 OPS. I don’t think that’s unrealistic at all.

 

His career best was .916 in 702 PAs (2019.) That was pre-prime, which often career bests occur, but I'm banking on Devers having a career best at age 26, 27 or 28- maybe all 3.

[notin]

Texas actually has a pitcher named Dane Dunning and a (minor league) catcher named Jack Kruger.

 

 

Experts in their craft. Both of them. Just ask them..

[jacksonianmarch]

I’d bet the under on Devers.

Only because he’s gonna play the Yankees less this year

[notin]

I’d bet the under on Devers.

Only because he’s gonna play the Yankees less this year

 

Actually, his career OPS vs the Yankees is only .769. Recently, it was .858 in 2022 and .816 in 2021. They’re not his whipping post.

 

His best opponent (100 PA min) is the Cleveland Guardians/Guardians with a career 1.086 OPS…

[Bobe2]

It hurts that $27M of that $211M is being paid to a pitcher who never pitches, but still think a $185M budget should not be a cellar-dweller, either. I share in your concerns and fears that this team might fail, badly, but I see some serious upside in a lot of the players on the 26 and 40 man roster.

 

As I've said before, I prefer quality to quantity, in a general sense, but having so many promising players has its benefits, too.

 

It sucks we play in the hardest division, but that is what it is, and now, we play them way less with the new schedule. We still need to do better than one or two to not finish last or to make the playoffs, but I'm not seeing any of the other 4 getting any stronger over 2022.

 

One thing that could very well happen: Turner, Yoshida, Duvall, McGuire/Wong, Mondesi and Casas could outplay the 2023 Bogey, JD, Vaz, JBJ/PHam and Hosmer and we could still finish last. Kluber, Whitlock and Bello could knock the socks off the 2023 Nate, Wacha and Hill and our rotation might still get worse. Our 2023 pen could blow away our 2022 pen, and we may still suck. All three could happen and we could still finish last! That's the pessimist view, but certainly possible.

 

Right now, I'm pretty optimistic, and I'm not forcing myself to be so. Honestly, I'm trying to be as objective as I can be. I truly believe all of the following things have a better chance at happening than not- not all will, but most should, and we don't need more than maybe half to happen to get over .500 and out of the cellar:

 

McGuire/Wong to do better than the 2020-2022 Vax/Plawecki

Casas > Dalbec/Hosmer

'23 Devers? 2020-2022 Devers

Yoshida> Pham/Cordero

Duvall > JBJ

Turner> 2020-2022 JD

2023 RF> 2022 RF

(Only 2B and SS look like significant losses.)

 

Sale/Paxton pitch more than 2020-2022 combined

Kluber > 2019-2022 Nate

Whitlock> Wacha/Wink

Bello> 2022 Bello/Crawford/Seabold

(Pivetta= 2021-2022 Pivetta)

 

2023 pen> any Sox pen since the first half of 2018.

 

That's the rosy view, and all certainly possible, as well, right?

I appreciate your enthusiasm for a team of players at the end of their careers, but I don’t agree that the new schedule will benefit the Sox, the west coast push overs have spent money on quality players, and should be competitive of course there will always be pushovers but every one else plays them as well, if your only concern is we finish over .500 that might happen but we will be no closer to the competition leading the division. This is a all new group of individuals that has not shown that they can play as a team, you must play as a team to win the 2013 team proved how important that is because they weren’t that good individually but as a team they were great

[moonslav59]

I appreciate your enthusiasm for a team of players at the end of their careers, but I don’t agree that the new schedule will benefit the Sox, the west coast push overs have spent money on quality players, and should be competitive of course there will always be pushovers but every one else plays them as well, if your only concern is we finish over .500 that might happen but we will be no closer to the competition leading the division. This is a all new group of individuals that has not shown that they can play as a team, you must play as a team to win the 2013 team proved how important that is because they weren’t that good individually but as a team they were great

 

The AL East is still the best division in MLB, especially the top 3.

 

We will play 24 less games vs the AL East, including 18 less vs NYY, TOR & TBR.

 

We will play almost the same vs AL West and AL Central opps.

 

We will play 26 more games vs the NL.

 

I see this alone as adding 3-4 wins, in theory. It's not wishful thinking. It is data supported.

[Bobe2]

The AL East is still the best division in MLB, especially the top 3.

 

We will play 24 less games vs the AL East, including 18 less vs NYY, TOR & TBR.

 

We will play almost the same vs AL West and AL Central opps.

 

We will play 26 more games vs the NL.

 

I see this alone as adding 3-4 wins, in theory. It's not wishful thinking. It is data supported.

 

I realize that, but it gets us no closer to the top of our division, the other teams will also benefit equally, they may have some tougher game than if they were playing us, but they will still be wins

Edited February 11, 2023 by Bobe2

[notin]

I realize that, but it gets us no closer to the top of our division, the other teams will also benefit equally, they may have some tougher game than if they were playing us, but they will still be wins

 

The other teams in the Sox division didn’t have a .342 winning percentage in the division…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I just cannot see how the new balanced schedule will help the Red Sox get closer to the playoffs, when all AL East teams will also be playing the same exact schedules.

 

Even if three wild cards come out of one division, the fifth-place club still won't make the postseason.

 

I guess the hope is that Boston will finish ahead of Baltimore in fourth... but then will still have to count on a total collapse from either Houston, Seattle or even Texas, who all might be as good as NY, Toronto and Tampa.

[moonslav59]

This is a all new group of individuals that has not shown that they can play as a team, you must play as a team to win the 2013 team proved how important that is because they weren’t that good individually but as a team they were great

 

I'm glad you mentioned the 2013 team, because that team had a lot of new players and many of the new ones were older...

 

Uehara 38, without him, we don't win

Dempster 36, retired after 2013 w 1 more yr on his contract

Vic 32, it was his last good year

Napoli 31, never came close to his 2013 .842 OPS again

Gomes 32, seriously declined after 2013

S Drew 30, .777 OPS/ .652 over rest of career

D Ross 36, pretty damn old for a catcher

Breslow 32

Peavy 32 (traded for him)

 

Carry-overs

37 Papi

34 Lackey

 

No AGon, Beckett, Crawford and several others from the 2012 team, and then Middy, Nava and Salty were replaced late in the season or in the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

I just cannot see how the new balanced schedule will help the Red Sox get closer to the playoffs, when all AL East teams will also be playing the same exact schedules.

 

Even if three wild cards come out of one division, the fifth-place club still won't make the postseason.

 

I guess the hope is that Boston will finish ahead of Baltimore in fourth... but then will still have to count on a total collapse from either Houston, Seattle or even Texas, who all might be as good as NY, Toronto and Tampa.

 

Increasing your odds at more wins has to help, even if it helps 3-4 other AL teams. The other 10 AL teams will have tougher schedules.

 

Our record vs non AL East teams, last year was 52-34! How can that not look like a major help to not play them as much? (24 less gms)

 

The other way to look at it: what team played worst vs the AL East in 2022?

 

9-24 TEX

11-23 LAA

26-50 BOS

11-21 DET

13-22 KCR

13-20 OAK

34-42 BAL

15-17 CWS & CLE

16-17 SEA

 

40-36 TBR- .526 is slightly lower than overall

17-15 HOU

43-33 TOR .566 is slightly lower than overall.

47-29 NYY ..618 % is slightly better than overall

 

 

Edited February 11, 2023 by moonslav59

[harmony]

Increasing your odds at more wins has to help, even if it helps 3-4 other AL teams. The other 10 AL teams will have tougher schedules.

 

Our record vs non AL East teams, last year was 52-34! How can that not look like a major help to not play them as much? (24 less gms)

 

The other way to look at it: what team played worst vs the AL East in 2022?

 

9-24 TEX

11-23 LAA

26-50 BOS

11-21 DET

13-22 KCR

13-20 OAK

34-42 BAL

15-17 CWS & CLE

16-17 SEA

 

40-36 TBR

17-15 HOU

43-33 TOR

47-29 NYY

 

 

The Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers should be significantly improved this season after going a combined 20-45 against the AL East last year. In 2022 AL East had atypical success against the AL West in the regular season before the AL West went 5-0 against the AL East in postseason games.

[moonslav59]

The Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers should be significantly improved this season after going a combined 20-45 against the AL East last year. In 2022 AL East had atypical success against the AL West in the regular season before the AL West went 5-0 against the AL East in postseason games.

 

Nice spin.

 

The AL East was and still is the best division.

 

Dream on!

 

Remember, when we play the AL East, we don't get to play the 5th place team.

 

Edited February 11, 2023 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

I just cannot see how the new balanced schedule will help the Red Sox get closer to the playoffs, when all AL East teams will also be playing the same exact schedules.

 

Even if three wild cards come out of one division, the fifth-place club still won't make the postseason.

 

I guess the hope is that Boston will finish ahead of Baltimore in fourth... but then will still have to count on a total collapse from either Houston, Seattle or even Texas, who all might be as good as NY, Toronto and Tampa.

 

I agree, and I think there is a little misconception that because the Red Sox won’t be playing so many games in the division they will be better off. Some of the games that would have been played in the Div will now be played against other good teams that they wouldn’t have played before, so it’s just not that cut, and dry that the Red Sox will be better off with a different schedule this year.

[notin]

I just cannot see how the new balanced schedule will help the Red Sox get closer to the playoffs, when all AL East teams will also be playing the same exact schedules.

 

Even if three wild cards come out of one division, the fifth-place club still won't make the postseason.

 

I guess the hope is that Boston will finish ahead of Baltimore in fourth... but then will still have to count on a total collapse from either Houston, Seattle or even Texas, who all might be as good as NY, Toronto and Tampa.

 

Toronto went 16-3 against the Red Sox.

 

Next year, they play the Sox 13 times. At the same winning pct, they would be 11-2 against Boston. Think they go 5-1 in those other 6 games? Especially when you remember they were only 76-67 (.531) in games against teams other than the Red Sox…

[Bellhorn04]

Some writer in The Athletic calculated that the Sox would improve by a few games over last year by the new schedule alone...

 

IF every other team has the same record this year as last year (LOL).

 

The bottom line is, it ain't gonna help much.

[moonslav59]

The Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers should be significantly improved this season after going a combined 20-45 against the AL East last year. In 2022 AL East had atypical success against the AL West in the regular season before the AL West went 5-0 against the AL East in postseason games.

 

ZIPS Projected wins

 

91 NYY

89 TBR

88 TOR

82 BOS

78 BAL

 

83 CLE

83 MIN

80 CWS

74 KCR

72 DET

 

90 HOU

84 SEA

83 LAA

82 TEX

71 OAK

[moonslav59]

Toronto went 16-3 against the Red Sox.

 

Next year, they play the Sox 13 times. At the same winning pct, they would be 11-2 against Boston. Think they go 5-1 in those other 6 games? Especially when you remember they were only 76-67 (.531) in games against teams other than the Red Sox…

 

Conversely, we had a .605 winning % outside the ALE. That would be 6th best in MLB. The Yanks were at .611 overall.

 

I think the whole ALE will benefit, but if the 2022 numbers mean anything towards projections, the Sox probably benefit more than any team in MLB. We were .342 vs ALE. Take away 24 games at .342 (8-16) and add 24 at .605 (15-9), and...[ maybe we add 7 wins just from the schedule change. I put it at 3-4.

 

Is that unrealistic, too?

[moonslav59]

Some writer in The Athletic calculated that the Sox would improve by a few games over last year by the new schedule alone...

 

IF every other team has the same record this year as last year (LOL).

 

The bottom line is, it ain't gonna help much.

 

I don't think it is as simple as taking winning% vs ALE and outside and pro-rate the change, but if you did, it would add 7 wins.

 

I was thinking maybe 3-4 might be more like it- just by the schedule change alone.

 

I also think we are a better team, so I'm thinking 7-8 more wins is very realistic and 9-12 more wins is entirely within reason.

 

That being said, we could also, realistically, end up with less wins than 2022.

[notin]

I don't think it is as simple as taking winning% vs ALE and outside and pro-rate the change, but if you did, it would add 7 wins.

 

I was thinking maybe 3-4 might be more like it- just by the schedule change alone.

 

I also think we are a better team, so I'm thinking 7-8 more wins is very realistic and 9-12 more wins is entirely within reason.

 

That being said, we could also, realistically, end up with less wins than 2022.

 

No.

 

Taking those winning percentages tells you what would have happened last year, when they mattered.

 

The Sox will benefit somewhat from free games vs the AL East simply because they played so poorly in those games and they played a huge chunk of them when the entire rotation was on the IL.

[moonslav59]

No.

 

Taking those winning percentages tells you what would have happened last year, when they mattered.

 

The Sox will benefit somewhat from free games vs the AL East simply because they played so poorly in those games and they played a huge chunk of them when the entire rotation was on the IL.

 

I think if we put up the exact same numbers vs good and bad teams, next year, we win 3-4 more games, just with the schedule.

 

I think the team got better, and we had so many injuries, last year, I'm not counting on more of those, so I think we win some more by getting better and deeper.

 

Our division is so tough, we may not finish above 4th, even if we improve by 8-10 wins, but I really doubt we get worse.

[moonslav59]

Position by Position 2022>2023

 

Catcher: .694 in 617 PAs in 2022

.735 Vaz 294 (.685 OPS 2021-2022)

.588 Plawecki 171 (.652 OPS ’21-’22)

.834 McGuire 100 (.666 OPD ’21-’22)

.524 Wong 52 (.651 OPS ’21-’22)

We may not match the 2022 OPS of .694, but I think we can come close and more than make up for it with better catching defense and pitcher-catcher mojo.

 

1B: .683 in 631 PAs

.606 Dalbec 270 (.732 ’21-’22)

.806 Cordero 160 (.629 ’21-’22)

.787 Casas 91 (.766)

.631 Hosmer 50 (.725)

(.504 Arroyo 26/ .1.031 Vaz 21/.000 Shaw 10/.333 Chang 3)

I can’t imagine Casas and Turner not blowing .683 away.

 

2B: .724 in 665 PAs

.737 Story 396 (.775 ’21-’22)

.886 Arroyo 136 (.749)

.546 Kike 44 (.721)

.322 Sanchez 44

(.581 Downs 23/ 1.125 Chang 10/.000 Arauz 9)

I can see Arroyo, Mondesi and Kike coming close to .724, but the D takes a hit.

 

3B: .856 in 700 PAs

.890 Devers 601 (.885 ’21-’22)

.827 Dalbec 55 (.732)

(.615 Arroyo 32/.000 Downs 12)

Devers and Turner should improve on .856.

 

SS: .815 in 697 PAs

.844 Bogey 621 (.848 ’21-’22)

.861 Arroyo 34 (.749)

(.544 Kike 19/ .231 Chang 13/.250 Dalbec 4/.000 Arauz+Downs 6)

Kike should not come close to .815, but the combined D from him and Mondesi should gain some of that loss back.

 

LF: .694 in 706 PAs

.677 Verdugo 418 (.754 ’21-’22)

.681 Pham 225 (.703)

.760 Cordero 38 (.629)

(1.182 Ref 11/ .733 Almonte 10/1.000 Davis 4)

Yoshida maybe beet .694 by 100-150 points.

 

CF: .671 in 680 PAs

.647 Kike 338 (.721 ’21-’22)

.679 Duran 195 (.622)

.466 JBJ 65 (.530)

.966 Ref 54

(.875 Almonte 16/.804 Davis 8/ .833 Cordero 4)

Duval hit .677 in 315 PAs in 2022 (.738 ’21-’22) I think he beats .671.

 

RF: 661 in 661 PAs

.620 JBJ 222 (.530 ’21-’22)

.839 Dugo 221 (.754)

.677 Ref 79 (.778 ’21-’22)

(.444 Arroyo 50/ .341 Cordero 50/.435 Duran 23/.717 Davis 12)

I think Dugo might beat .661 by over 100 points.

 

DH: .763 in 702 PAs

.790 JD 596 (.829 ’21-’22)

(.810 Arroyo 19/ 1.367 Ref 18/ .432 Cordero 12/ .258 Devers 12)

Turner hit .788 in 532 PAs in 2022 (.811 ’21-’22) This is a tough call. I call it close to even.

 

PH: .738 in 91 PAs

.982 Dalbec 17

.932 Ref 17

 

Batting: Better

Maybe the same at C & DH

Better at 1B, 3B, LF, CF, RF

Worse at SS & 2B

 

Defense: about the same

Maybe the same at 3B & LF

Better at C, 1B & SS

Worse at 2B, RF & CF

[jacksonianmarch]

The AL East is still the best division in MLB, especially the top 3.

 

We will play 24 less games vs the AL East, including 18 less vs NYY, TOR & TBR.

 

We will play almost the same vs AL West and AL Central opps.

 

We will play 26 more games vs the NL.

 

I see this alone as adding 3-4 wins, in theory. It's not wishful thinking. It is data supported.

 

Maybe the schedule helps, but it’ll also help the better teams. Also, the AL east got better this off-season yet the Sox got worse.

[Old Red]

Maybe the schedule helps, but it’ll also help the better teams. Also, the AL east got better this off-season yet the Sox got worse.

 

There is no way to know if the 2023 version of the Boston Red Sox will be better, or worse than the 2022 version. That’s why the games will be played. The 2023 version is certainly a different team, and Story being out definitely does not help things, but after all the injuries, and lack of production last year I don’t see the 2023 team as being worse. If anything the BP should be an improvement over last year, and the rest we’ll just have to see.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe the schedule helps, but it’ll also help the better teams. Also, the AL east got better this off-season yet the Sox got worse.

 

Who can argue with such objective statements supported by such rigorous analysis?

[Bellhorn04]

I find it interesting that the Sox are still sitting on some cash (below the tax line). I believe it means Chaim isn't quite done yet.

[notin]

I find it interesting that the Sox are still sitting on some cash (below the tax line). I believe it means Chaim isn't quite done yet.

 

I don’t think so either, but his reluctance to part with anyone still on the 40 man roster does mean he’s going to wait for openings to happen.

 

Unless he can deal Duran and/or Dalbec…

[moonslav59]

Maybe the schedule helps, but it’ll also help the better teams. Also, the AL east got better this off-season yet the Sox got worse.

 

You keep saying the Sox got worse, and we lost our ace. If Nate was our ace, you lost your closer (Chapman)

 

We got better at 1B, LF, RF and CF and look to be about even at 3B, C and DH. We lost major ground up the middle.

 

I'm not sure what you saw in our rotation, last year, because you said it sucked, all year, and now you act like we are replacing a stud rotation. Wacha, Hill and Nate pitched as much as 2 durable SP'ers, so we are not replacing 3. We are replacing two.

Nate, Wacha & Hill with Kluber and 16 more starts from Whitlock and Bello.

The other slot we are replacing with Sale, Paxton and a few more starts from Whitlock & Bello (beyond the 16 used above) are 4 guys that did not come close to doing well:

5.89 Wink in 14 GS

5.47 Crawford in 12 GS

11.29 Seabold in 4 GS

5.47 Davis in 3 GS

That's 33 GSd easily improved on.

It's not hard to see the 2023 should do at least as well as 2022's, but let's call it even.

The pen is vastly better, even with no Whitlock. Since Houck should not be used as a SP'er, this year, he may make up for losing Whitlock, by himself. We added Jansen, Martin, Rodiguez, Bleier and Mills. We may see Mata, Walter and Murphy give us some pen time. It is vastly better, on paper.

 

Did the O's get better?

 

Did the Rays get better?

 

I'm not even sure the Jays got better.

 

The Sox got better. The only questions are injuries (like the Yanks) and by how much more will they win.

[moonslav59]

I find it interesting that the Sox are still sitting on some cash (below the tax line). I believe it means Chaim isn't quite done yet.

 

Could they really be saving all that wiggle room for deadline trades?

 

I don't see anything to spend it on, now, except Andrus, and he'd not even eat up half of what we have.