2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Bellhorn04]

The one and only reason the #3 spot got downgraded in importance is that the stats show that spot comes up with two outs and nobody on more than any other spot. And that would be mainly in the first inning, obviously.

 

And it's easy to see that most managers don't really pay much attention to that.

[moonslav59]

The one and only reason the #3 spot got downgraded in importance is that the stats show that spot comes up with two outs and nobody on more than any other spot. And that would be mainly in the first inning, obviously.

 

And it's easy to see that most managers don't really pay much attention to that.

 

And, if the #3 hitter gets on with 2 outs, how often does he score?

 

I think when the analytics clearly show a big difference, managers use the data.

 

We see a lot of teams batting their best hitter second.

 

That used to be used for a contact hitter to "move the runner over," and was often a somewhat weaker hitter.

 

Managers are listening to a large degree.

[Bellhorn04]

And, if the #3 hitter gets on with 2 outs, how often does he score?

 

I think when the analytics clearly show a big difference, managers use the data.

 

We see a lot of teams batting their best hitter second.

 

That used to be used for a contact hitter to "move the runner over," and was often a somewhat weaker hitter.

 

Managers are listening to a large degree.

 

Bogey got his largest number of PA's in the 3 spot this year. If Cora believed in the analytics ordering thing, that should not have happened, right?

[moonslav59]

Bogey got his largest number of PA's in the 3 spot this year. If Cora believed in the analytics ordering thing, that should not have happened, right?

 

Agreed.

 

In theory, our line-up would start like this:

 

1. Bogey

2. Devers

3.

4.

5. JD

[notin]

Bogey got his largest number of PA's in the 3 spot this year. If Cora believed in the analytics ordering thing, that should not have happened, right?

 

Why?

 

The only other option IMO might be leadoff.

 

The 3 hitter isn’t really the place for RBI/production guys anymore, but moving him down = fewer PAs, which is also bad.

 

I could see him batting first, but third is really the second best option…

[notin]

Agreed.

 

In theory, our line-up would start like this:

 

1. Bogey

2. Devers

3.

4.

5. JD

 

 

I’m ok with that, as long as 1) there are actual bodies batting third and fourth and 2) no JD…

[moonslav59]

I’m ok with that, as long as 1) there are actual bodies batting third and fourth and 2) no JD…

 

If you went by OPS+ in 2022, and only qualifying players, this might have been the "analytic" line up:

 

1. Bogey 131

2. Devers 141

3. Story 102

4. Dugo 102

5. JD 117

[mvp 78]

If you went by OPS+ in 2022, and only qualifying players, this might have been the "analytic" line up:

 

1. Bogey 131

2. Devers 141

3. Story 102

4. Dugo 102

5. JD 117

 

rLrLr

 

Not bad?

[moonslav59]

rLrLr

 

Not bad?

 

With Bogey's loss of power, I think that line-up looks pretty close to the best, but it does not take into account trends and injuries.

 

Just breaking down to first half vs second half...

 

1st

121 Devers

115 JD

105 Vaz

103 Bogey

94 Dalbec & Kike

93 Story & JBJ

85 Dugo

 

2nd

119 Dugo

119 Arroyo

96 Bogey

96 Pham

78 JD

65 Devers

(158 McGuire but only 108 PAs w Sox)

 

[moonslav59]

This is who and what we saw at our top 5 slots:

 

PAs Batter OPS+

1

204 Kike 79 (.275 OBP)

203 Pham 91 (.305)

165 Duran 89 (.285)

70 Refsnyder 120 (.357)

68 Story 56 (.279)

16 Arroyo 136 (.375)

 

2

455 Devers 112

141 Dugo 89

45 Vaz 78

24 Pham 79

17 Ref 143

13 Kike 113

12 Story 45

 

3

312 Bogey 123

290 JD 123

52 Devers 110

24 Dugo 113

 

4

301 Bogey 127

144 Dugo 121

122 JD 88

105 Devers 81

 

5

265 Dugo 110

165 JD 112

78 Story 94

39 Vaz 124

37 Arroyo 137

34 Kike 30

21 Dalbec 181

 

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Why?

 

The only other option IMO might be leadoff.

 

The 3 hitter isn’t really the place for RBI/production guys anymore, but moving him down = fewer PAs, which is also bad.

 

I could see him batting first, but third is really the second best option…

 

Analytics guys say your fifth best hitter should bat third.

 

Where's Kimmi?

[moonslav59]

Analytics guys say your fifth best hitter should bat third.

 

Where's Kimmi?

 

That's what I said: "2, 1, 5, 4, 3"

[Bellhorn04]

That's what I said: "2, 1, 5, 4, 3"

 

Yes, that's what the analytics guys say.

[mvp 78]

That's what I said: "2, 1, 5, 4, 3"

 

No, I'm pretty sure that's a kimmi thing.

[notin]

No, I'm pretty sure that's a kimmi thing.

 

It’s also the combination to my luggage!!

[oldtimer]

The "best hitter" need not be a power hitter, but I agree, I'd avoid power up first, even if I had a strong bottom of the order.

 

I would put my very best overall hitter second. I agree with that idea. So, Devers bats second. Now, out of our next two best hitters, I'd put the better OBP up 1st and the other guy up 4th (not 5th as the analytics suggests.)

 

Then does the 4th best hitter bat 3rd or 5th? I've always felt the 3 slot was important, but the analytics strong favors 5 over 3, so I'd go against my gut. My 5th best hitter bats 3rd.

I want my leadoff guy to get on base and then be a treat to run. Good plate discipline good bat to ball skills. I also want enough speed to put pressure on the pitcher by being a threat to run. I'm okay with having my best hitter up second but I also want a guy behind him that is a treat so they have to come in to the 2 hitter. A Dalbec type hitter behind your best means he never sees a hittable pitch.

[oldtimer]

Analytics guys say your fifth best hitter should bat third.

 

Where's Kimmi?

 

Won't the analytics change next year with the banning of the shift?

[mvp 78]

It’s also the combination to my luggage!!

 

The #9 hitter has to have ludicrous speed.

[mvp 78]

Won't the analytics change next year with the banning of the shift?

 

No. It could just change who use assume is your best 3rd or 4th hitter.

[moonslav59]

No, I'm pretty sure that's a kimmi thing.

 

Yes. I meant I said it earlier, today in a post, and said that is what the analytics say, which is what Kimmi relayed to us, long ago.

[notin]

The #9 hitter has to have ludicrous speed.

 

 

Well done…

[mvp 78]

Yes. I meant I said it earlier, today in a post, and said that is what the analytics say, which is what Kimmi relayed to us, long ago.

 

Ah, so you must be the muscle behind Kimmi's crew, eh?

[moonslav59]

Ah, so you must be the muscle behind Kimmi's crew, eh?

 

She can more than take care of herself.

[mvp 78]

Jake Reed is changing is arm slot... again. Could be interesting? IDK. Bazardo was what he was. Sometimes these arm slot guys can give a few good years out of nowhere.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-acquisition-jake-reed-has-a-less-funky-arm-slot-in-mind/

 

“I’d pretty much always been low three-quarters. I was pitching pretty well in the minors, but in 2017 the Twins changed over their front office. Baseball was getting a lot more progressive, which sort of changed how guys are valued. I threw pretty hard — I was a mid-to-upper-90s kind of guy — but my stuff didn’t necessarily perform super well analytically. So about halfway through the 2019 season we had a long conversation and came to the idea of me dropping down sidearm and trying to create more movement on my sinker, and improve my slider. That was the first time I really made that transition from how I’d thrown my whole life.

 

“I dropped about a foot, probably more. At my lowest, I was probably in the high threes as far as release height, whereas right now I’m closer to five. So I dropped down and things were going like we wanted them to — the movement improved on both of my pitches — but a couple months into it, I started wrestling with my command. I was kind of all over the place. My strikeouts were up, and stuff-wise it was a good year, but numbers-wise it wasn’t a good year. It was a strange year.”

 

“I struggled early on this year. Now I’m sort of going back in the direction of how I used to throw, or at least I’m trying to; it’s something I can’t really do during the season, although my arm angle has already drifted up. That transition happened probably in mid-June. And then the other thing is — maybe you’ve noticed — my arm out of my glove goes really high. It’s swinging more like a normal arm swing.

 

“Last offseason, my shoulder was kind of bothering me and without me even knowing it, I started throwing a certain way to where it didn’t hurt so much. By the time I started seeing video of myself, I was like, ‘I don’t remember doing that on purpose.’ People ask, ‘How long have you been throwing like this?’ I tell them, ‘I didn’t try to do this, it’s just kind of where my arm has drifted.’ The body is interesting in the way that it works.”

 

“I think if you were to look at my release, it would probably be similar to some other low-slot sidearm righties. What makes it so different is the way in which I get there. It’s not like anything that anybody else is doing. And to be honest, it just doesn’t feel natural. That’s part of what is making me want to go back to how I used to throw. Sometimes it almost feels like what I’m doing is throwing with my other hand. It’s interesting. It’s a weird dynamic.”

[mvp 78]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/christian-vazquez-eyeing-more-playing-time.html

 

While almost any team could do with a well-rounded catcher like Vazquez, a return to the Red Sox would be something he’d welcome.

 

“I hope so. I’d love it. It was my [house] for a long time,” Vázquez said. “We’ll see how it goes.”

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Having Donaldson batting 5th makes Boone look like the crap manager he actually is. Note to Astros: stop throwing hanging pitches to Bader; he's a master at hitting them. Edited October 20, 2022 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Congrats to 'Cona for taking the Guardians to five games against the Yankems with the weakest offense in the PO's.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

If the SOX can re-sign Bogey, they will have an above average offense. If the SOX can obtain a good defensive RF, they will have a very good defense. With that in mind all available money and prospects should be used to acquire two good starters and 3 good BP arms. This all seems very doable.

[moonslav59]

If the SOX can re-sign Bogey, they will have an above average offense. If the SOX can obtain a good defensive RF, they will have a very good defense. With that in mind all available money and prospects should be used to acquire two good starters and 3 good BP arms. This all seems very doable.

 

6 or 7 quality additions or bring backs should be all that is needed, as long as we don't botch more than 1 of them.

 

If we don't bring Bogey back, we'll need to upgrade at 1 or more positions by more and more, but that, too, is doable.

 

I'm not sure management is prepared to trade a top prospect or two to try and fill one major need area, but I think we may have to do so, unless we spend more than I'm thinking they want to do.

 

I do think we can field a competitive team without a major prospect trade and staying slightly under the tax line, but it's a fine needle to thread.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Walking dumb azz Donaldson should get any pitcher removed from the game. Btw, I'm not a Donaldson fan; he's one of the biggest jerks in MLB.