9/29 Red Sox and O's for the last time in '22

[moonslav59]

Use the stats to support what your eyes see. If the stats shows something else, you need to keep watching and maybe re-evaluate. Just using stats is not the right way to do it either.

 

Agreed, and I have done just that many times.

 

When it comes to comparing Bogey's defense, for example, to other SSs in the league, I only watch about half the SSs in MLB (AL almost exclusively) and some for just 6 games a year. It's very hard to rely on the eye test first, but I do often notice, I see more spectacular plays by other SSs than our own. I also notice a few more errors by others, but not by more than plays made I never see Bogey make. My conclusion via the eye test is that Bogey is average at best on D. Yes, he improved from years before.

 

I cannot know for sure, if he is better or worse than NL SSs, so by eye test only, it's hard to say he is below average or average at best.

 

The dats shows he has been, almost every year, except maybe 2022.

[mvp 78]

Back to the original point: there was a guy on the Sox once who used to take the first pitch all the time and it was maddening.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/mookie-betts-605141?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

In this case, the stats back up the idea that in 2018, Mookie Betts swung at less than 10% of the 1st pitch of an at bat. It was frustrating sometimes, but he was also having the greatest year of his career. This year, Mookie has swung at 30%.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Back to the original point: there was a guy on the Sox once who used to take the first pitch all the time and it was maddening.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/mookie-betts-605141?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

In this case, the stats back up the idea that in 2018, Mookie Betts swung at less than 10% of the 1st pitch of an at bat. It was frustrating sometimes, but he was also having the greatest year of his career. This year, Mookie has swung at 30%.

 

Boggs almost always took the first pitch, so everyone threw it right down the middle. Drove me crazy. And from the stats I could find, he had a higher batting average swinging at the first pitch than taking it (maybe it was a selective set-up on his part, for big moments).

 

Doesn't matter, he hit over .300 for his career in either approach.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Agreed, and I have done just that many times.

 

When it comes to comparing Bogey's defense, for example, to other SSs in the league, I only watch about half the SSs in MLB (AL almost exclusively) and some for just 6 games a year. It's very hard to rely on the eye test first, but I do often notice, I see more spectacular plays by other SSs than our own. I also notice a few more errors by others, but not by more than plays made I never see Bogey make. My conclusion via the eye test is that Bogey is average at best on D. Yes, he improved from years before.

 

I cannot know for sure, if he is better or worse than NL SSs, so by eye test only, it's hard to say he is below average or average at best.

 

The dats shows he has been, almost every year, except maybe 2022.

 

This whole post reminded me of Ripken. I can't remember him ever dazzling, but he was always positioned where the ball was going because he knew every pitch that was coming and the batter's tendencies to handle them.

 

One year he made three errors... playing every inning of every game..

[jad]

Back to the original point: there was a guy on the Sox once who used to take the first pitch all the time and it was maddening.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/mookie-betts-605141?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

In this case, the stats back up the idea that in 2018, Mookie Betts swung at less than 10% of the 1st pitch of an at bat. It was frustrating sometimes, but he was also having the greatest year of his career. This year, Mookie has swung at 30%.

 

That's interesting. As are the stats on Rafy. So I suppose it's just my less than complete attention that highlights those cases of taking a first pitch right there, then going down on Pitches way out of the zone. Maybe that would be an area for him to improve--if, that is, he didn't hit bad pitches as well as he does (not Vlad G. Sr. territory, though).

[moonslav59]

Boggs almost always took the first pitch, so everyone threw it right down the middle. Drove me crazy. And from the stats I could find, he had a higher batting average swinging at the first pitch than taking it (maybe it was a selective set-up on his part, for big moments).

 

Doesn't matter, he hit over .300 for his career in either approach.

 

Maybe he could have been even better, but the fact is, most of the time opposing pitchers did not throw it right down the middle. The count went 1-0 at about a 5:4 ratio.

 

.858 career OPS

.846 first pitch

.712 after 0-1 (495 PAs)

.922 after 1-0 (3414 PAs)

 

Overall after the first pitch:

After 1-0 .922 (3414 PAs)

After 0-1 .705 (2895 PAs)

Edited September 30, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Devers is another case.

 

.852 Career OPS

 

.937 when he puts the ball in play on the first pitch. (362 PAs)

 

.954 when going 0-1 (WOW!) 284 PAs

1.049 when going 1-0 1095 PAs

 

.736 overall, after 0-1 (1484 PAs)

.989, overall, after 1-0 (1095)

 

He does worse after the first pitch and behind.

.954 0-1

.547 0-2

.561 1-2

[moonslav59]

This whole post reminded me of Ripken. I can't remember him ever dazzling, but he was always positioned where the ball was going because he knew every pitch that was coming and the batter's tendencies to handle them.

 

One year he made three errors... playing every inning of every game..

 

Even with superior positioning, he still made less plays than most SSs due to his horrific range.

 

I'm not sure, if he got more favorable calls on hits v error rulings due to his rep, but that is an astounding mark of just 3 errors!

[mvp 78]

That's interesting. As are the stats on Rafy. So I suppose it's just my less than complete attention that highlights those cases of taking a first pitch right there, then going down on Pitches way out of the zone. Maybe that would be an area for him to improve--if, that is, he didn't hit bad pitches as well as he does (not Vlad G. Sr. territory, though).

 

I wonder if they go up there looking for a specific pitch on the first pitch. If they see that pitch, they'll swing away. If they don't see it, they take it. Maybe sometimes they just want to take a few pitches to see how the ball is coming out of the pitcher's hand? Just because the ball ends up down the middle of the plate doesn't necessarily mean that the hitter knew that specific pitch was coming or was ready for it. It's very frustrating though. I remember Mookie doing it all the time and NESN talking about him taking so many first pitches. Well, it worked out pretty good for him in 2018 I guess.

[mvp 78]

Even with superior positioning, he still made less plays than most SSs due to his horrific range.

 

I'm not sure, if he got more favorable calls on hits v error rulings due to his rep, but that is an astounding mark of just 3 errors!

 

And just a few years prior, he made over 20. Maybe rep made a big difference? IDK.

[Old Red]

That's not my goal or even desire.

 

I exposed an example where someone's "eye test" was clearly wrong. I'm sorry, if facts and data can prove what is right or wrong, in some cases. This was a clear example how eyes can be very deceiving- and not to just one person, but to all of us, myself included.

That may be an example, but everyone sees, and interprets things differently. Another set of eyes might have told you something else. All I know is that for me the eye test is good enough, and every one else can do what, and how they want to do it. I don’t need a lot of technical stuff to know what’s going on.

[moonslav59]

That may be an example, but everyone sees, and interprets things differently. Another set of eyes might have told you something else. All I know is that for me the eye test is good enough, and every one else can do what, and how they want to do it. I don’t need a lot of technical stuff to know what’s going on.

 

There is no "interpretation" on swinging for the first pitch or not. There are no alternative facts.

 

We've all been wrong in some of our "eye test" interpretations- some more than others.

 

Some "eye test" interpretations may have valid differences of opinion or facts that seem to back opposing positions. This one was not one of those.

[Old Red]

There is no "interpretation" on swinging for the first pitch or not. There are no alternative facts.

 

We've all been wrong in some of our "eye test" interpretations- some more than others.

 

Some "eye test" interpretations may have valid differences of opinion or facts that seem to back opposing positions. This one was not one of those.

 

I am not arguing that example at all, and I said that may be an example of being wrong, and I’m just talking about in general that the eye test is good enough for me that you have commented on many times.

[moonslav59]

I am not arguing that example at all, and I said that may be an example of being wrong, and I’m just talking about in general that the eye test is good enough for me that you have commented on many times.

 

I agree that most people's eye tests match the data and facts.

 

When people start saying things like So-and-so is an above average defender, I wonder how an eye test, alone, can lead anyone to a solid opinion- one where they feel very confident they are right.

 

Without watching other players almost every game, how can anyone ever know, without using some sort of data?

 

Maybe some watch a 5 games a day, but I don't know anyone who does, and that might only be 1/3 of that day's games.

 

There are certain opinions that can be fact-checked, pretty easily, but sometimes, there can be different data used, or different sample sizes used, and that opens the door to legitimate differing opinions.

 

Some statements like JD hits in more Dps than anyone else on the Sox can be proven or disproven by facts. Statements like Bogey is an above average fielder is open to debate and differing data.

[Old Red]

I agree that most people's eye tests match the data and facts.

 

When people start saying things like So-and-so is an above average defender, I wonder how an eye test, alone, can lead anyone to a solid opinion- one where they feel very confident they are right.

 

Without watching other players almost every game, how can anyone ever know, without using some sort of data?

 

Maybe some watch a 5 games a day, but I don't know anyone who does, and that might only be 1/3 of that day's games.

 

There are certain opinions that can be fact-checked, pretty easily, but sometimes, there can be different data used, or different sample sizes used, and that opens the door to legitimate differing opinions.

 

Some statements like JD hits in more Dps than anyone else on the Sox can be proven or disproven by facts. Statements like Bogey is an above average fielder is open to debate and differing data.

I have never said an eye test alone can lead to a solid opinion. I have just said the eye test is good enough for me. I had heard that Duran was not a good OF, but last year I didn’t see that in the games I watched, but I sure saw it this year, so I realize that stats too can tell you more of a story. I don’t question that.

[moonslav59]

I have never said an eye test alone can lead to a solid opinion. I have just said the eye test is good enough for me. I had heard that Duran was not a good OF, but last year I didn’t see that in the games I watched, but I sure saw it this year, so I realize that stats too can tell you more of a story. I don’t question that.

 

I never said you said that. I just added more details to my opinion on the matter.

[Old Red]

I never said you said that. I just added more details to my opinion on the matter.

 

Well received.