2023 Free Agents

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, go ahead and knock off $35M off $90. THat still leaves us with $55M, which is more than we had to spend in 2020, 2021 and 2022, including the Story signing, and now we'd have one less slot to fill. $55M could be spent like this...

 

$22M Nimmo

$15M Nate

$10M RP

$8M RP

 

We could spend less on RF and more on pitching or make a trade to fill one slot and spend more at the other 4-5 slots.

 

It can be done. There is more to be optimistic about this winter than the last 3, assuming we spend up to the line. If we pull the trigger on a major trade, we can work wonders- or take a huge swing and miss.

 

This is assuming:

 

a) They like our plan of replacing JDM with Hozzy/Bobby D.

They like McGuire and Wong at catcher.

[mvp 78]

What I don't understand is, if people really think the Sox are too cheap to sign Bogey or any of the other shorts stops where do they think the money is going to go? Do they seriously believe the Sox are going to stay significantly under the cap?

 

This is delusional because all history and precedent as well as language coming out of the front office indicate otherwise. You can only have so many reclamation projects, eventually, they would have to start removing star prospects from the 40-man. it ain't happening, it's not a logical argument. The money is going somewhere folks.

 

You can throw around words such as dumpster diving, or Tampa north or whatever you fancy when you get hot and bothered but your argument falls flat and short of reality. The money is going somewhere. If not Bogey, its Correa/Swanson/Turner. If it's nto a SS they're going big on pitching (DeGrom and Verlander) and if it's none of thee above they're going after Judge.

 

What other argument is there? you think they're going to pay Franchy 1 year 70 million just to piss you off?

 

The money is going to buying the Washington Commanders.

[mvp 78]

I'm not so sure those estimates are correct. Bogey's offense has been way more consistent than Correa's, since his relatively slower start, and he has missed less time with injuries than CC. Many GMs value that, too.

 

OPS+

Correa (will be 28 all season 2023)

135 in 2015 (age 20) 432 PAs

124 in 2016 (21) 577

155 in 2017 (22) 422

99 in 2018 (23) 468

137 in 2019 (24) 321

93 in 2020 (25) 221

131 in 2021 (26) 640

140 in 2022 (27) 590

 

2021 and 2022 were the first 2 years in a row Correa had more than 481 PAs or an OPS+ above 130. Is he consistent enough and healthy enough to get paid way more than Bogey- just because of better D?

 

Bogey (will be 30 all season in 2023. He began at age 20- same as Correa, but became FT at age 21)

 

87 in 2021 at age 20 (50 PAs)

84 in '22 (21) 594

107 in '15 (22) 654 (The year CC broke into the bigs)

111 in '16 (23) 719

95 in '17 (24) 635

135 in '18 (25) 580

139 in '19 (26) 698

128 in '20 (27) 225

129 in '21 (28) 603

131 in '22 (29) 631

 

Bogey has 9 seasons in a row over 590 PAs, if you pro-rate 2020. He has had 5 straight seasons at a 128 OPS+ or more.

 

Correa has had 3 of 7 seasons at 590 PAs or more and only 2 over 630 PAs. He's been over a 128 OPS+ in 3 of the last 5 seasons.

 

I do think Correa gets more money and more years (due to his age), but it might not be by as much as you suggested.

 

I'd take Correa at $260M/8 over Bogey at $160M/6. It might be more like $300M/10 CC vs $225M/7 XB. I'd still go CC, but I have no idea which one the Sox would take. (My guess is neither, but if they had to, I'd guess CC.)

 

One wild card is the fact that CC's D declined, this year, while Bogey's improved, and there is no shift, next year.

 

 

 

And Bogey has only done that once in 2018-2019?

 

Bogey's defense impoved BUT ONLY WHEN SHIFTED. WHOOPS.

[mvp 78]

Don't discount (no pun) how spending can be affected by taking on someone else's bad contract to sweeten a trade return. Also, might it be prudent to keep some budget in reserve for midseason in case they have a shot at a wild card and actually want to upgrade and add salary?

 

At that point, it's usually for an expiring contract. Just go over and reset after the season.

[mvp 78]

This is assuming:

 

a) They like our plan of replacing JDM with Hozzy/Bobby D.

They like McGuire and Wong at catcher.

 

I'm still not sold on our plan.

[Hugh2]

And Bogey has only done that once in 2018-2019?

 

Bogey's defense impoved BUT ONLY WHEN SHIFTED. WHOOPS.

 

This, Bogey had a weird year. power down, average up due to extreme luck on ground balls, and his defense was only plus in the shift that is going away. I don’t think any is saying Correa isn’t the better player by far. Still, Bogey is homegrown and if the money is right should be the #1 choice. But if the moneys close, let’s say 45 million or less, the Sox should seriously consider Correa.

[Hugh2]

The money is going to buying the Washington Commanders.

 

Ok, you always have struck me as one of the more intelligent posters in here. I feel like this is in reference to some asinine point a poster made on a day that I was not in here and there’s some inside joke I’m not part of….fill me in bro.

[Hugh2]

I think the Red Sox have to stay close to $10 million under to account for trades and call ups if they seriously want to reset. Still plenty of money to work with

[moonslav59]

And Bogey has only done that once in 2018-2019?

 

Okay, change it to 125 or 128 OPS+ or more: Correa has done it twice in a row once and 5 times in 8 years. Bogey has done i the last 5 years straight.

[moonslav59]

Bogey's defense improved BUT ONLY WHEN SHIFTED. WHOOPS.

 

That's the scary part, but the shift was around longer than just 2022. It's weird he improved only in that area.

 

Did Correa's drop in just that area?

[moonslav59]

This is assuming:

 

a) They like our plan of replacing JDM with Hozzy/Bobby D.

They like McGuire and Wong at catcher.

 

They may not "like it," and they spoke of adding a catcher, so I guess one could expand the slots needed to upgrade to 7, but that's still less than previous years and way more money to spend.

[Hugh2]

That's the scary part, but the shift was around longer than just 2022. It's weird he improved only in that area.

 

Did Correa's drop in just that area?

 

What is a drop? Stats can vary year to year, Correa is still a plus defender. I don’t see any indication of a steady decline in his defense. He’s also consistently had more power, where’s Bogeys power seem to have disappeared this year. Power is a good indicator of aging well, where’s something like speed usually (but not always) is not. For that reason I’m. It sure I like Turner. If you’re trying to make the argument that Bogey is almost as good as Correa that’s fair, I think everyone agrees with you, but Correa is better.

 

Depending on the dollar amounts, that doesn’t mean he will be a better signing in FA

[moonslav59]

This, Bogey had a weird year. power down, average up due to extreme luck on ground balls, and his defense was only plus in the shift that is going away. I don’t think any is saying Correa isn’t the better player by far. Still, Bogey is homegrown and if the money is right should be the #1 choice. But if the moneys close, let’s say 45 million or less, the Sox should seriously consider Correa.

 

Are you talking total money? I'm assuming Correa gets 1-3 more years than Bogey, so it's hard to quantify what $45M means.

 

Correa at $295M/10 vs Bogey at $250M/8? I'd take Correa. His AAV is lower and they both end their contracts at the same age.

[Bellhorn04]

They may not "like it," and they spoke of adding a catcher, so I guess one could expand the slots needed to upgrade to 7, but that's still less than previous years and way more money to spend.

 

It sounds good.

[mvp 78]

This, Bogey had a weird year. power down, average up due to extreme luck on ground balls, and his defense was only plus in the shift that is going away. I don’t think any is saying Correa isn’t the better player by far. Still, Bogey is homegrown and if the money is right should be the #1 choice. But if the moneys close, let’s say 45 million or less, the Sox should seriously consider Correa.

 

I agree. My preference is to Bogey as it should help with re-signing Raffy and I believe the Sox could move Xander off position once a younger guy is ready for SS.

[moonslav59]

What is a drop? Stats can vary year to year, Correa is still a plus defender. I don’t see any indication of a steady decline in his defense. He’s also consistently had more power, where’s Bogeys power seem to have disappeared this year. Power is a good indicator of aging well, where’s something like speed usually (but not always) is not. For that reason I’m. It sure I like Turner. If you’re trying to make the argument that Bogey is almost as good as Correa that’s fair, I think everyone agrees with you, but Correa is better.

 

Depending on the dollar amounts, that doesn’t mean he will be a better signing in FA

 

I certainly think Correa is a better all around SS, even if you factor in a little more lost time for injuries. How much better is the question, and I agree, the differential between the two contracts will be what determines which one we like better. To me, Correa being 2 years younger is huge, so I'm looking at AAV and years- not total money given.

 

I'd give Correa $248M/8 ($31M x 8) over giving Bogey $168M/6 ($28M x 6), even though the total dollars are $80M more to Correa. The AAV is close enough to reflect Correa is better and both contracts end at the same ages, but we get 2 more years of prime from Correa. That, to me, is the kicker.

[mvp 78]

Ok, you always have struck me as one of the more intelligent posters in here. I feel like this is in reference to some asinine point a poster made on a day that I was not in here and there’s some inside joke I’m not part of….fill me in bro.

 

Every time I make an intelligent post, I need to follow it up with one that uses negative brain cells that only amuses myself.

[moonslav59]

It sounds good.

 

I'm really optimistic about seeing a major improvement in 2023.

 

$90M on 7-9 slots is still better than $40M on 12 slots, but I doubt we add more than 6 or 7 new players to the roster we have now.

[moonslav59]

Every time I make an intelligent post, I need to follow it up ...

 

Good thing that happens so rarely, or else you'd b e here all day.

 

[mvp 78]

Okay, change it to 125 or 128 OPS+ or more: Correa has done it twice in a row once and 5 times in 8 years. Bogey has done i the last 5 years straight.

 

Correa has done it 5 times in 8 years and is 2 years younger. (You're dinging 20 year old Correa with a 135 OPS+ who played half the season in AA and AAA?)

 

Bogey has done it 5 times in 8 years and is 2 years older.

 

If you change the metrics to any plate appearances with OPS+ 124 or better:

 

Correa is 6 out of last 8 years

Bogey is 5 out of last 8 years

[mvp 78]

Good thing that happens so rarely, or else you'd b e here all day.

 

 

I used to post a lot more from home, but then your kind showed up.

[moonslav59]

Correa has done it 5 times in 8 years and is 2 years younger. (You're dinging 20 year old Correa with a 135 OPS+ who played half the season in AA and AAA?)

 

Bogey has done it 5 times in 8 years and is 2 years older.

 

If you change the metrics to any plate appearances with OPS+ 124 or better:

 

Correa is 6 out of last 8 years

Bogey is 5 out of last 8 years

 

All good points, but I think the 5 straight in the last 5 years makes him more predictable on offense, until age kicks in, which will be sooner with Bogey.

 

I'd much prefer Correa, but I'm pointing out his more inconsistent offense and injury history as 2 things that worry me about selecting him to be our biggest "large and long contract" since Price... maybe ever.

[moonslav59]

I used to post a lot more from home, but then your kind showed up.

 

It must have sucked to finally get some real competition.

[notin]

I agree. My preference is to Bogey as it should help with re-signing Raffy and I believe the Sox could move Xander off position once a younger guy is ready for SS.

 

I’m not sure if the Sox are considering Correa, but I don’t think they’re considering Bogaerts all that seriously…

[Hugh2]

Could a Devers extension make it easier to let Bogey walk?

 

I just can’t see the Sox rolling into next year without one of the big four

[mvp 78]

All good points, but I think the 5 straight in the last 5 years makes him more predictable on offense, until age kicks in, which will be sooner with Bogey.

 

I'd much prefer Correa, but I'm pointing out his more inconsistent offense and injury history as 2 things that worry me about selecting him to be our biggest "large and long contract" since Price... maybe ever.

 

It would be the Sox' biggest contract of all time. It's a risk for sure. Cora likes him. He's an MVP candidate when at the top of his game.

 

Bogey's power was way down and his fielding as you've reminded us so very often is "below average" at best. The only benefit is that he's best pals with Raffy and is a great clubhouse fit.

[mvp 78]

It must have sucked to finally get some real competition.

 

Is there a scoring system here?

[mvp 78]

I’m not sure if the Sox are considering Correa, but I don’t think they’re considering Bogaerts all that seriously…

 

If not, what do you think the plan is at SS?

 

No FA? Kiké? Story?

 

Cheap FA? Andrus/Iglesias?

[mvp 78]

Could a Devers extension make it easier to let Bogey walk?

 

I just can’t see the Sox rolling into next year without one of the big four

 

Just wait until XXXXX is gone.

[moonslav59]

Is there a scoring system here?

 

Not unless you have one.