2023 Free Agents

[Hugh2]

The Sox rarely have a pick as high as the Mayer one, and many industry people felt he was the best of a pretty strong draft class. It would seem rash to then trade him away before he even reached AA.

 

I doubt we trade a possible once-in-a-lifetime prospects like Mayer, but it may come down to how much we like Romero and our choice to sign or not sign a SS, longterm, this winter.

 

Agreed, If Mayer still looks as promising as Mayer in 2022 into 2023 he carries significantly more trade value. Which, when you look at the other high ceiling guy in our system (Bleis) who is even lower than Mayer then you make the argument that right now is NOT the time to start trading prospects. We'd be selling way too low.

 

It would likely take Bleis/Mayer to get now what one them may net you in 1-2 years.

[mvp 78]

I don't think a single fan or poster would be okay with adding just Kluber to our sketchy rotation, even if we beefed up the pen and spent to fill the SS and RF holes adequately.

 

No doubt, we cannot count on Sale and Paxton. Maybe counting on the two combined to start 33 games would be more dream than reality. Maybe planning on 33 from the two is not a terrible idea, but maybe they both start 16 in the same time period and leave two holes for the other half of the season. We need to plan accordingly, and if we want to strongly compete in 2023, not with other 5 slot pitchers like Heaney or Lugo.

 

Even if 2024 is deemed "the year" we start to become meaningful top contenders, we can still start building up a solid rotation in 2023. The fans would appreciate it, and maybe show their appreciation by buying more tickets and NESN subscriptions. I don't see us signing a QO SP'er, so I think a trade, at some point, will need to be made. I see two likely choices:

 

1. Put our hopes on Mayer, go cheap and short at SS, and beef up the rotation and OF. Trade Rafaela and others not named Mayer, Bleis and Bello for a SP'er.

 

2. Put our hopes in Rafaela, Abreu of some prospect moving to the OF and go large and long at SS (Correa & Bogey both have no QO.) Trade Mayer for a SP.

 

FA SP options for NEXT offseason

 

Starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco, Alex Cobb (club option), Yu Darvish, Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Sonny Gray, Clayton Kershaw, Lance Lynn (club option), Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Germán Márquez, Miles Mikolas, Frankie Montas, Jordan Montgomery, Charlie Morton (club option), Aaron Nola, Jake Odorizzi, Shohei Ohtani, Eduardo Rodriguez (opt-out), Hyun Jin Ryu, Max Scherzer (opt-out), Luis Severino, Blake Snell, Marcus Stroman (opt-out), Julio Urías, Alex Wood

[mvp 78]

Agreed, If Mayer still looks as promising as Mayer in 2022 into 2023 he carries significantly more trade value. Which, when you look at the other high ceiling guy in our system (Bleis) who is even lower than Mayer then you make the argument that right now is NOT the time to start trading prospects. We'd be selling way too low.

 

It would likely take Bleis/Mayer to get now what one them may net you in 1-2 years.

 

If Mayer continues his value in 2023, he becomes close to untouchable IMO.

[moonslav59]

It's always tough looking at these lists in hindsight, remember most of the guys in this top 20 will either bust or not reach their ceilings. But we've had some stacked systems in the past with plenty of close MLB talent.

 

https://soxprospects.com/history.htm

 

I'm not saying this is the best class I've ever seen. I don't believe it is. The Betts, Bogey, Devers, Vaz & JBJ one jumps to mind. A few from the Theo years, too.

 

My point was more about the quantity with some decent quality attached. I named over 20 players that could have a positive contribution in 2023. Yes, more likely 8-12 might, and some could suck, so badly, they wipe out the plusses by the others. I get that.\

 

Maybe it's just the complete disaster our farm has been between the Devers and Bello promotions that has me wide-eyed.

 

I like the class coming up, right now. I think we have 3-4 solid prospects and enough sleeper prospects to put the odds of 2-3 of the secondary tier doing something special at more than 50-50. I'm thinking 7-8 will leave us feeling real good ab out by season's end.

 

Since we have about 6-8 high need areas, and should fill some by additions, I'm optimistic about 2023, even if we don't go "all in." (Not optimistic on being a top 4-5 contender, but odds on faves to make the playoffs with just some decent additions.)

[moonslav59]

Agreed, If Mayer still looks as promising as Mayer in 2022 into 2023 he carries significantly more trade value. Which, when you look at the other high ceiling guy in our system (Bleis) who is even lower than Mayer then you make the argument that right now is NOT the time to start trading prospects. We'd be selling way too low.

 

It would likely take Bleis/Mayer to get now what one them may net you in 1-2 years.

 

I totally agree, but it is a dice roll. In no way am I comparing Duran and Downs to Mayer and Bleis, but we could/should have traded them before that "one more year."

[Hugh2]

If Mayer continues his value in 2023, he becomes close to untouchable IMO.

 

I think he’s close untouchable now, but also no one is ever truly untouchable. This is why I used Alcantara as an example as unlikely as he is.

[moonslav59]

FA SP options for NEXT offseason

 

Starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco, Alex Cobb (club option), Yu Darvish, Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Sonny Gray, Clayton Kershaw, Lance Lynn (club option), Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Germán Márquez, Miles Mikolas, Frankie Montas, Jordan Montgomery, Charlie Morton (club option), Aaron Nola, Jake Odorizzi, Shohei Ohtani, Eduardo Rodriguez (opt-out), Hyun Jin Ryu, Max Scherzer (opt-out), Luis Severino, Blake Snell, Marcus Stroman (opt-out), Julio Urías, Alex Wood

 

I've been saying for a long time, our best chance at greatly improving our rotation is by trade. I still feel that way.

 

It's not just about our history with Pedro, Schill, Beckett and Sale: it's about not spending so much on the next Price or Lackey.

[moonslav59]

I think he’s close untouchable now, but also no one is ever truly untouchable. This is why I used Alcantara as an example as unlikely as he is.

 

I don't think Alcantara is a good name to bring up. We'd trade Mayer and Rafaela for him in a heartbeat and the Marlins would be criticized for accepting just those two.

[mvp 78]

I totally agree, but it is a dice roll. In no way am I comparing Duran and Downs to Mayer and Bleis, but we could/should have traded them before that "one more year."

 

I'm not sure how much value Downs had once his performance kind of tanked in 2021.

[Hugh2]

I don't think Alcantara is a good name to bring up. We'd trade Mayer and Rafaela for him in a heartbeat and the Marlins would be criticized for accepting just those two.

 

I think he’s a great name to bring up if the point is to prove to guy is untouchable for the right price. Now If we wanted to entertain a legit deal for Alcantara, which I’m not, we probably have to offer Bello/Mayer/Bleis to get them to the table. If they were serious about moving him that might even get it done or something close to it. There does not seem to be any indication that Miami wants to move him however.

[Hugh2]

I'm not sure how much value Downs had once his performance kind of tanked in 2021.

 

I also think Mayer and Bleis are in a different league than Downs/Duran. Both figuratively and literally

[Hugh2]

I'm not saying this is the best class I've ever seen. I don't believe it is. The Betts, Bogey, Devers, Vaz & JBJ one jumps to mind. A few from the Theo years, too.

 

My point was more about the quantity with some decent quality attached. I named over 20 players that could have a positive contribution in 2023. Yes, more likely 8-12 might, and some could suck, so badly, they wipe out the plusses by the others. I get that.\

 

Maybe it's just the complete disaster our farm has been between the Devers and Bello promotions that has me wide-eyed.

 

I like the class coming up, right now. I think we have 3-4 solid prospects and enough sleeper prospects to put the odds of 2-3 of the secondary tier doing something special at more than 50-50. I'm thinking 7-8 will leave us feeling real good ab out by season's end.

 

Since we have about 6-8 high need areas, and should fill some by additions, I'm optimistic about 2023, even if we don't go "all in." (Not optimistic on being a top 4-5 contender, but odds on faves to make the playoffs with just some decent additions.)

 

This is true, there’s a lot of talent close to MLB ready

 

For example. Mata is hardly the best pitching prospect we’ve had come through the system, and we’ve seen the likes of Henry Owens and Allen Webster get hyped up and fail. But he could be a starter or reliever for this team by the end of 2023.

[moonslav59]

I think he’s a great name to bring up if the point is to prove to guy is untouchable for the right price. Now If we wanted to entertain a legit deal for Alcantara, which I’m not, we probably have to offer Bello/Mayer/Bleis to get them to the table. If they were serious about moving him that might even get it done or something close to it. There does not seem to be any indication that Miami wants to move him however.

 

I was just thinking that naming a one for one player might make more sense- maybe someone valued a little more than Mayer is - like...

 

66 Logan Gilbert (5 yrs of control)

64 Freddy Peralta (4)

61 Zac Gallen (3)

57 Max Fried (just 2 yrs)

57 Shane Bieber (just 2 yrs)

51 Christian Javier (3 yrs but worth less than Mayer on BTV)

.

[moonslav59]

These scenarios are logical, though #1 makes the most sense for the longterm budget -- and I hope it would lead to a Devers' extension... but I just have a bad Mookie feeling about the whole Raffy situation right now.

 

Getting Bloom to part with a good prospect, instead of good money, may be more likely at this stage of the rebuild. And for those who like how his former employer operates, even they dealt a first-rounder recently for a young toolsy player they targeted named Arozarena.

 

BTV accepts this:

 

Rafaela, Dugo, Walter and Jordan

for

Lopez, Soler and Berti (Soler as a salary dump who can play LF for the Sox in 2023.)

 

We then sign Bogey or Correa and a couple very solid pen arms and are still way under the tax line- enough to sign Nate or Kluber and a catching upgrade.

 

1. Berti RF

2. Devers 3B

3. Story 2B

4. Correa/Bogey SS

5. Kike CF

6. Casas 1B

7. Soler LF

8. Dalbec-Hosmer-Valdez-Arroyo-Refsnyder DH/Bench

9. McGuire/Wong

 

SP: Lopez, Sale/Paxton (count as one), Whitlock, Nate or Kluber, Bello, Pivetta

RP: _____, Houck, _____, Schreiber, Barnes, Kelly, Crawford/Wink/Mata/Brasier/Taylor/German/Politi

 

[mvp 78]

Rafaela hasn't been hitting too well for Caguas. Time to trade???????

[moonslav59]

Rafaela hasn't been hitting too well for Caguas. Time to trade???????

 

I really like Rafaela. His defense and flexibility are huge pluses and make him valuable, even if his bat never amounts to anything above average.

 

I don't think this small sample size changes his trade value or likelihood, but I do see him as one of the obvious subjects of this winter's trade suggestions.

[mvp 78]

I really like Rafaela. His defense and flexibility are huge pluses and make him valuable, even if his bat never amounts to anything above average.

 

I don't think this small sample size changes his trade value or likelihood, but I do see him as one of the obvious subjects of this winter's trade suggestions.

 

If his bat is "average," he's an All Star.

[moonslav59]

If his bat is "average," he's an All Star.

 

That's big if and the big "gamble," if we choose to trade him, this winter.

 

Personally, I think he's worth more than the 15 BTV gives him, but trading Mayer, when we need a SS seems less likely.

 

We do need an OF'er, too and another one after Kike leaves, and Rafaela could probably be a plus D SS, too.

 

Tough decisions to make. More likely, we trade neither one.

[Hugh2]

On certain issues I tend to defer to Soxprospects take more than anyone. Especially on any baseball player outside of the top 50. I'm not saying they have superior scouting, they do not, but they do have more eyes on our players than anyone else. I've seen them ring the bells on guys all the time being overhyped and their fears materialized. For example, they were much lower on Lars Anderson than the national media was and they were proven correct, as they were to date with Jurran Duran as well. The opposite is true, they thought Xander Bogaerts was a high-ceiling future all-star 2 years before he made any top 100 lists (much in the mold of Bleis now).

 

They seem to think Rafaela is being overhyped now. They still think he can be a stud, and an allstar if the bat develops, but they seem to have some concerns about his hit tool.

 

At the very least, this should have anyone from thinking he's going to break through to the big leagues next year, or even be a staple in the lineup by 2024. He may end up just being a good 4th outfielder. I like him, but the hit tool seems to be an issue.

[moonslav59]

On certain issues I tend to defer to Soxprospects take more than anyone. Especially on any baseball player outside of the top 50. I'm not saying they have superior scouting, they do not, but they do have more eyes on our players than anyone else. I've seen them ring the bells on guys all the time being overhyped and their fears materialized. For example, they were much lower on Lars Anderson than the national media was and they were proven correct, as they were to date with Jurran Duran as well. The opposite is true, they thought Xander Bogaerts was a high-ceiling future all-star 2 years before he made any top 100 lists (much in the mold of Bleis now).

 

They seem to think Rafaela is being overhyped now. They still think he can be a stud, and an allstar if the bat develops, but they seem to have some concerns about his hit tool.

 

At the very least, this should have anyone from thinking he's going to break through to the big leagues next year, or even be a staple in the lineup by 2024. He may end up just being a good 4th outfielder. I like him, but the hit tool seems to be an issue.

 

The thing is, he can make the bigs on his D alone. Add the versatile D, and he will make it in some role.

 

Yes, his bat will determine 4th OF/Utility status vs FT'er or even All Star, and I share in SP's and MVP's concerns about that ever happening.

 

If we are going to trade a top prospect but want to keep Bello, Casas, Mayer and Bleis, who is left that can net us some solid talent?

[Hugh2]

The thing is, he can make the bigs on his D alone. Add the versatile D, and he will make it in some role.

 

Yes, his bat will determine 4th OF/Utility status vs FT'er or even All Star, and I share in SP's and MVP's concerns about that ever happening.

 

If we are going to trade a top prospect but want to keep Bello, Casas, Mayer and Bleis, who is left that can net us some solid talent?

 

That's fine, and that's great, and he can still be a valuable useful player. But this team needs 3 starting outfielders and after 2023 they have one in Verdugo and he will be a FA after that as well.

 

This team could really use another outfielder whether via FA or trade.

[notin]

On certain issues I tend to defer to Soxprospects take more than anyone. Especially on any baseball player outside of the top 50. I'm not saying they have superior scouting, they do not, but they do have more eyes on our players than anyone else. I've seen them ring the bells on guys all the time being overhyped and their fears materialized. For example, they were much lower on Lars Anderson than the national media was and they were proven correct, as they were to date with Jurran Duran as well. The opposite is true, they thought Xander Bogaerts was a high-ceiling future all-star 2 years before he made any top 100 lists (much in the mold of Bleis now).

 

They seem to think Rafaela is being overhyped now. They still think he can be a stud, and an allstar if the bat develops, but they seem to have some concerns about his hit tool.

 

At the very least, this should have anyone from thinking he's going to break through to the big leagues next year, or even be a staple in the lineup by 2024. He may end up just being a good 4th outfielder. I like him, but the hit tool seems to be an issue.

 

They used to list MLB Comparables for some prospects, and they had Lars Anderson’s comp as Justin Morneau. They weren’t all that down on him…

[notin]

Add Senga to the list of free agents Boston has contacted.

 

 

Unknown sources have confirmed this. For what that odd worth…

[Bellhorn04]

Add Senga to the list of free agents Boston has contacted.

 

 

Unknown sources have confirmed this. For what that odd worth…

 

Add to the pile of reported interest.

[mvp 78]

Add to the pile of reported interest.

 

The kings.

[mvp 78]

They used to list MLB Comparables for some prospects, and they had Lars Anderson’s comp as Justin Morneau. They weren’t all that down on him…

 

The comparable was for ceiling, not for projection from what I remember of that dumb system.

[Hugh2]

They used to list MLB Comparables for some prospects, and they had Lars Anderson’s comp as Justin Morneau. They weren’t all that down on him…

 

They weren't that down on him, they just weren't as high as everyone else and said repeatedly they thought the national media had him ranked too high. They said the same thing about Jurran Durran two years ago, in that they thought the national media had him ranked way too high.

 

Also, Soxprospects did away with comps for a very good reason in that they completely hated them.

[Hugh2]

Alex Reyes gets non-tendered, he just seems to make too much sense did this bullpen. Does someone have naked pictures of Bloom? We need to get this done!

[notin]

Alex Reyes gets non-tendered, he just seems to make too much sense did this bullpen. Does someone have naked pictures of Bloom? We need to get this done!

 

Reyes had shoulder surgery in May/June will not be ready to start the 2033 season. His return date is unknown just yet, but he probably gets back on the mound a good 2-3 days before his next injury…

[Hugh2]

Reyes had shoulder surgery in May/June will not be ready to start the 2033 season. His return date is unknown just yet, but he probably gets back on the mound a good 2-3 days before his next injury…

 

The guy would be equivalent to trade for a high-end closer mid-season which would make sense for a timeline. Without giving up any prospects and for almost no money. Might be worth exploring a 40 man spot on.