2023 Free Agents

[mvp 78]

On Joey Gallo:

 

Fenway would be the WORST park for his swing

 

Gallo's wOBA in 2021 and 2022 with no shift was WORSE that with a shift

 

Even though he gets a good jump and has a strong arm, he still had a 0 OAA in RF in 2022 and a -3 OAA in LF in 2022

[moonslav59]

The tough part is that the Sox will be better off building via trades rather than FA this offseason. It's just not a good class this year. They have extra money, but nothing to really spend it on.

 

There should be several opportunities to take on salary from other teams looking to make budget cuts or to improve their budget spending by shedding dead money or likely dead money. The big plus for the Sox would be that the team would have to fork over another, younger and better player as a reward for helping them shed salary- kinda like Ottavino & German for basically nothing.

 

One scenario might be to take on a big contract player that still has some hopes of doing well in 2023.

 

Here are a few teams and players with their BTV numbers:

 

Marlins:

-33 A Garcia (RF)

-21 Soler (LF- Dugo to RF)

 

Brewers:

-126 Yelich (CF)

 

Diamondbacks:

-36 Marte (2B/OF)

-33 Bumgarner (SP)

-7 Melancon (RP)

-6 Ahmed (SS)

 

Royals -17 Dozier (1B)

 

Tigers

-32 Baez (SS/2B)

-29 ERod (SP)

 

Twins

-7 Dobnak (SP)

-5 Maeda (SP)

 

Nats

-138 Strasburg

-54 Corbin

 

Reds

-22 Moustakas

 

White Sox

-13 Moncada (2B/3B/DH)

-12 Grandal ©

-10 Garcia (UT)

-5 Lynn (SP)

 

Cardinals:

-12 Matz (SP)

 

Braves:

-9 Rosario (LF)

-5 Morton (SP)

 

Cubs

-21 Suzuki (RF)

-11 Stroman (SP)

-10 Hendricks (SP)

 

Rockies

-109 Bryant (3B/LF)

-32 Freeland (SP)

-14 Blackmon (OF)

-12 Diaz ©

-5 Grichuk (LF)

 

Giants:

-8 DeSclafani (SP)

 

Mariners:

-20 White (1B)

+2 Winker (OF)

 

Phillies:

-64 Castellanos (DH/OF)

-9 Kingery

 

Mets:

-9 Carrasco

 

Yanks

-21 Donaldson (3B/DH)

-21 Hicks (OF)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Now, THAT is a lot of IL time.

 

Hey, man, this isn't the Dan Duquette Era -- we don't sign any prime timers without injured histories.

 

While we're at it -- Sox fans in the 2020s -- let's trade Verdugo for a Choi-like return (Double A reliever) and go with this trio: Brantley-Keirmaier-Haniger. Btw, I'd also add Abreu as DH/back-up 1B.

 

Would these moves to replace Bogey, JD and Doogie make the Red Sox any better? Maybe not, but the front office can spin the change-as-improvement in the charge out of the basement in seek of a wild card.

[Hugh2]

The tough part is that the Sox will be better off building via trades rather than FA this offseason. It's just not a good class this year. They have extra money, but nothing to really spend it on.

 

This really sucks, because they're rebuilding the farm and you'd think they're 1-2 years away from being able to trade away from depth and hold onto high-end assets in the name for sustained success. With the budget they have it would be the season you'd WANT them to spend big in FA.

[Hugh2]

Thank you for your generous contribution to a worthy cause.

 

Does our $25 depend on Red giving rare specifics?

 

In the spirit of the argument, I expect him to build an outfield minus Kike, because he did not like the signing. I would concede him using Kike as a 4th guy seeing how everyone else gets to use Kike. But, everyone else gets $5 contribution, he gets $100

[moonslav59]

In the spirit of the argument, I expect him to build an outfield minus Kike, because he did not like the signing. I would concede him using Kike as a 4th guy seeing how everyone else gets to use Kike. But, everyone else gets $5 contribution, he gets $100

 

Sometimes I wonder if his disdain for Kike started when I said he had the best defensive season by any Sox CF'er since the early 70's. That really pissed him off.

 

(I walked that statement back to say "one of the best," while recognizing Lynn, JBJ and Crisp for having great defensive seasons, too.)

 

While I think Kike is a plus at 2B and maybe at SS, too, I think CF is his best position on defense.

[moonslav59]

This really sucks, because they're rebuilding the farm and you'd think they're 1-2 years away from being able to trade away from depth and hold onto high-end assets in the name for sustained success. With the budget they have it would be the season you'd WANT them to spend big in FA.

 

If top management views the start of the window as 2024, which makes sense, if you X out the fan reactions to 2023 being a 4th rebuild year in a row, it would make sense to only make trades that help more in 2024 and beyond than 2023. Only make signings that are 1 year long or younger players like Correa.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In the spirit of the argument, I expect him to build an outfield minus Kike, because he did not like the signing. I would concede him using Kike as a 4th guy seeing how everyone else gets to use Kike. But, everyone else gets $5 contribution, he gets $100

 

Hugh, Kike is playing shortstop. He basically already admitted it, but said he hopes he's back in center, because that would mean X is still here.

 

Bloom isn't getting out of Bogey's contract, only to reinvest it, and more, on one replacement player... especially with his #1 prospect due to take over at minimum wage in another year or so.

[Hugh2]

If top management views the start of the window as 2024, which makes sense, if you X out the fan reactions to 2023 being a 4th rebuild year in a row, it would make sense to only make trades that help more in 2024 and beyond than 2023. Only make signings that are 1 year long or younger players like Correa.

 

If 2024 is the start date. To me, the most viable use of resources this offseason would be to use the cap space to bring in contracts for prospects to trade or MLB players with a lessened price tag. Obviously big deals will be made. I'm sure the Sox make at least one BIG FA signing this offseason with a mixture of other types of moves.

[Hugh2]

Hugh, Kike is playing shortstop. He basically already admitted it, but said he hopes he's back in center, because that would mean X is still here.

 

Bloom isn't getting out of Bogey's contract, only to reinvest it, and more, on one replacement player... especially with his #1 prospect due to take over at minimum wage in another year or so.

 

I don't think the team, or any team make long term investments on the basis of players who are below AA. That's a mantra I've seen repeated by industry experts time and time again. Also, if you're signing Bogaerts, if they do it's because Bogey isn't getting what he thought he would on the open market and is comfortable coming back here with the ideal he moves to 3B in 2-3 years.

 

Also, you can't rule them signing Correa out. I seriously doubt Kike is starting at SS next year. He's started a total of 64 games there his entire career, I don't see how they make him a full time SS at 31 when they have 95 million to spend and 4 elite SS on the market. Maybe he's their back up plan, but it's probably plan f or k at this point. IMHO.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't think the team, or any team make long term investments on the basis of players who are below AA. That's a mantra I've seen repeated by industry experts time and time again. Also, if you're signing Bogaerts, if they do it's because Bogey isn't getting what he thought he would on the open market and is comfortable coming back here with the ideal he moves to 3B in 2-3 years.

 

Also, you can't rule them signing Correa out. I seriously doubt Kike is starting at SS next year. He's started a total of 64 games there his entire career, I don't see how they make him a full time SS at 31 when they have 95 million to spend and 4 elite SS on the market. Maybe he's their back up plan, but it's probably plan f or k at this point. IMHO.

 

As a hopeful Red Sox fan, I hope you're right and they sign either Xander or Carlos.

 

As a pragmatic cynical of the past three offseasons, I look at every possible free agent and trade target now and hear Chaim Bloom ringing in my ears: "It has to make sense..."

 

If you really consider the latter, shouldn't a last place team be prudent and hang onto most of its resources while making incremental steps forward?

[mvp 78]

This really sucks, because they're rebuilding the farm and you'd think they're 1-2 years away from being able to trade away from depth and hold onto high-end assets in the name for sustained success. With the budget they have it would be the season you'd WANT them to spend big in FA.

 

Yup.

[moonslav59]

If 2024 is the start date. To me, the most viable use of resources this offseason would be to use the cap space to bring in contracts for prospects to trade or MLB players with a lessened price tag. Obviously big deals will be made. I'm sure the Sox make at least one BIG FA signing this offseason with a mixture of other types of moves.

 

There is budget spade to make 10 Ottavino type trades, in theory. One and done contracts that bring youth hopes attached. That won't be what we do, but one or two trades like that make sense, to me.

 

I do think we can make one big splash signing like Correa. It will help lessen the blow of losing Bogey and keep hopes for 2023 high enough to not see a big drop in attention by fans. He's young enough to still be a plus from 2024-2026 or longer. There is no QO attached. The one downside is Mayer may be ready by 2024 at min salary, but if 2024 is the start of the window, we can trade him for a key piece or trade Story or Correa, if possible.

[Hugh2]

There is budget spade to make 10 Ottavino type trades, in theory. One and done contracts that bring youth hopes attached. That won't be what we do, but one or two trades like that make sense, to me.

 

I do think we can make one big splash signing like Correa. It will help lessen the blow of losing Bogey and keep hopes for 2023 high enough to not see a big drop in attention by fans. He's young enough to still be a plus from 2024-2026 or longer. There is no QO attached. The one downside is Mayer may be ready by 2024 at min salary, but if 2024 is the start of the window, we can trade him for a key piece or trade Story or Correa, if possible.

 

Correa also doesn’t lose you a pick. It’s the perfect t move for a guy like Bloom trying to make a big splash with an owner who will actually back such a move and allows him to retain his coveted draft picks.

[Hugh2]

Anyone notice how Red has been MIA after I went all put up or shut up on him?

 

He totally strikes me as the type of guy to disappear and come back in a day or two with some story about his aunt dying or his dog getting run over. Refusal to concede at any cost!

 

Here’s the real kicker. It ain’t even about being right or wrong. Just name your outfield.

[mvp 78]

Hey, man, this isn't the Dan Duquette Era -- we don't sign any prime timers without injured histories.

 

While we're at it -- Sox fans in the 2020s -- let's trade Verdugo for a Choi-like return (Double A reliever) and go with this trio: Brantley-Keirmaier-Haniger. Btw, I'd also add Abreu as DH/back-up 1B.

 

Would these moves to replace Bogey, JD and Doogie make the Red Sox any better? Maybe not, but the front office can spin the change-as-improvement in the charge out of the basement in seek of a wild card.

 

I'm not a fan of what Abreu did last season.

[notin]

Hugh, Kike is playing shortstop. He basically already admitted it, but said he hopes he's back in center, because that would mean X is still here.

 

Bloom isn't getting out of Bogey's contract, only to reinvest it, and more, on one replacement player... especially with his #1 prospect due to take over at minimum wage in another year or so.

 

 

If the idea was to move Kike to SS and sign Nimmo, that’s a clever move

 

OPS+ from 2020 to 2023

 

Nimmo: 133

Bogaerts: 130

 

But if Nimmo is only looking at 5 years / $110, you can’t re-sign Bogaerts at that price… That’s a lower AAV than Bogaerts already rejected…

[mvp 78]

There is budget spade to make 10 Ottavino type trades, in theory. One and done contracts that bring youth hopes attached. That won't be what we do, but one or two trades like that make sense, to me.

 

I do think we can make one big splash signing like Correa. It will help lessen the blow of losing Bogey and keep hopes for 2023 high enough to not see a big drop in attention by fans. He's young enough to still be a plus from 2024-2026 or longer. There is no QO attached. The one downside is Mayer may be ready by 2024 at min salary, but if 2024 is the start of the window, we can trade him for a key piece or trade Story or Correa, if possible.

 

moon just itching to make a CLIFF...

[moonslav59]

As a hopeful Red Sox fan, I hope you're right and they sign either Xander or Carlos.

 

As a pragmatic cynical of the past three offseasons, I look at every possible free agent and trade target now and hear Chaim Bloom ringing in my ears: "It has to make sense..."

 

If you really consider the latter, shouldn't a last place team be prudent and hang onto most of its resources while making incremental steps forward?

 

Yes, or any resources you use should only be used, if they help the team in 2024 and beyond, emphasis on beyond.

 

If the idea is to wait for Mayer, then we may just add a 1 year SS or slide Kike there and add another OF to the winder wish list.

 

Recent grads and MLB ready or near ready Sox players:

 

C Wong, RHern (Nathan in 2025?)

1B Casas (Jordan/Kavadas in 2025?)

2B E Valdez (DH), Yorke

3B Binelas (Jordan 1B in '25? Paulino in '25?)

SS Mayer, Lugo, Rafaela, Downs, Bonaci (Romero & Coffey in '26?)

OF Rafaela, Abreu, Duran (Paulino in '25 and Bleis & Anthony in '26)

P Bello, Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Walter, TWard, Kelly, German, Murphy, Seabold

(Wikelman & others in '25 and Perales & others in '26)

 

[moonslav59]

moon just itching to make a CLIFF...

 

I didn't think the 2022 team was a last place team. I thought we'd be on the upswing after the 2020 "cliff" bottomed out. I thought 2021 might be a cliff, too, but the surprise maybe got my hopes up too high on '22.

 

I would not consider 2023 to part of the cliff, but not being a top competitor can be explained by rebounding from it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes, or any resources you use should only be used, if they help the team in 2024 and beyond, emphasis on beyond.

 

If the idea is to wait for Mayer, then we may just add a 1 year SS or slide Kike there and add another OF to the winder wish list.

 

Recent grads and MLB ready or near ready Sox players:

 

C Wong, RHern (Nathan in 2025?)

1B Casas (Jordan/Kavadas in 2025?)

2B E Valdez (DH), Yorke

3B Binelas (Jordan 1B in '25? Paulino in '25?)

SS Mayer, Lugo, Rafaela, Downs, Bonaci (Romero & Coffey in '26?)

OF Rafaela, Abreu, Duran (Paulino in '25 and Bleis & Anthony in '26)

P Bello, Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Walter, TWard, Kelly, German, Murphy, Seabold

(Wikelman & others in '25 and Perales & others in '26)

 

 

Whoa, I can't wait til 2026! Four more years, four more years...

 

Old man Devers will be turning 30 during the '26 World Series! That's like another 300 extra base hits from now.

[moonslav59]

Whoa, I can't wait til 2026! Four more years, four more years...

 

Old man Devers will be turning 30 during the '26 World Series! That's like another 300 extra base hits from now.

 

This list looks a lot more encouraging than the 2019, 2020 or 2021 list.

 

Not all will help, but the sheer quantity of decent players on that list, many ready now or sometime in 2023 or 2024 is enough to not think we are 4 years away from having a solid foundation to add key FA and trade pieces to build a ring team by 2024 or 2025.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This list looks a lot more encouraging than the 2019, 2020 or 2021 list.

 

Not all will help, but the sheer quantity of decent players on that list, many ready now or sometime in 2023 or 2024 is enough to not think we are 4 years away from having a solid foundation to add key FA and trade pieces to build a ring team by 2024 or 2025.

 

On a future internet article on the 2026 World Series, there was some debate about giving Raffy's hamstrings a break by DHing him. Red Sox GM Alex Cora and Manager Pedro Martinez finally compromised to just DH Devers in the road games in Montreal.

[mvp 78]

Yes, or any resources you use should only be used, if they help the team in 2024 and beyond, emphasis on beyond.

 

If the idea is to wait for Mayer, then we may just add a 1 year SS or slide Kike there and add another OF to the winder wish list.

 

Recent grads and MLB ready or near ready Sox players:

 

C Wong, RHern (Nathan in 2025?)

1B Casas (Jordan/Kavadas in 2025?)

2B E Valdez (DH), Yorke

3B Binelas (Jordan 1B in '25? Paulino in '25?)

SS Mayer, Lugo, Rafaela, Downs, Bonaci (Romero & Coffey in '26?)

OF Rafaela, Abreu, Duran (Paulino in '25 and Bleis & Anthony in '26)

P Bello, Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Walter, TWard, Kelly, German, Murphy, Seabold

(Wikelman & others in '25 and Perales & others in '26)

 

 

C - There is a question of if they will drop RHern from the 40 man and add Stephen Scott even though he's not ready for MLB action. He could be a Vogt type who splits between C/1b/LF/DH.

1B - I think Casas is set for the next 6 years unless the injury issues keep creeping up. Blaze is kind of interesting, but could also just be trade bait.

2B - Yorke can stick at 2b, but his season was so disappointing and his injury concerns make him a lottery ticket that may not be worth waiting on. However, you can just put Bonaci, Paulino, Romero, Lugo or a few other guys here.

SS - Seems to be Mayer's spot to lose? I don't see why they'd trade him.

3B - Binelas was terrible. Lugo has a chance to be a backup, but I'm not sure how much more. I don't think Blaze has the glove for 3b. They should just lock Devers up.

OF - Rafaela and Bleis are far and away their best OF prospects. Maybe they move Blaze to LF? Roman Anthony should be good, but we'll see.

[mvp 78]

Whoa, I can't wait til 2026! Four more years, four more years...

 

Old man Devers will be turning 30 during the '26 World Series! That's like another 300 extra base hits from now.

 

I think it just means that they can sign some guys to short term contracts for high dollar amounts and stay competitive before the young guys show up.

[moonslav59]

C - There is a question of if they will drop RHern from the 40 man and add Stephen Scott even though he's not ready for MLB action. He could be a Vogt type who splits between C/1b/LF/DH.

1B - I think Casas is set for the next 6 years unless the injury issues keep creeping up. Blaze is kind of interesting, but could also just be trade bait.

2B - Yorke can stick at 2b, but his season was so disappointing and his injury concerns make him a lottery ticket that may not be worth waiting on. However, you can just put Bonaci, Paulino, Romero, Lugo or a few other guys here.

SS - Seems to be Mayer's spot to lose? I don't see why they'd trade him.

3B - Binelas was terrible. Lugo has a chance to be a backup, but I'm not sure how much more. I don't think Blaze has the glove for 3b. They should just lock Devers up.

OF - Rafaela and Bleis are far and away their best OF prospects. Maybe they move Blaze to LF? Roman Anthony should be good, but we'll see.

 

They may trade Mayer, if the sign Correa or Bogey. I guess they could move Bogey to 3B or LF as early as 2024, but is he worth $200M/7 in LF?

 

I don't think the trade Mayer. We may play Kike at SS in 2023 or add or sign a 1 year bridge player. Maybe we go big in the OF and pitching staff, this winter, and punt at SS.

[moonslav59]

C - There is a question of if they will drop RHern from the 40 man and add Stephen Scott even though he's not ready for MLB action. He could be a Vogt type who splits between C/1b/LF/DH.

 

I could see us trading RHern, but not for anything special. Is Caleb Hamilton a lock for the 40, or does he go to make room for Scott, too?

 

Also, do you think Scott would be selected on the Rule 5 Draft? If no, maybe we don't need to add him to the 40, in 2023.

[notin]

C - There is a question of if they will drop RHern from the 40 man and add Stephen Scott even though he's not ready for MLB action. He could be a Vogt type who splits between C/1b/LF/DH.

 

I could see us trading RHern, but not for anything special. Is Caleb Hamilton a lock for the 40, or does he go to make room for Scott, too?

 

Also, do you think Scott would be selected on the Rule 5 Draft? If no, maybe we don't need to add him to the 40, in 2023.

 

Unless they plan to use Scott this year…

[mvp 78]

C - There is a question of if they will drop RHern from the 40 man and add Stephen Scott even though he's not ready for MLB action. He could be a Vogt type who splits between C/1b/LF/DH.

 

I could see us trading RHern, but not for anything special. Is Caleb Hamilton a lock for the 40, or does he go to make room for Scott, too?

 

Also, do you think Scott would be selected on the Rule 5 Draft? If no, maybe we don't need to add him to the 40, in 2023.

 

"Would be selected" vs "could be selected." Would be for sure? No. Could be maybe? Yes. I think the Sox just need to decide which guy they want to keep on the 40 man. Seems like Hernandez didn't provide all that much upside last season and his defense still stinks. At least Scott has the versatility to play multiple positions.

[mvp 78]

Unless they plan to use Scott this year…

 

I don't think they would. They probably would want another year of seasoning at least. He's only been catching fulltime for one year.