A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

What notin just said!!!!

 

How can we know anything was botched or not, without ever knowing what Bogey would have accepted, if offered?

 

It's all speculation, and even if we could have gotten Bogey for $160M/6 (doubtful,) are we sure yet, that was a botch? It's not like the history on these types of deals is an exact science.

 

That being said, I do wish we could have kept Bogey, especially after losing Betts.

 

In hindsight, I wish DD had worked the Bogey extension better and paid him more to not have the opt out, and extended Betts and not Sale & Nate. Once all those deals were set or not set, the die was cast.

 

We can argue till the cows come home about "JH spending more, if he wanted to," but the fact is he didn't want to, and he did not do it.

[moonslav59]

Years matter…

 

Indeed, but even just looking at it year-by-year, the budget logistics just isn't there.

 

It only works, if we assume JH would have spent more, or we have to figure in that others would have been traded away, instead of Betts.

 

Sale & half-Price or 3/4 Price?

 

Nate and 3/4 Price?

 

JD and 3/4 Price?

 

JD & Nate?

[Old Red]

How can we know anything was botched or not, without ever knowing what Bogey would have accepted, if offered?

 

It's all speculation, and even if we could have gotten Bogey for $160M/6 (doubtful,) are we sure yet, that was a botch? It's not like the history on these types of deals is an exact science.

 

That being said, I do wish we could have kept Bogey, especially after losing Betts.

 

In hindsight, I wish DD had worked the Bogey extension better and paid him more to not have the opt out, and extended Betts and not Sale & Nate. Once all those deals were set or not set, the die was cast.

 

We can argue till the cows come home about "JH spending more, if he wanted to," but the fact is he didn't want to, and he did not do it.

 

B O O! B O O! If JH shows his face again I’m sure it will rain down on him again. Ticket sales are lagging, and sponsors are also lagging. B O O!

[notin]

[u-]How can we know anything was botched or not, without ever knowing what Bogey would have accepted, if offered?[/u]

 

It's all speculation, and even if we could have gotten Bogey for $160M/6 (doubtful,) are we sure yet, that was a botch? It's not like the history on these types of deals is an exact science.

 

That being said, I do wish we could have kept Bogey, especially after losing Betts.

 

In hindsight, I wish DD had worked the Bogey extension better and paid him more to not have the opt out, and extended Betts and not Sale & Nate. Once all those deals were set or not set, the die was cast.

 

We can argue till the cows come home about "JH spending more, if he wanted to," but the fact is he didn't want to, and he did not do it.

 

Ask Old Red. He sat in on most of the negotiations…

[moonslav59]

B O O! B O O! If JH shows his face again I’m sure it will rain down on him again. Ticket sales are lagging, and sponsors are also lagging. B O O!

 

LMAO! Good one.

[Nick]

How can we know anything was botched or not, without ever knowing what Bogey would have accepted, if offered?

[/QUOIt's all speculation, and even if we could have gotten Bogey for $160M/6 (doubtful,) are we sure yet, that was a botch? It's not like the history on these types of deals is an exact science.

 

That being said, I do wish we could have kept Bogey, especially after losing Betts.

 

In hindsight, I wish DD had worked the Bogey extension better and paid him more to not have the opt out, and extended Betts and not Sale & Nate. Once all those deals were set or not set, the die was cast.

 

We can argue till the cows come home about "JH spending more, if he wanted to," but the fact is he didn't want to, and he did not do it

 

Wasn't that in essence Notin's point? That I agreed with? Sox hedged the bet by signing Story. That came out of left field for me but it sure looked liked they were looking at the possibility of focusing more on Devers than Xander with the Story signing.

 

You do know that Sox could have signed Xander if they really wanted to.....sure they wanted to buy a car, but JH had put a budget on it. Xander was bigger priority.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Nick

[harmony]

On The Athletic's Top 100 prospect list Keith Law ranks Marcelo Mayer No. 11, Ceddanne Rafaela No. 37, Triston Casas No. 40 and Miguel Bleis No. 72:

 

https://theathletic.com/4132943/2023/01/30/top-100-mlb-prospects-2023-keith-law/?source=pulsenewsletter&campaign=6026672

Subscription required.

[mvp 78]

On The Athletic's Top 100 prospect list Keith Law ranks Marcelo Mayer No. 11, Ceddanne Rafaela No. 37, Triston Casas No. 40 and Miguel Bleis No. 72:

 

https://theathletic.com/4132943/2023/01/30/top-100-mlb-prospects-2023-keith-law/?source=pulsenewsletter&campaign=6026672

Subscription required.

 

Rafaela should NOT be higher than Casas.

 

Rafaela is 86 on MLB Pipeline and 71 on Baseball America. Law is way too high on him.

[moonslav59]

How can we know anything was botched or not, without ever knowing what Bogey would have accepted, if offered?

[/QUOIt's all speculation, and even if we could have gotten Bogey for $160M/6 (doubtful,) are we sure yet, that was a botch? It's not like the history on these types of deals is an exact science.

 

That being said, I do wish we could have kept Bogey, especially after losing Betts.

 

In hindsight, I wish DD had worked the Bogey extension better and paid him more to not have the opt out, and extended Betts and not Sale & Nate. Once all those deals were set or not set, the die was cast.

 

We can argue till the cows come home about "JH spending more, if he wanted to," but the fact is he didn't want to, and he did not do it

 

Wasn't that in essence Notin's point? That I agreed with? Sox hedged the bet by signing Story. That came out of left field for me but it sure looked liked they were looking at the possibility of focusing more on Devers than Xander with the Story signing.

 

You do know that Sox could have signed Xander if they really wanted to.....sure they wanted to buy a car, but JH had put a budget on it. Xander was bigger priority.

 

Yes, I got your point and agree with it.

 

I do think we could have gotten Bogey to sign, if we really wanted him, but I do not think they ever felt he was worth the amount it would have taken to get him- even at the lower possible amounts from a year or two ago.

 

My added point was about some just blindly saying Bloom "botched the Bogey signing" that goes beyond the idea that maybe we never really wanted him, so calling it a botch can only be about the poster thinking he was worth signing and the Sox blew it by not signing a plyer worth signing. (What else is new?)

 

My point was about do we even know Bogey will be worth $160M/6 or $200M/7?

 

Until we know that, saying "botched: is speculative, too.

[mvp 78]

37. Ceddanne Rafaela

"...His defense is elite and he’s a 70 runner as well, so he doesn’t have to hit that much to be a solid big leaguer, and he could be an above-average regular as a low-OBP, 20+ homer guy. The hope is that he improves the choices he’s making as a hitter and that he recognizes pitch types sooner with experience and reduces some of that chase to give himself a chance to be a high-average hitter and potential star on both sides of the ball."

 

40. Triston Casas

"He’s a first baseman who rakes, and should be the traditional slugger for that position, hitting for some average with a ton of walks and either 40-odd doubles or 25-plus homers."

[mvp 78]

Yes, I got your point and agree with it.

 

I do think we could have gotten Bogey to sign, if we really wanted him, but I do not think they ever felt he was worth the amount it would have taken to get him- even at the lower possible amounts from a year or two ago.

 

My added point was about some just blindly saying Bloom "botched the Bogey signing" that goes beyond the idea that maybe we never really wanted him, so calling it a botch can only be about the poster thinking he was worth signing and the Sox blew it by not signing a plyer worth signing. (What else is new?)

 

My point was about do we even know Bogey will be worth $160M/6 or $200M/7?

 

Until we know that, saying "botched: is speculative, too.

 

Well, they were wrong about that part. They ended up needing him since Story was damaged goods. With the added upper AAV swing in SS contracts, Xander could have either been dealt elsewhere or kept as a below market deal.

[moonslav59]

Well, they were wrong about that part. They ended up needing him since Story was damaged goods. With the added upper AAV swing in SS contracts, Xander could have either been dealt elsewhere or kept as a below market deal.

 

They were wrong, only if Bogey plays well going forward, as with any FA signing.

 

I've said all along, I wish we kept him and were able to sign him for way less a year or so ago. My point is, it's all speculation, and not only that, we are speculating on an amount that is speculative. If we never know what he would have taken, we'll probably never know if he would have been worth it.

 

Yes, the recent Story injury makes keeping him more valuable, but even if we could have had him for $25M x 6 or 7 years, are we sure we'd be better with him, instead of Jansen & Turner or Turner, Kluber and Duval?

 

And, those comps don't come close to matching the longer term aspects of signing Bogey.

 

It's fine to disagree on whether it was worth letting Bogey go or not, but without knowing the exact amount, it's hard to be certain, and either way, it ends up depending on how well he does, going forward.

[Old Red]

They were wrong, only if Bogey plays well going forward, as with any FA signing.

 

I've said all along, I wish we kept him and were able to sign him for way less a year or so ago. My point is, it's all speculation, and not only that, we are speculating on an amount that is speculative. If we never know what he would have taken, we'll probably never know if he would have been worth it.

 

Yes, the recent Story injury makes keeping him more valuable, but even if we could have had him for $25M x 6 or 7 years, are we sure we'd be better with him, instead of Jansen & Turner or Turner, Kluber and Duval?

 

And, those comps don't come close to matching the longer term aspects of signing Bogey.

 

It's fine to disagree on whether it was worth letting Bogey go or not, but without knowing the exact amount, it's hard to be certain, and either way, it ends up depending on how well he does, going forward.

 

You keep saying we don’t know what it would have taken to sign Bogey a year ago, and that is true, but the reason for that is, because Bloom never made him a legitimate offer. A 1 yr $30M ext was a joke, and Bloom was a joke it offering it. I said it then, and I’ll say it now that Bloom read the room so bad, and that is where the BOTCHED came in. Why do you think Henry has gotten Booed when he’s shown his face in public, or Bloom getting booed trying to shout down some PAYING customers? I think more than anything it’s, because of the way they handled the Bogey situation, and also that is a reason ticket sales, and sponsorship ship is lagging, because of Bogey being treated the way he was.

[mvp 78]

They were wrong, only if Bogey plays well going forward, as with any FA signing.

 

I've said all along, I wish we kept him and were able to sign him for way less a year or so ago. My point is, it's all speculation, and not only that, we are speculating on an amount that is speculative. If we never know what he would have taken, we'll probably never know if he would have been worth it.

 

Yes, the recent Story injury makes keeping him more valuable, but even if we could have had him for $25M x 6 or 7 years, are we sure we'd be better with him, instead of Jansen & Turner or Turner, Kluber and Duval?

 

And, those comps don't come close to matching the longer term aspects of signing Bogey.

 

It's fine to disagree on whether it was worth letting Bogey go or not, but without knowing the exact amount, it's hard to be certain, and either way, it ends up depending on how well he does, going forward.

 

Fine, let's just go with 25x7 for arguments sake.

 

I can safely say that he'll play better than Story will over the next few years. I don't think Bogey will be worth the Padres contract, but the reported lower contract he would have accepted seems attainable. He would need to amass about 22 fWAR over the next 7 years, which seems doable.

 

And if they kept Xander for this one season, why would they necessarily have to get under the cap this season? They could still sign the same guys you mentioned, but wouldn't need Duvall and could get Turner on a 1x15M. They could just use next year to reset. Or just don't bring in Turner either and get someone cheaper in as a DH option like Jesus Aguilar or whoever. Duvall is only here because Kiké was moved to the IF because Story was moved to SS but got hurt. If Xander stays, Story stays at 2b and you Story's injury still leaves Arroyo as the starting 2B, which is where we are at anyway.

[notin]

Rafaela should NOT be higher than Casas.

 

Rafaela is 86 on MLB Pipeline and 71 on Baseball America. Law is way too high on him.

 

If Rafaela is higher, it’s presumably due to Casas being a 1b, not exactly a position many teams struggle to fill and it’s the position more players switch to than any other. As some scouts rank not ability, but likelihood of being an impact player, the competition at 1b should impact the ranking. Doesn’t mean Casas is worse than Rafaela. Just means he plays a tougher role.

 

Bear in mind reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt, who also has three other top 3 MVP finishes, was never ranked by anyone in any top 100, despite absolutely raking throughout his entire minor league career. 1b is a tough position to get ranked sometimes…

[Old Red]

Fine, let's just go with 25x7 for arguments sake.

 

I can safely say that he'll play better than Story will over the next few years. I don't think Bogey will be worth the Padres contract, but the reported lower contract he would have accepted seems attainable. He would need to amass about 22 fWAR over the next 7 years, which seems doable.

 

And if they kept Xander for this one season, why would they necessarily have to get under the cap this season? They could still sign the same guys you mentioned, but wouldn't need Duvall and could get Turner on a 1x15M. They could just use next year to reset. Or just don't bring in Turner either and get someone cheaper in as a DH option like Jesus Aguilar or whoever. Duvall is only here because Kiké was moved to the IF because Story was moved to SS but got hurt. If Xander stays, Story stays at 2b and you Story's injury still leaves Arroyo as the starting 2B, which is where we are at anyway.

 

Good summation, and like I said we’ll never know what it would have taken to sign Bogey a year ago, because a LEGITIMATE OFFER was NEVER made.

[mvp 78]

You keep saying we don’t know what it would have taken to sign Bogey a year ago, and that is true, but the reason for that is, because Bloom never made him a legitimate offer. A 1 yr $30M ext was a joke, and Bloom was a joke it offering it. I said it then, and I’ll say it now that Bloom read the room so bad, and that is where the BOTCHED came in. Why do you think Henry has gotten Booed when he’s shown his face in public, or Bloom getting booed trying to shout down some PAYING customers? I think more than anything it’s, because of the way they handled the Bogey situation, and also that is a reason ticket sales, and sponsorship ship is lagging, because of Bogey being treated the way he was.

 

If anything, Bloom was much calmer and kinder to Sox fans than the rest of the ownership group. Not sure where you are pulling this dig out of. Sure, he had the ill advised "bets" tangent and couldn't stop saying it, but at least he comes across as honest. The thread that links Varitek lowballing to Lester lowballing to Betts lowballing to Xander lowballing isn't Bloom, but John Henry. Tom Werner, who was not on the stage, is apparently on the side of using the checkbook and spending. It's John Henry who doesn't want to go over the luxury tax. Sam Kennedy is there solely to keep John Henry in line and speak for ownership, because when Henry goes off script he ends up taking his 12 speed bike to the local radio station and acting like a bufoon.

[moonslav59]

You keep saying we don’t know what it would have taken to sign Bogey a year ago, and that is true, but the reason for that is, because Bloom never made him a legitimate offer. A 1 yr $30M ext was a joke, and Bloom was a joke it offering it. I said it then, and I’ll say it now that Bloom read the room so bad, and that is where the BOTCHED came in. Why do you think Henry has gotten Booed when he’s shown his face in public, or Bloom getting booed trying to shout down some PAYING customers? I think more than anything it’s, because of the way they handled the Bogey situation, and also that is a reason ticket sales, and sponsorship ship is lagging, because of Bogey being treated the way he was.

 

What's a "legitimate offer?" And, more importantly, would or would not Bogey have accepted it, whatever "it" would have been?

 

Those are some pretty important distinctions that creates this whole speculative debate. I get that.

 

I wish he had offered Bogey $160M/6 at the time of the Story signing and maybe $200M/7, later. I'd like to know if Bogey would have taken either offer. It would have made judging much easier, but even had these offers been made and turned down or accepted, we still won't know ifr it was good or bad for years.

 

Over and over and over again, I have agreed with you the initial $30M add-on was a slap in the face, but maybe it's all he thought he was worth. While I disagree on that assessment, we can't say "botched, Until we see if Bogey was indeed worth even that. This isn't the same as me saying I don't think he was worth that and more. I do think he was worth $160M/6 and even said $170M/6, which I think is close to what you suggested. We do not think we disagree on what we think Bogey was/is worth.

 

We disagree on saying we know, right now, if the "signing was botched."

 

1. We don't know what he'd have taken.

2. We don't know he'll be worth the very least he would have taken, let alone the most Bloom might have offered.

 

For someone who constantly blasts posters for taking positions based on speculation, like being optimistic about our farm, you sure seem to have no issue grabbing hold of a purely speculative issue in several ways and coming to a firm and immovable position that the "signing was botched."

 

It's fine having that position, and you are clearly not alone. I'd even guess the majority of Sox nation sees it pretty closely to the way you see it. I don't doubt that, and the booing just adds furl to the fire burning in the Nation.

 

I've never doubted there is a fire raging or the reasons for it burning.

 

I just disagree with the overall assessment and out of context judgements. I'm pretty sure I'm in a minority, and maybe a small one.

 

If the guys we sign do well, and Bogey does well or not so well, I don't thin it matters much. If the reverse happens, I'll be "what-iffing" along with everyone else. Let's see how it plays out before pronouncing victory or defeat.

[moonslav59]

Fine, let's just go with 25x7 for arguments sake.

 

I can safely say that he'll play better than Story will over the next few years. I don't think Bogey will be worth the Padres contract, but the reported lower contract he would have accepted seems attainable. He would need to amass about 22 fWAR over the next 7 years, which seems doable.

 

And if they kept Xander for this one season, why would they necessarily have to get under the cap this season? They could still sign the same guys you mentioned, but wouldn't need Duvall and could get Turner on a 1x15M. They could just use next year to reset. Or just don't bring in Turner either and get someone cheaper in as a DH option like Jesus Aguilar or whoever. Duvall is only here because Kiké was moved to the IF because Story was moved to SS but got hurt. If Xander stays, Story stays at 2b and you Story's injury still leaves Arroyo as the starting 2B, which is where we are at anyway.

 

I was fully in board with $25M x 7, and would still wish that happened.

 

My point is that we do NOT know he'd have ever accepted that. I think he would have at the time of the Story signing, but it's just conjecture.

 

I'm fine with arguing hypothetical scenarios, but lets just make sure that's all they are.

[Old Red]

If anything, Bloom was much calmer and kinder to Sox fans than the rest of the ownership group. Not sure where you are pulling this dig out of. Sure, he had the ill advised "bets" tangent and couldn't stop saying it, but at least he comes across as honest. The thread that links Varitek lowballing to Lester lowballing to Betts lowballing to Xander lowballing isn't Bloom, but John Henry. Tom Werner, who was not on the stage, is apparently on the side of using the checkbook and spending. It's John Henry who doesn't want to go over the luxury tax. Sam Kennedy is there solely to keep John Henry in line and speak for ownership, because when Henry goes off script he ends up taking his 12 speed bike to the local radio station and acting like a bufoon.

 

I understand that JH has always had the checkbook, but do you think JH told Bloom to just offer Bogey a 1 yr $30M ext?

[moonslav59]

Good summation, and like I said we’ll never know what it would have taken to sign Bogey a year ago, because a LEGITIMATE OFFER was NEVER made.

 

YES! YES! YES!

 

An offer was never made, except for maybe at the very end.

 

That does not mean it was "botched," unless we know what "legitimate" means AND, more importantly, if Bogey would have said yes or no. If he would have said no, we can't say it was botched, can we?

[Old Red]

I was fully in board with $25M x 7, and would still wish that happened.

 

My point is that we do NOT know he'd have ever accepted that. I think he would have at the time of the Story signing, but it's just conjecture.

 

I'm fine with arguing hypothetical scenarios, but lets just make sure that's all they are.

And once again we don’t know only, because it was never offered.

[Old Red]

YES! YES! YES!

 

An offer was never made, except for maybe at the very end.

 

That does not mean it was "botched," unless we know what "legitimate" means AND, more importantly, if Bogey would have said yes or no. If he would have said no, we can't say it was botched, can we?

And once again it was never offered, and that’s the only reason we don’t know.

[mvp 78]

If Rafaela is higher, it’s presumably due to Casas being a 1b, not exactly a position many teams struggle to fill and it’s the position more players switch to than any other. As some scouts rank not ability, but likelihood of being an impact player, the competition at 1b should impact the ranking. Doesn’t mean Casas is worse than Rafaela. Just means he plays a tougher role.

 

Bear in mind reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt, who also has three other top 3 MVP finishes, was never ranked by anyone in any top 100, despite absolutely raking throughout his entire minor league career. 1b is a tough position to get ranked sometimes…

 

Yeah, I think that impact on ranking is stupid. I agree that it happens to an extent, but it seems like Law has pushed it a little over the top in his rankings. BA and MLB Pipeline have Casas in the 20's and he's already in MLB, Law has him in the 40's. Casas already had a decent showing at the end of the MLB season last year. Rafaela's AA OBP was lower than Casas' MLB OBP. It'd be one thing if we thought Rafaela was going to make the BOS roster early on this season, but that doesn't appear to be the case. He's still got a lot of development left to do in that bat.

 

My worry with Rafaela is that people are really just saying "his defense is going to be so good that it will outweigh how low his OBP will be," but we don't really know how low it will actually be. He doesn't have the BB rate to put up a 3 fWAR JBJ season. That's good enough to be a 1.5-2 fWAR guy? That's fine, I guess? But 1.5-2 fWAR for 1B is Ryan Mountcastle who had a 106 wRC+ or Josh Bell who had a 120 wRC+ last season. Casas had a 120 wRC+ in his first sniff of the majors. Probably going to improve on that. The normal yearly outcome is going to be Casas with a higher fWAR than Rafaela because of Rafaela's lack of patience at the plate.

[notin]

I understand that JH has always had the checkbook, but do you think JH told Bloom to just offer Bogey a 1 yr $30M ext?

 

You think he didn’t? Or at least put a cap on the budget?

[notin]

Yeah, I think that impact on ranking is stupid. I agree that it happens to an extent, but it seems like Law has pushed it a little over the top in his rankings. BA and MLB Pipeline have Casas in the 20's and he's already in MLB, Law has him in the 40's. Casas already had a decent showing at the end of the MLB season last year. Rafaela's AA OBP was lower than Casas' MLB OBP. It'd be one thing if we thought Rafaela was going to make the BOS roster early on this season, but that doesn't appear to be the case. He's still got a lot of development left to do in that bat.

 

My worry with Rafaela is that people are really just saying "his defense is going to be so good that it will outweigh how low his OBP will be," but we don't really know how low it will actually be. He doesn't have the BB rate to put up a 3 fWAR JBJ season. That's good enough to be a 1.5-2 fWAR guy? That's fine, I guess? But 1.5-2 fWAR for 1B is Ryan Mountcastle who had a 106 wRC+ or Josh Bell who had a 120 wRC+ last season. Casas had a 120 wRC+ in his first sniff of the majors. Probably going to improve on that. The normal yearly outcome is going to be Casas with a higher fWAR than Rafaela because of Rafaela's lack of patience at the plate.

 

Not to mention, let’s not go and reverse position on defense and suddenly start overvaluing it. I kept hearing Evan White was the greatest defensive 1b ever. And after you’ve watched him play, it becomes impossible to differentiate his MLB counterparts from 6yo T-ballers. And then Seattle went out and extended him accordingly.

 

And now he just sort of looks like an overpaid Doug Mientkiewicz out there. I mean, no one was wrong about him being good defensively. But it turns out that when you can’t hit, sometimes even great defense just isn’t enough…

[mvp 78]

I understand that JH has always had the checkbook, but do you think JH told Bloom to just offer Bogey a 1 yr $30M ext?

 

Henry is the one who is mandating the budget and what to spend. Henry is the one who decided that Dombrowski needed to go because Dombrowski probably would have tried to retain Betts at the LA contract. When Henry went on WEEI, what did he complain about? Spending money! CC's contract that he didn't want to sign! What did Henry state was the reason for expensive ticket prices? Ballplayer salaries! Any and all contracts now have to run through that cheapskate unless there is overwhelming outside pressure.

[mvp 78]

You think he didn’t? Or at least put a cap on the budget?

 

It has to be Henry. He's the link between all these lowball offers we've seen over the years and the weird dealings. He undervalues the guys that are in house, ends up looking foolish and then has to overpay in some other manner.

[moonslav59]

And once again it was never offered, and that’s the only reason we don’t know.

 

Of course, but that still does not mean it was "botched," unless we know what offer would have been accepted, right?

 

In other words, what difference does it make, if he'd have said no, anyway?

 

Assuming the negotiations were botched because no offer was made, and apparently one was at the end, is pure speculation.

[Old Red]

Of course, but that still does not mean it was "botched," unless we know what offer would have been accepted, right?

 

We keep going around, and around on this. You only want to say we don’t know, and I give the reason why we don’t know, and that’s why I keep saying it was botched, and you continue to look the other way, and only say we don’t know, but don’t say why we don’t know. It was never offered.