Are JD and Bogey chocking with men on base?

[Bellhorn04]

Well, some of you buggers made me do this.

 

Lately JD's and Bogey's low RBI totals have become a hot topic of conversation. Several people have commented about how Verdugo is doing much better than them.

 

So let's have a look at their OPS numbers with men on base vs. total. Some may argue that RISP is a better number than men on base, but from what I saw, I liked men on base better. Those that prefer RISP, feel free to add them.

 

Verdugo

2022 Men on base .799 Total .679

Career Men on base .746 Total .768

 

JD

2022 Men on base .763 Total .869

Career Men on base .910 Total .881

 

Bogey

2022 Men on base .843 Total .834

Career Men on base .819 Total .813

 

So what conclusions can be drawn?

 

1) Verdugo is over 100 points higher with men on this year.

2) JD is over 100 points lower with men on this year.

3) Bogey is about the same, so his RBI issue lies elsewhere.

4) JD and Bogey have not been chockers over their careers.

[notin]

23 of Verdugo’s 40 RBI this year (total not counting the 6 times Verdugo has driven in himself) have been from driving in Bogaerts and Martinez…

[moonslav59]

Most PAs with men on base and PA per RBI w men on base (before game on 7/10):

 

185 Bogey 5.8 (most PAs- 2nd worst PA per RBI)

170 Dugo 3.8 (3rd best)

165 Story 3.4 (best)

165 JD M 5.7 (3rd worst)

154 Devers 3.6 (2nd best)

117 Vaz 3.8 (3rd best)

116 JBJ 4.6

110 Dalbec 7.3 (worst)

94 Kike 4.7

87 Cordero 4.1

 

Low PAs

51 Arroyo 4.6

40 Plawecki 8.0

37 Duran 7.4

28 Refsnyder 2.8 (best with any sample size)

 

 

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by moonslav59

[illinoisredsox]

Most PAs with men on base and PA per RBI w men on base:

 

185 Bogey 5.8 (most PAs- 2nd worst PA per RBI)

170 Dugo 3.8 (3rd best)

165 Story 3.4 (best)

154 Devers 3.6 (2nd best)

117 Vaz 3.8 (3rd best)

116 JBJ 4.6

110 Dalbec 7.3 (worst)

94 Kike 4.7

87 Cordero 4.1

 

Low PAs

51 Arroyo 4.6

40 Plawecki 8.0

37 Duran 7.4

28 Refsnyder 2.8 (best with any sample size)

 

 

 

 

Left off JD, who is at 166 and 4.6 (which includes tonight's homer).

[moonslav59]

Left off JD, who is at 166 and 4.6 (which includes tonight's homer).

 

Thanks.

 

I fixed it.

[Bellhorn04]

What's funny is that while JD and Bogey are getting knocked for the low RBI numbers, Story is getting knocked because his RBI total is inflated by one hot week.

[notin]

What's funny is that while JD and Bogey are getting knocked for the low RBI numbers, Story is getting knocked because his RBI total is inflated by one hot week.

 

Fans want consistency. I have no idea what they mean by that…

[notin]

3) Bogey is about the same, so his RBI issue lies elsewhere.

.[/QUote]

 

Maybe his issues are that this is simply who he is. He is on pace for 70 RBI this year, but he only had 79 last year. He did break 100 in both 2018 and 2019, but only had 62 in 2017 (635 PA).

 

How many RBI do people expect him to get? And is that number actually realistic?

[moonslav59]

What's funny is that while JD and Bogey are getting knocked for the low RBI numbers, Story is getting knocked because his RBI total is inflated by one hot week.

 

As I've pointed out, before, to those who said this...

 

If you take away everyone's "hottest week," Story is still right up there among the Sox RBI leaders.

 

Also, he had RBIs in 6 of those 7 games, and guess which 6 we won.

 

Are those 6 wins worth less than others, just because they are bunched up?

Edited July 11, 2022 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

Well, some of you buggers made me do this.

 

Lately JD's and Bogey's low RBI totals have become a hot topic of conversation. Several people have commented about how Verdugo is doing much better than them.

 

So let's have a look at their OPS numbers with men on base vs. total. Some may argue that RISP is a better number than men on base, but from what I saw, I liked men on base better. Those that prefer RISP, feel free to add them.

 

Verdugo

2022 Men on base .799 Total .679

Career Men on base .746 Total .768

 

JD

2022 Men on base .763 Total .869

Career Men on base .910 Total .881

 

Bogey

2022 Men on base .843 Total .834

Career Men on base .819 Total .813

 

So what conclusions can be drawn?

 

1) Verdugo is over 100 points higher with men on this year.

2) JD is over 100 points lower with men on this year.

3) Bogey is about the same, so his RBI issue lies elsewhere.

4) JD and Bogey have not been chockers over their careers.

 

While I admittedly have more confidence in Verdugo to get the big hit than I do in Bogaerts and JD, the only conclusion that can be drawn, IMO, is that good hitters are good hitters regardless of the situation. There are going to be stretches, maybe even entire seasons, when someone appears to be extremely clutch or appears to be a choker, but that data does not remain consistent.

 

Out of curiosity, I looked at the 2022 "Clutch" stat on each player, per Fangraphs:

 

Verdugo +.45

Kike +.36

Vazquez +.32

Franchy +.11

Devers -.05

JBJ -.40

Story -.40

Dalbec -.42

JD -.67

Bogaerts -.90

[Kimmi]

Maybe his issues are that this is simply who he is. He is on pace for 70 RBI this year, but he only had 79 last year. He did break 100 in both 2018 and 2019, but only had 62 in 2017 (635 PA).

 

How many RBI do people expect him to get? And is that number actually realistic?

 

I swear, almost every time Bogaerts is up to bat in a key situation with men on base, if he puts the ball in play, it will be a weak grounder or pop up. I don't remember many instances in which he drives the ball with a high exit velocity, outside of the recent 2 run homerun.

[moonslav59]

While I admittedly have more confidence in Verdugo to get the big hit than I do in Bogaerts and JD, the only conclusion that can be drawn, IMO, is that good hitters are good hitters regardless of the situation. There are going to be stretches, maybe even entire seasons, when someone appears to be extremely clutch or appears to be a choker, but that data does not remain consistent.

 

Out of curiosity, I looked at the 2022 "Clutch" stat on each player, per Fangraphs:

 

Verdugo +.45

Kike +.36

Vazquez +.32

Franchy +.11

Devers -.05

JBJ -.40

Story -.40

Dalbec -.42

JD -.67

Bogaerts -.90

 

I’d like to see a comp with their career norms

[Bellhorn04]

I swear, almost every time Bogaerts is up to bat in a key situation with men on base, if he puts the ball in play, it will be a weak grounder or pop up. I don't remember many instances in which he drives the ball with a high exit velocity, outside of the recent 2 run homerun.

 

I'm definitely putting you down for saying Bogey is chocking.

[Kimmi]

I’d like to see a comp with their career norms

 

Career numbers added in blue:

 

Verdugo +.45, +2.13

Kike +.36, -.91

Vazquez +.32, +1.51

Franchy +.11, +.43

Devers -.05, +.77

JBJ -.40, -4.98

Story -.40, -.40

Dalbec -.42, -.36

JD -.67, -3.66

Bogaerts -.90, +1.83

As an aside, Papi's career clutch number is -3.92.

[Kimmi]

I'm definitely putting you down for saying Bogey is chocking.

 

Haha. Well if you're going to do that, you might as well put me down for saying that Verdugo is clutch.

[mvp 78]

I swear, almost every time Bogaerts is up to bat in a key situation with men on base, if he puts the ball in play, it will be a weak grounder or pop up. I don't remember many instances in which he drives the ball with a high exit velocity, outside of the recent 2 run homerun.

 

Yaz 2.0