The Way Too Early Tear Down Thread

[mvp 78]

If you are using just advancing into the second round of any playoffs as your rubric, then yea, maybe.

 

The only measure I mentioned was wins per dollar spent and who I'd rather be a fan of. (I didn't imply my measure was the only one or the best one.)

 

As a fan, why do I care about how much money is spent per win?

[moonslav59]

What about now after getting rid of Olsen, and Chapman among others?

 

What about it? You tell me.

 

He's given one of the strictest budgets in MLB, but you guys totally ignore that context.

 

I'd hate being an A's fan watching that, but at least he got guys like Olsen and Chapman and Murphy and...

 

Would you rather watch the Pirates over the last 25 years?

[dgalehouse]

If Beane comes to Boston instead of staying in OAK after 2002, do the Red Sox still win 4 WS or 20? I think that's the question we need to find out. Also, can there be an alternate universe where Moneyball happens at Fenway and the dreadful Fever Pitch happens in East Bay with some crust punks?

 

It seems to me that every time Beane had a chance to go to a big market team , he turned it down . Why leave your low expectation comfort zone and risk being exposed as a phony genius? Now he is part owner of the failed franchise , albeit a very wealthy one. Also , I don't know what a crust punk is , but it sounds like something to avoid.

[Bellhorn04]

As a fan, why do I care about how much money is spent per win?

 

If you're an A's fan, you need something to be proud of.

[moonslav59]

As a fan, why do I care about how much money is spent per win?

 

1) The money spent per win comment was directed at the comment about the job Beane did.

 

2) The comment about rather being an A's fan than several other low spending or low performing teams has to do with them winning more games than many teams over many years and having some exciting players to watch for many years, too.

 

I think my point and distinctions were pretty clear.

[moonslav59]

If you're an A's fan, you need something to be proud of.

 

I'm not saying it's fun being an A's fan, but they have had some winning teams and exciting players over Beane's tenure- more than many teams.

 

We hear the same drivel about the Rays.

[cp176]

With nothing in return or not replacing their contracts on the budget, likely last place. IMO

 

Don't you think that it is evident that these three are greatly needed and likely greatly needed in the future? On this team, they kind of look like they stand alone. Trading any one of them for prospects or really for ever, sends a clear message. One that I am not going to like if it should happen.

[moonslav59]

Most wins since 1998

 

2269 NYY

2129 LAD

2128 BOS

2127 STL

2104 ATL

2033 OAK

2022 SFG

2009 ANA

2003 CLE

 

I guess wins only count for some posters, when it fits their narrative.

[Old Red]

Most wins since 1998

 

2269 NYY

2129 LAD

2128 BOS

2127 STL

2104 ATL

2033 OAK

2022 SFG

2009 ANA

2003 CLE

 

I guess wins only count for some posters, when it fits their narrative.

But now they are the only one on your list that is a minor league team. Are the Red Sox going to follow their lead, and sell off their best players? Stay tuned.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Old Red

[moonslav59]

Don't you think that it is evident that these three are greatly needed and likely greatly needed in the future? On this team, they kind of look like they stand alone. Trading any one of them for prospects or really for ever, sends a clear message. One that I am not going to like if it should happen.

 

I was the one saying I'd offer Betts $400M/14.

 

I'm the one posting incessantly "Devers Forevers!"

 

Of course, I want to keep as many stars as possible, but I'm a realist and recognize it's almost always an either or situation. Some, here, seem to think the solution is for Henry to open his wallet, because he can. The reality is he doesn't always do so, and the GMs are bashed when he closes his wallet and praised when he opens it, assuming they spend it well. (DD did: Ben did not.)

 

To me, it really sucked losing Betts. To me, he was the face of the franchise and a top 3 player in MLB. I thought we could make his salary work, if we lowered the AAV by making it a 14+ year deal, thereby allowing us to fill out the rest of the roster with a good supporting cast. Looking at the budgets Henry has handed down since that trade, makes me think my assumptions were wrong, and trading Betts was a forced condition of Bloom's tenure as GM. I'm fine with heated debates about what better we might have gotten for him, but trading him was forced- like it or not.

 

In theory, we could have traded Betts after 2018 and gotten a better return, but Henry and most of us felt the winning window was still open for 2019 and possibly a little longer.

 

I'm not "for" trading Bogey or losing hom for a comp pick, but if a restrictive budget is continually handed to our GM, it's not always a no-brainer to spend 1/7th of your player payroll on 1-3 players at a time.

 

Maybe, if we got the farm to the point where we could count on near constant infusions of low-cost but highly productive players, we could construct a fine supporting cast built around 2-3 $28-30+M/yr players on the roster.

 

To me, at the point we got to after 2019, trading Betts seems like it was forced, and getting 5 years of Verdugo and a couple prospects seems reasonable at best and not all that bad, at worst, when you consider it was just one season of Betts. (He wasn't coming back, whether we wished it or not.)

 

Now, we are at the crossroads on Bogey and soon with Devers, too. (JD and Big Nate to a lesser extent.) If Bloom can build a winning team without some or all of these guys, I'll be okay with it, but that won't be easy, and i won't be fun losing our beloved stars.

 

I don't know about others, but I really enjoyed the 2021 season, despite not having Betts on the roster, and there were a lot of exciting players not named Bogey or JD. (Note: I did not say Devers. To me, he is a must re-sign.)

 

I doubt we trade Bogey, and maybe even if we are 5 down at the deadline, but I'll be more apset losing him for a comp pick than a bunch of prospects or a ML player like Verdugo. Once again, context is needed but not always factored in by some. An argument can be made that these guys should have been traded earlier, if we knew all along they'd be walking, and keeping fans happy is actually hurting our chances at pro-longed winning.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

But now they are the only one on your list that is a minor league team. Are the Red Sox going to follow their lead, and sell off their best players? Stay tuned.

 

The Sox will never be a bottom 5 team spender. I'm not sure why you and otehrs keep thinking because we hired Bloom, we will become the A's or rays.

 

Did LA become the Rays, when they hired a former Ray?

 

Has the Astros become the Rays after they hired a Ray?

 

To me, we are not the Dodgers, but I think the Astros model is the one Henry hopes Bloom can create.

 

A strong farm that provides Tucker, when Springer bolts, provides Pena when Correa bolts and young talent like Alvarez and Framber Valdez to supplement a few big contracts like Verlander, Altuve & Bregman.

 

Yes, stay tuned, but not for an A's replay.

[Old Red]

The Sox will never be a bottom 5 team spender. I'm not sure why you and otehrs keep thinking because we hired Bloom, we will become the A's or rays.

 

Did LA become the Rays, when they hired a former Ray?

 

Has the Astros become the Rays after they hired a Ray?

 

To me, we are not the Dodgers, but I think the Astros model is the one Henry hopes Bloom can create.

 

A strong farm that provides Tucker, when Springer bolts, provides Pena when Correa bolts and young talent like Alvarez and Framber Valdez to supplement a few big contracts like Verlander, Altuve & Bregman.

 

Yes, stay tuned, but not for an A's replay.

Who said anything about being a bottom 5 spender? I’ll answer it for you. You did. I asked if the Red Sox are going to follow the A’s lead, and sell off their best players.

[mvp 78]

Most wins since 1998

 

2269 NYY

2129 LAD

2128 BOS

2127 STL

2104 ATL

2033 OAK

2022 SFG

2009 ANA

2003 CLE

 

I guess wins only count for some posters, when it fits their narrative.

 

Again, BILLY BEANE HAS WON ZERO ALCS GAMES SINCE BECOMING A'S GM AND HAS ONLY MADE IT THAT FAR ONCE. At some point, you need to get over that hump. Just being "competitive" and never re-signing your guys is not enjoyable. That fanbase has no hope. From the list I mentioned, I'd rather be a Mariners fan who has never made it to the playoffs (better ballpark), Twins fan (better newer ballpark and recent FA acquisition history), Toronto fan (Bichette/Vlad and money spent) and maybe even a Milwaukee fan (young stars, recent success and better ballpark).

 

So maybe the A's fans are on par with the Reds, Pirates and O's? A's are more assured of wins from time to time, but have a worse overall outlook from year to year as ownership will never pay their players, their MiLB players are treated like garbage and ownership has threatened to move the team for decades.

[Old Red]

Again, BILLY BEANE HAS WON ZERO ALCS GAMES SINCE BECOMING A'S GM AND HAS ONLY MADE IT THAT FAR ONCE. At some point, you need to get over that hump. Just being "competitive" and never re-signing your guys is not enjoyable. That fanbase has no hope. From the list I mentioned, I'd rather be a Mariners fan who has never made it to the playoffs (better ballpark), Twins fan (better newer ballpark and recent FA acquisition history), Toronto fan (Bichette/Vlad and money spent) and maybe even a Milwaukee fan (young stars, recent success and better ballpark).

 

So maybe the A's fans are on par with the Reds, Pirates and O's? A's are more assured of wins from time to time, but have a worse overall outlook from year to year as ownership will never pay their players, their MiLB players are treated like garbage and ownership has threatened to move the team for decades.

 

Good post, and we’ll said.

[mvp 78]

I'm not saying it's fun being an A's fan, but they have had some winning teams and exciting players over Beane's tenure- more than many teams.

 

We hear the same drivel about the Rays.

 

The Rays have actually made it to the World Series. The Rays have actually signed their young superstars to long term extensions.

 

If I had to pick between being a Rays fan and an A's fan it's a very easy call.

[Old Red]

The Rays have actually made it to the World Series. The Rays have actually signed their young superstars to long term extensions.

 

If I had to pick between being a Rays fan and an A's fan it's a very easy call.

 

And even with good teams the Rays don’t have many fans.

[mvp 78]

And even with good teams the Rays don’t have many fans.

 

Go compare the A's and Rays tv ratings and get back to me.

[Old Red]

Go compare the A's and Rays tv ratings and get back to me.

 

I’m just saying the Rays don’t get many fans in the stands as good as they have been, and wasn’t even talking about the A’s.

[moonslav59]

The Rays have actually made it to the World Series. The Rays have actually signed their young superstars to long term extensions.

 

If I had to pick between being a Rays fan and an A's fan it's a very easy call.

 

Yes, a very easy call.

 

The Rays were not one of the teams I was talking about when saying the A's have won more games than many higher and much higher spending teams and would have been more fun to watch over those years, until now.

 

I just made a simple point about wins per dollar spent. I never implied that was the most important measuring stick or that it had anything to do with TV Viewership or how crappy a market they play in. Hell, the A's didn't even sell out their WS games in the 70's. Neither did the Pirates.

[iortiz]

I think the Yankees are a lot better team this year then they were last year.

 

Well, I’ve read this for the last 2 decades and the Sox have won 4 WS.

 

NY?

[iortiz]

The Sox will never be a bottom 5 team spender. I'm not sure why you and otehrs keep thinking because we hired Bloom, we will become the A's or rays.

 

Did LA become the Rays, when they hired a former Ray?

 

Has the Astros become the Rays after they hired a Ray?

 

To me, we are not the Dodgers, but I think the Astros model is the one Henry hopes Bloom can create.

 

A strong farm that provides Tucker, when Springer bolts, provides Pena when Correa bolts and young talent like Alvarez and Framber Valdez to supplement a few big contracts like Verlander, Altuve & Bregman.

 

Yes, stay tuned, but not for an A's replay.

I don’t see why not we can’t spend and operate like Friedman does in LA. We absolutely can.

 

I can easily see a replica in BOS under Bloom’s management.

[moonslav59]

I don’t see why not we can’t spend and operate like Friedman does in LA. We absolutely can.

 

I can easily see a replica in BOS under Bloom’s management.

 

Henry can or may spend like LAD, someday, but until I see it starting to happen, I’m going on the assumption we will continue staying near the lux tax line and occasionally resetting and staying under for a couple years here and there.

 

It would certainly be much easier to stay competitive by filling more slots with higher priced free agents, but it seems clear there have been limits, and our GMs have faced many either or choices. I expect that will continue.

 

That being said, continuing on as a top 5 or 6 spending team should allow our GM enough flexibility to keep the team competitive from year to year, as long as he maintains a balance between the here and now and the extended future.

[mvp 78]

I don’t see why not we can’t spend and operate like Friedman does in LA. We absolutely can.

 

I can easily see a replica in BOS under Bloom’s management.

 

It just takes a while to get there. Some fans need to be a little more patient.

[moonslav59]

It just takes a while to get there. Some fans need to be a little more patient.

 

One barrier to getting to the point where the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees are, at the moment, is building a formidable and deep farm within the structure of a draft and international free agent system that makes it much more difficult for winning and high spending teams to acquire top young talent than the previous systems in place.

 

This was a major reason I felt it would be very difficult for the Sox to get back to being serious and long term contenders, quickly.

 

I thought some posters were being disingenuous by saying things like “we’ll build the farm back up and sign some free agents to fill in the gaps.” As it turned out, I was wrong. With the help of some shrewd picks and IFA signings by DD, our farm was better off than I knew back in 2018-2019. Maybe better than most thought they were. The last place finish in2020 gave us some top picks. That helped, too.

 

I still think our farm is not at the level the Astros, Dodgers, Rays and others have been at for several seasons, now, but I see hope we are on the right path to getting a farm we can depend on for low cost, quality infusions of talent on a consistent basis.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dodgers, Astros, TB and even the Yanks have renewable fonts of talent. Every year they trade off top talent or graduate top talent and the next year they’ve still got big top 100 talent right behind it. The Sox don’t have that at this point. You’ve got top talent with Mayer, Bello and Casas, but you don’t have the pipeline to this point, that renews that talent. It’ll come. Bloom is building that

[notin]

It just takes a while to get there. Some fans need to be a little more patient.

 

Why?!??

 

I was real patient with Game of Thrones. How did THAT turn out?!

[mvp 78]

Why?!??

 

I was real patient with Game of Thrones. How did THAT turn out?!

 

You know nothing. There's going to be a Jon Snow spin off.

[moonslav59]

Dodgers, Astros, TB and even the Yanks have renewable fonts of talent. Every year they trade off top talent or graduate top talent and the next year they’ve still got big top 100 talent right behind it. The Sox don’t have that at this point. You’ve got top talent with Mayer, Bello and Casas, but you don’t have the pipeline to this point, that renews that talent. It’ll come. Bloom is building that

 

1) Not all those teams "trade off" top talent. (The Astros lose them to free agency.)

2) The Sox pipeline is rapidly improving, and I believe some sites have our farm higher ranked than the Yanks.

3) Our farm is deeper than Mayer, Casas and Bello, and we have some very promising far away prospects that promise an extended pipeline.

 

Now or soon:

Duran, Winckowski, Seabold, German, Fitzy, Crawford, Wong, RHern

 

By 2023:

Casas

Bello

Mata

Murphy

Downs, Groome, Koss, Hamilton

 

By 2024:

Yorke

Rafaela

Walter

Binelas

Lugo, McDonough, Ward

 

By 2025 or beyond:

Bleis

Song

W Gonzalez

Paulino

Jordan, Hickey, Kavadas, Bonaci

 

[notin]

You know nothing. There's going to be a Jon Snow spin off.

 

But no movie for Hot Pie?

[Larry Cook]

Dodgers, Astros, TB and even the Yanks have renewable fonts of talent. Every year they trade off top talent or graduate top talent and the next year they’ve still got big top 100 talent right behind it. The Sox don’t have that at this point. You’ve got top talent with Mayer, Bello and Casas, but you don’t have the pipeline to this point, that renews that talent. It’ll come. Bloom is building that

 

Those teams (and add the braves in as well) do an incredible job of:

 

First- evaluating potential prospect in terms of how the potential prospect would fit their systems.

Second - developing the prospects they acquire, regardless of position.

Third - trading off prospects that don’t have a proper path or profile for their major league team.

 

Hang’em Chaim and staff have shown a tremendous scouting eye on contact and power hitters. Our minor league system is fairly deep in those areas.

 

The Sox minor league rebuild is years from being complete, but, I think, well ahead of where I thought we could get in a few short years.