5/19 vs M's

[mvp 78]

Hill vs Kirby

[Thunder]

The difference in temperature at Fenway this weekend has to be some kind of record for one series. Under 60 tonight and then 95 (potentially closer to 100) on Saturday

[moonslav59]

The difference in temperature at Fenway this weekend has to be some kind of record for one series. Under 60 tonight and then 95 (potentially closer to 100) on Saturday

 

Time for the bats to explode. (Hopefully, just ours!)

[Thunder]

Time for the bats to explode. (Hopefully, just ours!)

 

When I was at the game on Monday I noticed that the wind was blowing straight out, so I assume that was the case on Tuesday. If you pair that with Nate being a fly ball pitcher, it's not hard to understand why the Astros teed off on him. We have definitely turned a corner now (I know I've been saying it since last weekend but going 3 straight series without a series loss is progress), so I'm not worried about our bats. When it gets hot and humid up here, the wind does down considerably, but the ball naturally travels farther in the heat. I guess it comes down to whichever team is better hydrated!

[moonslav59]

When I was at the game on Monday I noticed that the wind was blowing straight out, so I assume that was the case on Tuesday. If you pair that with Nate being a fly ball pitcher, it's not hard to understand why the Astros teed off on him. We have definitely turned a corner now (I know I've been saying it since last weekend but going 3 straight series without a series loss is progress), so I'm not worried about our bats. When it gets hot and humid up here, the wind does down considerably, but the ball naturally travels farther in the heat. I guess it comes down to whichever team is better hydrated!

 

I think Dalbec and Kike seem to be warm weather hitters, despite Bobby Dee's low July numbers in his short ML career.

 

Kike hit .949 in July and .926 in Aug, last year.

 

Was it warm in October?

 

Bobby Dee's best career months are AUG 1.170 and SEPT .947.

 

Vaz is bad every month, but his best 2 are .706 in July and .753 in Sept. (.676 is close in AUG to his 3rd best month.)

 

Story's best 3 months:

.901 SEP

.900 AUG

.869 JUL

He literally gets better every month: .794>.818>,845>.860>.900>.901

[Thunder]

I don't remember it being overly cold here in October last year. My birthday was the day of game 2 of the ALCS and it was warm enough to eat lunch outside with my parents in shorts. You could be onto something there.

[moonslav59]

I don't remember it being overly cold here in October last year. My birthday was the day of game 2 of the ALCS and it was warm enough to eat lunch outside with my parents in shorts. You could be onto something there.

 

I'm not sure its about the ball travelling better in warm weather. Our pitching didn't seem to get worse with the heat.

[harmony]

Last year the Seattle Mariners split a four-game series at Fenway Park, outscoring the Red Sox 23-16, with a rotation of Justin Dunn, Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Flexen and Nick Margevicius.

 

This year the Mariners send George Kirby, Robbie Ray, Flexen and Logan Gilbert to the mound.

 

Should be an interesting series.

[moonslav59]

Are we ever going to face a lefty, again?

 

They have Dalbec in the line-up vs this righty...

 

1. Kike

2. Devers

3. JD

4. Bogey

5. Verdugo

6. Story

7. Dalbec

8. Vazquez

9. JBJ

 

Rich Hill on the mound vs RHP George Kirby.

 

Our bottom of the line-up may be weak, but the M's have some low BAs tonight:

 

5. Suarez .209

6. Torrens .193

7. Toro .167

8. Moore .161

9. Aouza .200

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Just did some offensive calculations for this season as of today.

 

The combined BA's of Devers, JD, and Bogie calculate to .334. (407 AB's/136 HITS)

The combined BA's of everyone else who's batted for the SOX calculate to .190. (848 AB's/161 HITS)

 

The 4th highest BA on the SOX with 40 or more at bats belongs to VAZ at .225.

Edited May 19, 2022 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[harmony]

Our bottom of the line-up may be weak, but the M's have some low BAs tonight:

 

5. Suarez .209

6. Torrens .193

7. Toro .167

8. Moore .161

9. Aouza .200

FWIW Eugenio Suarez has a wRC+ of 126 and is on pace for 4+ fWAR.

 

The Seattle Mariners are sixth in the league with a team wRC+ of 110 while the Red Sox are 11th in the league with a team wRC+ of 89:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=17,d

[Thunder]

Last year the Seattle Mariners split a four-game series at Fenway Park, outscoring the Red Sox 23-16, with a rotation of Justin Dunn, Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Flexen and Nick Margevicius.

 

This year the Mariners send George Kirby, Robbie Ray, Flexen and Logan Gilbert to the mound.

 

Should be an interesting series.

 

I sat through the game in which Flexen completely locked us down

[harmony]

I sat through the game in which Flexen completely locked us down

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS202104240.shtml

 

In an Over the Monster podcast today, Chris Flexen is referred to as a "below-average" pitcher:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/5/19/23126274/boston-red-sox-podcast-houston-astros-nick-pivetta-complete-game-seattle-mariners-preview

 

... which perhaps Flexen has been this season after posting a 3.61 ERA in 179.2 innings last year as a back-of-rotation starter:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-flexen/13896/stats?position=P

Edited May 19, 2022 by harmony

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Based on Team BA and Runs scored, these two teams are almost identical.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Based on pitching the SOX team ERA is 3.79. The M's team ERA is 3.82.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

So based on team comparisons, I see all 4 games going extra innings.

[harmony]

Based on pitching the SOX team ERA is 3.79. The M's team ERA is 3.82.

The Red Sox have a team ERA+ of 106 while the Mariners have a team ERA+ of 96:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022.shtml

[harmony]

So based on team comparisons, I see all 4 games going extra innings.

The Red Sox needed an extra inning to take last year's seven-game season series:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA202109150.shtml

 

This in-attendance fan was heartbroken when a Jarred Kelenic drive landed just foul with a runner on second base in the bottom of the ninth inning.

Edited May 19, 2022 by harmony

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

The Red Sox needed an extra inning to take last year's seven-game season series:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA202109150.shtml

 

This in-attendance fan was heartbroken when a Jarred Kelenic drive landed just foul with a runner on second base in the bottom of the ninth inning.

 

Baseball is a game of inches in every facet of the game.

[Old Red]

Does it make everyone feel good that Kike has a 6 game hitting streak?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Better take Hill out before his 78 game streak is broken.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Does it make everyone feel good that Kike has a 6 game hitting streak?

 

Who's Kike? Oh, you mean Pops.

[vegasbob]

The good thing about surrending a 3 run jack to a light hitter is that there is no one on base for the next guy to drive in, except himself. That was an unfortunate pitch by RHill.

[Old Red]

Who's Kike? Oh, you mean Pops.

 

Yea Pop ups.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Thanks to Nick, the BP should be well rested. And the 78 game streak comes to an end.

[bmattioli]

Someone go wake up Cora..

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Btw, Rich Hill's number 44 is sacred here in Syracuse, NY. It was worn at Syracuse University by Jim Brown, Ernie Davis and Floyd Little. The number was retired after the 1998 football season. Rob Konrad was the last player to wear it. Edited May 19, 2022 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[Old Red]

Story Land is open tonight.

[vegasbob]

Maybe Story is becoming legit and producing runs, now at 18 rbi's

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Storylike HR!