A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

The funny thing is, if they do sign an extension with Bogey, you know what the reaction of a lot of Sox fans will be...

 

"Nice, but what about Devers?"

 

As it should be.

[mvp 78]

The funny thing is, if they do sign an extension with Bogey, you know what the reaction of a lot of Sox fans will be...

 

"Nice, but what about Devers?"

 

We want that package deal. Buy One Get One.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bogey and Devers are two different camps. Bogey is going to play the first season under his new contract at 30. He is a career -59 DRS as a SS and already -4 for 2022. This is his last big contract and he wants to be paid like the other prime SS's. This means committing 8-10 years to a player at prime position price for a player who should be moved off the position now.

 

Devers will be 3 years younger in the first year of his new deal and while he's been abhorrent defensively as a 3b, he has lost some weight and has a 0 DRS for 2022. If he can keep the weight off and be a true average 3b, he will have a chance of staying there for the first half of his next contract. Also, a 3b vs a 1b pay wise isnt the same as a SS vs a 1b, so if Devers does fill out and needs to move across the diamond, it isn't that big of a deal. Devers is the more dynamic offensive player, also, and a guy who's got a good chance of being worth the price of the contract through the first half of the deal

Edited May 19, 2022 by jacksonianmarch

[moonslav59]

Story over Bogey seems like another bad Bloom trade to me, which is pretty much what it would be. After all Bogey has done in a Red Sox uniform, and is still doing, and Story hasn’t done a damm thing in Boston. Colorado is a long ways from Boston, and just not in miles, and yet some have been enamored with Story since the signing.

 

I'm not sure of anyone praising Story. If Bogey ends up getting over $200M, it's not a straight up "trade."

 

I questioned the signing, at the time, but to me, it seems obvious he was signed to replace Bogey- like it or not. I'm sure this choice will be hotly debated for years to come, and how well each do, going forward will likely swing the debate in one direction.

[notin]

Nobody should give Bogaerts an 8-10 year deal. I’d be very surprised if he gets one.

 

The one thing working for him is his carrying skill is hit bat, which is capable of moving to 1b or DH at some point. But even then, if he is asking for 8-10 years, the Sox are wise to let him test the market..,

[moonslav59]

Bogey and Devers are two different camps. Bogey is going to play the first season under his new contract at 30. He is a career -59 DRS as a SS and already -4 for 2022. This is his last big contract and he wants to be paid like the other prime SS's. This means committing 8-10 years to a player at prime position price for a player who should be moved off the position now.

 

Devers will be 3 years younger in the first year of his new deal and while he's been abhorrent defensively as a 3b, he has lost some weight and has a 0 DRS for 2022. If he can keep the weight off and be a true average 3b, he will have a chance of staying there for the first half of his next contract. Also, a 3b vs a 1b pay wise isnt the same as a SS vs a 1b, so if Devers does fill out and needs to move across the diamond, it isn't that big of a deal. Devers is the more dynamic offensive player, also, and a guy who's got a good chance of being worth the price of the contract through the first half of the deal

 

Many 1Bmen get paid big bucks.

 

Devers is a great hitter, and playing 3B at an average to below average level vs playing SS at a below average level is actually a plus in Devers' favor.

 

DEVERS FOREVERS!!!

 

[moonslav59]

Nobody should give Bogaerts an 8-10 year deal. I’d be very surprised if he gets one.

 

The one thing working for him is his carrying skill is hit bat, which is capable of moving to 1b or DH at some point. But even then, if he is asking for 8-10 years, the Sox are wise to let him test the market..,

 

I'm thinking, he might move to 3B or 2B, later in his career, where his hit toll translates better than at 1B.

[notin]

We want that package deal. Buy One Get One.

 

And to live in a world where Bogaerts’ offer is a factor in Devers’ decision…

[notin]

I'm thinking, he might move to 3B or 2B, later in his career, where his hit toll translates better than at 1B.

 

Or OF. If he gets 8-10 years he might play multiple positions over that time frame…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bogey and Devers are two different camps. Bogey is going to play the first season under his new contract at 30. He is a career -59 DRS as a SS and already -4 for 2022. This is his last big contract and he wants to be paid like the other prime SS's. This means committing 8-10 years to a player at prime position price for a player who should be moved off the position now.

 

Devers will be 3 years younger in the first year of his new deal and while he's been abhorrent defensively as a 3b, he has lost some weight and has a 0 DRS for 2022. If he can keep the weight off and be a true average 3b, he will have a chance of staying there for the first half of his next contract. Also, a 3b vs a 1b pay wise isnt the same as a SS vs a 1b, so if Devers does fill out and needs to move across the diamond, it isn't that big of a deal. Devers is the more dynamic offensive player, also, and a guy who's got a good chance of being worth the price of the contract through the first half of the deal

 

This is a decent assessment, although Devers has markedly improved defensively. His throws are now consistent, and people in the industry are recognizing him more as the total force that he is.

 

I could less about OPS -- because walks aren't as good as hits -- but the two best hitters in the AL so far have been Judge and Devers. If you look at Actual Extra Bases on hits -- Total Bases minus Hits (any bases reached beyond first) -- Judge has 49, Devers 48. But Judge has twice as many HRs, so Devers actually has more XBHs.

 

Judge may have more pop-ups to RF in NY, but Devers has been cracking the ball in every direction and ballpark.

[jacksonianmarch]

Judge has 8HR's on the road and 6 at home this year. So how many of those pop ups are we talking about?

[mvp 78]

Bogey and Devers are two different camps. Bogey is going to play the first season under his new contract at 30. He is a career -59 DRS as a SS and already -4 for 2022. This is his last big contract and he wants to be paid like the other prime SS's. This means committing 8-10 years to a player at prime position price for a player who should be moved off the position now.

 

Devers will be 3 years younger in the first year of his new deal and while he's been abhorrent defensively as a 3b, he has lost some weight and has a 0 DRS for 2022. If he can keep the weight off and be a true average 3b, he will have a chance of staying there for the first half of his next contract. Also, a 3b vs a 1b pay wise isnt the same as a SS vs a 1b, so if Devers does fill out and needs to move across the diamond, it isn't that big of a deal. Devers is the more dynamic offensive player, also, and a guy who's got a good chance of being worth the price of the contract through the first half of the deal

 

I don't think Xander is getting an 8 year deal. I think Devers will get an 8 year deal.

[mvp 78]

Nobody should give Bogaerts an 8-10 year deal. I’d be very surprised if he gets one.

 

The one thing working for him is his carrying skill is hit bat, which is capable of moving to 1b or DH at some point. But even then, if he is asking for 8-10 years, the Sox are wise to let him test the market..,

 

Yes, I'd probably just move him to LF.

[mvp 78]

And to live in a world where Bogaerts’ offer is a factor in Devers’ decision…

 

A world where there is a press conference where they both re-sign on the same day.

[mvp 78]

Judge has 8HR's on the road and 6 at home this year. So how many of those pop ups are we talking about?

 

And according to Statcast, he'd be better off playing in Cincinnati or Philadelphia.

 

Judge is a big man. He hits the ball a long way. I'm not sure there's much of a Yankee Stadium 3 effect for him.

[jacksonianmarch]

And according to Statcast, he'd be better off playing in Cincinnati or Philadelphia.

 

Judge is a big man. He hits the ball a long way. I'm not sure there's much of a Yankee Stadium 3 effect for him.

 

Judge is finally doing what he should have been doing all along. I never understand when these behemoth hitters outwardly try to pull everything. Judge and Stanton can hit the ball out to any part of any park. Judge got pull happy the last few years and was still productive. Now, he's not pulling much of anything. Almost all his HRs are to CF and RCF. That is very dangerous for opposing pitchers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Judge has 8HR's on the road and 6 at home this year. So how many of those pop ups are we talking about?

 

Looks like 6. Hey, I'm the one who said he's the best hitter in the league this year.

 

But I also value batting average, which analytics dismiss as an overrated stat. To me, the percentage of hits in at bats when a batter swings matters -- because putting the ball in play forces the D to react, and driving it in the gaps or over them advances baserunners.

 

So let's add Actual Extra Bases to Batting Averages for an Overall Hit Score: Judge 49 + .306 BA = 355; Devers 48 + .340 = 388.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Xander is getting an 8 year deal. I think Devers will get an 8 year deal.

 

Agreed. I don't think any GM offers Bogey 8+ years. He may not even get a 7 year offer.

 

If he was a great defensive SS, he would get it.

[moonslav59]

Looks like 6. Hey, I'm the one who said he's the best hitter in the league this year.

 

But I also value batting average, which analytics dismiss as an overrated stat. To me, the percentage of hits in at bats when a batter swings matters -- because putting the ball in play forces the D to react, and driving it in the gaps or over them advances baserunners.

 

So let's add Actual Extra Bases to Batting Averages for an Overall Hit Score: Judge 49 + .306 BA = 355; Devers 48 + .340 = 388.

 

Devers has 13 XBHs to Judges 21, but since Judge walks more, he has 19 less ABs.

 

Why not just use SLG%?

 

.721 Ward

.689 Trout

.672 Judge

.634 Harper

.617 Chisholm

.603 Cron

.597 Arenado

.588 Devers

 

11. JD .564

13. Stanton .538

28. Bogey .482

[MADSTORK]

Where did I even come close to saying I want to sign JD?

 

Brush up on your reading comp skills.

 

BTW, I'm surprised to see a Stork sighting after a win.

 

 

Lol

 

You have to admit it’s nice to see the training wheels off these starting pitchers? Let the starters pitch! There is no reason for pitch counts, how many times u face the lineup and all this analytical bullish!t.

Let the men pitch

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Devers has 13 XBHs to Judges 21, but since Judge walks more, he has 19 less ABs.

 

Why not just use SLG%?

 

.721 Ward

.689 Trout

.672 Judge

.634 Harper

.617 Chisholm

.603 Cron

.597 Arenado

.588 Devers

 

11. JD .564

13. Stanton .538

28. Bogey .482

 

Slugging is a good metric, and by all percentages Ward is far ahead of everyone. But he's also only had two-thirds of the at bats of Devers. That's why Rafey (and Judge) lead in Actual Extra Bases on hits. They're ahead of Trout and Harper, too.

[moonslav59]

Lol

 

You have to admit it’s nice to see the training wheels off these starting pitchers? Let the starters pitch! There is no reason for pitch counts, how many times u face the lineup and all this analytical bullish!t.

Let the men pitch

 

I've been arguing that Hill and Wacha have better histories than Eovaldi and Pivetta the 3rd time through a line-up, and to let them go deeper, but now Wacha is on the IL.

 

They did let Hill go 6 innings, finally!

[moonslav59]

Slugging is a good metric, and by all percentages Ward is far ahead of everyone. But he's also only had two-thirds of the at bats of Devers. That's why Rafey (and Judge) lead in Actual Extra Bases on hits. They're ahead of Trout and Harper, too.

 

Trout has 22 XBHs. Judge 21, according to fangraphs.

[notin]

Looks like 6. Hey, I'm the one who said he's the best hitter in the league this year.

 

But I also value batting average, which analytics dismiss as an overrated stat. To me, the percentage of hits in at bats when a batter swings matters -- because putting the ball in play forces the D to react, and driving it in the gaps or over them advances baserunners.

 

So let's add Actual Extra Bases to Batting Averages for an Overall Hit Score: Judge 49 + .306 BA = 355; Devers 48 + .340 = 388.

 

 

1. That’s not what batting average measures. It measures the percentage of time a batter gets a hit in a plate appearance in which he does not walk, get hit by a pitch, voluntarily give himself up by bunting to move a runner over, or hit a reasonably deep fly ball with a runner on third and less than two out.

 

2. 49 + .306 does not equal .355. It equals 49.306.

 

3. If you want XBH to be incorporated with BA, that’s exactly what SLG does…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1. That’s not what batting average measures. It measures the percentage of time a batter gets a hit in a plate appearance in which he does not walk, get hit by a pitch, voluntarily give himself up by bunting to move a runner over, or hit a reasonably deep fly ball with a runner on third and less than two out.

 

2. 49 + .306 does not equal .355. It equals 49.306.

 

3. If you want XBH to be incorporated with BA, that’s exactly what SLG does…

 

 

 

1): MLB.com: "batting average is determined by dividing a player's hits by his total at-bats"

 

2): I knew I'd get corrected on a statistic that I made up for my own evaluations...

 

3)... slugging percentage = total bases divided by at bats... but like I said, I subtracted total hits from total bases, to find actual extra bases touched beyond first base (which isn't actually extra).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Here are legit questions I'm not sure of for stat-minded posters:

 

if a batter has an OBP of .500, does that mean he reaches base via hit, walk or hbp in half his plate appearances?

 

if he has a slugging percentage of .500, does that mean he averages touching half a base in every at bat?

 

if you add OBP and SLG and get an OPS over 1, does that mean he averages at least a base every single time up?

 

how can they combine one stat that considers PA with another that only uses ABs?

[notin]

1): MLB.com: "batting average is determined by dividing a player's hits by his total at-bats"

 

2): I knew I'd get corrected on a statistic that I made up for my own evaluations...

 

3)... slugging percentage = total bases divided by at bats... but like I said, I subtracted total hits from total bases, to find actual extra bases touched beyond first base (which isn't actually extra).

 

 

1. You talked about swinging the bat in your definition of BA. A batter does not need to swing to be credited with an at bat.

 

3. ISO (Isolated Power) is the stat you’re looking for. It’s SLG minus BA, and removes the dependency on singles from a hitters profile. Fangraphs has it on their tables. B-R (I believe) does not…

[moonslav59]

Here are legit questions I'm not sure of for stat-minded posters:

 

if a batter has an OBP of .500, does that mean he reaches base via hit, walk or hbp in half his plate appearances?

 

if he has a slugging percentage of .500, does that mean he averages touching half a base in every at bat?

 

if you add OBP and SLG and get an OPS over 1, does that mean he averages at least a base every single time up?

 

how can they combine one stat that considers PA with another that only uses ABs?

 

It certainly has flaws, but to me it's not the AB and PA thing. It counts singles twice and BBs once, and they are hardly worth double.

 

OBP is still a very important stat as related to scoring runs, despite the new trend that seemingly steers away from it.

SLG is very important, too.

 

Adding the two makes sense, to me, despite it's flaws. It's easy and counts two major run scoring factors.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1. You talked about swinging the bat in your definition of BA. A batter does not need to swing to be credited with an at bat.

 

3. ISO (Isolated Power) is the stat you’re looking for. It’s SLG minus BA, and removes the dependency on singles from a hitters profile. Fangraphs has it on their tables. B-R (I believe) does not…

 

Thanks. Here's what I found on MLB (I was kinda paraphrasing it):

 

Definition

ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits -- and the type of extra-base hit -- into account.

 

For example, a player who goes 1-for-5 with a double has an ISO of .200. A player who goes 2-for-5 with a single and a double has a higher batting average than the first player, but the same ISO of .200.

 

The formula

(1x2B + 2x3B + 3xHR) / At-bats OR Slugging percentage - Batting average

 

Why it's useful

By focusing strictly on extra-base hits, ISO can help evaluate the raw power a player has.

[moonslav59]

Thanks. Here's what I found on MLB (I was kinda paraphrasing it):

 

Definition

ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits -- and the type of extra-base hit -- into account.

 

For example, a player who goes 1-for-5 with a double has an ISO of .200. A player who goes 2-for-5 with a single and a double has a higher batting average than the first player, but the same ISO of .200.

 

The formula

(1x2B + 2x3B + 3xHR) / At-bats OR Slugging percentage - Batting average

 

Why it's useful

By focusing strictly on extra-base hits, ISO can help evaluate the raw power a player has.

 

This is very useful, but like all stats, it is flawed, too.

 

It does not take into account a batter's baserunning skills, pitchers faced or park dimensions and opposing defense levels.

 

I like ISO, though, but I rarely quote the numbers. I don't think many care about the stat.